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					       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004




 Crime Statistics and EU Organised Crime
           Threat Assessment

                                     Prof. Dr. Tom Vander Beken

       EU Forum for the prevention of organised crime
    Towards comparable information on crime, victimisation
         and criminal justice – an EU wide approach
        European Commission, Brussels, 9 July 2004

www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   1
       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                                                      Overview

 1. What organised crime information is available in the
    EU?

 2. What does the EU need?

 3. The EU-Action Plan

 4. Conclusions




www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   2
       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



     1. Information on OC- State of the art
      Collecting: All MS and Europol collect information on
      organised crime. Nearly all information is law
      enforcement information. Definitions for data collection
      and data collection plans differ from MS to MS.

      Analysing: Organised crime information is analysed
      by all MS and Europol, but in different ways. This
      makes the national reports very hybrid and the
      drafting of an EU picture extremely difficult. Very few
      analytical standards. Mostly traditional crime analysis
      of criminals and groups. Hardly or not future oriented.
      No real threat assessment. Few assessments of harm.

      Comparing: National data and analysis are very
      different in nature and quality – comparability?
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       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                       2. What does the EU need?
      “Continued work is needed to improve the validity, reliability and international
      comparability of data on organised crime, and on the annual situation reports. In
      this connection a uniform concept of collection and use of data on organised crime and
      related phenomena should, to the maximum extent possible, be established so that a
      practical strategic analysis can be made, leading to the most appropriate measures to
      combat and prevent organised crime.
      A more proactive, intelligence-led approach is needed to detect and interrupt
      organised criminal activities, apprehend offenders, demolish criminal networks, and seize
      and confiscate the proceeds of crime. The targetting of investigation and the planning of
      the response of society to organised crime requires knowledge of the profile, motives and
      modus operandi of the offenders, the scope and trends in organised crime, the impact of
      organised crime in society, and the effectiveness of the response to organised crime. This
      knowledge includes operational data (data related to individual suspected and
      detected cases) and empirical data (qualitative and quantitative criminological
      data)…” (Millenniumstrategy, 2000)

      “Analytical capacity within law enforcement agencies of the Member States is a rather new
      tool and, if available, is usually applied within the context of evidence gathering but not for
      detection and anticipation of crime-facilitating opportunities and crime trends. Threat
      assessments, situation reports and risk assessments (identification of vulnerable
      areas) carried out by law enforcement agencies are often descriptive analysis
      products. These products should, in addition, be turned into explanatory
      (understanding the causes of crime) and predictive (prognosis of future
      developments) analytical products.” (Joint Report by the Commission Services and
      Europol, 2001)


www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   4
       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                          3. The EU-Action plan (a)
      2000: Scientific research for the Belgian Minister of Justice on the
      development of a new methodology for the Belgian organised crime
      report. Introduction of a future oriented, risk based four-pillared
      reporting system: environmental scan (1), oc-group analysis (2),
      counter measure analysis (3) and market (illegal and legal) analysis
      (4)

                Reporting on organised crime. A Shift from Description to
                Explanation in the Belgian Annual Report on Organised Crime (2001)


      2001: Acceptance of the IRCP-methodology at EU-level

                Action Plan to Study Organised Crime at European Level (Council of the
                European Union, 8 January 2002, Crimorg 133, 14959/01)


www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   5
       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                          3. The EU-action plan (b)
 › Conceptual, model, methodology and outcome (IRCP 2001 and
      Crimorg 2001)


                              CONCEPTUAL MODEL       METHODOLOGY         OUTCOME/PRODUCT




                                  SOCIETY              PEST Analysis       Environmental
                                                                                Scan
                                                                                           I
                                                         Network            Typology of
                               1. Organisation                                             N
                                                         Analysis          Organisations
                                                                                           D
                                                                                           I
                               2. Markets                                                  C              T
                                                                                           A              H
                               Illicit                  Market Scan        Involvement
                                                                                           T              R
                               Licit                    Market Scan        Vulnerability
                                                                                           O              E
                                                                                           R              A
                                                                                           S              T
                               3. Counter               Analysis of         Descriptive
                               Measures                  Methods              Survey




                                    HARM                                                               RISK
                                                                                                    ASSESSMENT




                                                                                                       ACTION
                                                                                                        PLAN




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       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                          3. The EU-Action plan (c)
      2002-2003: Scientific research for the European Commission on
      the development of a methodology for measuring organised crime in
      Europe (IRCP-Transcrime-Swedish Council for Crime Prevention)

                 › Pilot study in Belgium, Italy, Sweden and the EU: current practices
                     on measurement of oc, discussion on impact/harm oc, organised
                     crime risk index
                     (co-financed under Hippokrates I programme – JAI/2001/HIP/015)

                 › Feasibility study of a risk-based methodology across the European
                     Union: best practices in other MS on reporting on oc, including
                     analysis, data sources etc.
                     (co-financed under Hippokrates II programme - JAI/2002/HIP/009)

                 › Measuring Organised Crime in Europe (2004)


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       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                          3. The EU Action plan (d)

      2003-2004: Scientific research for the
      European Commission on the Measurement
      and Assessment of Vulnerability of Economic
      Sectors (MAVUS): development of a
      methodology and vulnerability of two
      economic sectors
      (IRCP and Transcrime)

      Financed under the AGIS programme
      (JAI/2003/AGIS/132)

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       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                          3. The EU Action Plan (e)
      2004-2005: Scientific research for the European
      Commission on the Method and the Assessment of
      Likely Future Trends in Organised Crime in Europe
      (OCO): development of a method for environmental
      scanning, draft of an EU scan and three national scans
      (Belgium, Sweden and Slovenia)
      (IRCP – Swedish Council for Crime Prevention – and
      Slovenian Office for Prevention of Corruption)

      (To be financed under AGIS programme 2004)



www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   9
       Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – Crime Statistics and Eu Organised Crime Threat Assessment - Brussels, 9 July 2004



                                             4. Conclusions
      Measurement of organised crime is a priority in the
      EU.

      Reliable and comparable information and
      statistics are absolutely necessary

      The methodological choices of the EU (risk/threat
      assessment) require not only data about crimes
      and criminals (law enforcement activity).

      Importance of environmental scans, (legal and
      illegal) market analysis (vulnerability studies and
      studies about involvement).


www.ircp.org   Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium   Tom.VanderBeken@UGent.be   T +32 (0)9 264 69 39, F +32 (0)9 264 84 93   10