MercuryNews com Mere drops in the world s oil

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					MercuryNews.com | 06/02/2005 | Mere drops in the world's oil barrel                                                                              http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/11795227.htm




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                                          CRUDE PUMPED FROM ALASKA
                                          WILL DO LITTLE TO LOWER
         INTERACTIVE                      PRICES
         News                             By Severin Borenstein
         Opinion
          • Perspective                   Oil from Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would increase U.S.
          • Columnists                    reserves by about 25 percent. Once oil from the site was flowing, production
                                          could replace half of U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia. The Arctic could supply
         Business                         more than half of California's oil consumption.
         Sports
         Entertainment                    Impressive numbers, but unfortunately none of these comparisons is
                                          relevant to thinking about the effect that drilling for that oil actually will have
         Life & Style                     on oil prices or the cost of gasoline. As the major U.S. oil companies
                                          repeatedly (and correctly) point out when they are accused of boosting oil
         ONLINE                           prices, the crude oil market is worldwide.
         EXTRAS
         Archives                         The same reality applies when considering the Arctic refuge: The effect new
         Newsletters                      supplies will have on price depends on the quantity of new supplies in
                                          comparison to the worldwide oil market. In the case of the Alaskan oil, that
         Newspaper                        effect will be too small to notice.
         Ads Online
         Coupons                          If the United States opens up the refuge to oil exploration, production from
                                          the area will constitute about 1 percent of the world oil market by the time the
         Maps &
                                          oil begins flowing in six to eight years. That might reduce oil prices a few
         Directions                       percentage points, translating to maybe three or four cents at the pump in



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MercuryNews.com | 06/02/2005 | Mere drops in the world's oil barrel                                                http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/11795227.htm


         Traffic Reports      2013, but will almost certainly do no more than that.
         Weather
                              How can it be that producing a million additional U.S. barrels of oil a day can
         Yellow Pages         have so little benefit for U.S. consumers? Simple. The oil doesn't belong to
         Discussion           U.S. consumers.
         Boards
                              Once the drilling tracts are leased to private oil companies, the companies
         Today's Front        control the oil, and they are committed to acting in their shareholders' best
         Page                 interest. They are going to sell the oil at market prices to whoever is willing to
                              pay those prices. The new supplies become just drops in the worldwide oil
         SITE SERVICES
                              bucket.
         RSS Feeds
         Contact Us           That is how the international oil market works, and how it should work. The
                              United States relies on imports for most of the oil we consume, so we'd
         Feedback             better hope that the oil market continues to work. We are in no position to try
         Site Map             to separate our market from the rest of the world.
         Advertise
                              The United States is never going to achieve ``energy independence'' while
         Print Services       we are still using oil as a primary energy source. With or without the Arctic
         Buy Photos           oil, we don't have nearly enough. (A separate U.S. oil market would be a bad
         Ethics Policy        idea even if we did have enough oil, but that's not an issue worth debating
                              right now.)

                              So are we destined to remain the victims of the unethical oil-producing
                              countries? Well, that's one way of looking at it.

                              Another is that the United States has chosen to become more and more
                              dependent on a resource whose supplies come increasingly from a limited
                              number of producers, many of which are controlled by unstable and
                              unscrupulous governments. This didn't happen suddenly; every national
                              politician in the past 20 years has known it was occurring.

                              Most American consumers seem to believe that oil producers owe us the
                              quantities we demand at whatever price we deem reasonable. During the
                              past two decades, the price of oil has declined compared with most other
                              goods. Yet, Americans complain that producers won't continue to ship us all
                              the oil we want at $20 a barrel.

                              The attitude is crystalized in a recent bumper sticker: ``What's our oil doing
                              underneath their country?''

                              It would have taken political backbone for our leaders to ask us to sacrifice in
                              the short run to avoid increasing our cheap-oil dependence and supporting
                              oppressive governments. The current powers in Washington are not the first
                              invertebrates to fail that challenge. They are just the most successful in
                              promoting the myth that drilling in Alaska is an alternative strategy for
                              curbing oil prices.

                              I'm not an ecologist. I've seen the wildlife refuge only in beautiful videos with
                              new-age music and cute caribou. I can't tell you the environmental cost of
                              drilling there. I'm an economist who has studied energy markets for 20 years.



2 of 3                                                                                                                                                               8/21/2005 6:58 PM
MercuryNews.com | 06/02/2005 | Mere drops in the world's oil barrel                                                               http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/11795227.htm


                              The economics are frustratingly simple: Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife
                              Refuge will never noticeably affect gasoline prices.

                              SEVERIN BORENSTEIN is a professor of business administration and
                              public policy at the University of California-Berkeley's Haas School of
                              Business and director of the UC Energy Institute. He wrote this article for the
                              Mercury News.



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