Market Outlook Albania Weekly Report - PDF by qkz10053

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									(bid 01 June '07
                                                                                              Market Outlook Albania
                                                                                                      Weekly Report
                                                                                                                                               18 June 2010

                                                                                                domestic news
      Content                                                                •   The  Albanian  Minister  of Finances, Mr. Ridvan  Bode emphasized
                                                                                 during  an  interview  for  a  private  television  that  Albania  did  not
                                                                                 face  any  recession  during  2009.  The  only  problem  the  Albanian
                                     Domestic News
                                                                                 economy  had  to  deal  with,  said  Mr.  Bode  was  slowing  down  of
                                          Forex Market                           the  economical  growth,  which  came  as  a  result  of  the  global
                                                                                 economical crisis. Mr. Bode also said the last quarter of 2009 and
                                      Money Market
                                                                                 the  first  quarter  of  2010  were  the  worst  period  which  resulted
                                   TB & Bonds Market                             with a  weak  performance  of the country’s  economy.  This  period
                                                                                 was also considered as the bottom line for the growth slowdown
                                                                                 of  the  Albanian  economy.  Since  than,  the  recovery  has  taken
                                                                                 over. ( Ministry of Finance webpage )  
                                                                                  
EUR / ALL RATE'S TREND                                                       •   Minister  of  Economy  Transport  and  Telecommunications,  Mr
 137.00                                         136.69    136.66   136.73        Dritan Prifti took part in a meeting organized from DIHA( German
            136.53               136.46
 136.50                                                                          Chamber of Trade  and Industry in Albania ). During his speech he
 136.00
                                                                                 said that only last week, during a conference in Hamburg, he was
 135.50
                                                                                 very pleased to see over 150 German businesses were interested
                  EUR/ALL                                                        for investing in Albania. According to the webpage of the Ministry
 135.00

            14-Jun               15-Jun        16-Jun    17-Jun    18-Jun
                                                                                 of  Economy  trade  with  Germany  stays  at  roughly  211  million
                                                                                 euros,  where  90  million euros are imports  and 20‐30  million  are
USD / ALL RATE'S TREND
                                                                                 exports.    Minister  of  Economy, Mr. Prifti  says that  Albania  aims
 112.00
                  111.60
                                                                                 raising the volumes traded between the two countries ( Ministry
                                                                                 raising the volumes traded between the two countries.( Ministry
 111.50
                                 111.67                                          of Economy Trade and Energy webpage ) 
 111.00
                                                111.27
                                                                                  
 110.50

 110.00
                                                          110.59    110.51   •   Albanian  government  renovates  the  contract  with  Microsoft
                     USD / ALL
 109.50                                                                          Company. The Minister of Innovation and ICT Genc Pollo the CEO
           14-Jun                15-Jun        16-Jun    17-Jun    18-Jun        of Microsoft  for  Europe Jan  Muehlfeit  and the  CEO  of  Microsoft
GBP / ALL RATE'S TREND                                                           for  Albania  signed  yesterday  the  new  agreement  between  the
                                                                                 government  and  Microsoft  Company.  This  agreement  consists
 165.00                                         164.71
            164.57               164.50                                          mainly  in  building  a  contemporary  infrastructure  of  information
 164.50
                                                                    163.92       and  communication  technology  in  the  country  and  also  in  the
 164.00
                                                          163.51                 training  of  the  technical  staff  of  the  institutions  that  will  be
 163.50
                                                                                 included in the agreement. ( Ekonomia newspaper). 
 163.00
                  GBP / ALL
                                                                                  
 162.50

            14-Jun               15-Jun         16-Jun    17-Jun   18-Jun
CHF / ALL RATE'S TREND

 100.00                                                  99.32     99.59
  99.50

  99.00                                        98.41
          98.18
  98.50
                             97.73
  98.00
  97.50
  97.00              CHF / ALL
  96.50

            14-Jun               15-Jun         16-Jun    17-Jun   18-Jun
                                                                                                           fx market
EUR/USD                                BID    18-Jun-10      1.2371                          •   The dollar traded near three‐week high levels on Friday having risen for
                                                                                                 the second consecutive week, while the dollar appeared vulnerable for
                             EUR/USD                                                             further  losses.  The  greenback  was  affected  negatively  from  economic
 1.2400 
                                                                                                 data which resulted below their forecasts. U.S Treasury yields hit their
 1.2350 
                                                                                                 lowest in one week. The euro has gained some 2.0 percent against the
 1.2300 
 1.2250 
                                                                                                 dollar  during  this  week.  It rose  as  high  as  $  1.2417 while  lately  it  was
                                                                      EUR/USD
 1.2200                                                                                          trading at $ 1.2387. 
 1.2150                                                                                           
 1.2100                                                                                      •   Sterling  reached  its  strongest  level  in  a  one‐month  period  versus  a
           14‐Jun   15‐Jun    16‐Jun         17‐Jun       18‐Jun
                                                                                                 broadly weaker dollar on Friday, fueled by better UK data and improved
GBP/USD                                BID    18-Jun-10      1.4807                              risk tolerance from investors. The pound was up by 0.3 percent on the
                                                                                                 day  versus  the  greenback  trading  at  $  1.4872  after  having  previously
                             GBP/USD
                                                                                                 reached $ 1.4887 its highest since May 13. Against the euro, the pound
 1.4850 
                                                                                                 was quite flat on the day trading at 83.40 pence per euro. 
 1.4800                                                                                           
 1.4750                                                                                      •   The Swiss franc stayed near all time high levels on Friday after the Swiss
                                                                      GBP/USD
                                                                                                 National  Bank  dropped  its  promise  to  fight  excessive  appreciation  of
 1.4700 
                                                                                                 the  Swiss  currency.  The  Swissie  was  little  changed  against  the  euro
 1.4650                                                                                          trading  near all time  highs of 1.3766 francs  per euro. It was also quite
           14‐Jun   15‐Jun    16‐Jun         17‐Jun       18‐Jun
                                                                                                 flat against the dollar trading at 1.1122 francs per dollar.   
USD/CHF                                BID    18-Jun-10      1.1106
                                                                                                  
                             USD/CHF                                                         •   The US dollar has fallen even against the Albanian Lek during this week
 1.1500 
                                                                                                 reflecting  its  drop  in  international  markets  even  in  Albania.  On  the
 1.1400                                                                                          other  side  the  euro  has  traded  quite  flat  versus  lek  during  this  week.
 1.1300                                                                                          The greenback has lost roughly 2.0 percent against the Albanian lek on
 1.1200 
                                                                      USD/CHF
                                                                                                 the week  fixing at 110.51 lek per dollar on Friday while the euro  is up
 1.1100                                                                                          by  0.2  percent  comaprin  to  last  Friday  fixing  at  136.73  lek  per  euro
 1.1000 
                                                                                                 according  to  Bank  of  Albania.  The  dollar  is  still  up  by  more  than  15.0
 1.0900 
           14 J
           14‐Jun   15‐Jun
                    15 J      16‐Jun
                              16 J           17 J
                                             17‐Jun       18‐Jun
                                                          18 J                                   percent during this year
                                                                                                 percent during this year.

EUR/GBP                                BID    18-Jun-10      0.8353


                             EUR/GBP
 0.8380                                                                         RAIFFEISEN BANK ALBANIA                                                        Friday, June 18, 2010
 0.8360 
 0.8340 
 0.8320                                                                                    Fx rates                               Bid                                  Ask
 0.8300                                                               EUR/GBP             USD / ALL                            107.90                                112.90
 0.8280 
 0.8260 
                                                                                          EUR / ALL                            134.10                                139.10
 0.8240                                                                                   GBP / ALL                            161.26                                166.26
           14‐Jun   15‐Jun    16‐Jun         17‐Jun       18‐Jun
                                                                                          CHF / ALL                              96.78                               101.78
EUR/CHF                                BID    18-Jun-10      1.3737


                             EUR/CHF                                            BoA Fix Rates 's Performance%
 1.4000 

 1.3900                                                                                   EUR/ALL                    USD / ALL

                                                                                 1 day           0.05%                -0.07%
 1.3800 
                                                                      EUR/CHF
                                                                                1 week           0.19%                -1.93%
 1.3700 
                                                                                1 month          0.04%                -1.52%
 1.3600 
           14‐Jun   15‐Jun    16‐Jun         17‐Jun       18‐Jun
                                                                                                           money market
   Friday, June 18, 2010                                                                          •    Tribor  interest  rates  were  mixed  on  Friday.  The  overnight  rate
  1.40%                                                                             1.2850%            decreased  to  5.76  percent from Thursday’s level  of  5.90 percent
                                                                        1.1570%                        as the good day to  day  liquidity in  the  market pushed this  tenor
  1.20%
                                                                                       1.1831%
                                                            1.0150%                                    down. On the other side the one‐week tribor rate was up slightly
  1.00%
                                                                                  0.9606%              on  the  day  to  6.33  percent  from the  previous  day  figure  of  6.30
  0.80%                                         0.7320%                                                percent. The key three‐month tribor rate resulted at 7.06 percent,
                                                                    0.7506%
                                                                                                       rising  from  7.01  percent  while the  one‐year  rate  was flat  on  the
  0.60%
                                0.4440%                                                                day  at  8.75  percent.  The  overnight  deposit  rate  at  Bank  of
          0.3540%   0.3660%                     0.5382%
  0.40%                                                                                                Albania,  wich  acts  as  a  floor  for  money  market  rates  is  at  3.50
  0.20%   0.2959%
                    0.3288%     0.3473%                                                                percent. 
                                                                                                        
                        7.18
  0.00%
                                                                                                  •    Euribor  rates  continued  their  steady  rise  on  Friday,  as  the  euro
           O/N        1week     1 month     3 months 6 months 9 months               1 year
                                                                                                       zone debt crisis continued to fuel the rise of money market rates.
                                  LIBOR(USD)              EURIBOR
                                                                                                       The key three‐month euribor rate went up to 0.732 percent from
   Friday, June 18, 2010                                                                               the previous day level of 0.729 percent.  The six‐month rate rose
  10.0%
                                                                                                       to  1.015  percent  from  Thursday’s  level  of  1.011  percent  while
   9.5%                                                                                                even  the  one‐year  interest  rate  was  up  on  the  day  at  1.285
   9.0%
                                                                                                       percent from 1.281 percent. The European Central Bank  decided
   8.5%
                                                                                    8.75%              to keep unchanged at 1.0 percent its key interest rate during last
   8.0%
   7.5%                                                                7.83%                           week. 
   7.0%
   6.5%                                                 7.06%
                                      6.67%
   6.0%                 6.33%
   5.5%
           5.76%
   5.0%
            O/N         1week         1 month        3 months         6 months      1 year

                                               TRIBOR



                                                                                                         Interbank MM Rates
One-year Tribor weekly                                                                                         Weighted Average
 8.76%
                                                                                                 O/N                             5.01%
 8.75%
                                                                                                 WEEK                            5.30%
 8.75%                                          8.75%               8.75%          8.75%
 8.74%
 8.74%
 8.73%
 8.73%                        8.73%
 8.72%
 8.72%      8.72%                                                                                Interest rates on BoA's Instruments ALL
 8.71%
 8.71%
          14-Jun-10       15-Jun-10        16-Jun-10            17-Jun-10        18-Jun-10       REPO/REVERSE REPO                                         5.25%
                                                                                                 Overnight Deposit                                         3.50%
                       One-year Tribor weekly
                                                                                                 Overnight Credit                                          6.00%
                                                                              t-bills and t-bonds yields



T-Bills weighted average performance                                                •   Bank  of  Albania  organized  a  six‐month  and  one‐year  T‐Bills  auctions
                                                                                        during this week. 
                                                                                         
                                                                                    •   Second tier banks offered 690 million lek more in the six‐month auction
                                                            7.9060% 7.9143%             and 1.87 billion lek more in the one‐year auction. 
                                   7.1546% 7.1180%                                  •   The weighted average yield decreased slightly by 0.0366 percent in the
                                                                                        six‐month  auction  while  rose  by  0.0083  percent  in  the  twelve‐month
        5.8977% 5.8586%
                                                                                        auction. 
                                                                                         
                                                                                    •   Raiffeisen Bank trading portfolio is 1.29 billion lek. 

                                                                                 




           3 months                     6 months                12 months

                          previous auction   last auction




Issue number                                       AL3M020910                   AL6M181110                     AL12M020611
Issue date                                          03-Jun-10                    17-Jun-10                       17-Jun-10
Maturity date                                        2-Sep-10                    16-Dec-10                       16-Jun-10
Nominal Value (mln ALL)                              4,150.00                     8,940.00                        5,860.00

Total Bids Accepted                                  4,150.00                    8,940.00                         5,860.00
WA Yield                                            5.858628%                   7.117959%                       7.9142881%
Minimum Yield                                          5.85%                       7.00%                           7.00%
Maximum Yield                                          5.88%                       7.17%                           7.99%
                                                         acknowledgements
           This report was completed on
                                                           Friday, June 18, 2010

           Raiffeisen TREASURY & INVESTMENT BANKING
Head       Christian CANACARIS -Board Member             tel.++355 4 / 238 1062               email : christian.canacaris@raiffeisen.al

Editor :   Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Head       Joan Canaj                                    tel.++ 355 4 2222 669 (ext 1122)     email : joan.canaj@raiffeisen.al
           Joen Fezolli                                  tel.++ 355 4 238 1069 (ext 1069)     email : joen.fezolli@raiffeisen.al
           Valbona Gjeka                                 tel. (ext 1120)                      email : valbona.gjeka@raiffeisen.al


           Raiffeisen TRADING & SALES contacts:

           Rigers KRISTO               Head of Sales     tel.++355 4 / 238 1076 (ext 2636)    email : rigers.kristo@raiffeisen.al
           Albana Grillo               Sales Desk        tel.++355 4 / 238 1065 ( ext 2637)   email : albana.grillo@raiffeisen.al
           Aida KUKLECI                Sales Desk        tel.++355 4 / 238 1065 (ext 2637)    email : aida.kukleci@raiffeisen.al
           Trading
           Donalda GjORGA              Chief Dealer      tel.++355 4 / 238 1064 (ext 2631)    email :   donalda.gjorga@raiffeisen.al
           Enkeleida Ziu               FX dealer         tel.++355 4 / 238 1066 (ext 2632)    email :   enkeleida.ziu@raiffeisen.al
           Jonida ISUFI                MM Dealer         tel.++355 4 / 238 1063 (ext 2633)    email :   jonida.isufi@raiffeisen.al
           Anila SALLATA               FI Desk           tel.++355 4 / 238 1070 (ext 2634)    email :   anila.sallata@raiffeisen.al
           Rezarta ARAPI               FI Desk           tel.++355 4 / 238 1067 (ext 2635)    email :   rezarta.arapi@raiffeisen.al

           Raiffeisen INVESTMENT BANKING contacts :

Head       Mirela BORICI                                 tel.++355 4 / 2233389                email : mirela.borici@raiffeisen.al

           Abbraviations

           IMF             International Monetary Fund
           BoA             Bank of Albania
           MoF             Ministry of Finance
                                  y
           BoJ             Bank of Japan
           FED             Federal Reserve
           ECB             European Central Bank
           SNB             Swiss National Bank

								
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