Project Model Template

Project Model and Simulation Product: Author: Company: Telephone: Fax: Email: Internet: Objective: Version: Units: Project Model and Simulation Alastair Day Systematic Finance plc +44 (0)1483 532929 +44 (0)1483 538358 info@system.co.uk www.system.co.uk Project, Risk and Simulation Demo v1.0 1-Jan-2001 $0 Menu Notes: Select a schedule as above You can enter all data on other schedules in blue Save your work as scenarios © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Workings Menu Model Model_Scenario Probability Risk_Adjusted Deviation Project_SDev Certainty Options Options_Scenario Simulation Simulation_Results EVA Leverage Explanation Spare 1 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Model 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Project Appraisal Model: Buy Equipment v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Scenario Name: Prepared by: Product Code: Manager: Start Date: Initial Investment: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Annual Price Change: Initial Cost per Unit: Annual Cost Improvement: Project Life: Residual Value: Working Capital as % of Sales: Cost of Funds: Tax Rate: Tax Payment Delay: Tax Method: Finance Lease or Buy: Base Case Project Management MJD-987 Matthew Miles 1-Jun-01 1,000,000.00 50.00 (5.00%) 40.00 10.00% 5.00 yrs 0.00 10.00% 10.00% 30.00% 1 yrs UK Writing Down Allowances Buy Equipment 0 Jun-01 Sales Volume Price per Unit Sales Revenue Annual Cost per Unit Manufacturing Cost 1 Jun-02 50,000 50.00 2,500,000 40.00 (2,000,000) 2 Jun-03 50,000 47.50 2,375,000 36.00 (1,800,000) 3 Jun-04 50,000 45.13 2,256,250 32.40 (1,620,000) 4 Jun-05 50,000 42.87 2,143,438 29.16 (1,458,000) 5 Jun-06 50,000 40.73 2,036,266 26.24 (1,312,200) 6 Jun-07 0 11,310,953 Total Management Tests of Project Acceptability: Buy Equipment Payback < 3 years Minimum IRR 20.00% Positive Operating Profit > 0 Operating Cash Flow 120% Net Present Value > 0 Modified IRR at 12.0% Payback Period Discounted Payback Accounting Rate of Return Benefit : Cost Ratio 3 yrs 20% 0 120% 0 12% 3.00 yrs 24.49% Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 595,905 16.37% 2 years and 11 months 3 years and 4 months 49.86% 159.59% Units:$0 250,000 (8,190,200) (1) Profit and Loss Account Sales Revenue Cost of Sales Contribution Selling and Administration Costs Recovery of Development Costs Net Operating Profit/(Loss) Interest Payable Profit before Tax Tax Profit after Tax - - 2,500,000 (2,000,000) 500,000 (125,000) (200,000) 175,000 - 2,375,000 (1,800,000) 575,000 (125,000) (200,000) 250,000 250,000 (92,813) 157,188 2,256,250 (1,620,000) 636,250 (125,000) (200,000) 311,250 311,250 (121,734) 189,516 2,143,438 (1,458,000) 685,438 (125,000) (200,000) 360,438 360,438 (144,401) 216,037 2,036,266 (1,312,200) 724,066 (125,000) (200,000) 399,066 399,066 (161,922) 237,144 53,394 53,394 11,310,953 (8,190,200) 3,120,753 (625,000) (1,000,000) 1,495,753 1,495,753 (448,726) 1,047,027 75,000 75,000 175,000 (56,250) 118,750 (2) Balance Sheet Fixed Asset Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Cash Total Assets Working Capital - (Liability)/Asset Tax Timing/Deferred Tax Loans Shareholders Funds Total Liabilities CheckSum 1,000,000 1,000,000 (1,000,000) - 1,000,000 (200,000) 800,000 (800,000) (250,000) 1,000,000 (400,000) 600,000 (393,750) 206,250 (237,500) 92,813 350,938 206,250 - 1,000,000 (600,000) 400,000 36,563 436,563 (225,625) 121,734 540,453 436,563 - 1,000,000 (800,000) 200,000 486,547 686,547 (214,344) 144,401 756,490 686,547 - 1,000,000 (1,000,000) 951,929 951,929 (203,627) 161,922 993,634 951,929 - 1,000,000 (1,000,000) 993,634 993,634 (53,394) 1,047,027 993,634 - (75,000) 75,000 - 56,250 193,750 - Model : Page 3 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Model 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Project Appraisal Model: Buy Equipment v1.0 1-Jan-2001 (3) Cash Flow Operating Profit Non-Cash Costs EBITDA Change in Working Capital Net Operating Cash Flow CAPEX Interest Tax Cash Flow before Financing Cumulative Cash Cash Flow as % of Profit Balance Sheet Cash CheckSum (1,000,000) - (1,000,000) 175,000 200,000 375,000 (250,000) 125,000 75,000 200,000 (800,000) 114.3% (800,000) - 250,000 200,000 450,000 12,500 462,500 (56,250) 406,250 (393,750) 162.5% (393,750) - 311,250 200,000 511,250 11,875 523,125 (92,813) 430,313 36,563 138.3% 36,563 - 360,438 200,000 560,438 11,281 571,719 (121,734) 449,984 486,547 124.8% 486,547 - 399,066 200,000 599,066 10,717 609,783 (144,401) 465,382 951,929 116.6% 951,929 - 203,627 203,627 (161,922) 41,705 993,634 993,634 - 1,495,753 1,000,000 2,495,753 2,495,753 (1,000,000) (502,119) 993,634 (1,000,000) (1,000,000) 0 Jun-01 Results Present Value of Cash Flow at 7.0% Cumulative Present Value Payback Period Discounted Payback Accounting Rate of Return Present Value of Cash Flow at 7.0% Less Initial Investment Net Present Value at 7.0% Internal Rate of Return Benefit : Cost Ratio (1,000,000) (1,000,000) 1 Jun-02 186,916 (813,084) 2 Jun-03 354,834 (458,250) 3 Jun-04 351,263 (106,986) 4 Jun-05 343,291 236,304 5 Jun-06 331,811 568,115 6 Jun-07 27,790 595,905 Total 595,905 2 years and 11 months 3 years and 4 months 49.86% 1,595,905 (1,000,000) 595,905 24.49% 159.59% Model : Page 4 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Model 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Project Appraisal Model: Buy Equipment v1.0 1-Jan-2001 (A) Sensitivity: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Across : Cost of Funds: Down Data Table Intervals Initial Sales Price per Unit: 1.00 Cost of Funds: 1.00% 595,905 47.00 48.00 49.00 50.00 8.00% 252,411 390,091 527,771 665,452 9.00% 223,900 359,309 494,719 630,128 10.00% 196,306 329,506 462,705 595,905 11.00% 169,592 300,641 431,690 562,740 12.00% 143,723 272,679 401,634 530,590 51.00 803,132 765,537 729,105 693,789 659,546 52.00 940,813 900,947 862,304 824,838 788,502 53.00 1,078,493 1,036,356 995,504 955,887 917,458 Slope 137,680.45 135,409.33 133,199.62 131,049.16 128,955.87 (A) Sensitivity: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Across : Cost of Funds: Down 1,200,000 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% Net Present Value at 7.0% 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 595,905 400,000 200,000 46.00 47.00 48.00 49.00 50.00 51.00 52.00 53.00 54.00 (B) Sensitivity: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Across : Initial Cost per Unit: Down Data Table Intervals Initial Sales Price per Unit: 1.00 Initial Cost per Unit: 1.00 595,905 47.00 48.00 49.00 50.00 38.00 441,398 574,597 707,797 840,997 39.00 318,852 452,052 585,251 718,451 40.00 196,306 329,506 462,705 595,905 41.00 73,760 206,960 340,160 473,359 42.00 (48,785) 84,414 217,614 350,814 51.00 974,196 851,650 729,105 606,559 484,013 52.00 1,107,396 984,850 862,304 739,759 617,213 53.00 1,240,595 1,118,050 995,504 872,958 750,412 Slope 133,199.62 133,199.62 133,199.62 133,199.62 133,199.62 (B) Sensitivity: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Across : Initial Cost per Unit: Down 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 (200,000) 46.00 47.00 48.00 49.00 50.00 595,905 38.00 42.00 40.00 Net Present Value at 7.0% 51.00 52.00 53.00 54.00 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Model : Page 5 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Model_Scenario 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Scenario Summary Current Values: Base Case Changing Cells: Scenario 1 1 Payback < 3 years 3 yrs 3 yrs Minimum IRR 20.00% 20% 20% Positive Operating Profit > 0 0 0 Operating Cash Flow 120% 120% 120% Net Present Value > 0 0 0 Modified IRR at 12.0% 12% 12% Scenario Name: Base Case Base Case Prepared by: Project Management Project Management Product Code: MJD-987 MJD-987 Manager: Matthew Miles Matthew Miles Start Date: 1-Jun-01 1-Jun-01 Initial Investment: 1,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 Initial Sales Price per Unit: 50.00 50.00 Annual Price Change: (5.00%) (5.00%) Initial Cost per Unit: 40.00 40.00 Annual Cost Improvement: 10.00% 10.00% Project Life: 5.00 yrs 5.00 yrs Residual Value: 0.00 0.00 Working Capital as % of Sales: 10.00% 10.00% Cost of Funds: 10.00% 10.00% Tax Rate: 30.00% 30.00% Tax Payment Delay: 1 yrs 1 yrs Sales Volume 1 50,000 50,000 Sales Volume 2 50,000 50,000 Admin 1 (125,000) (125,000) Admin 2 (125,000) (125,000) Lease or Buy 1 1 Tax Depreciation Type 1 1 Result Cells: Payback 3.00 yrs 3.00 yrs Payback_Result Yes Yes IRR 24.49% 24.49% IRR_Result Yes Yes Positive_Operating_Profit Yes Yes Positive_Operating_Cash_Flow Yes Yes NPV 595,905 595,905 NPV Rule Yes Yes MIRR 16.37% 16.37% Payback 2 years and 11 months 2 years and 11 months Accounting Return 33.23% 33.23% Benefit : Cost Ratio 159.59% 159.59% Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray. Pessimistic 2 3 yrs 20% 0 120% 0 12% Pessimistic Project Management MJD-987 Matthew Miles 1-Jun-01 1,000,000.00 50.00 (10.00%) 40.00 5.00% 5.00 yrs 0.00 10.00% 10.00% 30.00% 1 yrs 50,000 50,000 (125,000) (125,000) 1 1 7.00 yrs No -12.98% No No - check period 3 No - check period 3 (467,528) No -2.36% 6 years and 0 months 10.69% 53.25% Optimistic 3 3 yrs 20% 0 120% 0 12% Optimistic Project Management MJD-987 Matthew Miles 1-Jun-01 1,000,000.00 50.00 40.00 15.00% 5.00 yrs 0.00 10.00% 10.00% 30.00% 1 yrs 50,000 50,000 (125,000) (125,000) 1 1 3.00 yrs Yes 46.57% Yes Yes Yes 1,674,778 Yes 25.68% 2 years and 3 months 56.12% 267.48% © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Model_Scenario : Page 6 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Probability 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Probability v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Probability: Select: Payback Result Weighted Payback Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Payback 3.00 1.50 7.00 2.10 4.20 1.89 0.45 0.50 0.30 1 3.00 0.60 4.20 0.20 Units:$0 Scenario Payback NPV IRR MIRR Accounting Return Benefit : Cost Ratio Base Case 3.00 yrs 595,905 24.5% 16.4% 33.2% 159.6% Pessimistic 7.00 yrs (467,528) (13.0%) (2.4%) 10.7% 53.2% Optimistic 3.00 yrs 1,674,778 46.6% 25.7% 56.1% 267.5% Weighted Payback 4.20 yrs 492,650 17.7% 12.6% 31.0% 149.3% Probability 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Base Case Pessimistic Optimistic Payback Weighted Payback © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Probability : Page 7 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Risk_Adjusted 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Risk Adjustment v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Risk Factor Tax Rate Cost of Funds Net of Tax Rate Adjusted Rate Adjusted Net of Tax Rate NPV at 7.0% Revised NPV at 10.50% Revised Net Present Values Risk Factor 1.00% 2.0% 3.0% 439,855 530,590 499,418 Variance Percentage (65,315) (11.0%) 5.00% 30.00% 10.00% 7.00% 15.00% 10.50% 595,905 439,855 Units:$0 4.0% 469,185 5.0% 439,855 6.0% 411,395 7.0% 383,772 8.0% 356,953 (96,487) (126,720) (156,050) (184,510) (212,134) (238,952) (16.2%) (21.3%) (26.2%) (31.0%) (35.6%) (40.1%) Risk Adjustment 600,000 500,000 Revised Net Present Values Adjusted Rate 439,855 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Risk_Adjusted : Page 8 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Deviation 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Deviation v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Probability 10.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 10.0% 50.00 Units:$0 (A) Cost of Funds Discount Rate 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% Expected (Aa) Standard Deviation: Sdev/Aa: NPV A 665,452 630,128 595,905 562,740 530,590 Probability p 10% 20% 40% 20% 10% Management Summary Standard Deviation 36,934 A 134,242 B Coefficient of Variation 0.06 0.23 Sale Price A*p 66,545 126,026 238,362 112,548 53,059 596,540 (A-Aa) 68,912 33,588 (635) (33,800) (65,949) p*(A-Aa)^2 474,888,130 225,634,771 161,144 228,490,805 434,933,098 1,364,107,948 36,933.83 0.06 Standard Deviation = Absolute Risk Coefficent of Variation = Relative Risk (B) Initial Cost Price per Unit Cost Price 38.00 39.00 40.00 41.00 42.00 Expected (Aa) = Standard Deviation: Sdev/Aa: NPV A 840,997 718,451 595,905 473,359 350,814 Probability p 10% 20% 40% 20% 10% A*p 84,100 143,690 238,362 94,672 35,081 595,905 (A-Aa) 245,091 122,546 (122,546) (245,091) p*(A-Aa)^2 6,006,982,464 3,003,491,232 3,003,491,232 6,006,982,464 18,020,947,391 134,242.12 0.23 Standard Deviation = Absolute Risk Coefficent of Variation = Relative Risk © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Deviation : Page 9 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Project_SDev 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Project Deviation v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Project A NPV 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Expected (Aa) Standard Deviation: Sdev/Aa: Project B Probability p 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% Expected (Aa) Standard Deviation: Sdev/Aa: 126,491.11 0.42 Project Deviation 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 A*p 15,000 40,000 90,000 80,000 75,000 300,000 (A-Aa) (200,000) (100,000) 100,000 200,000 p*(A-Aa)^2 6,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 16,000,000,000 Probability p 10.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 10.0% A*p 10,000 40,000 120,000 80,000 50,000 300,000 (A-Aa) (200,000) (100,000) 100,000 200,000 Units:$0 p*(A-Aa)^2 4,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 109,544.51 0.37 Standard Deviation = Absolute Risk Coefficent of Variation = Relative Risk Standard Deviation = Absolute Risk Coefficent of Variation = Relative Risk Project A Project B © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Project_SDev : Page 10 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Certainty 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Certainty Equivalents v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Certainty Equivalent Coefficient Results Original Result Certainty Equivalent Variance (C-O) Percent NPV 595,905 420,022 (175,883) (29.5%) 0 Jun-01 Project Cash Flows (1,000,000) 100.0% IRR 24.5% 20.2% (4.3%) (17.4%) 1 Jun-02 200,000 100% 200,000 420,022 20.23% 2 Jun-03 406,250 95% 385,938 (20,313) (5.0%) 3 Jun-04 430,313 95% 408,797 (21,516) (5.0%) 4 Jun-05 449,984 80% 359,988 (89,997) (20.0%) 5 Jun-06 465,382 80% 372,306 (93,076) (20.0%) 6 Jun-07 41,705 80% 33,364 (8,341) (20.0%) 95.0% 95.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Units:$0 Certainty Equivalent Coefficient Net Cash Flows (1,000,000) Variance Percentage NPV @ 7.0% IRR % Certainty Equivalents Project Cash Flows Net Cash Flows 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Certainty : Page 11 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Options 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Project Real Options v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Scenario Name: Oppportunity Benefit / (Cost): Base Case Low Initial Capital Cost (CAPEX): Sales Price per Unit: Saved Scenario: Most Likely CAPEX Scenario: 33.3% 33.3% Base Case CAPEX: prob. 33% : 1,000,000 Medium High 33.3% 33.3% Management Summary Amount Percent Result NPV 595,910 59.6% Original NPV 595,905 59.6% Variance 5 0.0% Units:$0 33.3% 33.3% (1) Present Value of Future Cash Flows Key Variables PV before CAPEX Probability Probability CAPEX 49.00 50.00 51.00 50.00 595,910 5 33% 33% 33% Low 33% 900,000 1,542,047 1,675,247 1,808,447 1,675,252 Medium 33% 1,000,000 1,462,705 1,595,905 1,729,105 1,595,910 High 33% 1,100,000 1,383,363 1,516,563 1,649,763 1,516,568 Mid 1,000,010 487,564 531,915 576,432 1,595,910 Sale price per unit Weighted Net Present Value Weighted Net Present Value Variance: 0.0% (2) Present Values less Initial Capital Cost (CAPEX) Key Variables Probability Present value variances to CAPEX above Net present value Low 642,047 775,247 908,447 71,331 86,121 100,940 Medium 462,705 595,905 729,105 51,406 66,198 81,012 High 283,363 416,563 549,763 31,491 46,289 61,104 Answer 5,363,145 Probabilities: Variance * prob CAPEX * prob Sales 595,892 (3) Present Values for selected Capital Cost (CAPEX) Selected CAPEX Net present value * Sales price probability (Column 2) 1,462,705 1,595,905 1,729,105 33% 33% 33% 487,564 531,915 576,432 1,595,910 (1,000,000) 595,910 595,905 5 Project present value based on CAPEX: prob. 33% : 1,000,000 Initial capital value Oppportunity benefit / (cost) of delay or more information Net present value and percent of original capital Original project net present value Variance and percentage variance 59.6% 59.6% 0.0% Project present value based on CAPEX: prob. 33% : 1,000,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 48.50 Sale price per unit 49.00 49.50 50.00 50.50 51.00 Original NPV 595,905 51.50 CAPEX: prob. 33% : 900,000 CAPEX: prob. 33% : 1,100,000 CAPEX: prob. 33% : 1,000,000 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Options : Page 12 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Options_Scenario 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Scenario Summary Current Values: Base Case Changing Cells: Scenario 1 1 Capital Value 2 2 Scenario Name: Base Case Base Case Oppportunity Benefit / (Cost): Capital Probability Low 33.3% 33.3% Capital Probability Medium 33.3% 33.3% Sale Price Probability Low 33.3% 33.3% Sale Price Probability Medium 33.3% 33.3% Result Cells: Revised NPV 595,910 595,910 Revised IRR 59.6% 59.6% Original NPV 595,905 595,905 Original IRR 59.6% 59.6% NPV Variance 5 5 IRR Variance 0.0% 0.0% Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray. © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 R&D/Information 2 1 R&D/Information (20,000) 70.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 808,527 89.8% 595,905 59.6% 212,622 35.7% Options_Scenario : Page 13 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Simulation v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Scenario Name: Prepared by: Product Code: Manager: Start Date: Initial Investment: Initial Sales Price per Unit: Annual Price Change: Initial Cost per Unit: Annual Cost Improvement: Project Life: Residual Value: Working Capital as % of Sales: Cost of Funds: Simulation Sales Price per Unit: Deviation: Cost Price per Unit: Price per Unit Variation: Base Case Project Management MJD-987 Matthew Miles 1-Jun-01 1,000,000.00 50.00 (5.00%) 40.00 10.00% 5.00 yrs 0.00 10.00% 10.00% 50.00 4.00 40.00 4.00 Simulation 1,000 Management Summary Quartiles Value No of Results 0 (635,027) 1 1 338,427 249 2 592,599 250 3 845,107 250 4 1,754,732 250 Total Results 1,000 Range 2,389,759 Mean 594,436 Median 592,599 Skew 0.112 Kurtosis (0.136) Standard Deviation 370,636 Coefficient of Variation 0.62 Net Present Value at 50.00 varying by 4.00 and a Unit Price of 40.00 varying by 4.00 Payback < 3 years Minimum IRR 20.00% Positive Operating Profit > 0 Operating Cash Flow 120% Net Present Value > 0 3 yrs 20% 0 120% 0 3.00 yrs 24.49% Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 595,905 Net Present Value at 50.00 varying by 4.00 and a Unit Price of 40.00 varying by 4.00 NPV Linear (NPV) 2,000,000 1,500,000 y = -13036x + 6E+06 R² = 0.490 1,000,000 500,000 - (500,000) (1,000,000) 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Simulation : Page 14 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Simulation v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Simulation Frequency Results with an Interval of 200,000 Interval Amount (410,000) (210,000) (10,000) 190,000 390,000 590,000 790,000 990,000 1,190,000 1,390,000 1,590,000 200,000.00 No of Results 1 10 32 95 167 190 208 152 85 40 15 995 Percentage 0.1% 1.0% 3.2% 9.5% 16.8% 19.1% 20.9% 15.3% 8.5% 4.0% 1.5% 100.0% Minimum: Maximum: Mean: Minimum Probability: Maximum Probability: Less than zero NPV % of trials: Arithmetic Mean Median Skew Kurtosis Cost Price 33.91 46.66 39.98 Sale Price 43.6181 55.8787 49.9735 0.0012 0.9996 4.3% 594,436 592,599 0.112 (0.136) Simulation Frequency Results with an Interval of 200,000 250 208 200 167 152 150 95 190 100 85 50 1 0 (410,000) (210,000) 10 32 40 15 (10,000) 190,000 390,000 590,000 790,000 990,000 1,190,000 1,390,000 1,590,000 Quartiles Chart : Mean 594,436 : Median 592,599 Quartiles Chart : Mean 594,436 : Median 592,599 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 592,599 500,000 (500,000) (1,000,000) (635,027) 0 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 1 2 3 4 338,427 845,107 Quartiles 1,754,732 Simulation : Page 15 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Simulation Results v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Quartiles 0 1 2 3 4 Range Mean Median Skew Kurtosis Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Base Case Pessimistic (534,884) (1,275,751) 354,006 (327,948) 587,223 (84,571) 816,232 160,697 1,701,810 1,071,892 2,236,694 2,347,643 593,358 (79,897) 587,284 (84,224) 0.048 0.017 0.022 0.007 349,900 368,015 0.59 (4.61) Base Case NPV 707,906.57 74,048.39 297,750.32 227,690.29 289,022.37 337,356.25 764,591.54 731,301.32 595,489.51 650,816.08 519,263.73 231,244.86 431,794.15 420,884.56 1,178,777.13 361,265.75 743,286.93 438,033.72 (71,588.09) 587,144.14 1,007,395.99 808,362.12 1,171,834.50 440,102.11 779,888.12 540,073.65 248,606.79 243,402.29 631,281.58 133,230.39 211,411.32 476,046.98 661,570.31 1,236,510.48 745,073.79 584,987.70 880,209.80 172,076.23 505,618.41 324,681.41 80,415.82 1,146,828.81 289,620.81 325,749.62 518,536.60 727,244.15 482,942.74 (234,054.62) 310,189.97 604,131.81 639,157.77 723,579.28 Pessimistic (246,517.91) 642,302.58 157,066.39 88,570.58 (267,836.35) 164,332.93 (654,368.62) 21,830.31 (350,134.93) (570,714.66) (524,978.81) 408,100.01 (737,574.45) (40,337.67) (406,783.04) (17,428.73) 236,905.02 268,915.66 (476,371.75) (303,834.21) (348,323.02) 352,328.72 (14,408.50) 431,831.34 38,718.76 (71,207.57) (606,875.36) (236,308.27) (239,781.55) (247,138.02) 225,617.57 23,551.30 (495,710.94) (332,499.74) 335,998.60 (114,657.61) (711,952.06) (287,495.47) (61,636.40) 249,217.02 (306,395.37) (375,794.79) (354,574.64) (91,136.79) (507,525.35) (179,802.28) 165,159.39 (221,640.66) (104,395.08) 114,656.96 (64,841.02) (583,131.08) Variance (740,867) (681,954) (671,795) (655,535) (629,918) 110,949 (673,255) (671,508) (0.030) (0.014) 18,115 (5.20) % 139% (193%) (114%) (80%) (37%) 5% (113%) (114%) (63%) (65%) 5% (881%) Simulation_Results : Page 16 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 168,598.68 769,726.94 869,314.68 852,679.19 333,067.00 624,472.92 790,737.42 650,201.56 624,904.31 306,146.50 985,573.25 13,912.10 858,856.15 (249,979.69) 838,262.04 641,606.10 666,798.94 558,007.94 462,883.40 1,014,182.77 764,816.86 232,303.30 841,409.75 374,811.52 719,427.88 (52,387.04) 395,298.02 396,550.06 544,478.55 289,419.27 517,797.30 180,488.72 833,575.20 779,801.93 1,234,497.52 318,627.50 810,637.90 415,617.84 728,712.21 557,694.57 405,887.82 490,552.91 88,711.96 1,418,902.68 543,454.28 956,209.52 703,385.95 489,850.29 1,243,164.21 489,570.45 559,804.79 1,067,419.25 320,257.61 120,762.31 1,182,631.30 342,299.73 (111,241.34) 627,173.34 628,970.35 450,953.35 605,209.99 340,273.57 490,793.47 526,456.86 762,559.10 30,154.10 566,946.20 431,820.70 418,859.33 704,017.75 253,608.17 763,234.12 687,925.50 983,020.81 (231,329.65) (770,198.28) (239,478.99) 41,977.11 61,792.97 (255,233.29) (268,754.15) 470,323.67 102,899.82 (412,095.01) (149,679.41) 421,077.51 24,898.56 (349,949.56) 547,699.63 (354,745.54) (140,662.68) (233,002.41) 76,249.59 200,027.19 (650,476.55) (13,392.79) 543,112.64 (346,038.44) 495,929.07 (306,442.81) 790,689.78 (581,918.90) (439,980.32) (523,321.25) 937,606.74 155,894.84 361,999.76 (52,357.92) (319,847.36) (314,462.88) (361,672.78) 271,577.71 (766,229.01) 145,203.62 (425,416.64) 509,531.05 (285,088.69) 249,899.93 (29,747.39) 478,791.78 (320,146.35) 65,569.09 679,765.69 359,509.62 (191,325.88) (236,943.83) (255,897.18) (75,962.05) (89,119.90) (598,287.99) 294,352.88 (478,453.52) 70,449.99 398,435.57 (693,747.59) 538,479.39 (696,501.45) (269,857.19) (366,467.71) (12,614.77) 213,634.93 77,132.68 129,814.47 (415,250.64) (471,440.23) (484,117.01) (204,298.33) (625,721.86) Simulation_Results : Page 17 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 816,470.35 743,306.20 1,007,937.39 (395,414.05) 461,628.78 409,849.41 819,481.77 (171,738.41) 1,051,238.78 418,907.71 794,474.92 (433,930.14) 98,479.76 (167,032.89) 718,301.84 (892,559.26) 158,256.96 (127,182.78) 496,255.41 (334,076.68) 310,770.99 (114,721.69) 1,099,280.47 (744,429.92) 665,794.56 481,674.68 186,987.09 222,688.18 746,042.66 (7,356.81) 966,340.11 55,606.75 1,271,094.37 122,313.20 957,228.94 (241,878.43) 536,002.45 (93,542.47) 494,911.47 54,688.86 571,807.24 1,008,702.46 1,008,687.42 (444,185.82) 378,978.24 535,344.96 773,006.30 182,156.77 525,585.43 (769,999.38) 1,087,096.45 (242,437.75) 216,364.08 309,656.07 627,763.99 (43,415.77) (215,855.70) 212,087.08 569,125.27 (391,790.33) 723,561.42 72,087.26 681,023.36 496,749.94 (111,474.82) 117,501.59 602,743.31 (161,128.50) 624,467.58 (224,932.14) 756,990.50 12,026.44 351,693.61 (753,080.50) 112,162.25 (46,545.11) 1,439,592.60 516,022.97 587,344.68 204,587.34 640,065.84 (308,884.40) 999,923.80 38,713.47 729,065.66 (56,111.24) 284,908.25 (216,596.32) 841,818.78 (220,910.44) (66,775.63) (371,387.85) 550,457.34 60,005.52 434,766.94 (208,905.17) 633,347.75 40,801.12 777,516.20 (446,886.89) 365,534.23 695,187.19 1,027,531.12 202,144.09 766,347.29 (1,202,944.69) 837,998.77 (241,688.39) 283,471.73 260,317.49 702,180.91 (161,203.98) 998,159.45 (169,110.32) 822,343.88 (499,039.50) (40,112.15) 565,470.06 1,134,181.73 28,108.07 771,500.72 (268,724.39) 654,634.59 96,187.61 569,541.38 320,708.65 660,487.33 (1,190,094.05) 694,332.44 (299,432.49) 1,378,564.46 (642,040.10) 175,530.73 (434,317.68) 508,972.84 (480,143.84) 831,348.56 (155,748.36) 794,246.09 148,019.59 828,451.26 487,662.18 911,625.83 (520,839.29) 589,613.65 617,554.84 1,144,764.85 96,653.19 Simulation_Results : Page 18 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 43,322.14 423,757.02 932,042.28 565,379.34 542,649.23 344,884.69 393,887.52 359,197.60 749,457.93 312,322.48 116,833.83 796,010.31 508,969.69 894,167.05 573,755.20 416,572.93 606,218.33 159,095.72 393,453.19 1,021,543.89 920,281.26 815,490.51 539,865.28 894,048.75 913,370.74 893,390.18 304,551.75 180,493.82 367,705.10 639,314.63 921,381.01 385,192.65 610,526.61 678,710.45 200,082.72 1,006,006.20 654,068.57 1,190,928.05 (282,434.57) 495,121.97 1,026,907.05 575,252.97 682,558.16 30,259.99 312,477.17 451,747.60 781,518.33 449,641.29 502,871.63 898,278.59 70,830.96 211,423.99 1,115,059.66 1,095,075.37 515,543.66 613,680.79 250,282.87 363,762.60 302,387.81 988,887.62 754,445.63 802,150.34 1,124,809.04 713,228.84 767,075.65 209,819.42 1,022,694.56 644,610.26 205,642.35 423,234.43 474,304.74 167,034.72 1,235,864.97 336,187.53 (216,757.91) (271,586.60) (426,917.79) 765,549.28 (301,532.99) (495,431.72) 436,515.76 (616,685.15) (328,777.14) (805,455.89) (440,873.25) 191,340.75 (143,771.09) 358,667.12 752,215.56 32,577.24 177,847.79 95,765.68 (187,185.88) 223,062.60 141,126.01 20,122.82 436,737.62 324,731.13 (568,000.32) (97,871.02) 236,576.00 (388,686.13) 39,031.21 (12,092.57) 256,359.65 (257,464.71) (486,988.55) (83,876.29) 300,529.77 160,544.96 (619,833.92) 125,329.49 (68,883.24) (291,842.27) 372,649.36 332,790.17 422,492.29 (510,773.53) (85,928.56) (527,202.02) (457,834.17) (281,294.92) 142,105.10 (346,576.74) 306,684.69 211,886.66 237,673.88 (340,210.89) (410,291.15) (347,550.34) (359,802.41) 323,216.85 (182,616.35) 606,918.11 (71,438.03) (448,352.76) (353,170.05) (233,438.45) 15,144.32 578,670.71 45,899.01 (92,227.24) (36,299.20) (127,881.17) 13,241.94 (6,001.03) (579,569.46) 445,939.84 Simulation_Results : Page 19 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 1,243,776.38 (415,840.48) 1,073,746.86 (158,887.33) 386,912.27 (257,253.29) 372,760.41 (357,061.01) 690,275.90 198,635.90 588,872.47 259,570.81 1,245,266.27 580,181.97 442,163.43 511,633.51 1,149,671.15 (154,863.56) 480,503.31 (463,501.02) 89,002.97 293,020.26 11,603.37 441,797.50 409,194.52 (114,380.20) 453,426.24 140,131.01 591,618.56 (54,867.73) 671,264.70 201,808.79 723,849.58 (1,056,001.31) 877,142.75 463,096.53 175,773.02 (41,091.92) 604,077.14 (375,747.97) 815,542.34 168,045.55 555,677.98 216,768.97 677,303.22 269,120.99 568,528.75 (733,609.31) 690,541.56 163,729.51 246,257.20 522,819.51 616,146.35 (140,095.99) 485,466.62 (635,504.32) 733,249.38 (138,008.76) 1,160,928.18 63,701.40 430,241.66 404,599.48 359,610.89 (1,158,458.62) 188,325.99 (848,698.10) 641,142.24 (259,168.07) 1,002,896.11 110,817.16 330,985.00 6,218.03 450,956.50 252,271.13 138,957.91 (701,192.87) 454,013.14 103,932.38 306,768.09 135,121.22 1,029,280.70 (179,551.83) 307,913.90 21,363.16 501,744.46 173,237.69 960,661.20 48,418.47 295,989.61 (382,509.08) 276,971.38 (44,817.65) 444,829.89 (81,478.04) (72,480.87) (101,897.88) 166,614.90 (656,084.82) 368,926.80 (330,615.21) 346,638.10 64,203.04 777,144.47 318,538.54 979,765.18 363,653.32 607,140.29 (642,995.03) 967,342.80 (370,825.27) 276,482.34 (129,003.57) 354,491.31 248,374.27 235,470.68 (348,423.78) 431,052.55 (770,259.49) 340,090.94 19,456.27 549,050.89 289,276.62 (58,268.67) (157,696.60) 1,185,917.25 509,958.10 726,763.45 171,192.29 1,207,216.82 1,240.97 243,323.84 (77,100.69) 1,038,733.45 234,579.91 33,152.16 607,850.43 932,581.23 (110,555.18) 930,303.58 (55,971.83) 489,082.33 16,008.20 842,948.74 321,361.00 775,430.96 (521,097.16) 307,640.44 (34,676.15) Simulation_Results : Page 20 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 742,962.90 760,364.23 321,248.51 1,014,383.50 491,085.76 696,762.39 912,489.59 1,152,392.02 459,767.73 505,780.89 923,917.40 1,059,943.87 195,884.42 1,196,231.63 844,731.95 656,499.56 208,774.04 (24,148.95) 23,028.26 1,106,949.81 765,163.00 443,895.61 1,019,632.51 1,086,118.87 649,560.85 764,154.79 230,283.25 1,216,610.54 574,750.69 31,997.17 325,239.74 91,139.04 736,659.73 141,206.11 1,093,241.72 (519,616.93) 1,009,460.28 531,883.42 1,188,123.85 1,044,846.22 565,668.27 596,623.03 513,451.87 598,670.86 560,597.46 656,519.11 291,542.12 745,318.66 498,856.76 973,924.93 644,853.84 739,712.07 1,118,755.85 583,873.08 302,708.25 853,000.59 708,481.36 375,600.41 89,464.50 466,968.49 821,061.62 645,108.95 1,254,516.87 9,409.78 378,031.21 610,215.58 233,486.35 661,842.21 615,899.00 1,122,618.36 460,165.87 390,132.60 593,979.54 140,201.33 (847,400.35) (8,957.37) 207,911.04 (860,400.83) (443,873.59) (215,874.84) 308,689.27 (654,055.08) (595,771.47) 40,252.67 73,093.26 93,331.95 (777,496.34) (352,921.67) 608,226.53 (201,235.28) (314,388.34) (300,871.24) (195,367.62) 274,225.09 835,817.01 41,225.97 (478,013.72) (447,482.10) 146,808.80 (390,105.09) (210,558.82) (186,794.66) (518,487.07) (257,121.01) 448,730.24 (341,254.97) (87,038.50) 314,488.89 (445,395.96) (504,131.72) 416,388.25 (303,152.15) 70,979.14 66,090.53 51,593.37 (495,566.49) (523,517.46) 306,317.14 143,351.47 (382,344.55) (30,741.86) 39,608.03 (20,303.24) 187,504.81 (146,744.02) (181,125.41) 53,016.82 335,825.97 89,048.34 (310,873.74) (169,417.27) (468,927.19) 452,099.36 (263,797.61) (125,060.55) (215,055.98) 283,036.74 (314,037.77) (237,265.52) 373,293.11 (190,614.65) 31,894.07 110,498.39 (190,291.95) (69,335.07) 844,114.71 (89,753.31) (397,428.83) Simulation_Results : Page 21 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 1,126,536.38 (25,899.67) 560,485.49 (783,877.42) 641,195.93 771,515.61 560,070.57 (109,005.30) 552,046.04 (400,577.87) 38,949.39 643,295.84 (58,039.23) (291,596.37) 1,021,316.72 (389,442.59) 867,568.56 (214,234.36) 997,358.55 (1,275,750.96) 570,353.26 (474,382.34) 970,869.14 274,015.01 1,408,693.10 118,728.32 859,731.80 (766,640.86) 928,266.06 3,950.05 336,208.95 720,321.33 709,439.06 323,135.34 476,580.58 (323,281.48) 142,418.23 612,521.20 832,165.34 (293,308.51) 8,319.44 (64,097.18) 406,957.79 471,069.58 594,869.40 (1,061,962.03) 372,834.77 (207,161.51) 178,442.57 (539,944.45) 640,213.30 320,197.46 649,849.44 317,552.07 677,359.97 (38,315.89) 263,090.46 (435,774.68) 447,397.42 239,173.03 618,542.80 (104,350.48) 348,074.20 (611,976.58) 330,549.71 (848,823.14) 694,043.53 (398,933.29) 424,013.06 132,220.46 495,061.17 497,049.69 815,994.24 (619,013.21) 858,068.06 32,169.34 405,945.11 501,809.04 (170,235.88) (746,132.88) (130,366.24) 224,574.92 799,731.45 (70,038.09) 626,257.96 (127,102.99) 763,870.43 (43,481.08) 805,544.75 (324,192.71) 1,204,335.79 (824,551.56) 804,364.57 (25,093.64) 814,749.86 185,812.17 283,872.69 89,629.71 169,771.59 (417,531.74) 386,722.91 (71,202.24) 838,765.88 (443,016.14) 519,311.91 27,269.91 1,023,372.46 (666,936.36) 612,432.24 (905,033.67) 372,715.35 640,547.88 99,739.47 115,692.92 552,424.17 174,016.72 159,419.94 (793,656.39) 134,232.24 113,064.45 509,054.19 73,631.34 42,232.96 (128,067.57) 523,692.41 (3,907.23) (55,664.71) 655,587.51 484,470.15 (90,797.11) 334,557.67 322,669.29 541,784.27 305,424.88 603,902.69 (341,677.23) (69,938.11) (15,978.64) 676,527.74 (309,695.61) 894,211.19 76,660.56 403,180.28 (320,304.15) 220,270.01 526,912.19 1,079,459.93 (278,328.99) Simulation_Results : Page 22 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 550,205.39 77,544.06 365,631.72 607,884.41 334,314.32 592,497.69 357,141.41 647,379.28 662,046.77 1,369,895.44 354,098.10 141,405.66 251,483.99 388,983.83 789,543.41 582,261.70 704,662.96 1,220,129.17 474,335.31 455,833.22 463,544.45 846,881.78 791,673.79 144,921.77 352,294.25 801,541.44 682,255.03 531,654.91 1,044,011.19 366,763.23 818,682.01 4,453.83 221,133.13 491,100.94 1,020,580.31 1,020,007.51 858,736.81 318,449.11 351,627.26 1,198,074.10 293,877.92 521,303.71 583,438.19 997,428.01 646,849.70 943,559.06 827,463.23 605,385.15 694,540.74 262,514.79 1,079,922.08 490,837.65 1,159,044.19 1,204,472.69 600,868.01 1,174,361.82 671,192.30 1,360,842.55 325,876.12 1,174,327.20 951,050.51 452,256.76 1,076,688.81 553,806.47 958,647.69 307,356.31 1,117,823.74 775,082.37 180,895.17 787,750.57 987,312.53 905,595.56 (495,106.06) 194,692.14 (562,143.21) (704,515.98) (318,678.32) (549,459.13) 496,742.62 54,718.40 (33,496.68) 407,434.65 409,988.11 102,356.49 (182,155.20) (619,508.20) (520,966.91) (108,192.29) 208,859.32 (213,581.43) 457,097.25 403,602.37 (301,927.07) 166,719.82 (465,776.04) (50,531.89) 58,756.03 (274,775.13) (451,546.24) 34,758.36 9,017.36 1,071,892.27 101,130.89 (15,754.75) (165,242.85) 92,464.05 (135,708.13) (67,568.64) (350,041.08) 61,310.66 (49,999.31) 34,382.86 (140,082.05) (598,050.33) 192,003.00 312,508.01 73,749.88 179,701.86 78,477.31 (549,081.16) 719,575.74 (386,586.22) (590,958.02) (28,969.83) (93,304.83) (329,870.05) (49,391.60) (120,465.67) (153,569.54) (342,644.27) (478,026.49) (146,481.08) (12,030.19) (302,394.22) (504,138.62) 477,770.00 869,033.87 (383,203.19) 349,039.69 274,266.98 286,255.46 (582,007.05) 985.18 (834,848.71) 509,708.27 434,274.73 (432,236.68) (181,126.78) Simulation_Results : Page 23 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 1,224,116.66 (71,789.90) 673,330.14 515,658.36 752,859.39 636,620.56 117,479.23 995,425.19 1,114,679.30 966,900.38 929,664.69 1,164,706.90 585,811.18 1,401,453.09 621,619.28 499,136.50 320,501.22 (147,536.97) 375,811.92 872,152.33 184,858.99 206,034.97 281,404.23 1,514,515.95 748,698.11 688,290.78 679,074.04 418,351.08 634,880.99 29,688.47 100,265.46 1,478,158.23 227,684.87 478,995.20 461,136.15 1,258,888.92 685,366.00 686,307.25 661,801.24 865,839.56 248,964.35 389,290.38 719,164.03 770,149.38 (22,322.26) 927,329.12 283,072.12 824,924.29 731,769.48 1,335,122.05 727,858.55 413,774.28 449,838.97 106,004.67 407,191.44 924,549.02 788,019.70 734,486.98 (115,343.23) 99,657.18 860,914.13 580,897.36 806,694.18 1,229,982.40 554,476.04 376,596.56 91,373.44 507,360.66 738,022.67 773,938.68 617,994.66 443,884.96 709,644.61 462,778.06 68,160.74 729,981.13 461,181.29 (61,154.22) 206,787.00 (622,404.11) 24,597.47 476,481.96 24,629.32 (178,108.00) 575,753.84 (384,145.76) 80,983.24 (28,393.55) 10,633.05 (61,467.66) 195,751.78 (66,756.61) (790,415.07) (159,316.61) 265,723.04 (310,343.97) 24,210.11 203,408.81 286,855.78 (195,518.44) (239,217.25) (324,640.80) (395,128.67) 496,654.89 (104,685.49) (104,009.14) (212,727.32) (79,861.19) 89,813.30 (258,167.83) 83,276.65 53,203.20 51,140.75 (798,186.64) 105,545.96 (66,486.49) (297,415.77) (87,573.09) 622,350.76 (69,558.86) 393,581.16 377,813.44 421,550.52 248,951.11 637,505.06 70,623.76 527,205.79 448,331.41 (395,420.81) (136,777.57) (155,932.05) (176,515.07) 79,866.62 115,634.82 (738,960.93) (237,162.86) 557,654.35 (151,169.37) (9,042.73) (179,155.30) 414,254.00 (414,149.68) 239,406.45 (258,634.81) (246,220.87) (124,374.50) 32,256.94 (46,355.89) Simulation_Results : Page 24 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 1,388,334.43 1,018,507.57 361,100.10 149,251.29 325,415.03 504,120.14 1,010,638.95 715,702.80 515,719.39 442,458.43 1,066,707.31 908,009.06 385,104.06 768,985.08 216,579.65 852,284.90 379,884.97 495,202.05 760,102.80 141,158.86 646,517.42 808,923.53 1,120,831.75 537,490.72 933,594.71 (345,544.04) 620,975.51 200,238.75 74,804.51 771,674.80 806,330.70 913,453.95 1,030,148.97 1,069,110.19 126,100.99 330,356.18 748,151.08 1,089,321.95 527,774.41 970,412.15 335,029.25 1,035,774.16 1,687,118.04 584,112.09 940,021.21 937,802.78 423,479.99 341,646.79 240,437.38 5,580.37 604,156.60 345,359.45 423,121.48 889,522.88 452,324.72 324,569.12 830,221.84 295,109.76 598,372.79 213,079.57 515,807.24 166,928.01 315,546.52 349,166.19 570,684.17 796,188.71 220,011.47 658,234.30 879,547.28 97,756.25 659,179.18 1,701,810.34 460,834.47 645,346.90 (217,338.46) (6,024.42) (62,685.56) 282,888.08 (157,073.11) 105,326.25 90,815.47 (93,252.94) (638,873.55) 289,804.81 657,077.13 69,697.83 590,947.05 59,355.07 437,258.78 90,808.42 106,922.98 20,282.24 179,664.01 819,700.21 (220,128.41) (265,524.10) (71,181.04) (600,454.56) (245,583.27) (360,026.08) (238,989.10) (399,681.31) (4,629.34) (188,091.79) (151,539.34) (74,337.37) 78,186.11 (139,737.36) 640,583.51 450,845.98 (6,728.16) 239,364.99 (336,733.85) (345,689.56) (507,742.67) (415,822.58) (334,989.65) (314,546.86) (396,182.48) (179,104.01) (222,130.88) (138,187.84) (69,998.11) 258,525.25 67,991.94 (965,686.71) 186,919.31 (416,073.20) 306,605.75 (467,300.92) (155,391.54) (230,357.72) 177,570.86 (148,937.41) (288,467.64) (233,678.49) (276,223.85) (178,577.07) (489,460.46) 236,586.21 (110,715.80) 15,339.88 (116,194.22) (184,036.01) (598,615.14) (397,822.56) (48,337.29) 18,983.45 Simulation_Results : Page 25 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 460,996.31 641,169.23 665,697.44 660,168.14 (409,279.87) 758,286.09 867,966.06 470,479.15 116,258.00 302,386.18 1,146,551.88 633,383.86 3,786.57 356,017.94 449,602.00 890,381.23 579,471.36 1,518,764.67 458,684.44 317,852.02 953,174.79 387,038.55 158,045.79 318,422.10 1,182,633.84 469,703.16 715,396.99 764,440.86 (149,028.63) 565,231.48 712,830.24 77,407.07 746,002.99 1,197,344.17 1,012,668.39 566,715.56 1,290,961.92 535,194.42 490,964.51 783,143.77 1,184,277.42 918,099.33 1,016,404.57 930,518.65 795,292.99 711,129.24 616,148.17 918,791.68 568,850.60 693,567.03 591,733.01 1,099,020.97 865,915.05 127,482.90 487,452.36 908,416.92 739,636.40 539,384.11 948,254.35 714,166.82 657,178.53 656,541.88 918,271.87 821,808.68 630,067.15 467,654.12 441,547.20 1,137,374.89 1,070,981.88 297,831.51 762,834.62 363,329.85 426,472.65 613,220.27 (588,246.63) (178,285.18) 269,849.25 (863,238.35) (593,831.88) 124,721.98 317,647.22 (505,160.14) (89,979.19) 222,454.67 (227,011.06) 15,915.14 (324,702.14) 641,096.21 37,727.93 260,659.35 108,575.56 194,413.47 105,392.68 (428,649.22) 104,968.94 364,374.16 137,830.56 529,871.15 (382,552.25) (775,382.40) 518,632.03 (347,961.05) 65,563.20 471,592.36 (39,544.34) (596,601.11) (331,486.32) (148,235.60) 228,725.95 (848,105.60) 63,082.59 (306,394.86) (384,399.31) (107,330.11) (189,450.78) 318,009.90 (107,044.78) 284,292.20 420,365.40 (215,724.60) (916,297.77) (441,408.14) (547,962.56) 115,619.12 (46,696.93) (124,592.55) (321,363.64) (638,450.23) 64,764.50 (254,050.68) (109,127.84) (154,610.50) 203,733.37 (141,700.94) (7,316.65) (319,754.90) (425,465.90) 437,159.12 (156,117.71) 509,350.21 (478,516.78) (607,197.96) 398,566.00 550,051.31 279,495.55 (289,143.38) (281,871.23) 660,963.28 Simulation_Results : Page 26 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 1,022,791.21 771,459.36 937,697.78 653,006.07 544,786.36 303,047.90 549,071.30 910,777.06 1,046,509.74 999,624.90 563,569.09 361,515.24 746,207.05 175,887.56 587,223.37 935,233.93 156,770.66 (31,771.90) 553,372.67 601,298.37 661,014.62 530,055.47 112,019.74 1,178,928.64 423,116.28 450,099.01 811,192.38 408,550.93 472,055.09 676,092.81 947,855.70 108,819.50 264,118.01 399,476.29 677,305.01 137,494.22 180,662.28 598,733.20 396,906.71 411,220.76 109,335.12 697,236.10 743,014.83 1,174,346.39 (46,695.77) 145,358.61 573,075.38 526,627.12 485,593.88 78,686.25 175,760.56 1,506,751.61 455,626.93 1,170,005.39 782,708.95 451,760.75 1,177,986.98 390,822.76 (52,144.36) 518,838.99 554,767.74 910,962.62 601,366.14 239,668.64 304,757.73 393,309.97 677,966.08 673,810.41 313,877.45 285,437.80 524,954.17 705,713.68 982,409.62 1,076,030.86 157,448.88 486,202.06 (189,788.12) (105,132.79) 166,218.94 (16,336.89) (518,589.40) 120,715.78 604,338.00 30,807.14 160,849.93 (159,284.76) 122,703.42 (468,040.69) 445,653.94 (29,390.02) 470,547.45 222,995.96 51,908.28 14,691.12 376,012.87 (287,486.69) (226,626.06) 394,378.75 (330,447.86) (179,729.57) 15,356.46 52,170.57 (40,845.68) 391,268.62 363,570.62 31,426.28 (47,418.87) (230,987.30) (194,702.76) (287,473.31) 280,296.45 (5,043.57) 242,028.42 (395,851.27) 293,634.09 (458,919.71) 135,407.43 175,915.64 (437,855.87) (182,473.70) (131,759.96) (480,314.13) (143,821.04) 264,484.42 476,615.19 (528,561.37) (245,110.17) (327,118.80) (483,895.49) (300,379.77) (190,048.47) 578,457.32 (834,636.31) (67,005.80) (616,579.82) (235,391.90) (499,408.98) (620,688.52) (62,555.45) (339,165.43) (418,782.07) 88,512.32 187,246.74 (361,025.10) 298,981.59 167,160.06 13,987.18 (140,281.86) Simulation_Results : Page 27 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940 (190,278.47) 337,370.08 863,288.71 (214,882.11) 425,107.83 (201,336.95) 55,045.37 (53,130.10) 767,256.65 (316,263.05) 443,196.41 (41,853.04) 500,728.43 (125,904.68) 298,684.81 (392,489.00) 815,103.19 (241,214.49) 396,941.80 215,583.02 539,047.31 (410,505.03) 1,056,562.15 (84,571.19) 236,528.61 (200,534.87) 990,650.76 755,494.22 922,423.00 13,165.04 692,140.42 (152,298.12) 874,204.67 (416,321.20) (83,612.36) 125,828.03 979,237.75 (736,309.81) 1,248,281.38 (719,941.38) 856,074.25 152,739.80 192,611.30 (133,206.43) 536,985.33 141,671.87 238,864.54 (496,192.06) 1,002,033.62 (296,034.79) (912.47) 175,909.60 476,153.71 78,679.46 207,431.65 (555,856.06) 507,162.54 274,020.57 1,006,854.37 50,966.38 619,124.06 154,986.26 600,732.25 209,228.70 356,326.76 (574,105.93) 158,630.28 4,193.83 542,035.97 430,236.07 48,804.52 (240,600.90) 409,665.81 (124,848.28) 618,536.88 (242,064.74) 177,961.51 (264,697.92) 530,077.70 43,968.01 283,807.09 81,828.58 1,015,831.56 83,359.21 685,656.09 (223,227.90) 884,982.62 44,654.39 192,062.04 (68,135.41) 1,546,355.16 (240,954.42) 544,976.50 207,111.45 450,995.00 (216,438.61) 312,450.60 175,452.48 353,914.09 (194,628.49) 265,178.77 (178,965.08) (378,615.40) (191,364.14) 51,361.58 129,861.08 715,249.86 (579,022.70) 733,589.18 (190,245.79) 444,397.98 55,053.21 835,754.08 (332,797.13) 1,262,108.00 (862,478.04) 1,290,497.03 (27,068.27) 285,890.58 44,524.62 504,323.80 (157,987.76) 609,702.32 (514,283.17) 1,323,857.18 (65,256.22) 761,501.56 (56,318.67) 467,493.71 72,546.18 864,297.16 (578,350.48) 661,711.00 (544,549.91) 212,337.50 634,684.39 1,184,710.55 (491,613.34) 219,827.77 3,035.46 1,111,956.91 280,900.74 96,319.01 (1,114,812.36) 613,623.93 (214,307.84) (534,883.52) 21,617.49 Simulation_Results : Page 28 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls Simulation_Results 4/1/2008 8:16 AM 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 266,124.29 507,472.10 465,544.63 398,334.00 43,331.77 1,352,473.29 554,746.55 47,911.12 628,596.42 74,592.40 672,483.64 1,306,027.99 237,475.78 1,291,028.51 190,123.40 392,484.42 500,393.81 499,961.12 494,551.75 1,029,643.01 521,371.67 786,507.13 1,116,481.55 584,026.46 1,027,672.00 707,164.43 302,854.02 (20,434.25) 89,499.93 607,196.22 759,374.09 1,005,740.82 658,494.15 691,943.96 307,066.43 650,376.53 1,024,207.93 730,139.03 877,726.05 (285,535.39) 564,136.58 331,873.17 1,356,939.88 559,313.49 1,366,488.02 675,585.66 599,257.00 693,508.53 536,747.39 860,155.01 484,615.20 603,735.22 918,792.85 716,476.15 586,639.15 839,012.80 751,740.09 825,280.56 499,916.02 914,609.75 (456,143.98) (871,735.57) 802,272.16 435,308.23 (207,734.06) 286,110.56 657,624.42 (83,871.82) 38,407.29 (354,081.93) 23,454.87 (213,012.85) (437,369.38) (423,683.75) (664,642.90) (560,907.16) (246,275.42) (91,630.47) 518,149.26 (129,643.09) 139,544.25 (234,649.76) (94,541.40) 249,181.60 (513,070.44) (192,691.35) (116,650.33) (80,210.58) (210,375.27) (653,002.25) (354,833.66) 103,581.17 (373,592.49) (767,656.24) (422,272.23) (24,708.96) (752,789.00) (349,527.47) (8,262.27) (491,099.42) 89,793.14 (284,416.19) (110,843.63) (728,049.98) 21,729.03 (136,026.44) 220,222.95 (289,214.74) (746,537.68) 474,898.54 (427,701.12) (289,081.28) 49,405.24 (379,310.21) 331,750.41 302,255.72 (424,752.99) (123,573.59) (275,971.59) 170,042.23 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 Simulation_Results : Page 29 $ASQProject_Model[4].xls.xls EVA 4/1/2008 8:16 AM Economic Profit v1.0 1-Jan-2001 0 Jun-01 Capital Cost of Capital Capital * Cost EBIT EBIT * (1-T) [ EBIT * (1-T) ] - Capital Cost Economic Profit Discounted 579,755 1,000,000 10.00% 100,000 175,000 122,500 22,500 80,000 250,000 175,000 95,000 60,000 311,250 217,875 157,875 40,000 360,438 252,306 212,306 20,000 399,066 279,346 259,346 300,000 1 Jun-02 800,000 2 Jun-03 600,000 3 Jun-04 400,000 4 Jun-05 200,000 5 Jun-06 6 Jun-07 Total - 3,000,000 - 1,495,753 - 1,047,027 747,027 Units:$0 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 EVA : Page 30 Operating Leverage Target EBIT 62,500 0 Jun-01 Sales Volume Price per Unit Sales Revenue Variable Costs Annual Cost per Unit Manufacturing Cost Contribution Fixed Costs Selling and Administration Costs Recovery of Development Costs Total Fixed Costs Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT) Break Even Break even volume Break even revenue Contribution percentage Excess/(Deficit) Units Excess/(Deficit) Revenue 1 Jun-02 50,000 50.00 2,500,000 2 Jun-03 50,000 47.50 2,375,000 3 Jun-04 50,000 45.13 2,256,250 4 Jun-05 50,000 42.87 2,143,438 5 Jun-06 50,000 40.73 2,036,266 40.00 36.00 32.40 29.16 26.24 (2,000,000) (1,800,000) (1,620,000) (1,458,000) (1,312,200) 500,000 575,000 636,250 685,438 724,066 (125,000) (200,000) (325,000) 175,000 (125,000) (200,000) (325,000) 250,000 (125,000) (200,000) (325,000) 311,250 (125,000) (200,000) (325,000) 360,438 (125,000) (200,000) (325,000) 399,066 Q = F / (P-V) Q*P (P - V) / P 32,500 1,625,000 20.00 17,500 875,000 28,261 1,342,391 24.21 21,739 1,032,609 25,540 1,152,505 28.20 24,460 1,103,745 23,707 1,016,310 31.98 26,293 1,127,127 22,443 913,987 35.56 27,557 1,122,279 Target EBIT of 62,500 Revenue including target EBIT Excess/(Deficit) Units Excess/(Deficit) Revenue Q = (F + EBIT) / (P-V) Q*P 38,750 1,937,500 11,250 562,500 28,261 1,342,391 21,739 1,032,609 25,540 1,152,505 24,460 1,103,745 23,707 1,016,310 26,293 1,127,127 22,443 913,987 27,557 1,122,279 Cash break even Cash revenue Excess/(Deficit) Units Excess/(Deficit) Revenue Q = (F - Deprn) / (P-V) Q*P 12,500 625,000 37,500 1,875,000 10,870 516,304 39,130 1,858,696 9,823 443,271 40,177 1,812,979 9,118 390,889 40,882 1,752,549 8,632 351,533 41,368 1,684,732 Degree of Operating Leverage Operating leverage (Sales - VC) / EBIT 2.86 2.30 2.04 1.90 1.81 Selected: Cash break even Graph line Cash break even 36 Cash break even Q = (F - Deprn) / (P-V) 12,500 10,870 9,823 9,118 8,632 Selected: Cash break even 14,000 12,500 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 10,870 9,823 9,118 8,632 © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929 v1.0 1-Jan-2001 6 Jun-07 - Total/Mean 250,000 37.70 11,310,953 - 27.30 (8,190,200) 3,120,753 - (625,000) (1,000,000) (1,625,000) 1,495,753 - 22,075 1,008,366 23.32 19,591 876,793 - 23,117 1,060,449 18,550 824,710 - 8,490 387,833 33,176 1,497,326 - 1.82 - 8,490 8,490 Total/Mean Explanation v1.0 1-Jan-2001 Notes This model is a project model: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Calculate single point net present value Scenario analysis Sensitivity analysis Probability Risk adjusted discount rate Standard deviation Coefficient of variation Certainty equivalents Real options theory Simulation © Systematic Finance plc : Tel +44 (0)1483 532929