# Regression-equation-1 -v2

Document Sample

```					              Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression

Question:

Deriving the regression equation, testing the model fit and obtain confidence
interval for a given values.
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The data below contains the population of the United States for the years 1930 through 1999. Fit a
linear trend to these data.

a) What is the resulting regression equation?

b) What percentage of the variation in y has been explained by the regression?

c) Based on your answer in part b and on any other regression results you obtain, how well does the
equation fit the data? Does a good fit ensure that forecasts for future years will be accurate?

d) Use the equation developed to predict the U.S. population in the years 2000 and 2001. Find a point
prediction and a 95% prediction interval.

e) How reliable do you believe the forecast in part d might be? What factors might influence this
accuracy?

YEAR         POPULATION

1930         123,076,741

1931         124,039,648

1932         124,840,471

1933         125,578,763

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Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression

1934         126,373,773

1935         127,250,232

1936         128,053,180

1937         128,824,829

1938         129,824,939

1939         130,879,718

1940         132,122,446

1941         133,402,471

1942         134,859,553

1943         136,739,353

1944         138,397,345

1945         139,928,165

1946         141,388,566

1947         144,126,071

1948         146,631,302

1949         149,188,130

1950         152,271,417

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Sub: Statistics                                                                         Topic: Regression

1951         154,877,889

1952         157,552,740

1953         160,184,192

1954         163,025,854

1955         165,931,202

1956         168,903,031

1957         171,984,130

1958         174,881,904

1959         177,829,628

1960         180,671,158

1961         183,691,481

1962         186,537,737

1963         189,241,798

1964         191,888,791

1965         194,302,963

1966         196,560,338

1967         198,712,056

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