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u ECONOMY
p.2 u World Bank sees significant decline in remittances to the MENA
region
According to the latest Migration and Remittances Trends 2009, published by the World Bank, the
Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region has been experiencing weaker than projected remit-
tances flows, with the latter falling by 20% annually in the first half of 2009. Week
45
Also in this issue:
p.2 u EFG Hermes remains positive on the regional economic outlook
p.3 u IMF revises upward the UAE’s real GDP growth to 3% in 2010
p.3 u Jordan real estate sales down by 31% in the first 10 months of 2009 Oct 30 - Nov 6
p.3 u Nominal GDP in Qatar down by 4.3% in the second quarter of 2009 relative to the
previous quarter
2009
u SURVEYS
p.4 u Hotel occupancy in the Middle East down by 8.2% in the first nine
months of 2009
According to the data compiled by STR Global for the first nine months of 2009, the Middle East post-
ed a decline in all tree metrics used to measure hotel performance, namely hotel occupancy, average
daily rate, and revenues per available room.
Also in this issue:
p.4 u Bayt.com reports stronger hiring activity in the MENA region in the last quarter of
2009
u CORPORATE NEWS
p.5 u Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil win Iraq’s West Qurna field con-
tract
Iraq’s oil ministry declared that an ExxonMobil-led consortium, in cooperation with Royal Dutch
Shell, gained the right to develop the West Qurna oilfield in southeast Iraq.
Also in this issue:
p.5 u GASCO concludes four contracts for integrated gas development in the UAE
p.5 u Qatar’s Diar launches real estate projects in Sudan and Yemen
p.5 u SABIC and SINOPEC launch new petrochemical complex in China
u MARKETS IN BRIEF
p.6 u Arabian markets down by 1.9%, bucking the trend of global markets
Arabian equity markets plunged in the red during this week, moving down by 1.9% as per Morgan
Stanley Capital International Arabian Markets Index, while global equity markets rose by 2.4% week-
on-week, noting that stable oil prices at a relatively high level contributed to providing some support
to Arabian markets. The Egyptian Exchange was the worst performer during this week, falling by 5.5%
relative to the previous week, as foreigners sold blue chips though they started to show a buying inter-
est towards the end of the week and intensive selling pressures started to slowdown. Likewise, the UAE
markets ended in the red this week, moving down by 4.6% relative to the previous week. The Qatar
Exchange moved down by 2.2% week-on-week, undermined by telecommunication stocks. In Saudi
Arabia, the Tadawul closed 1.7% lower this week. The Bahrain Stock Exchange slipped by 1.2% week-
on-week, undermined by investment firms. The Kuwait Stock Exchange maintained a standstill mood
during this week in lack of local news that may drive the market. The KSE reported nil change in prices
and traded in low volumes.
The MENA Weekly Monitor can be accessed via Internet at the following web address: http://www.banqueaudi.com
Group Research Department
Bank Audi sal - Audi Saradar Group
Bank Audi Plaza, Bab Idriss, Riad El Solh - Beirut - Lebanon
P.O.Box : 11 - 2560 / Tel : (01) 994000 / Telefax : (01) 985622
Swift : AUDBLBBX - http://www.banqueaudi.com
u ECONOMY
World Bank sees significant decline in remittances Sudan are the two countries where the flow of remittances
to the MENA region up until now has been higher than previously projected by
According to the latest Migration and Development Brief the World. Indeed, the World Bank currently indicated that
2009, published by the World Bank this week, the Middle remittances into Lebanon in 2009 are projected to drop by
East and Northern Africa (MENA) region has been experi- a mere 2.5% to US$ 7.0 billion, against an earlier projection
encing weaker than projected remittances flows, with the of a plummet hovering around 12%. Similarly remittances
latter falling by 20% annually in the first half of 2009. into Sudan are forecasted to decline by a mere 1.3% in 2009
However, such remittances appear to have reached a bot- to reach US$ 3.0 billion.
tom already, and the only way for them to go now is back
up, and thus recovery is projected in 2010 and 2011, but the MENA Inward Remittances 2009 Growth Rate
recovery is likely to be shallow as per the World Bank. Country 2007 2008 2009
Morocco 23.5% 2.4% -17.0%
Egypt 43.6% 13.6% -10.3%
For the full-year 2009, the World Bank projected inward Jordan 19.1% 10.5% -3.8%
remittances into the MENA region to reach US$ 32.2 bil- Syria 3.6% 3.2% -2.7%
lion, down by 7.2% from the previous year. In fact, the rate Oman 0.0% 0.0% -2.6%
Lebanon 10.9% 24.5% -2.5%
of decline in remittances in the full-year 2009 is expected to Sudan 50.0% 75.2% -1.3%
ease down from the actual rate of decrease registered in the Tunisia 13.6% 9.0% -0.5%
first half of the year, due to the fact that the decline in remit- Yemen 3.0% 7.4% -0.5%
Algeria 31.7% 3.9% -0.4%
tances into the MENA region started in September 2008, West Bank and Gaza 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
following the outburst of the crisis, and thus the compari- Libya 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
son between full-year 2009 and full-year 2008 covers a cer- Total MENA 21.3% 15.3% -7.2%
tain low base in 2008. In 2010 and 2011, recovery is indeed
Sources: World Bank, Bank Audi’s Research Department
expected to be timid, as remittances into the MENA region
are forecasted to increase by 2.5% to reach US$ 33.0 billion
in 2010 and then rise by an additional 3.0% to US$ 34.0 bil- EFG Hermes remains positive on the regional eco-
lion in 2011. nomic outlook
According to the latest regional monthly issued by EFG
Hermes, the region’s main economic indicators continue to
MENA Remittances flows
look solid. EFG Hermes examined in its report both GCC
40
35
countries and non-GCC countries. Regarding the former
35 34
31 32
33 group of countries, the investment bank expected the same
30 expansionary fiscal stance to support their domestic
26
25 23
25 economies. Their ability and confidence to spend have been
20 boosted by the recent rally in oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Qatar
20
15 15
and the UAE will see the most potential from the
15 13 announced stimulus packages.
10
5 Looking at non-GCC countries, EFG Hermes examined
Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Algeria, and Morocco. The report
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f indicated that certain indicators of economic growth in
Sources: World Bank, Bank Audi’s Research Department
Egypt, ranging from electricity consumption to tourism
revenues were still robust in the third quarter of 2009.
Remittances to certain MENA countries were weaker than However, GDP estimates remained conservative due to
earlier projections by the World Bank. In particular, remit- skepticism about the global recovery. In Jordan, EFG
tances to Egypt, the largest recipient in the region declined Hermes lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2010, to
by 20% in the first half of 2009 versus the same period of 3% from 3.3%, following the government's September
last year. The same rate was recorded by Morocco for the announcement that it would seek to aggressively cut spend-
first eight months of 2009 on a yearly basis. For the full-year ing in 2010. In Lebanon, rapid capital inflows, including
2009, the World Bank anticipates that among MENA coun- remittances and a record tourism season are feeding higher
tries, Morocco will see the highest decline in remittances of domestic demand and import growth, generating higher tax
17.0%, followed by Egypt with a plunge of 10.3%. receipts.
On the other hand, empirical data suggests Lebanon and EFG Hermes also noted that Algeria continues to adopt an
2
expansionary fiscal position to contain effects of the global in the corresponding period of 2009. Consequently, rev-
crisis, despite the sharp fall in hydrocarbon revenue. enues collected by the said department declined by 36% to
Similarly, the Moroccan government is also adopting a US$ 3 billion from US$ 4.7 billion.
number of measures to support consumers' purchasing
power. The release shows that transactions resulting from property
purchases regressed from 79,488 in the first 10 months of
MENA Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2008 to 68,078 in the same period of 2009. Non-Jordanian
Nominal GDP Real Consumer Price Fiscal investors captured US$ 311.7 million during the said peri-
(US$ billion) GDP Index Balance/GDP
Egypt 213.8 4.5% 4.5% -8.3%
od of 2009, against US$ 218.6 million in the first
Jordan 21.9 3.3% -0.4% -6.5% 10 months of 2008: Iraqis came in first with US$
Lebanon 31.4 6.0% 3.0% -9.6%
Week
152.3 million, then American nationals with US$
45
Algeria 127.5 -2.2% 5.5% -11.2% 25.4 million, followed by Saudi Arabian nationals
Morocco 88.0 5.2% 1.4% -1.9%
Saudi Arabia 349.2 -1.3% 4.8% 0.6% with US$ 24 million.
UAE 194.4 -4.0% -5.3% 7.3%
Qatar 92.1 6.3% -5.2% 7.8% Oct 30 - Nov 6
Also, sales of residential apartments diminished
Oman
Kuwait
51.6
109.7
4.1%
-3.8%
2.5%
4.5%
-1.2%
19.1% from 18,723 to 16,710 despite the demand in the
2009
Bahrain 20.0 1.7% 1.2% -5.6% third quarter of 2009 surpassing the one viewed in
the first two quarters. Indeed, 8,006 apartments were sold in
Sources: EFG Hermes, Bank Audi's Research Department
the first six months of this year whereas purchases doubled
between July and October as per the department of Land and
IMF revises upward the UAE’s real GDP growth to Survey due to exemption from registration fees upon acquisi-
3% in 2010 tion valid until the end of the year. Therefore, real estate sales
The International Monetary Fund upgraded its United during the month of October 2009 totaled US$ 588.1 million,
Arab Emirates (UAE) real economic growth forecast for 35% better than August and September 2009 as well as 2%
2010 from 2.4% to 3%, as a result of the government’s pru-
higher than October 2008. The Department estimated exemp-
dent fiscal and monetary policies which aided in overcom-
tions at US$ 24.5 million since the decision taken in May.
ing the fall out of the global financial turmoil. The IMF
expected furthermore the real GDP to rise by 4.3% in 2011,
Nominal GDP in Qatar down by 4.3% in the sec-
and 5% in 2012. In the case of non-oil sector, real GDP
ond quarter of 2009 relative to the previous quar-
growth would reach 1% in 2009, 3% in 2010 and 4% in
ter
2011.
The latest preliminary official estimates released in Qatar
illustrate that the country’s nominal GDP lessened by 4.3%
As for other main macroeconomic indicators, the IMF con-
in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter
cluded that gross domestic investments are likely to attain of the year, caused by a drop in natural gas prices. When
28.7% of GDP in 2009 against 22.5% in 2008. The latter is compared to the same quarter of the previous year, nomi-
owed to a rising investor confidence as well as an improve- nal GDP declined by 29.7% in the second quarter of 2009.
ment of the investment environment. Moreover, the UAE is
set to maintain the same level of total domestic investment The second quarter’s sectoral overview reflects Qatari oil
in the following two years and then register 29.6% of GDP production remaining virtually unchanged despite the fat
in 2012. that crude prices improved from US$ 44 per barrel to US$
60 per barrel. As to liquefied natural gas, of which Qatar is
In terms of monetary indicators, the IMF expects inflation to the largest producer and exporter, its prices fell by 31%,
drastically contract to 1% in the current year compared to however oil price recovery offset this decline through the
12.2% in 2008. However, the consumer price index might rise in prices of condensate.
recover to 3% in 2010 and 4% in each of 2011 and 2012.
Further, in the second quarter of 2009 in Qatar, manufac-
Jordan real estate sales down by 31% in the first 10 turing GDP regressing by 4.7% on a quarterly basis, while
months of 2009 activity in the vibrant gas sector went down by 19.6%. On
According to numbers published by Jordan’s Department the other hand, the oil sector went up by 36.1%, and elec-
of Land and Survey, real estate sales dropped by 31% from tricity sector generation edged up significantly on the back
end-October 2008 to end-October 2009. As a matter of fact, of demands from several projects. Lastly, construction
the said indicator edged down from JD 5.4 million or US$ activity progressed by 2.6% in the second quarter of 2009
7.6 billion in the first 10 months of 2008 to US$ 5.2 billion over the first quarter of the same year.
3
u SURVEYS
Hotel occupancy in the Middle East down by 8.2% Around the MENA region, hiring propensity within the
in the first nine months of 2009 next three months reported mixed trends, coming as fol-
According to the data compiled by STR Global for the first lows: 34% of companies in Oman stressed on certainty in
nine months of 2009, the Middle East posted a decline in all recruitment and 23% were hesitant, Saudi Arabia came in
tree metrics used to measure hotel performance, namely second with a respective 31% and 27%, then Lebanon with
hotel occupancy, average daily rate, and revenues per avail- 30% and 34%. On the long run, Oman captured a stagger-
able room. Hotel occupancy registered an 8.2% decline in ing 57% share of companies definitely looking for potential
the first nine months of 2009, to reach 52.8% whereas aver- employees, followed by Algeria with 45%, then Saudi
age daily rate (ADR) decreased by 14.1% to reach US$ Arabia with 43% and Bahrain with 38%.
187.2. Regarding revenue per available room (RevPAR), it
edged down by 6.9% to pass from US$ 114.98 to US$ 98.81. Hiring expectancy by country for the next three months
Definitaly Probably Probably Definitely Don't
Hiring Hiring not hiring not hiring know
On a yearly basis, Beirut witnessed the largest increase in all Algeria 25% 34% 6% 5% 29%
measurements, with its occupancy progressing by 56.2% to Bahrain 22% 25% 13% 15% 25%
58.1%, its average daily rate moving up by 57.5% to US$ Egypt 24% 26% 8% 6% 36%
Jordan 22% 29% 11% 7% 31%
255.71 and its RevPAR heightening by 146.0% to US$ Kuwait 26% 27% 9% 4% 35%
148.70. The only other market witnessing an increase in Lebanon 30% 34% 4% 4% 27%
occupancy was Egypt with its average hotel occupancy ris- Morocco 23% 20% 6% 10% 41%
Oman 34% 23% 6% 6% 31%
ing by 2.6 % to 54.1 %; whereas the only other two markets Qatar 23% 32% 7% 4% 33%
reporting a double digit ADR increase were Amman with a Saudi Arabia 31% 27% 6% 5% 30%
17.9% increase for its ADR to reach US$ 134.71 and Cairo Syria 25% 28% 11% 3% 32%
Tunisia 24% 33% 8% 3% 33%
with a 15% rise for its ADR to become US$ 118.68.
UAE 25% 23% 10% 9% 32%
On the other hand, Riyadh experienced the largest occu- Source: Bayt.com, Bank Audi’s Research Department
pancy decrease, tumbling by 25.8% to 34.3%, then Muscat
with an 18.0% decrease to 37.0%. Dubai, United Arab In comparison with other Middle East countries, 49% con-
Emirates, posted the largest ADR decrease, falling by 8.3% sidered the United Arab Emirates as the most attractive job
to US$ 175.62, followed by Abu Dhabi, UAE, with a 6.8% market, and then 44% opted for Saudi Arabia, 38% for
decrease to US$ 200.52. Finally, three markets experienced Qatar, 28% for Kuwait and 24% for Lebanon. At an
RevPAR drop of more than 15%, namely Riyadh with a Industry Level, the ones perceived to draw the most quali-
21.3% drop for its RevPar to reach U$ 77.83, Abu Dhabi fied talents were: Banking & Finance with 32%, then
with a 16.9% decline for its RevPar to become US$ 129.92, telecommunications with 31%, followed by Construction
and Muscat with a fall of 15.3% for its RevPar to hit with 28% and Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals with 23%.
U$72.83.
When asked about the availability of jobs within the next
MEA for the month of September 2009 three months, 42% fell within the less than five jobs catego-
Occupancy ADR (US$) RevPAR (US$) ry, 24% answered that they will be offering 6 to 10 jobs, and
2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 on the other end, only 3% showed that more than 100
Middle East & Africa 62% 57% 139 141 86 80
Middle East 58% 53% 200 187 115 99
might be available. Junior staff is most likely to be recruited
Northern Africa 65% 64% 69 77 45 50 with 22% of firms looking for junior executives, 21%
replied that they would be hiring executives and 19% for
Source: STR Global, Bank Audi’s Research Department
senior executives.
Bayt.com reports stronger hiring activity in the Amongst important skills, 60% are looking for communi-
MENA region in the last quarter of 2009 cation skills in English and Arabic, 48% want team players,
Bayt.com, in collaboration with YouGov Siraj, published 39% give an importance to overall personality and 38%
“The Middle East Jobs Index Survey” for October 2009. require good leadership capacities. In terms of experience,
Based on a sample of 5,476 respondents, 26% assured that 34% view the managerial level as advantageous, 27% opt for
they will be hiring in the next three months whereas 26% sales and marketing, and 26% chose computer skills. As for
hinted towards a probability of additional recruitment. As the main educational qualifications, 21% emphasize respec-
for the long term outlook, 36% stated that they would be tively on engineering and business management, 19% on
hiring within a year and a likelihood of employment was commerce, 16% on computer science, and the same goes
said by 30% of recruiters. for administrative requirements.
4
u CORPORATE NEWS
Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil win Iraq’s storage tanks at the GASCO unit in Ruwais.
West Qurna field contract
Iraq’s oil ministry declared that an ExxonMobil-led consor- Established in 1971, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
tium, in cooperation with Royal Dutch Shell, gained the (ADNOC) operates in all areas of the oil and gas industry
right to develop the West Qurna oilfield in southeast Iraq. and since then has steadily broadened its activity establish-
The consortium, in which Exxon retains an 80% stake and ing companies and subsidiaries and creating an integrated
Shell 20%, has suggested enhancing the field’s production oil and gas industry in Abu Dhabi. The company currently
capacity to 2.325 million barrels per day from under manages and oversees oil production of more than 2.7 mil-
500,000 barrels per day currently. lion barrels a day which ranks it among the top ten oil and
gas companies in the world.
The consortium plans on spending around US$ 50 billion Week
Qatar’s Diar launches real estate project
in investment and operating costs for the project over the
upcoming six years. After the second round of bidding,
ExxonMobil and Shell agreed to Bagdad’s remuneration
offer of 1.90 dollars per additional barrel extracted from the
and Yemen
Qatari Diar Real Investment Company, in collab-
oration with Shibam Holding, launched the first
45
Oct 30 - Nov 6
phase of Al Rayyan Hills development project in
field.
Yemen.
2009
Worldwide oil and gas giant ExxonMobil is involved in the
exploration, production, transportation and sale of crude The project includes 239 villas, 245 high-end apartments,
oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. ExxonMobil 72 townhouses, a five-star hotel, in addition to office and
is also a major producer and marketer of commodity and retail areas.
specialty petrochemicals and has interests in electric power
According to company officials, the first phase of construc-
generation facilities. Global operations are well scattered
tions begins with 172 villas and residential tower along with
across the world, namely in Canada, the United States,
the basic infrastructure required for the development. The
Brazil, Australia, Norway, Russia, Libya, West Africa, Qatar,
venture widens to just about 440,000 square meters and is
China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. estimated to cost US$ 600 million over the next five years.
Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical compa- In Parallel, another Diar’s project, set in Sudan’s capital
nies. The parent company of the Shell group is Royal Dutch Khartoum, amounts to US$ 400 million. The 20.6 hectare
Shell plc, which is incorporated in England and Wales. The Mushaireb project would also include a 5-star hotel, resi-
company runs around 25 refineries and chemical plants. dential towers, as well as office and retail space. Diar would
Shell operates in more than 100 countries. take on the development of a waterfront corniche area
along the Nile to set up the area as a tourist attraction. The
GASCO concludes four contracts for integrated project, implemented by Consolidated Contractors Co.
gas development in the UAE (CCC), would witness a first phase completion before the
Abu Dhabi Gas Industries Limited (GASCO), on behalf of end of 2009 and design works are underway for the remain-
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), signed four ing phases, according to company sources.
deals estimated at around US$ 9.1 billion for Integrated Gas
Development (IGD) projects. SABIC and SINOPEC launch new petrochemical
complex in China
The most expensive contract totaling US$ 4.7 billion was Petrochemical giant Saudi Based Industries Corporation
given to a joint venture of Japan’s JGC and Italy’s (SABIC), in conjunction with Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec
Tecnimont for a process plant in Habshan, situated in the Corporation, inaugurated a 50%-50% joint venture based
south western part of Abu Dhabi. The second agreement in China. SINOPEC SABIC Tianjin Petrochemical Co is the
was captured by South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering and new project which cost US$ 2.7 billion, as declared in a
Construction with an amount of US$ 1.7 billion for the press conference.
developmental activities to be undertaken at Habshan 5
utilities and offsites. As for the third contract, estimated at According to the same source, the new complex holds an
around US$ 2.2 billion, it was offered to UAE’s Petrofac and annual production capacity of 3.2 million tons of various
South Korea’s GS Engineering to establish a Natural Gas chemical products including ethylene, and eight down-
Liquids/ Liquefied Petroleum Gas (NGL/LPG) fractional- stream products such as polyethylene, ethylene glycol,
ization capacity of 27,000 tons per day at the fourth NGL polypropylene, butadiene, phenol and butane. Moreover,
production line unit of GASCO at Ruwais situated at the the venture would reach 200 million tons in oil processing
west of Abu Dhabi. Finally, Chicago Bridge and Iron of the capacity and foresees an increase to 205 million tons in
United States won the US$ 534 million contract to set up 2010.
5
u CAPITAL MARKETS
The Egyptian equity prices fell by 5.5% week-on- The UAE markets ended in the red this week, moving down
week by 4.6% relative to the previous week. As a result, the total
Arabian equity markets plunged in the red during this week, trading value for the week dropped by 21.5% to US$ 1,329.2
moving down by 1.9% as per Morgan Stanley Capital million. There was no stock specific news flowing to the
International Arabian Markets Index, while global equity market. Emaar Properties lost about 5.5% this week, closing
markets rose by 2.4% week-on-week, noting that stable oil at AED 4.15, as investors worried about the pace of the
prices at a relatively high level contributed to provide some recent rally pushing prices ahead of fundamentals. In fact,
support to Arabian markets. Emaar finished at a year-high late October (AED 4.39).
Moody’s maintained Emaar Properties ratings at Baa1, on
The Egyptian Exchange was the worst performer this week, review for downgrade, pending the completion of its assess-
falling by 5.5% relative to the previous week, as foreigners ment of the impact of the proposed merger of Emaar with
sold blue chips though both foreign and Arab investors DHCOG’s real estate operations. Deyaar Development’s
started to show a buying interest towards the end of the share price ended 6.4% lower this week at AED 0.73. Deyaar
week and intensive selling pressures started to slow down. said that it doesn’t plan any more job cuts after laying off
Given the slump in prices week-on-week, the total trading 20% of its staff last week and is aligning its strategy with a
value dropped by 22.3% to reach US$ 820.9 million. crisis-hit property market by looking at building low-cost
Orascom Construction Industries’ share price fell by 6.9% housing and bringing eldery home developments to the
to LE 242. Orascom Telecom Holding’s share price slipped Middle East.
by 6.0% to LE 34.87. Mobinil’s share price closed 5.0%
lower this week at LE 199.60. Credit Suisse raised Mobinil’s The Qatar Exchange moved down by 2.2% week-on-week,
target price to LE 230 from LE 215, yet lowered its earnings undermined by telecommunication stocks. Despite the fall
forecasts by 1.9% for 2009 and 4.5% for 2010. Commercial in prices, the trading value ended 20.7% higher to US$ 464.4
International Bank’s share price closed 2.9% lower at LE million, due to a surge in traded volumes. Vodafone Qatar
55.31. It is worth mentioning that CI Capital expected CIB was among the top losers, tumbling by 4.3% to QAR 8.90.
to post third quarter net profit of LE 418.3 million com- The company reported a net loss of QAR 349.4 million for
pared with LE 275 million a year ago. Their quarterly fore- the six-month period ending September 30, its first set of
casts were based on 47.8% higher non-interest income year- results since listing in July 22, 2009 and completing its US$
on-year, 6.4% lower provisional charge y-o-y, and 9.7% 1 billion IPO in April. Nomura upgraded Vodafone Qatar to
lower non-interest expense y-o-y. Talaat Mostafa Group’s buy from neutral rating and assigned a fair value of at least
share price dropped by 3.6% to reach LE 7.04. CI Capital QAR 12. As to the bond market, Commercial Bank of Qatar,
expected TMG third-quarter net profit to reach LE 315 mil- the country’s second largest bank by assets, said it will begin
lion versus LE 463 million in year earlier period, and a roadshow that may be followed by a US$ 500 million bond
assigned it a strong buy rating. sale in global debt markets.
CAPITAL MARKETS INDICATORS
Price Week-on Trading Week-on Volume Market Turnover
Market Year-to-date P/E P/BV
Index -week Value -week Traded Capitalization ratio
Lebanon 146.4 0.7% 29.4% 31.8 97.4% 1.4 11,963.6 13.8% 9.6 1.43
Jordan 148.3 -2.0% -8.7% 141.5 -38.8% 79.6 31,952.8 23.0% 14.6 1.83
Egypt 824.7 -5.5% 39.4% 820.9 -22.3% 408.8 90,011.3 47.4% 12.0 1.92
Saudi Arabia 396.2 -1.7% 35.9% 6,976.4 -6.6% 1,043.9 328,525.7 110.4% 21.1 2.09
Qatar 613.4 -2.2% 0.8% 464.4 20.7% 58.3 88,256.4 27.4% 12.7 2.12
UAE 257.0 -4.6% 49.5% 1,329.2 -21.5% 2,205.9 148,278.1 46.6% 12.6 1.22
Oman 836.2 -0.5% 19.4% 73.3 -72.2% 73.6 17,278.3 22.1% 12.7 1.82
Bahrain 369.0 -1.2% -28.6% 3.3 -20.5% 5.8 17,285.1 1.0% 10.8 1.12
Kuwait 632.1 0.0% 1.9% 765.6 -20.5% 1,454.1 105,100.7 37.9% 21.1 1.45
Morocco 445.8 -1.1% -1.7% 53.5 2.5% 1.7 66,994.9 4.2% 19.5 3.89
Tunisia 1,140.6 0.4% 24.7% - - 2.5 8,919.5 - - -
Arabian Markets 495.0 -1.9% 23.3% 10,660.0 -12.1% 5,333.1 905,646.9 61.2% 16.2 1.79
Values in US$ million; volumes in millions
Sources: MSCI Barra, Zawya Investor, Bank Audi's Research Department
NB: Tunisia's figures are not all available yet, and have therefore been excluded from aggregate Arabian Markets figures
6
In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul closed 1.7% lower week-on- investment bank in Dubai by next year.
week, yet some petrochemical stocks saw a rise in prices, as
firmer crude oil prices supported their performance. The Kuwait Stock Exchange maintained a standstill mood
Deutsche Bank said that the region’s largest equity market is during this week in lack of local news that may drive the
attractively valued. The market, according to the same market. The KSE reported nil change in prices and traded in
source, has healthy growth prospects, and offers a relatively low volumes. As such, the total trading value for the week
low correlation with other equity markets. In addition, tumbled by 20.5% relative to previous week, reaching US$
Deutsche Bank saw that the current stock prices in the 765.6 million. Zain’s share price remained unchanged at
Saudi Exchange don’t reflect the Kingdom’s long-term eco- KWD 1.16, with investors remaining vulnerable
nomic growth prospects, or the bank’s estimate of a “V- to any news about possible merger & acquisition. Week
shaped recovery” with growth of 3.8% in 2010. National Bank of Kuwait’s share price didn’t
The Bahrain Stock Exchange slipped by 1.2% week-on-
week, undermined by investment firms. United Gulf Bank
change week-on-week, standing at KWD 1.20.
Boubyan Bank’s share price remained unchanged
at KWD 0.52. The bank posted a third-quarter
45
Oct 30 - Nov 6
said that its third-quarter net profit plunged to just US$ 3.3 net loss of KWD 5.5 million, compared a net 2009
million, from US$ 277.4 million during the corresponding profit of KWD 5.6 million in the corresponding
period of last year. It is worth mentioning that Ithmaar period of the previous year. In general, investors targeted
Bank, Gulf Finance House and Abu Dhabi Investment blue-chips stocks, as they found value in the latter after the
House plan to launch their joint infrastructure-focused recent slide.
Equity Markets Performance: Arab Markets v/s Benchmarks
Base period = year-end 2006
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
30-Oct-08 30-Nov-08 31-Dec-08 31-Jan-09 28-Feb-09 31-Mar-09 30-Apr-09 31-May-09 30-Jun-09 31-Jul-09 31-Aug-09 30-Sep-09 30-Oct-09
MSCI Arabian Markets MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Global Markets
Fixed Income Markets Performance: Arab Markets v/s Benchmarks
150 Base period = year-end 2006
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
30-Oct-08 30-Nov-08 31-Dec-08 31-Jan-09 28-Feb-09 31-Mar-09 30-Apr-09 31-May-09 30-Jun-09 31-Jul-09 31-Aug-09 30-Sep-09 30-Oct-09
JP Morgan EMBI Global Middle East Cumulative Total Return Index JP Morgan EMBI Global Cumulative Total Return Index
7
SOVEREIGN RATINGS
Standard & Poor's Moody's Fitch EIU
LEVANT
Lebanon B-/Stable/C B2/Stable B-/Stable/B CCC/Stable
Syria NR NR NR CCC/Stable
Jordan BB/Stable/B Ba2/Stable NR CCC/Stable
Egypt BB+/Stable/B Ba1/Stable BB+/Stable/B BB/Stable
Iraq NR NR NR CC/Stable
GULF
Saudi Arabia AA-/Stable/A-1+ A1/Positive AA-/Stable/F1+ BBB/Stable
UAE AA/Stable/A-1+ Aa2/Stable AA/Stable/F1+ BB/Stable
Qatar AA-/Stable/A-1+ Aa2/Stable NR A/Stable
Kuwait AA-/Stable/A-1+ Aa2/Negative AA/Stable/F1+ A/Stable
Bahrain A/Stable/A-1 A2/Negative A/Stable/F1 BBB/Stable
Oman A/Stable/A-1 A2/Stable NR A/Stable
Yemen NR NR NR CC/Stable
NORTH AFRICA
Algeria NR NR NR BBB/Stable
Morocco BB+/Stable/B Ba1/Stable BBB-/Stable/F3 BB/Stable
Tunisia BBB/Stable/A-3 Baa2/Stable BBB/Stable/F2 BB/Stable
Libya A-/Stable/A-2 NR BBB+/Stable/F2 BB/Stable
Sudan NR NR NR C/Stable
NR = Not Rated
INTERNATIONAL MARKET RATES
06-Nov-09 30-Oct-09 31-Dec-08 Weekly change Year-to-date change
US Prime Rate 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 0.00% 0.00%
3-M Libor 0.27% 0.28% 1.43% -0.01% -1.15%
US Discount Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00%
US 10-year bond 3.50% 3.39% 2.22% 0.11% 1.28%
FX RATES (per US$)
06-Nov-09 30-Oct-09 31-Dec-08 Weekly change Year-to-date change
LEVANT
Lebanese Pound (LBP) 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 0.0% 0.0%
Syrian Pound (SYP) 45.85 45.95 46.45 -0.2% -1.3%
Jordanian Dinar (JOD) 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.0% 0.1%
Egyptian Pound (EGP) 5.47 5.47 5.49 -0.1% -0.4%
Iraqi Dinar (IQD) 1,150.00 1,150.00 1,155.00 0.0% -0.4%
GULF
Saudi Riyal (SAR) 3.75 3.75 3.75 0.0% 0.0%
UAE Dirham (AED) 3.67 3.67 3.67 0.0% 0.0%
Qatari Riyal (QAR) 3.64 3.64 3.64 0.0% 0.0%
Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.0% 3.5%
Bahraini Dinar (BHD) 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.0% 0.0%
Omani Riyal (OMR) 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.0% 0.0%
Yemeni Riyal (YER) 203.00 202.95 199.55 0.0% 1.7%
NORTH AFRICA
Algerian Dinar (DZD) 72.10 70.99 69.44 1.6% 3.8%
Moroccan Dirham (MAD) 7.66 7.69 8.01 -0.4% -4.4%
Tunisian Dinar (TND) 1.29 1.30 1.31 -0.8% -1.6%
Libyan Dinar (LYD) 1.21 1.21 1.24 0.0% -2.5%
Sudanese Pound (SDG) 2.27 2.27 2.18 -0.4% 3.8%
COMMODITIES (in US$)
06-Nov-09 30-Oct-09 31-Dec-08 Weekly change Year-to-date change
Crude oil barrel (Brent) 75.3 74.0 39.8 1.7% 88.9%
Gold ounce 1,094.7 1,044.4 878.2 4.8% 24.6%
Silver ounce 17.4 16.3 11.3 6.7% 53.6%
Platinum ounce 1,340.5 1,322.5 924.5 1.4% 45.0%
Treasury and Capital Markets Group Research Department
CONTACTS
Nabil Chaya (961-1) 977422 nabil.chaya@banqueaudi.com Marwan Barakat (961-1) 977409 marwan.barakat@banqueaudi.com
Emile Shalala (961-1) 977622 emile.shalala@banqueaudi.com Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 jamil.naayem@banqueaudi.com
Salma Saad Baba (961-1) 977346 salma.baba@banqueaudi.com
Private Banking Rita Daher (961-1) 977575 rita.daher@banqueaudi.com
Toufic Aouad (961-1) 329328 toufic.aouad@audisaradarpb.com Rana Helou (961-1) 964763 rana.helou@banqueaudi.com
Lea Korkmaz (961-1) 964904 lea.korkmaz@banqueaudi.com
Corporate Banking Fadi Kanso (961-1) 977470 fadi.kanso@banqueaudi.com
Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com Nathalie Ghorayeb (961-1) 964047 nathalie.ghorayeb@banqueaudi.com
