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In the spotlight

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International institutions revised upwards their autumn forecasts for economic growth in their main trading partners, while emphasizing that the recovery will be slow and fairly uncertain. Data on economic activity in Slovenia indicate stabilization, or even a slight improvement in certain sectors in the summer months, but the values of main indicators were nevertheless significantly lower y-o-y in August. The average gross wage per employee dropped in August due a decline in private sector wages; in the public sector, a new agreement was reached in October on measures regarding public sector wages in the following two years. Lending activity of Slovenian banks also remained modest in September; the volume of government deposits strengthened significantly again, as the government invested the bulk of proceeds from the third bond issuance this year in short-term bank deposits.

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									                                                                      Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009        3
                                                                                               In the Spotlight



In the spotlight
International institutions revised upwards their autumn forecasts for economic growth in our main
trading partners, while emphasising that the recovery will be slow and fairly uncertain. In light of a gradual
improvement of certain indicators over the last few months (world trade, situation on financial markets, sentiment
indicators), and particularly the positive effects on economic growth of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures by
governments and central banks, international institutions (EC, IMF) revised upwards their autumn forecasts for
our main trading partners, especially for the coming year. However, given the temporary nature of these stimulus
measures, they point out that the recovery will still be sluggish and uncertain, and marked particularly by further
unemployment growth.

Data on economic activity in Slovenia indicate stabilisation, or even a slight improvement in certain sectors in
the summer months, but the values of main indicators were nevertheless significantly lower y-o-y in August.
According to seasonally adjusted data, the values of nominal merchandise exports and the volume of production in
manufacturing increased in the last four months, except in July. The values of real turnover in retail trade and hotels
and restaurants remained at approximately the same level, while the value of construction put in place continued
to decline. The values of all five indicators remained up to one fifth lower y-o-y. The solvency of enterprises has been
deteriorating notably since October 2008, given that in the first nine months of this year 40.7% more legal entities
had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five days in a month, and the average value of their outstanding
matured liabilities was nearly 75% higher than in the similar period last year. The value of the sentiment indicator
declined in October for the first time since March, particularly due to lower consumer confidence.

The number of persons in employment continued to decline in August. Unemployment growth accelerated
further in October, with the number of registered unemployed reaching 94,591 by the end of the month. The
number of employed persons declined by 0.2% in August (seasonally adjusted), being 3.0% lower than a year before.
The number of employed persons c
								
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