Regression-equation-1 -v2

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					              Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression



              Question:

              Deriving the regression equation, testing the model fit and obtain confidence
              interval for a given values.
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              The data below contains the population of the United States for the years 1930 through 1999. Fit a
              linear trend to these data.

              a) What is the resulting regression equation?

              b) What percentage of the variation in y has been explained by the regression?

              c) Based on your answer in part b and on any other regression results you obtain, how well does the
              equation fit the data? Does a good fit ensure that forecasts for future years will be accurate?

              d) Use the equation developed to predict the U.S. population in the years 2000 and 2001. Find a point
              prediction and a 95% prediction interval.

              e) How reliable do you believe the forecast in part d might be? What factors might influence this
              accuracy?

               YEAR         POPULATION

               1930         123,076,741

               1931         124,039,648

               1932         124,840,471

               1933         125,578,763




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              Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression


               1934         126,373,773

               1935         127,250,232

               1936         128,053,180

               1937         128,824,829

               1938         129,824,939

               1939         130,879,718

               1940         132,122,446

               1941         133,402,471

               1942         134,859,553

               1943         136,739,353

               1944         138,397,345

               1945         139,928,165

               1946         141,388,566

               1947         144,126,071

               1948         146,631,302

               1949         149,188,130

               1950         152,271,417




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*The Homework solutions from ClassOf1 are intended to help the student understand the approach to solving the problem and not for submitting the same in
                                                      lieu of your academic submissions for grades.
              Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression


               1951         154,877,889

               1952         157,552,740

               1953         160,184,192

               1954         163,025,854

               1955         165,931,202

               1956         168,903,031

               1957         171,984,130

               1958         174,881,904

               1959         177,829,628

               1960         180,671,158

               1961         183,691,481

               1962         186,537,737

               1963         189,241,798

               1964         191,888,791

               1965         194,302,963

               1966         196,560,338

               1967         198,712,056




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*The Homework solutions from ClassOf1 are intended to help the student understand the approach to solving the problem and not for submitting the same in
                                                      lieu of your academic submissions for grades.
              Sub: Statistics                                  
				
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