Docstoc

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Document Sample
ECONOMIC TRENDS Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                         Volume: 20                Date: 13 November 2008




                                                                                                                     INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
                                                                                                   Malaysia and the World’s Top 10 Trading Nations
                                                                                                   (Merchandise Trade)……………………...................................   Page 1
                                                                                                   Total Trade to GDP Ratio of selected economies.…...……..          Page 2
                                                                                                   Trade Trends of selected Asian countries, 1980-2007.....…        Page 2
                                                                                                   Malaysia: Approved Investments in the Manufacturing
                                                                                                   sector, 2000-2008(Jan-Sept)……………………………..……..                     Page 3
                                                                                                   Malaysia: Approved Manufacturing Projects by Industry,
                                                                                                   Jan-Sept 2008……………………………………………………..                              Page 3
                                                                                                   Malaysia: Major Sources of Foreign Investments,
                                                                                                   Jan-Sept 2008……………………………………………………..                              Page 4
                                                                                                   Commodity Prices…………..……………………………………                             Page 4
                                                                                                   Recent Developments on Cement…………………………..                        Page 5
                                                                                                   Measures taken by Japan, China and The EU to address
                                                                                                   the Global Financial Crisis……………………………………...                     Page 5
                                                                                                                                                                    Page 5

              ECONOMIC TRENDS
                                                                                                   New Incentives by BOI Thailand…………………..…………..
                                                                                                   ASEAN Transport Agreements…………………………………                          Page 6




              MALAYSIA AND THE WORLD’S TOP 10 TRADING NATIONS
              (MERCHANDISE TRADE)

                       3,500



                       3,000         (1)
                               (1)

                       2,500
US$ billion




                                                  (2)

                       2,000                                  (3)
                                            (2)

                                                        (3)
                       1,500

                                                                          (4)
                                                                    (4)
                       1,000                                                          (5)
                                                                                (6)         (5) (6)            (7)           (8)
                                                                                                         (7)           (8)                (9)
                                                                                                                                   (10)           (9) (10)
                        500


                                                                                                                                                               (19)(21)
                          0
                                USA        Germ any     China       Japan       France        UK         Neth.*         Italy      Belgium       Canada       Malaysia

                        2006   2,954.7      2,014.8     1,760.4     1,226.1     1,037.8     1,049.8      880.5         859.4         718.9         745.9        291.8
                        2007   3,182.9      2,385.0     2,173.7     1,333.9     1,168.6     1,057.4     1,042.8        996.0         843.9         808.6        323.2

              Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

              Notes:     Figures in parentheses are world rankings.
                        * - Netherlands
TOTAL TRADE TO GDP RATIO OF SELECTED ECONOMIES, 2007
                          350


                          300


                          250


                          200
                %
                          150


                          100


                           50


                             0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Philippines
                                                                                                                      Belgium



                                                                                                                                               Malaysia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Thailand
                                                                                                           Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Indonesia
                                  USA



                                                   China




                                                                                                                                                            Singapore
                                         Germany




                                                                                             Netherlands




                                                                                                                                                                                Taipei
                                                                                        UK
                                                                  Japan




                                                                                                                                                                                         Hong Kong
                                                                             France




                                                                                                                                   Canada




                                                                                                                                                                        Korea
Sources: World Trade Organization (WTO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Note: The trade-to-GDP ratio is the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP. This indicator measures a country’s
“openness” or “integration” in the world economy. It represents the combined weight of total trade in its economy,
a measure of the degree of dependence of domestic producers on foreign markets and their trade orientation (for
exports) and the degree of reliance of domestic demand on foreign supply of goods and services (for imports).


TRADE TRENDS OF SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES, 1980-2007
                2500

                                                                                                                                                                                                         China ( US$2,173.7 bil.)

                2000

                                                                                                                                                                                                           ASEAN (US$1,638.4 bil.)
  US$ billion




                1500
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Japan (US$1,333.9 bil.)



                1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Korea (US$728.3 bil.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Singapore (US$562.4 bil.)
                    500
                                                                                                                                                                                                            India (US$361.9 bil.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Malaysia (US$323.2 bil.)


                     0
                           1980

                                  1982

                                            1984

                                                           1986

                                                                          1988

                                                                                      1990

                                                                                             1992

                                                                                                               1994

                                                                                                                            1996

                                                                                                                                            1998

                                                                                                                                                          2000

                                                                                                                                                                        2002

                                                                                                                                                                                  2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                2007




Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

                                                                                                           2
MALAYSIA: APPROVED INVESTMENTS IN THE MANUFACTURING
SECTOR, 2000-2008 (JAN-SEPT)
                               70

                               60

                               50
                  RM billion




                               40

                               30

                               20

                               10

                               0
                                                                                                                                                  2008
                                         2000       2001         2002              2003          2004      2005       2006          2007
                                                                                                                                               (Jan-Sept)

  Total Investments                      33.6       25.8         17.9              29.1          28.8      31.1       46.0          59.9             53.9

  Foreign                                19.8       18.9         11.6              15.6          13.2      17.9       20.2          33.4             39.5

  Domestic                               13.8       6.9          6.3               13.5          15.6      13.2       25.8          26.5             14.4

Source: MIDA


MALAYSIA: APPROVED MANUFACTURING PROJECTS BY
INDUSTRY, JAN-SEPT 2008

                     25                24.7
                                      (44)


                     20
     RM billion




                     15
                                                      13.0
                                                       (93)

                     10



                         5                                                3.9
                                                                                               2.6
                                                                          (55)                               2.0
                                                                                                                             1.3               1.2
                                                                                              (53)
                                                                                                            (46)             (9)             (19)
                         0
                                    Basic Metal   E&E Products     Chemicals &                Food        Transport     Petroleum          Non-Metallic
                                    Products                           Chemical           Manufacturing   Equipment   Products (incl.   Mineral Products
                                                                        Products                                      Petrochemicals)

Source: MIDA
Note:         Figures in parentheses refer to number of projects approved.


Ten (10) projects approved are with investments exceeding RM1 billion each. These
projects are mainly in basic metal products industries (3 projects/RM22.4 billion), E&E
products (5 projects/RM10.3 billion), chemical & chemical products (1 project/RM1.2 billion)
and transport equipment (1 project/RM1.1 billion).

                                                                                      3
MALAYSIA: MAJOR SOURCES OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS,
JAN-SEPT 2008
                  14
                             12.6
                  12

                  10
     RM billion




                   8
                                                 6.3
                   6
                                                                      4.5              4.2
                   4
                                                                                                          3.3

                   2

                   0
                          Australia             USA                 Japan            Spain            Germany
Source: MIDA




COMMODITY PRICES
                                               % change from           As at
                               As at                                                    As at             As at
                                                5 November          5 November
                         12 November 2008          2008                            29 October 2008   22 October 2008
                                                                       2008
   Crude
                           US$56.16/bbl          ↓ 14.0 %          US$65.30/bbl     US$67.50/bbl      US$65.85/bbl
 Petroleum

Raw Sugar                 US$ 288.58/MT           ↓ 5.1 %          US$304.00/MT    US$269.62/MT      US$272.27/MT

 Iron Ore
                          US$ 100.00/MT         No Change          US$ 100.00/MT   US$ 130.00/MT     US$ 130.00/MT
 (Pallet)

                          US$115.00/MT                             US$155.00/MT    US$220.00/MT      US$220.00/MT
 Scrap Iron                                      ↓ 26.0 %
                             (High)                                   (High)          (High)            (High)
  HMS1&2
(80:20 mix)               US$110.00/MT                             US$150.00/MT    US$210.00/MT      US$210.00/MT
                                                 ↓ 27.0 %
                             (Low)                                    (Low)           (Low)             (Low)

Crude Palm
                          US$495.00/MT            ↓ 1.0 %          US$500.00/MT    US$450.00/MT      US$520.00/MT
    Oil



Note: CIF sugar price under Malaysia’s Long-Term Contract (2006-2008) - US$218.00/MT

Sources: MITI, Bloomberg.com and Malaysia Palm Oil Board.

November 2008 domestic average price for:

1.           Billet         : RM2,500 per MT
2.           Steel bar      : RM2,800 per MT

Source: MITI




                                                               4
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ON DOMESTIC CEMENT DEMAND

•   YB Tan Sri Muhyiddin Mohd. Yassin, Minister of International Trade and Industry, at the
    appreciation Dinner organised by the Cement and Concrete Association (C&CA) urged
    the C&CA to work closely with contractors and distributors of construction materials to
    ensure adequate and consistent supply of cement nationwide. Manufacturers of cement
    were also advised to ensure that there is sufficient stock prior to any scheduled
    maintenance activity or unscheduled plant shutdowns. This is to ensure there is no
    shortage of cement supply.


•   In the first six months of this year, there was a slight growth in demand of 11.6 per cent
    for cement amounting to 8.6 million metric tonnes as compared to 7.7 million metric
    tonnes for the corresponding period in 2007. The slight increase is due to
    implementation of projects under RMK9 in Sabah. Demand had been stagnant since
    2003 due to a lack-lustre construction industry.


MEASURES TAKEN BY JAPAN, CHINA AND THE EU TO ADDRESS
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

•   Japan, China and the EU are introducing various measures to address the on-going
    financial crisis and avert a potential long period of recession.

Japan

•   On 30 October 2008, Japan unveiled a second package worth Yen 26.9 trillion
    (US$273.1 billion). These measures are in addition to the Comprehensive Immediate
    Policy Package announced on 29 August 2008. The second package includes:

     -    increase public loan guarantees to US$203 billion from US$60.9 billion to support
          small businesses;
     -    expansion of emergency lending limit of government affiliated financial
          institutions to US$101.5 billion from US$30.5 billion;
     -    higher limit of equity participation in financial institutions; and
     -    tightening of regulations against short-selling on the stock market.

•   On 24 October 2008, as part of the measures of the second package, Japan submitted a
    bill to the Diet to allow it to inject state funds into banks and other financial institutions
    to ease the credit crunch. The Government of Japan will accept applications from
    financial institutions for public funds until the end of March 2012.

China

•   On 9 November 2008, China announced a stimulus package valued at 4 trillion Rmb
    (US$586.5 billion) to be implemented until year-end 2010. This package focuses on
    loosening credit conditions, cutting taxes and embarking on massive infrastructure
    spending.

                                               5
•   Operational measures currently being considered include extending land tenancy rights
    from current 30 years to another 70 years to transform the country’s agriculture from
    household units to large scale production.

•   Transaction taxes, down payments and mortgage rates have also been lowered,
    particularly for first-time home buyers, with effect from 1 November 2008.

•   On 17 October 2008, China Banking Regulatory Commission announced its first phase
    implementation of Basel II regulations, comprising five rules on credit risk
    classification, including option for lenders to adopt an internal rating system, loan
    supervision, capital measurement, credit risk mitigation and operational risk capital
    measurement.

The European Union

•   A comprehensive EU recovery plan is expected to be presented on 26 November 2008 to
    revitalise the European economy. Main elements of the plan include:

     -    to raise the amount of aid that can be granted to EU member states which are in
          financial difficulty from €12 billion to €25 billion;
     -    to increase the capital base of the European Investment Bank to fund climate
          change, energy security, infrastructure projects and loans to SMEs;
     -    accelerating payments to member states under the current EU budget and
          expanding the scope of the European Globalisation Fund with a budget of €500
          million;
     -    to speed up investment projects and payments to member states; and
     -    to reform the financial markets in Europe.

NEW INCENTIVES BY BOARD OF INVESTMENT THAILAND

•   The Board of Investment Thailand (BoI) is preparing a new incentive package that will
    give higher priority to R&D, tourism industries and the automotive sector.

•   The BoI will also revamp its organisational setup to improve the agency’s effectiveness
    in serving investors, and expand its offices overseas. It plans to set up a SME working
    committee to create links between small parts suppliers and large manufacturers.

•   For the period January-September 2008, a total of 799 projects worth Thb 268.8 billion
    (RM26.8 billion) were approved. This compares with 1,017 projects with investments
    totalling Thb 536.6 billion (RM53.6 billion) in the corresponding period last year.

•   The BoI intends to attract more investment in auto parts manufacturing, especially
    investment in eco-cars which is estimated to be Thb 100 billion (RM 10 billion).


ASEAN TRANSPORT AGREEMENTS
•   Three transport agreements were signed by respective ministers at the ASEAN
    Transport Ministers meeting in November 2008 in Manila:


                                           6
     -    Multilateral Agreement on Air Services;
     -    Multilateral Agreement on the Full Liberalization of Air Freight Services; and;
     -    ASEAN Framework Agreement on Facilitation of Inter-State Transport;



•   The air transport and air freight agreements affirm the ASEAN policy of progressive
    implementation of full liberalization and integration of air and air freight services. This is
    in line with the Action Plan for ASEAN Air Transport Integration and Liberalization
    adopted in November 2004.

•   These agreements aim to facilitate and enhance air and air freight services and their
    related activities to complement the other transport facilitation and liberalization efforts
    in ASEAN.

•   These agreements will gradually remove restrictions to afford greater flexibility and
    capacity of air and air freight services to build a unified aviation market of ASEAN by
    2015. These air services agreements will be implemented in December 2008.

•   The ASEAN Framework Agreement on Facilitation of Inter-State Transport is targeted for
    implementation in 2009. Upon implementation, it will lead towards establishing an
    effective, efficient, integrated and harmonized regional transport system that addresses
    all aspects of inter-state transport. It will allow transport operators duly established in
    one contracting party to undertake transport of goods into and/or from the territories of
    other contracting parties, and to load and discharge goods destined for or coming from
    contracting parties.

•   The liberalization and facilitation of air and freight services as well as inter-state
    transport will further boost intra-ASEAN trade and investment, and transport and
    tourism industry in the region.




                            MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY
                            Block 10, Government Offices Complex, Jalan Duta,
                            50622 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
                            Tel No. : 603-6203 3022
                            Fax No. : 603-6201 2337
                            E-mail : webmiti@miti.gov.my
                            Website: http://www.miti.gov.my




                                               7
Other issues:

•    MITI Weekly Bulletin Volume 19

•    MITI Weekly Bulletin Volume 18

•    MITI Weekly Bulletin Volume 17

•    MITI Weekly Bulletin Volume 16 - 1




                                  8

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:9
posted:6/23/2010
language:English
pages:8