Uneasy Stability

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					THEWORLDTODAY.ORG APRIL 2010
PAGE 4
         IRAN
         Richard Dalton, ASSOCIATE FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE

         FROM THE EDITOR
         Two ways of looking at the world –
         states pursuing national interests
         and international solutions to
         global problems – are both visible
         in this edition.
         Russian interest in the Arctic is
         about to get a very high-profile
         aerial boost and, with a British
         election approaching, Argentina’s
         claim to the Falkland Islands has
         suddenly forced itself back onto
         the agenda.
         In a recent speech British Prime
         Minister, Gordon Brown, entered
         the debate: ‘Historians may look
         back at this period as one in which
         countries briefly set aside national
         interests for the common good,
         before returning to their old ways.
         Or – as I recommend – they will
         regard this as the period in which we
         tentatively, gradually, if often
         haltingly, but then decisively, laid
         the foundations for sustainable
         global cooperation and the first
         truely global society’.
         On page 11 Cambridge University
         Professor Christopher Hill concludes
         that ‘muddling through’ will not do.
         Britain may need to choose
         between being prominent across
         the board internationally and                     Yet again, Iran appears to be in a strong position
         downscaling to the level of a country             in the nuclear stand-off, with the international
         like Canada or Spain.
         At this critical moment a major
                                                           community labouring to agree a response. In the
         Chatham House project is reviewing                next couple of months, the United States and
         Britain's international priorities                allies will present a draft Security Council
         and policy choices.
                                                           resolution imposing additional sanctions. The
         And choices are unavoidable
         because of the pinch of the global                international debate, including on the currently
         financial crisis, which Paola Subacchi             dim prospects for renewed nuclear talks, will
         sees on page 24 as a catalyst for
         change in the international monetary
                                                           take place against the background of uncertain
         system: ‘Only through a coordinated               internal events in Iran. The current system is
         effort can countries – “new and old               likely to stay put for the next few years at least,
         power centers” – share global
         responsibility’.                                  but it is fragile and there are other scenarios.
                         | INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
                                                                                     THEWORLDTODAY.ORG APRIL 2010
                                                                                                                                                 PAGE 5




UneasyStability
t               HE POPULAR CHALLENGE IN IRAN HAS FADED
                 for now, but it will return sooner or later. The
                 system of government presided over by
                 Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader,
                 has surmounted the crisis over its authority,
                 but not the crisis over its legitimacy. A
political battle is underway for the support,
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: [...] several drastic steps they have taken in the last decade, starting with the attack on the Tehran University dormitories in 1999, proceeding through the fixing of the 2004 parliamentary elections and the assistance given to Ahmadinejad in presidential elections the following year, and on to the distortion of the election results in President Ahmedinejad's favour last June, have left the conservatives more andmore exposed internally. [...] Rafsanjani's recent emphasis on the Leader's authority, his return to lead Friday prayers inTehran, and appearance at an important occasion for the first time since June in the same room as Ahmadinejad.
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