2007 UFE Analysis Report

Document Sample

```					   UFE 2007 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load Profiling
ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation

1              UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Basics

    UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:
UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)

Sources of UFE include:
■ Generation Measurement Errors
■ Load    - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error
- Load Profile ID Assignment Error
- Theft
■ Losses - Model Error
- Loss Code Assignment Error

       Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
2                        UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Basics

Net Generation for      GAP - - - - - - >           UFE
Settlement Interval                               Losses:
Transmission & Distribution

Net Generation        Profiled Energy Usage
Compared to            Non-Interval Data
Load Buildup          Non-Metered Accounts

Interval Data
Energy Usage

3                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
OVERVIEW OF THE SETTLEMENT
PROCESS

UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial Settlement
(posted on day 10 after the
operating day)                                  Final

Final Settlement
(posted on day 60 after the
operating day)
True-up Settlement (posted
6 months after operating                      Settlement
day)
Resettlement statement
(posted as needed)
Initial                         True-Up

4                            UFE 2007 Analysis
Load Weighted Calculation of MCPE
   Market Clearing Price for Energy (MCPE) is the highest
price by Congestion Zone for a Settlement Interval for
Balancing Energy deployed during the Settlement Interval.
   In 2007 there were 4 congestion zones – H07, N07, S07
and W07.
   The load weighted MCPE is calculated for each 15 min.
interval using the LCMZone cuts as follows:
MCPE_LWTD =
((LCMZone_H07_MWh * MCPEL_H07) +
(LCMZone_N07_MWh * MCPEL_N07) +
(LCMZone_S07_MWh * MCPEL_S07) +
(LCMZone_W07_MWh * MCPEL_W07)) /
(LCMZone_H07_MWh + LCMZone_N07_MWh +
LCMZone_S07_MWh + LCMZone_W07_MWh)

5                       UFE 2007 Analysis
Events that Influenced 2007 UFE

   Annual validation 2006 was completed
resulting in some changes to Profile ID
assignments.
   New profile models were implemented,
effective May 15, 2007.
   Transmission and distribution loss factors
were updated in March 2007. Transmission
losses are based on a March - February year.
   The ERCOT region experienced unusually
cool temperatures during the summer.

6                   UFE 2007 Analysis
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007
Initial Settlement

ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007
Initial Settlement
16000                                                                                             4

14000
3

12000
2

10000
Percent UFE                 1

8000

Percent
MWH

0
6000

-1
4000

-2
2000
UFE
-3
0

-2000                                                                                             -4
1   9   17    25      33     41      49             57   65   73       81         89

Interval

SR01                                                                                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
7
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007
Final Settlement

ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007
Final Settlement
16000                                                                                       4

14000                                                                                       3

12000
2

10000
1
Percent UFE
8000

Percent
MWH

0
6000

-1
4000

-2
2000
UFE
0                                                                                        -3

-2000                                                                                       -4
1   9   17    25      33     41      49       57    65      73     81       89
Interval

SR02                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
8
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007
True Up Settlement

ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007
True Up Settlement
16000                                                                                       4

14000
3

12000
2

10000
1
Percent UFE
8000

Percent
MWH

0
6000

-1
4000

-2
2000

UFE
-3
0

-2000                                                                                       -4
1   9   17    25      33     41      49            57   65   73    81       89
Interval

SR03                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
9
UFE MWh by Month in 2007
Initial Settlement
1,000,000

Annual UFE = 2,961,951 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 6,337,681 MWh
800,000

600,000

400,000
MWh

200,000

0

-200,000

-400,000
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May     Jun    Jul      Aug    Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec

UFE     ABS UFE

SR04                                                                                                  UFE 2007 Analysis
10
UFE Cost by Month in 2007
Initial Settlement
60,000,000
Annual UFE Cost = \$227,272,405
ABS Annual UFE Cost = \$378,009,935
50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000
Dollars

20,000,000

10,000,000

0

-10,000,000

-20,000,000
Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr   May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep      Oct    Nov      Dec

UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)     UFE Cost     ABS UFE Cost

SR05                                                                                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
11
UFE MWh by Month in 2007
Final Settlement
700,000
Annual UFE = 2,951,100 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 4,907,167 MWh
600,000

500,000

400,000
MWh

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May    Jun   Jul       Aug    Sep    Oct     Nov       Dec

UFE    ABS UFE

SR06                                                                                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
12
UFE Cost by Month in 2007
Final Settlement
35,000,000
Annual UFE Cost = \$208,845,508
ABS Annual UFE Cost = \$296,806,619
30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000
Dollars

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0

-5,000,000
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul    Aug      Sep    Oct    Nov      Dec

UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)       UFE Cost    ABS UFE Cost

SR07                                                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
13
UFE MWh by Month in 2007
True-Up Settlement
700,000
Annual UFE = 2,914,297 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 4,889,496 MWh
600,000

500,000

400,000
MWh

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug      Sep    Oct     Nov      Dec

UFE   ABS UFE

SR08                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
14
UFE Cost by Month in 2007
True-UP Settlement
35,000,000
Annual UFE Cost = \$206,949,832
ABS Annual UFE Cost = \$295,744,239
30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000
Dollars

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0

-5,000,000
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May    Jun   Jul    Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov       Dec

UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)       UFE Cost     ABS UFE Cost

SR09                                                                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
15
ABS UFE MWh by Month in 2007
Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
900,000

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000
MWh

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May       Jun           Jul     Aug     Sep   Oct   Nov     Dec

Initial         Final         True Up

SR09a                                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
16
ABS UFE Cost by Month in 2007
Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements
60,000,000

50,000,000

40,000,000
Dollars

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May       Jun    Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov     Dec

UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)          Initial   Final    True Up

SR09b                                                                                              UFE 2007 Analysis
17
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN        MEDIAN      MIN     MAX     STD DEV
2002   31,980       30,107   19,209   55,703      7,437
2003   32,489       30,824   19,282   59,992      7,546
2004   32,909       31,162   20,231   58,528      7,448
2005   34,155       31,901   20,482   60,272      8,452
2006   34,884       32,707   21,223   62,430      8,508
2007   35,008       33,324   21,701   62,250      7,470
FINAL
2002   32,002       30,116   19,211   56,233      7,467
2003   32,517       30,850   19,292   59,996      7,562
2004   32,917       31,166   20,231   58,531      7,445
2005   34,161       31,911   20,486   60,270      8,454
2006   34,899       32,716   21,225   62,434      8,502
2007   35,016       33,332   21,715   62,265      7,471
TRUE-UP
2002   32,052       30,142   19,266   56,248      7,479
2003   32,532       30,865   19,310   60,095      7,571
2004   32,917       31,166   20,231   58,531      7,445
2005   34,162       31,912   20,490   60,274      8,453
2006   34,902       32,722   21,225   62,434      8,502
2007   35,016       33,330   21,712   62,265      7,471
SR10                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN       MEDIAN        MIN     MAX     STD DEV
2002   -2,176       -2,228     -6,969   5,673      1,572
2003    -314            -400   -3,906   3,798      1,003
2004      67              -9   -4,558   4,559       792
UFE (MW)
2005      75             45    -5,537   3,538       881
2006     110             69    -2,957   4,543       877
2007     338            305    -4,000   6,666       900
FINAL
2002   -1,624       -1,598     -5,954   3,427      1,147
2003       -6           -119   -3,172   3,728       891
2004     130             56    -3,929   4,302       721
UFE (MW)
2005     118             77    -4,199   3,163       750
2006     257            220    -2,288   3,351       707
2007     337            305    -3,068   3,972       644
TRUE-UP
2002    -456            -553   -3,371   3,803       898
2003     192             72    -2,886   4,065       857
2004     153             83    -3,879   4,299       719
UFE (MW)
2005     124             82    -4,155   3,190       750
2006     263            225    -2,296   3,332       706
2007     333            300    -3,076   3,975       643
SR11a                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN      MEDIAN     MIN   MAX     STD DEV
2002   2,321       2,257      0   6,969      1,348
2003    857           759     0   3,906       607
2004    606           472     0   4,559       515
|UFE| (MW)
2005    649           491     0   5,537       600
2006    673           528     0   4,543       574
2007    723           562     0   6,666       633
FINAL
2002   1,696       1,601      0   5,954      1,038
2003    707           599     0   3,728       542
2004    550           414     0   4,302       484
|UFE| (MW)
2005    567           426     0   4,199       505
2006    574           449     0   3,351       486
2007    560           445     0   3,972       463
TRUE-UP
2002    838           771     0   3,803       559
2003    672           528     0   4,065       565
2004    551           413     0   4,299       487
|UFE| (MW)
2005    568           427     0   4,155       505
2006    574           450     0   3,332       488
2007    558           443     0   3,975       462
SR11b                                                                  UFE 2007 Analysis
20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN      MEDIAN      MIN     MAX    STD DEV
2002    -7.0          -7.1   -24.1   16.8       5.1
2003    -1.3          -1.3   -12.7    9.4       3.2
UFE as PERCENT   2004     0.1          0.0    -11.5   13.9       2.4
2005     0.2          0.1    -18.9   10.3       2.6
2006     0.2          0.2     -8.8   11.1       2.5
2007     0.9          0.9    -14.6   14.4       2.5
FINAL
2002    -5.3          -5.2   -20.6    9.5       3.8
2003    -0.2          -0.4   -10.3    9.4       2.7
UFE as PERCENT   2004     0.3          0.2     -9.9   13.1       2.1
of LOAD      2005     0.3          0.2    -14.7    9.3       2.2
2006     0.7          0.7     -7.0    9.2       2.0
2007     0.9          0.9    -11.2   13.2       1.8
TRUE-UP
2002    -1.7          -1.8   -14.8   10.5       2.9
2003     0.4          0.2     -7.9    9.9       2.5
UFE as PERCENT   2004     0.4          0.3     -9.8   13.1       2.1
of LOAD      2005     0.3          0.3    -14.6    9.2       2.2
2006     0.7          0.7     -7.0    9.1       2.0
2007     0.9          0.9    -11.3   13.2       1.8
SR12a                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN      MEDIAN     MIN   MAX    STD DEV
2002     7.5          7.2   0.0   24.1       4.4
2003     2.8          2.4   0.0   12.7       2.0
|UFE as PERCENT   2004     1.8          1.5   0.0   13.9       1.5
of Load|      2005     1.9          1.5   0.0   18.9       1.7
2006     1.9          1.6   0.0   11.1       1.6
2007     2.1          1.7   0.0   14.6       1.7
FINAL
2002     5.6          5.2   0.0   20.6       3.5
2003     2.2          1.9   0.0   10.3       1.6
|UFE as PERCENT   2004     1.7          1.3   0.0   13.1       1.4
of Load|      2005     1.7          1.3   0.0   14.7       1.4
2006     1.6          1.4   0.0    9.2       1.3
2007     1.6          1.3   0.0   13.2       1.3
TRUE-UP
2002     2.7          2.5   0.0   14.8       1.9
2003     2.0          1.7   0.0    9.9       1.5
|UFE as PERCENT   2004     1.7          1.3   0.0   13.1       1.4
of Load|      2005     1.7          1.3   0.0   14.6       1.4
2006     1.6          1.4   0.0    9.1       1.3
2007     1.6          1.3   0.0   13.2       1.3
SR12b                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN        MEDIAN           MIN          MAX        STD DEV
2002
2003           356        -1,785      -88,773      511,652         17,737
2004         2,279            -57     -76,418      200,563         11,501
UFE Cost (\$)
2005         4,224           386     -183,607      730,583         24,830
2006         4,131           596     -164,012      524,472         19,452
2007         6,522         3,033     -148,380      971,848         26,131
FINAL
2002        -2,067        -1,841      -23,686      580,173         21,632
2003         2,663           -635    -132,426      824,621         22,931
2004         2,694           442      -92,510      164,969         10,532
UFE Cost (\$)
2005         4,738           722     -220,201      596,968         21,409
2006         5,329         1,983     -118,425      452,539         16,076
2007         5,993         3,111     -115,711      649,964         20,154
TRUE-UP
2002        -1,777        -2,287     -121,635      933,143         13,866
2003         4,993           496      -86,677      904,970         24,964
2004         2,923           632      -92,408      168,849         10,577
UFE Cost (\$)
2005         4,970           776     -212,732      603,737         21,679
2006         5,379         2,020     -116,067      455,747         16,094
2007         5,939         3,062     -115,201      645,980         20,101

Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because
LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.

SR13a                                                                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN        MEDIAN           MIN          MAX        STD DEV
2002
2003         8,804         5,560            0      511,652         15,401
2004         6,887         4,055            0      200,563          9,489
|UFE Cost| (\$)
2005        12,447         6,177            0      730,583         21,895
2006         9,886         5,543            0      524,472         17,254
2007        10,847         6,229            0      971,848         24,651
FINAL
2002         5,664         3,579            0      580,173         20,978
2003         8,596         4,699            0      824,621         21,425
2004         6,297         3,630            0      164,969          8,862
|UFE Cost| (\$)
2005        10,923         5,345            0      596,968         19,012
2006         8,615         4,670            0      452,539         14,582
2007         8,517         4,977            0      649,964         19,224
TRUE-UP
2002         5,251         3,780            0      933,143         12,955
2003         8,695         4,137            0      904,970         23,928
2004         6,329         3,605            0      168,849          8,964
|UFE Cost| (\$)
2005        11,016         5,338            0      603,737         19,321
2006         8,620         4,688            0      455,747         14,617
2007         8,487         4,970            0      645,980         19,164

Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because
LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
SR13b                                                                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN        MEDIAN           MIN          MAX        STD DEV
2002
2003           -1.0          -1.0       -11.4           9.4          3.1
UFE Cost as % of    2004           0.1           0.0        -11.5         13.9           2.4
Total Cost        2005           0.2           0.1        -18.9         10.3           2.6
2006           0.2           0.2          -8.8        11.1           2.5
2007           0.9           0.9        -14.6         14.4           2.5
FINAL
2002           -2.2          -2.1         -9.4          3.0          2.6
2003           -0.1          -0.3         -8.7          9.4          2.6
UFE Cost as % of    2004           0.3           0.2          -9.9        13.1           2.1
Total Cost        2005           0.3           0.2        -14.7           9.3          2.2
2006           0.7           0.7          -7.0          9.2          2.0
2007           0.9           0.9        -11.2         13.2           1.8
TRUE-UP
2002           -1.6          -1.8       -14.8         10.5           2.9
2003           0.4           0.2          -7.9          9.5          2.5
UFE Cost as % of    2004           0.4           0.3          -9.8        13.1           2.1
Total Cost        2005           0.3           0.3        -14.6           9.2          2.2
2006           0.7           0.7          -7.0          9.1          2.0
2007           0.9           0.9        -11.3         13.2           1.8

Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because
LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.

SR14a                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
INITIAL
MEAN        MEDIAN           MIN          MAX        STD DEV
2002
2003           2.6           2.3          0.0         11.4           1.9
|UFE Cost| as % of   2004           1.8           1.5          0.0         13.9           1.5
Total Cost        2005           1.9           1.5          0.0         18.9           1.7
2006           1.9           1.6          0.0         11.1           1.6
2007           2.1           1.7          0.0         14.6           1.7
FINAL
2002           2.7           2.2          0.0           9.4          2.1
2003           2.1           1.9          0.0           9.4          1.5
|UFE Cost| as % of   2004           1.7           1.3          0.0         13.1           1.4
Total Cost        2005           1.7           1.3          0.0         14.7           1.4
2006           1.6           1.4          0.0           9.2          1.3
2007           1.6           1.3          0.0         13.2           1.3
TRUE-UP
2002           2.7           2.5          0.0         14.8           1.9
2003           2.0           1.7          0.0           9.5          1.5
|UFE Cost| as % of   2004           1.7           1.3          0.0         13.1           1.4
Total Cost        2005           1.7           1.3          0.0         14.6           1.4
2006           1.6           1.4          0.0           9.1          1.3
2007           1.6           1.3          0.0         13.2           1.3

Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because
LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.

SR14b                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                                 FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,706 33,584     22,509   50,557  5,437         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,178 31,629     22,407   51,243  5,080
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,713   33,591   22,517   50,570        5,436   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,185   31,637   22,416   51,251   5,080
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,712   33,590   22,516   50,568        5,436   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,183   31,634   22,414   51,249   5,080

MARCH                                                                     APRIL
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,288 30,256     21,701   39,739  3,625         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,974 30,610     21,979   41,794  4,233
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,295   30,264   21,715   39,745        3,625   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,982   30,621   21,984   41,798   4,237
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,293   30,262   21,712   39,743        3,625   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   29,980   30,620   21,981   41,796   4,237

MAY                                                                     JUNE
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,282 34,498     23,408   49,410  6,121         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,387 39,275     26,398   56,555  7,342
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,291   34,507   23,411   49,411        6,120   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,396   39,281   26,410   56,569   7,343
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,291   34,507   23,411   49,411        6,120   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,396   39,281   26,410   56,569   7,343
SR15                                                                                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                                   AUGUST
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,563 39,542     27,261   56,793  7,280         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   44,301 44,440     30,099   62,250  8,477
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,570   39,550   27,264   56,801        7,280   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   44,307   44,450   30,100   62,265   8,479
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,570   39,551   27,264   56,802        7,280   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   44,307   44,451   30,100   62,265   8,479

SEPTEMBER                                                                 OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,674 39,685     27,331   55,243  7,532         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,349 32,489     22,257   54,204  7,294
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,684   39,696   27,337   55,254        7,533   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,356   32,497   22,267   54,216   7,295
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   39,684   39,696   27,337   55,254        7,533   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   34,356   32,497   22,267   54,216   7,295

NOVEMBER                                                                 DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV                                  MEAN MEDIAN         MIN     MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   31,078 31,537     22,393   40,080  4,138         ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,399 32,634     23,419   45,108  3,865
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   31,085   31,543   22,400   40,093        4,138   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,407   32,642   23,427   45,123   3,865
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
ERCOT Total Load (MW)   31,085   31,543   22,400   40,093        4,138   ERCOT Total Load (MW)   32,407   32,642   23,427   45,123   3,865
SR16                                                                                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
28
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                    FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN         MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)          978   810     -2,457   6,666  1,198       UFE (MW)         -147   -204      -3,523   2,653    740
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         416      366   -2,227   3,274        848   UFE (MW)         327       301    -2,521   2,950    679
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         420      370   -2,223   3,271        848   UFE (MW)         325       302    -2,511   2,953    680

MARCH                                                        APRIL
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN         MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)         -236   -147    -2,319   1,816    615       UFE (MW)          320   413       -3,999   3,028    811
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         255      264   -1,214   1,974        468   UFE (MW)         295       326    -3,068   2,957    617
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         255      265   -1,218   1,972        467   UFE (MW)         289       321    -3,076   2,951    617

MAY                                                        JUNE
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN         MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)          785   664     -1,330   4,319    778       UFE (MW)          282   252       -2,606   2,252    710
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         367      292   -1,373   2,889        650   UFE (MW)         406       348    -1,483   2,278    605
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         361      289   -1,381   2,871        648   UFE (MW)         390       329    -1,516   2,234    601
SR17                                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
29
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                       AUGUST
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)          328   289     -2,140   2,756    783       UFE (MW)          821   802     -1,462   2,585    602
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         374      258   -1,186   3,055        653   UFE (MW)         471     488    -1,429   1,993    540
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         361      247   -1,225   3,005        654   UFE (MW)         470     488    -1,418   2,002    543

SEPTEMBER                                                    OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)          155   129     -1,982   2,198    657       UFE (MW)         -179   -166    -2,759   3,686    779
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         282      247   -1,937   2,391        628   UFE (MW)         274     506        0    3,686    501
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         286      250   -1,932   2,395        629   UFE (MW)         282     240    -1,493   3,972    610

NOVEMBER                                                    DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                     INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW)          551   546     -2,618   3,393    786       UFE (MW)          432   337     -4,000   3,688  1,066
FINAL                                                       FINAL
UFE (MW)         260      272   -2,608   1,915        606   UFE (MW)         327     293    -2,534   2,493    705
TRUE_UP                                                     TRUE_UP
UFE (MW)         243      258   -2,649   1,864        601   UFE (MW)         325     294    -2,525 2,483    702
SR18                                                                                              UFE 2007 Analysis
30
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                 FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN        MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)       1,157   881      1   6,666  1,026       |UFE| (MW)         606   541          0   3,523    449
FINAL                                                    FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        747     598     0   3,274        578   |UFE| (MW)        585       478       0   2,950    475
TRUE_UP                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        748     598     0   3,271        579   |UFE| (MW)        585       478       0   2,953    474

MARCH                                                     APRIL
INITIAL                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN        MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)         510   394      0   2,319    418       |UFE| (MW)         675   542          0   3,999    551
FINAL                                                    FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        430     367     0   1,974        315   |UFE| (MW)        531       443       0   3,068    431
TRUE_UP                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        429     366     0   1,972        314   |UFE| (MW)        528       440       0   3,076    431

MAY                                                      JUNE
INITIAL                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN        MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)         865   685      0   4,319    688       |UFE| (MW)         588   453          0   2,606    488
FINAL                                                    FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        564     413     0   2,889        488   |UFE| (MW)        565       439       0   2,278    459
TRUE_UP                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        561     409     0   2,871        485   |UFE| (MW)        556       429       0   2,234    452
SR19                                                                                              UFE 2007 Analysis
31
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                     AUGUST
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)         648   473       0   2,756    549       |UFE| (MW)         879   809       1   2,585    514
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        546      370     0   3,055        519   |UFE| (MW)        594    543       0   1,993    400
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        542      368     0   3,005        515   |UFE| (MW)        595    545       1   2,002    402

SEPTEMBER                                                  OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)         527   416       1   2,198    422       |UFE| (MW)         624   506       0   3,686    501
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        536      413     0   2,391        433   |UFE| (MW)        507    425       0   3,972    436
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        538      412     0   2,395        434   |UFE| (MW)        510    426       1   3,975    438

NOVEMBER                                                  DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN   MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW)         753   633       0   3,393    595       |UFE| (MW)         855   615       0   4,000    769
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE| (MW)        524      435     0   2,608        400   |UFE| (MW)        600    467       0   2,534    494
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW)        516      435     0   2,649        393   |UFE| (MW)        598    466       0   2,525    491
SR20                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
32
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                       FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                        INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    2.64   2.40     -8.45   14.38   3.12       UFE as % of Load    -0.48 -0.64     -7.15   7.57    2.29
FINAL                                                          FINAL
UFE as % of Load    1.13     1.11   -7.68   7.23        2.42   UFE as % of Load    1.02   0.93     -5.16    8.41   2.09
TRUE_UP                                                        TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    1.14     1.12   -7.67   7.23        2.42   UFE as % of Load    1.01   0.91     -5.15    8.42   2.09

MARCH                                                           APRIL
INITIAL                                                        INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    -0.74 -0.51     -7.73   6.30    2.07       UFE as % of Load    1.05   1.39    -14.64   10.39   2.74
FINAL                                                          FINAL
UFE as % of Load    0.93     0.90   -4.04   7.53        1.61   UFE as % of Load    1.00   1.18    -11.22   10.15   2.11
TRUE_UP                                                        TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    0.92     0.90   -4.06   7.53        1.61   UFE as % of Load    0.98   1.16    -11.26   10.13   2.11

MAY                                                           JUNE
INITIAL                                                        INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    2.16   2.09     -3.86   9.32    1.95       UFE as % of Load    0.63   0.67     -6.89   6.16    1.74
FINAL                                                          FINAL
UFE as % of Load    0.97     0.92   -3.99   6.23        1.73   UFE as % of Load    0.94   0.91     -3.92    5.53   1.43
TRUE_UP                                                        TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    0.95     0.91   -4.01   6.20        1.72   UFE as % of Load    0.90   0.86     -4.01    5.46   1.43
SR21                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
33
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                          AUGUST
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    0.71   0.79      -5.44   5.61    1.82       UFE as % of Load    1.83   1.92     -2.90   4.95    1.25
FINAL                                                           FINAL
UFE as % of Load    0.85      0.73   -3.01   6.22        1.44   UFE as % of Load    1.06   1.11     -2.83    3.84   1.17
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    0.81      0.72   -3.09   6.12        1.44   UFE as % of Load    1.05   1.11     -2.81    3.85   1.17

SEPTEMBER                                                        OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    0.29   0.34      -5.11   4.50    1.57       UFE as % of Load    -0.64 -0.49     -8.75   12.30   2.42
FINAL                                                           FINAL
UFE as % of Load    0.64      0.69   -4.15   4.90        1.44   UFE as % of Load    0.78   0.74     -4.73   13.17   1.86
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    0.64      0.69   -4.14   4.90        1.44   UFE as % of Load    0.80   0.76     -4.70   13.18   1.86

NOVEMBER                                                        DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV                           MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load    1.80   1.86      -8.32   9.53    2.50       UFE as % of Load    1.21   1.12    -12.13   10.33   3.20
FINAL                                                           FINAL
UFE as % of Load    0.90      0.94   -8.27   6.50        1.96   UFE as % of Load    0.95   0.92     -7.74    6.98   2.11
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
UFE as % of Load    0.85      0.88   -8.40   6.36        1.94   UFE as % of Load    0.94   0.92     -7.71    6.96   2.10
SR22                                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
34
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                        FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    3.22   2.66     0.00   14.38   2.52       |UFE as % of Load|    1.90   1.66     0.00   7.57    1.36
FINAL                                                           FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    2.15     1.77   0.00   7.68        1.59   |UFE as % of Load|    1.82   1.50     0.00    8.41   1.44
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    2.15     1.77   0.00   7.67        1.59   |UFE as % of Load|    1.82   1.50     0.00    8.42   1.44

MARCH                                                            APRIL
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    1.72   1.40     0.00   7.73    1.37       |UFE as % of Load|    2.27   1.87     0.00   14.64   1.86
FINAL                                                           FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    1.49     1.26   0.00   7.53        1.10   |UFE as % of Load|    1.79   1.48     0.00   11.22   1.49
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    1.49     1.26   0.00   7.53        1.10   |UFE as % of Load|    1.78   1.46     0.00   11.26   1.49

MAY                                                            JUNE
INITIAL                                                         INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    2.41   2.12     0.00   9.32    1.64       |UFE as % of Load|    1.45   1.23     0.00   6.89    1.14
FINAL                                                           FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    1.57     1.30   0.00   6.23        1.20   |UFE as % of Load|    1.37   1.15     0.00    5.53   1.02
TRUE_UP                                                         TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    1.57     1.29   0.00   6.20        1.19   |UFE as % of Load|    1.35   1.13     0.00    5.46   1.01
SR23                                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
35
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                           AUGUST
INITIAL                                                          INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    1.56   1.30      0.00   5.61    1.17       |UFE as % of Load|    1.95   1.93     0.00   4.95    1.04
FINAL                                                            FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    1.29      1.00   0.00   6.22        1.06   |UFE as % of Load|    1.33   1.23     0.00    3.84   0.84
TRUE_UP                                                          TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    1.28      0.99   0.00   6.12        1.06   |UFE as % of Load|    1.33   1.23     0.00    3.85   0.84

SEPTEMBER                                                         OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                          INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    1.29   1.10      0.00   5.11    0.94       |UFE as % of Load|    1.91   1.50     0.00   12.30   1.63
FINAL                                                            FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    1.29      1.10   0.00   4.90        0.91   |UFE as % of Load|    1.48   1.28     0.00   13.17   1.36
TRUE_UP                                                          TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    1.29      1.10   0.00   4.90        0.91   |UFE as % of Load|    1.49   1.28     0.00   13.18   1.37

NOVEMBER                                                         DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                          INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV                             MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load|    2.44   2.14      0.00   9.53    1.88       |UFE as % of Load|    2.58   1.94     0.00   12.13   2.24
FINAL                                                            FINAL
|UFE as % of Load|    1.71      1.42   0.00   8.27        1.31   |UFE as % of Load|    1.82   1.48     0.00    7.74   1.43
TRUE_UP                                                          TRUE_UP
|UFE as % of Load|    1.68      1.43   0.00   8.40        1.29   |UFE as % of Load|    1.81   1.48     0.00  7.71    1.42
SR24                                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
36
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                         FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                           INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN          MIN      MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      15,002 9,286      -24,535   583,717 31,397      UFE Cost (\$)      -1,558 -2,038 -148,380 273,377 13,118
FINAL                                                             FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      6,780     4,259   -29,381   346,403    18,674   UFE Cost (\$)      4,666   3,081 -97,070 339,321   13,173
TRUE_UP                                                           TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      6,830     4,300   -29,219   347,058    18,722   UFE Cost (\$)      4,640   3,075 -96,402 338,668   13,170

MARCH                                                             APRIL
INITIAL                                                           INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN          MIN      MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      -2,929 -1,679     -36,920   216,060 10,192      UFE Cost (\$)      7,197  4,375 -104,894 507,952 28,317
FINAL                                                             FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      3,781     2,861   -18,642   340,692    11,089   UFE Cost (\$)      6,126   3,511 -40,417 515,646   25,721
TRUE_UP                                                           TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      3,773     2,854   -18,689   341,352    11,099   UFE Cost (\$)      6,040   3,448 -39,623 512,837   25,585

MAY                                                          JUNE
INITIAL                                                           INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN          MIN      MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      15,077 7,693      -14,680   971,848 48,508      UFE Cost (\$)      5,219  2,781 -86,988 217,282 13,431
FINAL                                                             FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      8,364     3,331   -17,278   649,964    33,121   UFE Cost (\$)      6,890   4,180 -42,865 175,699   11,827
TRUE_UP                                                           TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      8,267     3,293   -17,977   645,980    32,916   UFE Cost (\$)      6,659   4,014 -44,812 174,941   11,736
SR25                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
37
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                         AUGUST
INITIAL                                                            INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN           MIN      MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      6,314  2,562       -20,697   356,656 20,113      UFE Cost (\$)      13,121 9,976 -23,734 396,958 20,531
FINAL                                                              FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      6,757      2,303   -14,553   400,831    20,981   UFE Cost (\$)      7,439   5,794 -32,447 268,833   15,188
TRUE_UP                                                            TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      6,580      2,229   -14,729   392,028    20,771   UFE Cost (\$)      7,445   5,754 -32,553 281,212   15,399

SEPTEMBER                                                           OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                            INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN           MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      6,631  1,146 -103,684        544,353 32,899      UFE Cost (\$)      -1,058 -1,257 -45,330 107,456  9,818
FINAL                                                              FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      7,787      2,379   -62,078   509,008    31,560   UFE Cost (\$)      4,094   1,916 -22,533 135,208   10,089
TRUE_UP                                                            TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      7,868      2,418   -55,664   514,266    31,748   UFE Cost (\$)      4,204   1,998 -21,382 135,959   10,170

NOVEMBER                                                          DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                            INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN           MIN      MAX STD DEV                         MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost (\$)      7,373  4,585       -61,910   363,163 19,255      UFE Cost (\$)      8,515  3,218 -99,163 786,685 28,056
FINAL                                                              FINAL
UFE Cost (\$)      3,516      2,173 -115,711    273,879    13,833   UFE Cost (\$)      5,934   2,909 -68,211 516,060   18,555
TRUE_UP                                                            TRUE_UP
UFE Cost (\$)      3,295      1,992 -115,201    265,858    13,483   UFE Cost (\$)      5,889   2,870 -69,429 511,894   18,420
SR26                                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
38
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                   FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                    INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    16,598 9,954      4.4 583,717 30,583     |UFE COST| (\$)    8,134  6,056       2.7 273,377 10,408
FINAL                                                      FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,055   6,568   2.1 346,403    17,134   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,009   5,391      0.5 339,321   11,451
TRUE_UP                                                    TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,074   6,521   3.9 347,058    17,195   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,003   5,381      1.9 338,668   11,442

MARCH                                                      APRIL
INITIAL                                                    INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    6,956  4,967      4.1 216,060  8,004     |UFE COST| (\$)    10,650 6,554       0.6 507,952 27,207
FINAL                                                      FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)     6,086   4,471   2.5 340,692    10,011   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,579   5,107      0.1 515,646   25,010
TRUE_UP                                                    TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)     6,079   4,459   0.8 341,352    10,024   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,530   5,055      4.1 512,837   24,866

MAY                                                      JUNE
INITIAL                                                    INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                        MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    15,931 7,875      1.8 971,848 48,234     |UFE COST| (\$)    9,079  5,468       1.3 217,282 11,188
FINAL                                                      FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,390   4,803   2.3 649,964    32,542   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,816   5,664      1.3 175,699   10,469
TRUE_UP                                                    TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,321   4,758   0.2 645,980    32,331   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,672   5,552      4.1 174,941 10,337
SR27                                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
39
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                   AUGUST
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    9,508  4,987      0.3 356,656 18,815    |UFE COST| (\$)    13,951 10,235      6.2 396,958 19,976
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)     8,597   4,015   0.8 400,831   20,296   |UFE COST| (\$)    9,277   6,617      3.2 268,833   14,140
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)     8,521   4,076   1.1 392,028   20,053   |UFE COST| (\$)    9,313   6,623      5.9 281,212   14,347

SEPTEMBER                                                  OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,589 4,356      5.4 544,353 31,845    |UFE COST| (\$)    7,128  5,027       3.9 107,456  6,833
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,726   4,503   0.3 509,008   30,686   |UFE COST| (\$)    6,579   4,422      5.4 135,208    8,675
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)    10,778   4,519   3.2 514,266   30,881   |UFE COST| (\$)    6,630   4,448      7.6 135,959    8,783

NOVEMBER                                                 DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                   INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN      MIN    MAX STD DEV                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| (\$)    9,701  5,856      3.5 363,163 18,193    |UFE COST| (\$)    12,217 6,237       0.2 786,685 26,653
FINAL                                                     FINAL
|UFE COST| (\$)     6,742   4,386   1.9 273,879   12,579   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,586   4,831      5.9 516,060   17,486
TRUE_UP                                                   TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| (\$)     6,616   4,399   0.7 265,858   12,201   |UFE COST| (\$)    8,551   4,829      1.2 511,894   17,345
SR28                                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
40
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                                FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN       MIN     MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     2.6    2.4    -8.4   14.4     3.1      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     -0.5  -0.6      -7.1     7.6     2.3
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.1     1.1   -7.7    7.2        2.4   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0    0.9       -5.2    8.4     2.1
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.1     1.1   -7.7    7.2        2.4   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0    0.9       -5.2    8.4     2.1

MARCH                                                                   APRIL
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     -0.7  -0.5    -7.7    6.3     2.1      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0    1.4      -14.6   10.4     2.7
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9     0.9   -4.0    7.5        1.6   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0    1.2      -11.2   10.1     2.1
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9     0.9   -4.1    7.5        1.6   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0    1.2      -11.3   10.1     2.1

MAY                                                                    JUNE
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN       MIN     MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     2.2    2.1    -3.9    9.3     2.0      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.6    0.7      -6.9     6.2     1.7
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0     1.0   -4.0    6.2        1.7   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9    0.9       -3.9    5.5     1.4
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.0     1.0   -4.0    6.2        1.7   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9    0.9       -4.0    5.5     1.4
SR29                                                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
41
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                                 AUGUST
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN        MIN     MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.7    0.8   -5.4    5.6     1.8      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.8    1.9       -2.9     4.9     1.3
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.8    0.7   -3.0    6.2        1.4   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.1     1.1       -2.8    3.8     1.2
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.8    0.7   -3.1    6.1        1.4   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.1     1.1       -2.8    3.9     1.2

SEPTEMBER                                                              OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN        MIN     MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.3    0.3   -5.1    4.5     1.6      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     -0.6  -0.5       -8.7    12.3     2.4
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.6    0.7   -4.1    4.9        1.5   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.8     0.7       -4.7   13.2     1.9
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.6    0.7   -4.1    4.9        1.5   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.8     0.8       -4.7   13.2     1.9

NOVEMBER                                                               DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                                INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                     MEAN MEDIAN         MIN    MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      1.8    1.9   -8.3    9.5     2.5      UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     1.2    1.1       -12.1   10.3     3.2
FINAL                                                                  FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.9    0.9   -8.3    6.5        2.0   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9     0.9       -7.7    7.0     2.1
TRUE_UP                                                                TRUE_UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost      0.8    0.9   -8.4    6.4        1.9   UFE Cost as % of Total Cost     0.9     0.9       -7.7    7.0     2.1
SR30                                                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
42
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JANUARY                                                                  FEBRUARY
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     3.2    2.7     0.0   14.4     2.5      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.9    1.7       0.0    7.6     1.4
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.1     1.8   0.0     7.7        1.6   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8    1.5       0.0    8.4     1.4
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.2     1.8   0.0     7.7        1.6   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8    1.5       0.0    8.4     1.4

MARCH                                                                     APRIL
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.7    1.4     0.0    7.7     1.4      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.3    1.9       0.0   14.6     1.9
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.5     1.3   0.0     7.5        1.1   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8    1.5       0.0   11.2     1.5
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.5     1.3   0.0     7.5        1.1   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8    1.5       0.0   11.3     1.5

MAY                                                                      JUNE
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN     MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN       MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.4    2.1     0.0    9.3     1.6      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.5    1.2       0.0    6.9     1.1
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.6     1.3   0.0     6.2        1.2   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.4    1.2       0.0    5.5     1.0
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.6     1.3   0.0     6.2        1.2   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.4    1.1       0.0   5.5     1.0
SR31                                                                                                                           UFE 2007 Analysis
43
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007

JULY                                                                   AUGUST
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.6    1.3    0.0    5.6     1.2      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.0    1.9        0.0    4.9     1.0
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.3    1.0   0.0     6.2        1.1   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.3     1.2      0.0     3.8      0.8
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.3    1.0   0.0     6.1        1.1   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.3     1.2      0.0     3.9      0.8

SEPTEMBER                                                                OCTOBER
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.3    1.1    0.0    5.1     0.9      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.9    1.5        0.0   12.3     1.6
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.3    1.1   0.0     4.9        0.9   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.5     1.3      0.0    13.2      1.4
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.3    1.1   0.0     4.9        0.9   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.5     1.3      0.0    13.2      1.4

NOVEMBER                                                                 DECEMBER
INITIAL                                                                  INITIAL
MEAN MEDIAN    MIN    MAX STD DEV                                       MEAN MEDIAN        MIN    MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      2.4    2.1    0.0    9.5     1.9      |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     2.6    1.9        0.0   12.1     2.2
FINAL                                                                    FINAL
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.7    1.4   0.0     8.3        1.3   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8     1.5      0.0     7.7      1.4
TRUE_UP                                                                  TRUE_UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost      1.7    1.4   0.0     8.4        1.3   |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost     1.8     1.5      0.0     7.7      1.4
SR32                                                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
44
UFD01
Percent of Intervals with UFE Values

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-9
00
-8
00
-7
00
-6
00
-5
00
-4
00
-3
00
-2
00
-1
00

0
10
0
20
0
Distribution of UFE MW

30
0

45
40
0

UFE (MW)
50
0
60
0
70
0
Initial, Final, and True Up - 2007

80
0
90
0
10
00
11
00
Initial

12
00
13
00
Final

14
00
15
00
16
00
True Up

UFE 2007 Analysis
2007 Distribution of UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load

22.0
Initial    Final     True-Up
20.0

18.0
Distribution of UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
-7.0   -6.0   -5.0   -4.0   -3.0   -2.0   -1.0        0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0        4.0   5.0     6.0   7.0

UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD03                                                                                                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
46
Distribution of UFE MW
2006 vs. 2007 - Initial Settlement

7

Initial Settlement                                                        UFE 2006     UFE 2007

6
Percent of Intervals with UFE Values

5

4

3

2

1

0
0

0

0

0

0

00

00

00

00
00

00

00

00
0

0

0

20

40

60

80
00

00

00

10

12

14

16
-8

-6

-4

-2
-3

-2

-1

UFE (MW)
UFD04                                                                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
47
Distribution of UFE MW
2006 vs. 2007 - Final Settlement

8

Final Settlement                                                       UFE 2006     UFE 2007
7
Percent of Intervals with UFE Values

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
0

0

0

0

0

00

00

00

00

00
00

00

00

00

00
0

10

30

50

70

90
50

11

13

15

17

19
-9

-7

-5

-3

-1
-1

UFE (MW)
UFD05                                                                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
48
UFD06
Percent of Intervals with UFE Values
-1

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
00
0                                                                            8
-9
00
-8
00
-7
00
-6
00
-5
00
-4
True Up Settlement

00
-3
00
-2
00
-1
00

0
10
0
20
Distribution of UFE MW

0
30
0

49
40
0

UFE (MW)
50
0
60
0
70
0
80
0
90
2006 vs. 2007 – True Up Settlement

0
10
00
11
00
12
00
13
00
UFE 2006

14
00
15
00
16
00
UFE 2007

UFE 2007 Analysis
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
2006 vs 2007 – Initial Settlement
20.0
Initial Settlement                                                           UFE 2006      UFE 2007
18.0

16.0
Distribution of UFE Percent of Load

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
-7.0   -6.0   -5.0   -4.0   -3.0   -2.0   -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0     5.0   6.0   7.0   8.0

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD07                                                                                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
50
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
2006 vs 2007 – Final Settlement
26.0
Final Settlement
24.0                                                                 UFE 2006    UFE 2007

22.0

20.0
Distribution of UFE Percent of Load

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
-5.0   -4.0   -3.0   -2.0   -1.0   0.0    1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   5.0    6.0      7.0

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD08                                                                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
51
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
2006 vs 2007 – True Up Settlement
26.0
True Up Settlement
24.0                                                                  UFE 2006    UFE 2007

22.0

20.0
Distribution of UFE Percent of Load

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
-5.0   -4.0   -3.0    -2.0   -1.0   0.0    1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   5.0    6.0      7.0

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD09                                                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
52
UFE Distribution
Initial

53         UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - January
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=1

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                             0       0
- 9. 5                                                             0       0
- 8. 5                                                             7       0
- 7. 5                                                            20       1
- 6. 5                                                            24       1
- 5. 5                                                            28       1
- 4. 5                                                            39       1
- 3. 5                                                            63       2
- 2. 5                                                           141       5
- 1. 5                                                           275       9
- 0. 5                                                           570      19
0. 5                                                            927      31
1. 5                                                            1310     44
2. 5                                                            1699     57
3. 5                                                            1982     67
4. 5                                                            2277     77
5. 5                                                            2585     87
6. 5                                                            2790     94
7. 5                                                            2871     96
8. 5                                                            2920     98
9. 5                                                            2929     98
10. 5                                                            2976    100

0   100               200                   300   400

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD10                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
54
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - February
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=2

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                   0       0
- 9. 5                                                                   0       0
- 8. 5                                                                   0       0
- 7. 5                                                                   1       0
- 6. 5                                                                  11       0
- 5. 5                                                                  49       2
- 4. 5                                                                 146       5
- 3. 5                                                                 360      13
- 2. 5                                                                 726      27
- 1. 5                                                                 1177     44
- 0. 5                                                                 1630     61
0. 5                                                                  2022     75
1. 5                                                                  2309     86
2. 5                                                                  2494     93
3. 5                                                                  2583     96
4. 5                                                                  2660     99
5. 5                                                                  2683    100
6. 5                                                                  2687    100
7. 5                                                                  2688    100
8. 5                                                                  2688    100
9. 5                                                                  2688    100
10. 5                                                                  2688    100

0   100      200                300               400   500

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD11                                                                              UFE 2007 Analysis
55
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - March
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=3

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                    0       0
- 9. 5                                                                    0       0
- 8. 5                                                                    0       0
- 7. 5                                                                    2       0
- 6. 5                                                                   21       1
- 5. 5                                                                   71       2
- 4. 5                                                                  193       6
- 3. 5                                                                  521      18
- 2. 5                                                                  815      27
- 1. 5                                                                  1255     42
- 0. 5                                                                  1798     60
0. 5                                                                   2397     81
1. 5                                                                   2717     91
2. 5                                                                   2922     98
3. 5                                                                   2952     99
4. 5                                                                   2967    100
5. 5                                                                   2970    100
6. 5                                                                   2972    100
7. 5                                                                   2972    100
8. 5                                                                   2972    100
9. 5                                                                   2972    100
10. 5                                                                   2972    100

0   100   200          300              400        500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD12                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
56
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - April
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=4

U .
C M           U .
C M
E .
FR Q           C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                   22       0. 76
- 9. 5                                                                   25       0. 87
- 8. 5                                                                   30       1. 04
- 7. 5                                                                   41       1. 42
- 6. 5                                                                   77       2. 67
- 5. 5                                                                  135       4. 69
- 4. 5                                                                  163       5. 66
- 3. 5                                                                  200       6. 94
- 2. 5                                                                  255       8. 85
- 1. 5                                                                  445      15. 45
- 0. 5                                                                  715      24. 83
0. 5                                                                   1237     42. 95
1. 5                                                                   1779     61. 77
2. 5                                                                   2283     79. 27
3. 5                                                                   2628     91. 25
4. 5                                                                   2802     97. 29
5. 5                                                                   2850     98. 96
6. 5                                                                   2866     99. 51
7. 5                                                                   2871     99. 69
8. 5                                                                   2877     99. 90
9. 5                                                                   2879     99. 97
10. 5                                                                   2880    100. 00

0   100   200          300              400        500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD13                                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
57
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - May
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=5

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                         0       0
- 9. 5                                                                         0       0
- 8. 5                                                                         0       0
- 7. 5                                                                         0       0
- 6. 5                                                                         0       0
- 5. 5                                                                         0       0
- 4. 5                                                                         0       0
- 3. 5                                                                         4       0
- 2. 5                                                                        38       1
- 1. 5                                                                       153       5
- 0. 5                                                                       401      13
0. 5                                                                        742      25
1. 5                                                                        1402     47
2. 5                                                                        2119     71
3. 5                                                                        2513     84
4. 5                                                                        2727     92
5. 5                                                                        2874     97
6. 5                                                                        2947     99
7. 5                                                                        2968    100
8. 5                                                                        2975    100
9. 5                                                                        2976    100
10. 5                                                                        2976    100

0   100   200    300        400         500       600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD14                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
58
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - June
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=6

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                         0       0
- 9. 5                                                                         0       0
- 8. 5                                                                         0       0
- 7. 5                                                                         0       0
- 6. 5                                                                        15       1
- 5. 5                                                                        23       1
- 4. 5                                                                        26       1
- 3. 5                                                                        51       2
- 2. 5                                                                       153       5
- 1. 5                                                                       467      16
- 0. 5                                                                       998      35
0. 5                                                                        1659     58
1. 5                                                                        2276     79
2. 5                                                                        2665     93
3. 5                                                                        2815     98
4. 5                                                                        2860     99
5. 5                                                                        2879    100
6. 5                                                                        2880    100
7. 5                                                                        2880    100
8. 5                                                                        2880    100
9. 5                                                                        2880    100
10. 5                                                                        2880    100

0   100   200         300          400          500     600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD15                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
59
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - July
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=7

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                         0       0
- 9. 5                                                                         0       0
- 8. 5                                                                         0       0
- 7. 5                                                                         0       0
- 6. 5                                                                         0       0
- 5. 5                                                                        13       0
- 4. 5                                                                        28       1
- 3. 5                                                                        84       3
- 2. 5                                                                       219       7
- 1. 5                                                                       476      16
- 0. 5                                                                       982      33
0. 5                                                                        1631     55
1. 5                                                                        2293     77
2. 5                                                                        2699     91
3. 5                                                                        2881     97
4. 5                                                                        2966    100
5. 5                                                                        2976    100
6. 5                                                                        2976    100
7. 5                                                                        2976    100
8. 5                                                                        2976    100
9. 5                                                                        2976    100
10. 5                                                                        2976    100

0   100   200         300          400          500     600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD16                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
60
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - August
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=8

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                         0       0
- 9. 5                                                                         0       0
- 8. 5                                                                         0       0
- 7. 5                                                                         0       0
- 6. 5                                                                         0       0
- 5. 5                                                                         0       0
- 4. 5                                                                         0       0
- 3. 5                                                                         0       0
- 2. 5                                                                        16       1
- 1. 5                                                                        45       2
- 0. 5                                                                       239       9
0. 5                                                                        577      22
1. 5                                                                        1375     53
2. 5                                                                        2129     82
3. 5                                                                        2539     98
4. 5                                                                        2592    100
5. 5                                                                        2592    100
6. 5                                                                        2592    100
7. 5                                                                        2592    100
8. 5                                                                        2592    100
9. 5                                                                        2592    100
10. 5                                                                        2592    100

0   100   200    300        400         500       600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD17                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
61
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - September
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=9

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                         0       0
- 9. 5                                                                         0       0
- 8. 5                                                                         0       0
- 7. 5                                                                         0       0
- 6. 5                                                                         0       0
- 5. 5                                                                         1       0
- 4. 5                                                                        15       1
- 3. 5                                                                        60       2
- 2. 5                                                                       237       8
- 1. 5                                                                       605      21
- 0. 5                                                                       1195     41
0. 5                                                                        1937     67
1. 5                                                                        2465     86
2. 5                                                                        2796     97
3. 5                                                                        2870    100
4. 5                                                                        2880    100
5. 5                                                                        2880    100
6. 5                                                                        2880    100
7. 5                                                                        2880    100
8. 5                                                                        2880    100
9. 5                                                                        2880    100
10. 5                                                                        2880    100

0   100   200    300        400         500       600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD18                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
62
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - October
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=10

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                     0       0
- 9. 5                                                                     0       0
- 8. 5                                                                    12       0
- 7. 5                                                                    21       1
- 6. 5                                                                    44       1
- 5. 5                                                                   130       4
- 4. 5                                                                   249       8
- 3. 5                                                                   458      15
- 2. 5                                                                   801      27
- 1. 5                                                                   1296     44
- 0. 5                                                                   1701     57
0. 5                                                                    2269     76
1. 5                                                                    2730     92
2. 5                                                                    2881     97
3. 5                                                                    2912     98
4. 5                                                                    2946     99
5. 5                                                                    2949     99
6. 5                                                                    2952     99
7. 5                                                                    2956     99
8. 5                                                                    2960     99
9. 5                                                                    2966    100
10. 5                                                                    2976    100

0   100   200           300             400         500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD19                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
63
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - November
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=11

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                     0       0
- 9. 5                                                                     0       0
- 8. 5                                                                     1       0
- 7. 5                                                                    14       0
- 6. 5                                                                    28       1
- 5. 5                                                                    46       2
- 4. 5                                                                    62       2
- 3. 5                                                                    71       2
- 2. 5                                                                   154       5
- 1. 5                                                                   282      10
- 0. 5                                                                   570      20
0. 5                                                                    1052     36
1. 5                                                                    1511     52
2. 5                                                                    2064     72
3. 5                                                                    2452     85
4. 5                                                                    2621     91
5. 5                                                                    2718     94
6. 5                                                                    2809     97
7. 5                                                                    2856     99
8. 5                                                                    2874    100
9. 5                                                                    2884    100
10. 5                                                                    2884    100

0   100   200           300             400         500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD20                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
64
UFE Distribution 2007
Initial - December
et
S t l ement =1 I ni t i al   Mont h=12

U .
C M           U .
C M
E .
FR Q           C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                   23       0. 77
- 9. 5                                                                   37       1. 24
- 8. 5                                                                   43       1. 44
- 7. 5                                                                   58       1. 95
- 6. 5                                                                   90       3. 02
- 5. 5                                                                  111       3. 73
- 4. 5                                                                  139       4. 67
- 3. 5                                                                  200       6. 72
- 2. 5                                                                  305      10. 25
- 1. 5                                                                  565      18. 99
- 0. 5                                                                  985      33. 10
0. 5                                                                   1430     48. 05
1. 5                                                                   1831     61. 53
2. 5                                                                   2167     72. 82
3. 5                                                                   2424     81. 45
4. 5                                                                   2678     89. 99
5. 5                                                                   2797     93. 99
6. 5                                                                   2868     96. 37
7. 5                                                                   2939     98. 76
8. 5                                                                   2961     99. 50
9. 5                                                                   2975     99. 97
10. 5                                                                   2976    100. 00

0   100       200                300               400   500

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD21                                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
65
UFE Distribution
Final

66          UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - January
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal     Mont h=1

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                0       0
- 9. 5                                                                0       0
- 8. 5                                                                0       0
- 7. 5                                                               16       1
- 6. 5                                                               21       1
- 5. 5                                                               27       1
- 4. 5                                                               38       1
- 3. 5                                                              124       4
- 2. 5                                                              275       9
- 1. 5                                                              571      19
- 0. 5                                                              982      33
0. 5                                                               1440     48
1. 5                                                               1894     64
2. 5                                                               2243     75
3. 5                                                               2620     88
4. 5                                                               2818     95
5. 5                                                               2930     98
6. 5                                                               2974    100
7. 5                                                               2976    100
8. 5                                                               2976    100
9. 5                                                               2976    100
10. 5                                                               2976    100

0   100     200               300              400   500

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD22                                                                           UFE 2007 Analysis
67
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - February
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=2

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                0       0
- 9. 5                                                                0       0
- 8. 5                                                                0       0
- 7. 5                                                                0       0
- 6. 5                                                                0       0
- 5. 5                                                                2       0
- 4. 5                                                               12       0
- 3. 5                                                               67       2
- 2. 5                                                              176       7
- 1. 5                                                              434      16
- 0. 5                                                              881      33
0. 5                                                               1382     51
1. 5                                                               1857     69
2. 5                                                               2253     84
3. 5                                                               2492     93
4. 5                                                               2574     96
5. 5                                                               2638     98
6. 5                                                               2674     99
7. 5                                                               2687    100
8. 5                                                               2688    100
9. 5                                                               2688    100
10. 5                                                               2688    100

0   100   200         300           400        500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD23                                                                           UFE 2007 Analysis
68
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - March
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=3

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                      0       0
- 9. 5                                                                      0       0
- 8. 5                                                                      0       0
- 7. 5                                                                      0       0
- 6. 5                                                                      0       0
- 5. 5                                                                      0       0
- 4. 5                                                                      1       0
- 3. 5                                                                     32       1
- 2. 5                                                                    107       4
- 1. 5                                                                    355      12
- 0. 5                                                                    848      29
0. 5                                                                     1597     54
1. 5                                                                     2219     75
2. 5                                                                     2694     91
3. 5                                                                     2914     98
4. 5                                                                     2955     99
5. 5                                                                     2968    100
6. 5                                                                     2971    100
7. 5                                                                     2972    100
8. 5                                                                     2972    100
9. 5                                                                     2972    100
10. 5                                                                     2972    100

0   100   200   300       400        500       600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD24                                                                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
69
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - April
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=4

U .
C M           U .
C M
E .
FR Q           C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                    7       0. 24
- 9. 5                                                                    9       0. 31
- 8. 5                                                                   12       0. 42
- 7. 5                                                                   19       0. 66
- 6. 5                                                                   25       0. 87
- 5. 5                                                                   44       1. 53
- 4. 5                                                                   94       3. 26
- 3. 5                                                                  137       4. 76
- 2. 5                                                                  183       6. 35
- 1. 5                                                                  307      10. 66
- 0. 5                                                                  703      24. 41
0. 5                                                                   1319     45. 80
1. 5                                                                   2015     69. 97
2. 5                                                                   2531     87. 88
3. 5                                                                   2761     95. 87
4. 5                                                                   2837     98. 51
5. 5                                                                   2860     99. 31
6. 5                                                                   2865     99. 48
7. 5                                                                   2868     99. 58
8. 5                                                                   2873     99. 76
9. 5                                                                   2878     99. 93
10. 5                                                                   2880    100. 00

0   100   200       300        400         500     600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD25                                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
70
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - May
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=5

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                      0       0
- 9. 5                                                                      0       0
- 8. 5                                                                      0       0
- 7. 5                                                                      0       0
- 6. 5                                                                      0       0
- 5. 5                                                                      0       0
- 4. 5                                                                      0       0
- 3. 5                                                                     24       1
- 2. 5                                                                    119       4
- 1. 5                                                                    379      13
- 0. 5                                                                    804      27
0. 5                                                                     1537     52
1. 5                                                                     2240     75
2. 5                                                                     2606     88
3. 5                                                                     2813     95
4. 5                                                                     2944     99
5. 5                                                                     2973    100
6. 5                                                                     2976    100
7. 5                                                                     2976    100
8. 5                                                                     2976    100
9. 5                                                                     2976    100
10. 5                                                                     2976    100

0   100   200   300       400        500       600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD26                                                                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
71
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - June
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=6

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                            0       0
- 9. 5                                                                            0       0
- 8. 5                                                                            0       0
- 7. 5                                                                            0       0
- 6. 5                                                                            0       0
- 5. 5                                                                            0       0
- 4. 5                                                                            0       0
- 3. 5                                                                           18       1
- 2. 5                                                                           51       2
- 1. 5                                                                          257       9
- 0. 5                                                                          695      24
0. 5                                                                           1527     53
1. 5                                                                           2219     77
2. 5                                                                           2690     93
3. 5                                                                           2811     98
4. 5                                                                           2869    100
5. 5                                                                           2880    100
6. 5                                                                           2880    100
7. 5                                                                           2880    100
8. 5                                                                           2880    100
9. 5                                                                           2880    100
10. 5                                                                           2880    100

0   100   200   300    400      500       600        700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD27                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
72
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - July
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=7

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                            0       0
- 9. 5                                                                            0       0
- 8. 5                                                                            0       0
- 7. 5                                                                            0       0
- 6. 5                                                                            0       0
- 5. 5                                                                            0       0
- 4. 5                                                                            0       0
- 3. 5                                                                            1       0
- 2. 5                                                                           51       2
- 1. 5                                                                          258       9
- 0. 5                                                                          852      29
0. 5                                                                           1751     59
1. 5                                                                           2395     80
2. 5                                                                           2774     93
3. 5                                                                           2911     98
4. 5                                                                           2964    100
5. 5                                                                           2973    100
6. 5                                                                           2976    100
7. 5                                                                           2976    100
8. 5                                                                           2976    100
9. 5                                                                           2976    100
10. 5                                                                           2976    100

0   100   200   300    400      500       600        700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD28                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
73
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - August
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=8

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                            0       0
- 9. 5                                                                            0       0
- 8. 5                                                                            0       0
- 7. 5                                                                            0       0
- 6. 5                                                                            0       0
- 5. 5                                                                            0       0
- 4. 5                                                                            0       0
- 3. 5                                                                            0       0
- 2. 5                                                                           19       1
- 1. 5                                                                          138       5
- 0. 5                                                                          478      18
0. 5                                                                           1186     46
1. 5                                                                           2014     78
2. 5                                                                           2508     97
3. 5                                                                           2592    100
4. 5                                                                           2592    100
5. 5                                                                           2592    100
6. 5                                                                           2592    100
7. 5                                                                           2592    100
8. 5                                                                           2592    100
9. 5                                                                           2592    100
10. 5                                                                           2592    100

0   100   200   300    400      500       600        700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD29                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
74
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - September
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=9

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                            0       0
- 9. 5                                                                            0       0
- 8. 5                                                                            0       0
- 7. 5                                                                            0       0
- 6. 5                                                                            0       0
- 5. 5                                                                            0       0
- 4. 5                                                                            4       0
- 3. 5                                                                           26       1
- 2. 5                                                                           88       3
- 1. 5                                                                          414      14
- 0. 5                                                                          912      32
0. 5                                                                           1719     60
1. 5                                                                           2327     81
2. 5                                                                           2751     96
3. 5                                                                           2864     99
4. 5                                                                           2880    100
5. 5                                                                           2880    100
6. 5                                                                           2880    100
7. 5                                                                           2880    100
8. 5                                                                           2880    100
9. 5                                                                           2880    100
10. 5                                                                           2880    100

0   100   200   300    400      500       600        700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD30                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
75
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - October
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=10

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                     0       0
- 9. 5                                                                     0       0
- 8. 5                                                                     0       0
- 7. 5                                                                     0       0
- 6. 5                                                                     0       0
- 5. 5                                                                     0       0
- 4. 5                                                                    13       0
- 3. 5                                                                    26       1
- 2. 5                                                                   138       5
- 1. 5                                                                   429      14
- 0. 5                                                                   966      32
0. 5                                                                    1643     55
1. 5                                                                    2313     78
2. 5                                                                    2807     94
3. 5                                                                    2908     98
4. 5                                                                    2916     98
5. 5                                                                    2942     99
6. 5                                                                    2948     99
7. 5                                                                    2949     99
8. 5                                                                    2952     99
9. 5                                                                    2958     99
10. 5                                                                    2976    100

0   100   200        300        400         500     600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD31                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
76
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - November
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=11

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                 0       0
- 9. 5                                                                 0       0
- 8. 5                                                                 3       0
- 7. 5                                                                 9       0
- 6. 5                                                                14       0
- 5. 5                                                                19       1
- 4. 5                                                                36       1
- 3. 5                                                                54       2
- 2. 5                                                               106       4
- 1. 5                                                               471      16
- 0. 5                                                               970      34
0. 5                                                                1483     51
1. 5                                                                2074     72
2. 5                                                                2469     86
3. 5                                                                2729     95
4. 5                                                                2833     98
5. 5                                                                2880    100
6. 5                                                                2884    100
7. 5                                                                2884    100
8. 5                                                                2884    100
9. 5                                                                2884    100
10. 5                                                                2884    100

0   100   200         300            400        500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD32                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
77
UFE Distribution 2007
Final - December
et
S t l ement =4 Fi nal   Mont h=12

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                 0       0
- 9. 5                                                                 0       0
- 8. 5                                                                 0       0
- 7. 5                                                                12       0
- 6. 5                                                                14       0
- 5. 5                                                                22       1
- 4. 5                                                                30       1
- 3. 5                                                                65       2
- 2. 5                                                               203       7
- 1. 5                                                               524      18
- 0. 5                                                               969      33
0. 5                                                                1553     52
1. 5                                                                2040     69
2. 5                                                                2535     85
3. 5                                                                2762     93
4. 5                                                                2863     96
5. 5                                                                2940     99
6. 5                                                                2976    100
7. 5                                                                2976    100
8. 5                                                                2976    100
9. 5                                                                2976    100
10. 5                                                                2976    100

0   100   200         300            400        500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD33                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
78
UFE Distribution
True Up

79          UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - January
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=1

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                             0       0
- 9. 5                                                             0       0
- 8. 5                                                             0       0
- 7. 5                                                            16       1
- 6. 5                                                            21       1
- 5. 5                                                            27       1
- 4. 5                                                            38       1
- 3. 5                                                           124       4
- 2. 5                                                           272       9
- 1. 5                                                           565      19
- 0. 5                                                           977      33
0. 5                                                            1437     48
1. 5                                                            1893     64
2. 5                                                            2237     75
3. 5                                                            2612     88
4. 5                                                            2818     95
5. 5                                                            2929     98
6. 5                                                            2974    100
7. 5                                                            2976    100
8. 5                                                            2976    100
9. 5                                                            2976    100
10. 5                                                            2976    100

0   100      200               300          400   500

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD34                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
80
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - February
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=2

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                             0       0
- 9. 5                                                             0       0
- 8. 5                                                             0       0
- 7. 5                                                             0       0
- 6. 5                                                             0       0
- 5. 5                                                             2       0
- 4. 5                                                            12       0
- 3. 5                                                            65       2
- 2. 5                                                           177       7
- 1. 5                                                           436      16
- 0. 5                                                           888      33
0. 5                                                            1387     52
1. 5                                                            1864     69
2. 5                                                            2256     84
3. 5                                                            2491     93
4. 5                                                            2574     96
5. 5                                                            2637     98
6. 5                                                            2673     99
7. 5                                                            2687    100
8. 5                                                            2688    100
9. 5                                                            2688    100
10. 5                                                            2688    100

0   100      200               300          400   500

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD35                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
81
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - March
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=3

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                    0       0
- 9. 5                                                                    0       0
- 8. 5                                                                    0       0
- 7. 5                                                                    0       0
- 6. 5                                                                    0       0
- 5. 5                                                                    0       0
- 4. 5                                                                    1       0
- 3. 5                                                                   33       1
- 2. 5                                                                  107       4
- 1. 5                                                                  355      12
- 0. 5                                                                  851      29
0. 5                                                                   1595     54
1. 5                                                                   2222     75
2. 5                                                                   2693     91
3. 5                                                                   2913     98
4. 5                                                                   2955     99
5. 5                                                                   2968    100
6. 5                                                                   2971    100
7. 5                                                                   2972    100
8. 5                                                                   2972    100
9. 5                                                                   2972    100
10. 5                                                                   2972    100

0   100   200    300      400        500     600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD36                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
82
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - April
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=4

U .
C M           U .
C M
E .
FR Q           C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                   7       0. 24
- 9. 5                                                                   9       0. 31
- 8. 5                                                                  12       0. 42
- 7. 5                                                                  19       0. 66
- 6. 5                                                                  25       0. 87
- 5. 5                                                                  44       1. 53
- 4. 5                                                                  94       3. 26
- 3. 5                                                                 138       4. 79
- 2. 5                                                                 186       6. 46
- 1. 5                                                                 312      10. 83
- 0. 5                                                                 712      24. 72
0. 5                                                                  1339     46. 49
1. 5                                                                  2029     70. 45
2. 5                                                                  2534     87. 99
3. 5                                                                  2768     96. 11
4. 5                                                                  2837     98. 51
5. 5                                                                  2860     99. 31
6. 5                                                                  2865     99. 48
7. 5                                                                  2869     99. 62
8. 5                                                                  2873     99. 76
9. 5                                                                  2878     99. 93
10. 5                                                                  2880    100. 00

0   100   200       300        400       500      600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD37                                                                                  UFE 2007 Analysis
83
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - May
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=5

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                    0       0
- 9. 5                                                                    0       0
- 8. 5                                                                    0       0
- 7. 5                                                                    0       0
- 6. 5                                                                    0       0
- 5. 5                                                                    0       0
- 4. 5                                                                    1       0
- 3. 5                                                                   25       1
- 2. 5                                                                  127       4
- 1. 5                                                                  382      13
- 0. 5                                                                  814      27
0. 5                                                                   1551     52
1. 5                                                                   2256     76
2. 5                                                                   2616     88
3. 5                                                                   2817     95
4. 5                                                                   2946     99
5. 5                                                                   2974    100
6. 5                                                                   2976    100
7. 5                                                                   2976    100
8. 5                                                                   2976    100
9. 5                                                                   2976    100
10. 5                                                                   2976    100

0   100   200    300      400        500     600   700   800

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD38                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
84
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - June
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=6

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                          0       0
- 9. 5                                                                          0       0
- 8. 5                                                                          0       0
- 7. 5                                                                          0       0
- 6. 5                                                                          0       0
- 5. 5                                                                          0       0
- 4. 5                                                                          1       0
- 3. 5                                                                         19       1
- 2. 5                                                                         53       2
- 1. 5                                                                        268       9
- 0. 5                                                                        710      25
0. 5                                                                         1562     54
1. 5                                                                         2257     78
2. 5                                                                         2694     94
3. 5                                                                         2820     98
4. 5                                                                         2870    100
5. 5                                                                         2880    100
6. 5                                                                         2880    100
7. 5                                                                         2880    100
8. 5                                                                         2880    100
9. 5                                                                         2880    100
10. 5                                                                         2880    100

0   100   200   300    400     500     600         700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD39                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
85
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - July
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=7

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                          0       0
- 9. 5                                                                          0       0
- 8. 5                                                                          0       0
- 7. 5                                                                          0       0
- 6. 5                                                                          0       0
- 5. 5                                                                          0       0
- 4. 5                                                                          0       0
- 3. 5                                                                          2       0
- 2. 5                                                                         54       2
- 1. 5                                                                        276       9
- 0. 5                                                                        888      30
0. 5                                                                         1777     60
1. 5                                                                         2413     81
2. 5                                                                         2778     93
3. 5                                                                         2912     98
4. 5                                                                         2964    100
5. 5                                                                         2973    100
6. 5                                                                         2976    100
7. 5                                                                         2976    100
8. 5                                                                         2976    100
9. 5                                                                         2976    100
10. 5                                                                         2976    100

0   100   200   300    400     500     600         700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD40                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
86
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - August
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=8

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                          0       0
- 9. 5                                                                          0       0
- 8. 5                                                                          0       0
- 7. 5                                                                          0       0
- 6. 5                                                                          0       0
- 5. 5                                                                          0       0
- 4. 5                                                                          0       0
- 3. 5                                                                          0       0
- 2. 5                                                                         20       1
- 1. 5                                                                        144       6
- 0. 5                                                                        481      19
0. 5                                                                         1186     46
1. 5                                                                         2016     78
2. 5                                                                         2505     97
3. 5                                                                         2592    100
4. 5                                                                         2592    100
5. 5                                                                         2592    100
6. 5                                                                         2592    100
7. 5                                                                         2592    100
8. 5                                                                         2592    100
9. 5                                                                         2592    100
10. 5                                                                         2592    100

0   100   200   300    400     500     600         700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD41                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
87
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - September
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=9

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                          0       0
- 9. 5                                                                          0       0
- 8. 5                                                                          0       0
- 7. 5                                                                          0       0
- 6. 5                                                                          0       0
- 5. 5                                                                          0       0
- 4. 5                                                                          4       0
- 3. 5                                                                         26       1
- 2. 5                                                                         87       3
- 1. 5                                                                        413      14
- 0. 5                                                                        903      31
0. 5                                                                         1717     60
1. 5                                                                         2320     81
2. 5                                                                         2748     95
3. 5                                                                         2864     99
4. 5                                                                         2880    100
5. 5                                                                         2880    100
6. 5                                                                         2880    100
7. 5                                                                         2880    100
8. 5                                                                         2880    100
9. 5                                                                         2880    100
10. 5                                                                         2880    100

0   100   200   300    400     500     600         700   800   900

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD42                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
88
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - October
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=10

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                                    0       0
- 9. 5                                                                    0       0
- 8. 5                                                                    0       0
- 7. 5                                                                    0       0
- 6. 5                                                                    0       0
- 5. 5                                                                    0       0
- 4. 5                                                                   13       0
- 3. 5                                                                   26       1
- 2. 5                                                                  135       5
- 1. 5                                                                  422      14
- 0. 5                                                                  952      32
0. 5                                                                   1628     55
1. 5                                                                   2298     77
2. 5                                                                   2803     94
3. 5                                                                   2908     98
4. 5                                                                   2916     98
5. 5                                                                   2941     99
6. 5                                                                   2948     99
7. 5                                                                   2949     99
8. 5                                                                   2952     99
9. 5                                                                   2958     99
10. 5                                                                   2976    100

0   100   200        300        400       500      600   700

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD43                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
89
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - November
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=11

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                               0       0
- 9. 5                                                               0       0
- 8. 5                                                               3       0
- 7. 5                                                              11       0
- 6. 5                                                              16       1
- 5. 5                                                              19       1
- 4. 5                                                              36       1
- 3. 5                                                              52       2
- 2. 5                                                             112       4
- 1. 5                                                             487      17
- 0. 5                                                             991      34
0. 5                                                              1518     53
1. 5                                                              2105     73
2. 5                                                              2494     86
3. 5                                                              2735     95
4. 5                                                              2841     99
5. 5                                                              2881    100
6. 5                                                              2884    100
7. 5                                                              2884    100
8. 5                                                              2884    100
9. 5                                                              2884    100
10. 5                                                              2884    100

0   100   200        300          400         500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD44                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
90
UFE Distribution 2007
True Up - December
et
S t l em              p
ent =5 Tr ue U Mont h=12

U .
C M        U .
C M
E .
FR Q        C
P T.
- 10. 5                                                               0       0
- 9. 5                                                               0       0
- 8. 5                                                               0       0
- 7. 5                                                              12       0
- 6. 5                                                              14       0
- 5. 5                                                              22       1
- 4. 5                                                              30       1
- 3. 5                                                              66       2
- 2. 5                                                             208       7
- 1. 5                                                             526      18
- 0. 5                                                             971      33
0. 5                                                              1552     52
1. 5                                                              2046     69
2. 5                                                              2543     85
3. 5                                                              2767     93
4. 5                                                              2863     96
5. 5                                                              2940     99
6. 5                                                              2976    100
7. 5                                                              2976    100
8. 5                                                              2976    100
9. 5                                                              2976    100
10. 5                                                              2976    100

0   100   200        300          400         500   600

E U N Y
FR Q E C
UFD45                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
91
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007
Initial Settlement plus
95% Confidence Interval
10

8

6

4
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10
Sun    Mon     Tue            Wed            Thur             Fri      Sat
Day of the Week 2007
Median         5th Percentile      95th Percentile
CIP01
92                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007
Final Settlement plus
95% Confidence Interval
10

8

6

4
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

Sun    Mon       Tue          Wed             Thur             Fri       Sat
Day of the Week 2007
Median        5th Percentile        95th Percentile
CIP02
93                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007
True-Up Settlement plus
95% Confidence Interval
10

8

6

4
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

Sun    Mon        Tue           Wed            Thur             Fri       Sat

Day of the Week 2007
Median         5th Percentile        95th Percentile
CIP03
94                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007
Comparison of Medians for Initial & Final
3

Initial     Final
2.5

2
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

1.5

1

0.5

0

-0.5

-1

Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
-1.5
Sun             Mon             Tue             Wed            Thu              Fri        Sat

Day of the Week 2007
CIP04
95                                           UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2007
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
4                                                                                                              55000

50000
3
45000

40000
2
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

35000

1
30000

25000
0

20000

-1
15000

10000
-2
5000

Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
-3                                                                                                             0

Sun              Mon              Tue               Wed                Thu          Fri           Sat
Day of the Week

Initial         Final           Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses

SEA01
96                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2007
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
4                                                                                                                  55000

50000
3
45000

40000
2
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

35000

1
30000

25000
0

20000

-1
15000

10000
-2
5000
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.

-3                                                                                                                 0

Sun               Mon               Tue              Wed                Thu           Fri              Sat
Day of the Week

Initial              Final               Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
SEA02
97                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2007
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
4                                                                                                                 55000

50000
3
45000

40000
2
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

35000

1
30000

25000
0

20000

-1
15000

10000
-2
5000
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
-3                                                                                                                0

Sun                  Mon           Tue             Wed                 Thu           Fri              Sat
Day of the Week

Initial              Final               Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses

SEA03
98                                                      UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2007
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
5                                                                                                              55000

50000
4

45000

3
40000
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

2                                                                                                              35000

30000
1
25000

0                                                                                                              20000

15000
-1

10000

-2
5000
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.

-3                                                                                                             0

Sun               Mon                Tue            Wed                Thu          Fri            Sat
Day of the Week

Initial              Final               Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
SEA04
99                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial Settlement
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
6

5

4

3
UFE Percent of Load

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3
Sun    Mon        Tue            Wed            Thu     Fri        Sat

Day of the Week

Spring         Summer               Fall     Winter

SEA05
100                                 UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final Settlement
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
6

5

4

3
UFE Percent of Load

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3
Sun    Mon        Tue         Wed             Thu    Fri         Sat

Day of the Week

Spring         Summer              Fall    Winter
SEA06
101                                UFE 2007 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True Up
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
6

5

4

3
UFE Percent of Load

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Sun   Mon        Tue         Wed             Thu    Fri         Sat

Day of the Week

Spring         Summer              Fall    Winter

SEA07
102                               UFE 2007 Analysis
Percent UFE vs ERCOT Load
Initial Settlement - 2007
7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0
Percent UFE

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0
22000    27000   32000            37000           42000       47000        52000         57000

Median   5th Percentile           95th Percentile     Regression on Total Aggregated Load

MPL01                                                                                                                UFE 2007 Analysis
103
Percent UFE vs ERCOT Load
Final Settlement - 2007
7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0
Percent UFE

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0
22000    27000   32000            37000          42000       47000        52000         57000

Median   5th Percentile           95th Percentile    Regression on Total Aggregated Load

MPL02                                                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
104
Percent UFE vs ERCOT Load
True-Up Settlement – 2007
7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0
Percent UFE

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0
22000    27000   32000            37000           42000       47000        52000         57000

Median   5th Percentile           95th Percentile     Regression on Total Aggregated Load

MPL03                                                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
105
Comparison of Median Percent UFE
Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
Percent UFE

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0
22000   27000     32000       37000         42000         47000         52000          57000

Initial       Final           True Up            Regression on Total Aggregated Load

MPL04                                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
106
Initial Settlement - 2007

200.0
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = \$601 per mWh
180.0

160.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
22000   27000    32000         37000          42000            47000        52000         57000

Median     5th Percentile            95th Percentile           Regression on MCPE vs Load

MPL05                                                                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
107
Final Settlement - 2007

200.0

Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = \$601 per mWh
180.0

160.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
22000   27000    32000         37000           42000           47000        52000         57000

Median     5th Percentile            95th Percentile           Regression on MCPE vs Load

MPL06                                                                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
108
True Up Settlement - 2007

200.0
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = \$601 per mWh
180.0

160.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
22000   27000    32000         37000           42000           47000        52000         57000

Median     5th Percentile            95th Percentile           Regression on MCPE vs Load

MPL07                                                                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
109
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs
Load for Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007

90.0

80.0

70.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
22000   27000         32000    37000         42000         47000         52000           57000

Initial       Final            True Up             Reg on MCPE vs Load

MPL08                                                                                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
110
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE
Initial Settlement - 2007

120.0

100.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
-15.0   -13.0    -11.0        -9.0        -7.0         -5.0         -3.0     -1.0       1.0       3.0          5.0
Percent UFE of Load

Median           5th Percentile           95th Percentile          Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE

MPL09                                                                                                                                                  UFE 2007 Analysis
111
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE
Final Settlement - 2007

200.0

180.0

160.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
-11.0     -9.0   -7.0        -5.0         -3.0        -1.0      1.0         3.0         5.0
Percent UFE of Load

Median    5th Percentile        95th Percentile      Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE

MPL10                                                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
112
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE
True-Up Settlement - 2007
300.0

250.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
-11.0     -9.0   -7.0        -5.0         -3.0        -1.0      1.0         3.0         5.0
Percent UFE of Load

Median    5th Percentile        95th Percentile      Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE

MPL11                                                                                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
113
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average
MCPE vs Percent UFE for
Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007
80.0

70.0
Load Weighted Average MCPE (\$/MWH)

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
-15.0   -13.0        -11.0       -9.0     -7.0          -5.0      -3.0        -1.0        1.0
Percent UFE of Load
Initial           Final            True UP          Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE

MPL12                                                                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
114
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFE
across the Week 2007
1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000
Dollars

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
Sun   Mon   Tue      Wed            Thu   Fri   Sat
Day of the Week

UCT02                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
115
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFE
across the Week 2007
0

-50,000

-100,000
Dollars

-150,000

-200,000

-250,000

-300,000
Sun   Mon   Tue          Wed        Thu   Fri   Sat

Day of the Week

UCT03                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
116
Sum of Dollars
from Absolute Value of UFE
across the Week 2007
1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000
Dollars

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
Sun   Mon   Tue       Wed           Thu   Fri    Sat
Day of the Week

UCT04                                                                    UFE 2007 Analysis
117
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE
across the Week 2007
1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000
Dollars

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

-200,000

-400,000
Sun   Mon   Tue       Wed           Thu   Fri    Sat
Day of the Week

UCT05                                                                   UFE 2007 Analysis
118
SUM of UFE Dollars
Compare All Seasons in 2007
Positive and Negative UFE
1,400,000   Spring: March 1 - April 30                                                                        1,400,000   Summer: May 1 - September 30
SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)                                                                                      SUM(+UFE)        SUM(-UFE)

1,200,000                                                                                                     1,200,000

1,000,000                                                                                                     1,000,000

800,000                                                                                                       800,000

Dollars
Dollars

600,000                                                                                                       600,000

400,000                                                                                                       400,000

200,000                                                                                                       200,000

0                                                                                                             0

-200,000                                                                                                      -200,000
Sun        Mon        Tue          Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat                                     Sun       Mon       Tue        Wed            Thu         Fri           Sat

Day of the Week                                                                                             Day of the Week

1,400,000   Fall: October 1 - November 30                           SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)                     1,400,000   Winter: December 1 - February 28
SUM(+UFE)        SUM(-UFE)

1,200,000                                                                                                     1,200,000

1,000,000                                                                                                     1,000,000

800,000                                                                                                        800,000
Dollars

600,000                                                                                            Dollars     600,000

400,000                                                                                                        400,000

200,000                                                                                                        200,000

0
0

-200,000
Sun        Mon        Tue          Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat                          -200,000
Sun       Mon       Tue        Wed            Thu              Fri       Sat
Day of the Week
Day of the Week

UCT06                                                                                                                                                                                               UFE 2007 Analysis
119
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

600,000    Spring: March 1 - April 30
SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)

500,000

400,000

300,000
Dollars

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000

-200,000
Sun        Mon        Tue        Wed           Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT07                                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
120
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

1,400,000   Summer: May 1 - September 30                      SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000
Dollars

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

-200,000
Sun       Mon      Tue         Wed          Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT08                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
121
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

350,000    Fall: October 1 - November 30                           SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000
Dollars

50,000

0

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000
Sun        Mon       Tue           Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT09                                                                                             UFE 2007 Analysis
122
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

700,000    Winter: December 1 - February 28
SUM(+UFE)   SUM(-UFE)

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000
Dollars

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000

-200,000
Sun        Mon       Tue       Wed            Thu       Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT10                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
123
SUM of UFE Dollars
Compare All Seasons in 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE
1,400,000   Spring: March 1 - April 30                           ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)                      1,400,000   Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

1,200,000                                                                                                   1,200,000

1,000,000                                                                                                   1,000,000

800,000                                                                                                     800,000
Dollars

Dollars
600,000                                                                                                     600,000

400,000                                                                                                     400,000

200,000                                                                                                     200,000

0                                                                                                          0

-200,000                                                                                                    -200,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri     Sat                                       Sun       Mon        Tue         Wed             Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week                                                                                               Day of the Week

1,400,000   Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)                      1,400,000   Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                  ABS (UFE)    Net (UFE)

1,200,000                                                                                                   1,200,000

1,000,000                                                                                                   1,000,000

800,000                                                                                                     800,000

Dollars
Dollars

600,000                                                                                                     600,000

400,000                                                                                                     400,000

200,000                                                                                                     200,000

0                                                                                                            0

-200,000                                                                                                    -200,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri     Sat                                        Sun       Mon           Tue       Wed            Thu         Fri      Sat

Day of the Week                                                                                               Day of the Week

UCT11                                                                                                                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
124
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

600,000    Spring: March 1 - April 30                           ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

500,000

400,000

300,000
Dollars

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000
Sun        Mon        Tue       Wed            Thu        Fri     Sat

Day of the Week

UCT12                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
125
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE
1,400,000   Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                           ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000
Dollars

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

-200,000
Sun       Mon       Tue     Wed             Thu       Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT13                                                                                       UFE 2007 Analysis
126
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

350,000    Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000
Dollars

100,000

50,000

0

-50,000

-100,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT14                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
127
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

700,000    Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000
Dollars

200,000

100,000

0

-100,000

-200,000
Sun        Mon           Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT15                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
128
Mean of UFE Dollars
Compare All Seasons in 2007
Positive and Negative UFE
70,000      Spring: March 1 - April 30                            Mean (+UFE)    Mean (-UFE)                    70,000    Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                                 Mean (+UFE)     Mean (-UFE)

60,000                                                                                                          60,000

50,000                                                                                                          50,000

40,000                                                                                                          40,000

30,000                                                                                                          30,000
Dollars

Dollars
20,000                                                                                                          20,000

10,000                                                                                                          10,000

0                                                                                                             0

-10,000                                                                                                         -10,000

-20,000                                                                                                         -20,000
Sun         Mon       Tue       Wed            Thu            Fri      Sat                                   Sun        Mon           Tue      Wed            Thu            Fri        Sat

Day of the Week                                                                                                Day of the Week

70,000          Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                   Mean (+UFE)    Mean (-UFE)                    70,000    Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                   Mean (+UFE)      Mean (-UFE)

60,000                                                                                                               60,000

50,000                                                                                                               50,000

40,000                                                                                                               40,000

30,000                                                                                                               30,000
Dollars

Dollars

20,000                                                                                                               20,000

10,000                                                                                                               10,000

0                                                                                                                 0

-10,000                                                                                                                 -10,000

-20,000                                                                                                                 -20,000
Sun         Mon        Tue       Wed             Thu           Fri       Sat                                   Sun        Mon           Tue       Wed            Thu             Fri        Sat

Day of the Week                                                                                                 Day of the Week

UCT16                                                                                                                                                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
129
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

70,000    Spring: March 1 - April 30                           Mean (+UFE)   Mean (-UFE)

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000
Dollars

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu           Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT17                                                                                            UFE 2007 Analysis
130
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

70,000    Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                           Mean (+UFE)   Mean (-UFE)

60,000

50,000

40,000
Dollars

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000
Sun       Mon       Tue      Wed            Thu           Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT18                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
131
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007
Positive and Negative UFE

40,000    Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                 Mean (+UFE)   Mean (-UFE)

30,000

20,000
Dollars

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu           Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT19                                                                                           UFE 2007 Analysis
132
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007
Positive and Negative UFE
70,000    Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                 Mean (+UFE)   Mean (-UFE)

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000
Dollars

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000
Sun        Mon           Tue      Wed            Thu           Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT20                                                                                              UFE 2007 Analysis
133
Mean of UFE Dollars
Compare All Seasons in 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE
75,000      Spring: March 1 - April 30                            ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)                     75,000   Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                                ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)
70,000                                                                                                      70,000
65,000                                                                                                      65,000
60,000                                                                                                      60,000
55,000                                                                                                      55,000
50,000                                                                                                      50,000
45,000                                                                                                      45,000
40,000                                                                                                      40,000
35,000                                                                                                      35,000
Dollars

Dollars
30,000                                                                                                      30,000
25,000                                                                                                      25,000
20,000                                                                                                      20,000
15,000                                                                                                      15,000
10,000                                                                                                      10,000
5,000                                                                                                       5,000
0                                                                                                        0
-5,000                                                                                                      -5,000
-10,000                                                                                                     -10,000
-15,000                                                                                                     -15,000
Sun         Mon       Tue      Wed             Thu        Fri      Sat                                  Sun         Mon          Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week
Day of the Week

75,000            Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                  ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)                    75,000    Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)
70,000                                                                                                           70,000
65,000                                                                                                           65,000
60,000                                                                                                           60,000
55,000                                                                                                           55,000
50,000                                                                                                           50,000
45,000                                                                                                           45,000
40,000                                                                                                           40,000
35,000                                                                                                           35,000
Dollars
Dollars

30,000                                                                                                           30,000
25,000                                                                                                           25,000
20,000                                                                                                           20,000
15,000                                                                                                           15,000
10,000                                                                                                           10,000
5,000                                                                                                        5,000
0                                                                                                            0
-5,000                                                                                                       -5,000

-10,000                                                                                                             -10,000

-15,000                                                                                                             -15,000
Sun        Mon           Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed             Thu       Fri       Sat

Day of the Week
Day of the Week

UCT21                                                                                                                                                                                             UFE 2007 Analysis
134
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

80,000    Spring: March 1 - April 30                           ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000
Dollars

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000
Sun         Mon        Tue     Wed             Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT22                                                                                         UFE 2007 Analysis
135
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

70,000    Summer: May 1 - Sept 30                           ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

60,000

50,000

40,000
Dollars

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000
Sun       Mon       Tue      Wed            Thu        Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT23                                                                                     UFE 2007 Analysis
136
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

40,000    Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000
Dollars

10,000

5,000

0

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000
Sun         Mon        Tue      Wed            Thu       Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT24                                                                                        UFE 2007 Analysis
137
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007
Absolute Value and Net UFE

60,000    Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28                                 ABS (UFE)   Net (UFE)

50,000

40,000

30,000
Dollars

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000
Sun        Mon           Tue      Wed            Thu       Fri      Sat

Day of the Week

UCT25                                                                                          UFE 2007 Analysis
138
UFE 2007 Analysis Observations

   Since 2002, Average and Median NET UFE as a
Percent of ERCOT Load continues to move in a
positive direction.
   Average and Median ABS UFE as a Percent of
ERCOT Load remained the same for 2006-2007. In
fact, for 2002-2007, Average and Median ABS UFE
as a Percent of ERCOT Load is trending downward.
   For 2003-2007, the Standard Deviation of NET UFE
as a Percent of ERCOT Load and ABS UFE as a
Percent of ERCOT Load are trending downward.
   Daily patterns of UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load
appear to be related to the magnitude of the load.

139                  UFE 2007 Analysis
Steps to Reduce UFE
   Improve Business Profile ID assignment process
   Improve models using Round 2 load research
data
   Implement settlement using 15 minute interval
data from AMI meters where appropriate
   Evaluate the application of lagged dynamic
profiling techniques to the ERCOT System
   Continue to evaluate improvements to algorithms
for missing AMI, IDR and NIDR data estimation
   To improve distribution loss estimations, PWG
should consider recommending that TDSP’s
perform updated loss studies.

140                  UFE 2007 Analysis

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