Supply, demand and characteristics of the Higher Degree by by pnq12387

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									 BHERT Academic Workforce Roundtable
                         23 November 2009


    Supply, demand and characteristics of the Higher
      Degree by Research population in Australia –
    challenges and opportunities for Australia’s future
                   research workforce


Dr Joanne Bright
Research Funding and Policy Branch
Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research
Overview

•   How are we tracking in meeting our research
    workforce needs?
       Supply, demand and characteristics of Australia’s
       higher degree by research population – ACER report
       for DIISR

•   What challenges and opportunities will influence
    supply and demand in the future?
       Post-Bradley undergraduate participation targets
       Implications of an increasingly innovation-driven
       economy

•   How can we prepare ourselves to meet these
    challenges and capture these opportunities?
       Research Workforce Strategy
         ACER report for DIISR – background
•    A number of 2008 reviews and inquiries identifying research training
     and research workforce issues:

         Review of the National Innovation System
         Review of Australian Higher Education
         House of Representatives Inquiry into Research Training and Research
         Workforce Issues in Australian Universities

->   May 2009 - Powering Ideas: An Innovation Agenda for the 21st
     Century

         Outlines the Australian Government’s intention to develop a Research
         Workforce Strategy

•    ACER study commissioned by the Department in early 2009 to:

     •   Identify and map the available primary, secondary and international data
         sources required to predict current and future demand for researcher training;
     •   Identify the current levels of supply and demand for higher degree by research
         (HDR) qualifications, from both the public and private sector, and map the
         current work placement of people with HDR qualifications;
     •   Develop predictions for the future levels of supply and demand for HDR
         qualifications;
     •   Estimate whether future supply (in 2020) will meet demand, and if not, what
         factors will need to be adjusted to ensure that it will; and
     •   Identify gaps in the available data that are critical for informing a long-term
         research workforce strategy
                                        ACER report for DIISR - some characteristics
                                        of Australia’s doctorate population - 1

                           35.0
                                              Doctorate population
                                              All professional workers
                                                                                                                               Key Points (2006 Census data):
                           30.0

                           25.0
Per cent of population




                           20.0
                                                                                                                                  Australia’s doctorate population is
                                                                                                                               older than the professional workforce
                           15.0
                                                                                                                               as a whole
                           10.0

                                 5.0

                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                  66% of doctoral holders are male
                                              15-19          20-29       30-39        40-49       50-64         65+            and 34% female, with more equitable
                                                                              Age group
                                                                                                                               distribution of males/females in the
                                                                                                                               younger age brackets
                                       65+


                                      50-64                                                                                      52% of doctoral holders were born
                                                                                                                               in Australia. Of the overseas-born
                         Age groups




                                      40-49

                                                                                                                               population, the majority came from an
                                      30-39
                                                                                                                               English-speaking country
                                      20-29

                                                      Male                                                Female
                                      15-19


                                         20,000        15,000        10,000        5,000          00         5,000    10,000

                                                                              Number of persons


                            Source for charts: ACER, Supply, Demand, and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009
         ACER report for DIISR - some characteristics
         of Australia’s doctorate population - 2
•   Employed Doctorate Population by Broad Occupation
    Category, 2006 (Per Cent):
    •        Majority (78.8%) of those with doctorate qualification who are
             employed are working in occupations classified as “professional”
    •        Most common occupations “university and vocational education
             teachers” and “natural and physical sciences professionals”
    •        Employment prosects for those with doctorate qualifications are
             relatively good


                             Labourers and Related Workers

              Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service Workers

            Intermediate Production and Transport Workers

            Intermediate Clerical, Sales and Service Workers

                     Advanced Clerical and Service Workers

                        Tradespersons and Related Workers

                                     Associate Professionals

                                               Professionals

                               Managers and Administrators

                                                               0.0   10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

                                                                        Proportion of employed persons


        Source: ACER, Supply, Demand, and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009
          ACER report for DIISR - some characteristics
          of Australia’s doctorate population - 3
  •       Employed Doctorate Population by Industry of
          Occupation (ANZSIC) and Sector, 2006:
          •        Education and Training industry is the largest industry
                   employing doctorate qualified people, followed by
                   Professional Scientific and Technical Services and Health
                   Care and Social Assistance
          •        The majority of doctorates are employed in the public
                   sector
       Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
                                                                                                     Public Sector
          Accommodation and Food Services
                                                                                                     Private Sector
                                   Construction
          Transport, Postal and Warehousing
         Administrative and Support Services
   Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
                                     Retail Trade
                                          Mining
Information Media and Telecommunications
               Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
                               Wholesale Trade
                  Arts and Recreation Services
                                 Other Services
               Financial and Insurance Services
                                 Manufacturing
              Public Administration and Safety            5,103       405
              Health Care and Social Assistance         2,527   4,356
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services      2,176           9,019
                        Education and Training                                      24,549                                       4,022

                                                    0           5,000        10,000         15,000        20,000        25,000           30,000

                                                                              Number of persons employed

          Source: ACER, Supply, Demand and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009
  ACER report for DIISR - estimating Australia’s supply
  of doctorates
1: Supply from domestic doctorate completions
                                              5,000

                                              4,500            Doctorate by Research
                                                                                                             4,405
                                                                                                                                                         + 3: Migration
                                              4,000            Masters by Research                                                                     supply (average
                                                                                                                                                       annual estimated
                     Number of completions




                                              3,500

                                              3,000
                                                                                                                                                         arrivals with
                                              2,500
                                                       2,326                                                                                              doctorate)
                                              2,000

                                              1,500
                                                       1,494
                                              1,000                                                         1,101

                                               500

                                                 0
                                                     1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007



+ 2: Supply from international doctorate completions
   (completions – proportion departing Australia)
                                             1,400
                                                                                                                     1,316                                                         Annual    Share
                                                               Doctorate by Research                                                                                              estimate     of
                                             1,200                                                                                      Supply components
                                                               Masters by Research                                                                                                d supply   suppl
                                             1,000                                                                                                                                numbers    y (%)
    Number of completions




                                              800

                                                                                                                                        Domestic student supply                      4,405    78.0
                                              600
                                                       579
                                                                                                                                        International student
                                                                                                                                                                                      658     11.6
                                              400                                                                                       supply*
                                                                                                                     319                Migrant supply^                               587     10.4
                                              200      273

                                                                                                                                        Total estimated annual
                                                0                                                                                                                                    5,650   100.0
                                                                                                                                        doctorate supply
                                                 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007




                                               Source for charts: ACER, Supply, Demand, and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009
    ACER report for DIISR - estimating Australia’s future
    demand for doctorates
Estimating future demand:
                                                                            30,000

•     CoPS-MONASH model used to estimate
                                                                            25,000
      workforce demand for doctorates to 2019-
      2020




                                                  stimated workforce size
                                                                            20,000


                                                                            15,000
•     Incorporates population-based
      assumptions and a range of imputed                                    10,000
      macro- and micro-economic details about




                                                 E
      the Australian and global economy to                                   5,000

      produce estimates
                                                                                0
                                                                                2007-8                      2011-2                2015-6     2019-20
•     Predicts 47.9% increase in doctoral                                                                            Year
                                                                                         Post School Education         Scientific Research
      employment between 2007-08 and 2019-
                                                                                         Government Administration     Technical Services
      2020 compared to 16.6% growth of
      Australian workforce as a whole
                                                                                     ∆ Post School Education 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 7.7%
•     Largest growth in government                                                   ∆ Scientific Research 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 42.0%
      administration, scientific research and                                        ∆ Government Administration 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 58.9%
      technical services and in science,                                             ∆ Technical Services 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 58.5%
      environmental science and social science
      fields of education
    ACER report for DIISR - estimating Australia’s future
    supply of doctorates
Estimating future supply:                                                                                     10,000

                                                                                                               9,000




                                                                            Number of doctorate completions
                                                                                                               8,000
•    Projections based on 2007 student
     completion data, MoDEM 2.0                                                                                7,000

     population projections by age, and                                                                        6,000

     assumptions of age-based completion                                                                       5,000

     rates                                                                                                     4,000
                                                                                                                                                       Scenario 1
                                                                                                               3,000
                                                                                                                                                       Scenario 2
                                                                                                               2,000
•    4 scenarios explored:                                                                                                                             Scenario 3
                                                                                                               1,000                                   Secenario 4
          Aged-based completion rates remain
                                                                                                                  0
          same
          Age-based completion rates increase
          by 2% for each age group
          Age-based completion rates for 25-29
          and 30-39 year age groups increase                                                                           Scenario 1∆ 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 18.7%

          annually by 2% but other groups                                                                              Scenario 2 ∆ 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 53.6%

          remain steady                                                                                                Scenario 3 ∆ 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 40.8%
                                                                                                                       Scenario 4 ∆ 2007-08 to 2019-20 = 110.0%
          Previous decade growth in
          completions is sustained (i.e.
          completions double over next decade)

       Source for charts: ACER, Supply, Demand, and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009
ACER report to DIISR - will supply be sufficient to meet
demand?
                                                                8.0




                  Yearly completions as a percentage of total
                                                                7.0

                                                                6.0



                              workforce size (%)
                                                                5.0

                                                                4.0

                                                                3.0                               Scenario 1
                                                                                                  Scenario 2
                                                                2.0                               Scenario 3
                                                                                                  Scenario 4
                                                                1.0

                                                                0.0
                                                                  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

       Source for charts: ACER, Supply, Demand, and Characteristics of the Higher Degree by Research Population in Australia, June 2009

   Estimating match between supply and demand:

   •        Assume demand met if supply keeps pace with growth in the workforce (i.e.
            in 2008 estimated domestic doctorate completions was 5.2% of total
            projected doctoral workforce size – assume demand met if maintained)
   •        Scenarios 4 would see a potential over supply of doctorates, while scenarios
            1 and 3 would see a potential under supply.
   •        Supply would be met with a modest increase in age-based completions
            across all age-groups (scenario 2)
                  But is this the full story?

•   Impact of recent policy and wider economic developments:
        post Bradley participation targets; and
        impact of expansion of R&D across economy in response to new drivers such as
        climate change
•   Stalled growth in domestic doctorate commencements since 2003
•   Concerns regarding a perceived lack of clear career paths for graduates,
    attractiveness of academic profession, and the adequacy of the research
    training system in preparing students for varied career outcomes

                         Doctorate by Research commencements and completions, 1997 - 2008

         7,000


         6,000


         5,000

                                                                                     Domestic commencing
         4,000
                                                                                     Domestic completions
                                                                                     International commencing
         3,000
                                                                                     International completions

         2,000


         1,000


            0
                 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



         Source: DEEWR University Statistics – published and unpublished data
Where to from here? - Research Workforce Strategy
   • Background:
        Powering Ideas – Government commitment to develop
      a research workforce strategy to underpin its research
      reform agenda.

   • Scope:
       The strategy will examine issues impacting on
      Australia’s capacity to build and maintain a research
      workforce that meets its future needs

        Examination will include all employers of researchers
      in Australia – universities, businesses, not-for-profit
      organisations etc

        The strategy will specifically examine key issues
      raised in the House of Representatives Inquiry into
      Research Training and Research Workforce Issues

        The strategy will look ahead to 2020
Research Workforce Strategy – Some key
challenges
    • Data issues:
         Lack of information in key areas e.g. research career
         paths
         Difficulty in capturing relevant groups e.g. masters by
         research graduates
    • Supply issues:
         Attrition evident but story behind it not clear
         Research training quality and support mechanisms
         require further examination
    • Demand issues:
         Need to better understand demand for research
         qualified individuals and extent to which supply is
         matching workforce needs
         Need to better understand the relationship between
         Australia’s active research workforce and its potential
         research workforce
Research Workforce Strategy – Some key challenges

                             Emigration                    Retirement
        Domestic HDR




    International HDR                     Active researchers



         Technicians



                                      Potential research workforce
     Overseas researchers



     • Need to better understand the relationship between:

             Australia’s potential research workforce (higher degree by
           research qualified individuals); and

             Australia’s active research workforce (researchers and technical
           staff actively engaged in research activities)
Research Workforce Strategy – Some specific
challenges for the academic workforce
  • Supply issues:
       Understanding the role of high quality research training
       environments in attracting students to academic careers
       and building required competencies

  • Demand issues:
       Understanding the combined impact of new undergraduate
       participation targets and the ageing profile of the academic
       workforce on both supply and demand (both gross and at
       disciplinary level)

  • Career pathway issues:
       Understanding how to best support progression through the
       various stages of an academic career
         o Accommodating family and other responsibilities
         o Providing appropriate professional development
           opportunities
       Maintaining the intellectual and physical environments
       conducive to high quality research and retention of research
       staff
Research Workforce Strategy - Progress


 • Progress:
        Establishment of Reference Group to support the
     strategy’s development

       Establishment of Subgroups: Employer Demand,
     Research Training Experience, Research Career
     Paths

 • Next steps:
        In-house and commissioned analysis (two studies
     recently released for open tender)

        Consultation with stakeholders
Web:
http://www.innovation.gov.au/Section/Research/Pa
ges/ResearchWorkforceIssues.aspx

								
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