The unbelievable career of Brett Favre - in numbers
What should happen in order to put brett Favre on top of all QB ever played professional football? The evaluation of QB's career is done by using statistics in 4 categories: Pass attempts, Completions, Passing yards and Passing TDs. Everybody was talking about TD number 421, but when you check the rest of the pile, the stable location of #4 is simply incredible. It is very hard to believe that any one might gain so fantastic achievement in the near (or even far) future. I examine the position of Favre in each of those 4 categories twice: all-time leaders and single-season leaders. One might say that reaching all-time first place is due to the fact he is on the field for so many years. That is the reason for looking at the single-season leader as well. I did even more then that, doing some calculation in order to come up with assumptions (based on the achievements of Favre during this season) of his position at the end of the season. The big question: Is he going to perform this year in a way that will make history of NFL change? Let's take a look…
Pass attempts
For all-time leader, Favre (with 8393 attempts in career) is already number one. Dad Marino is second with 8358. Drew Bledsoe is the single season all-time leader with 691 pass attempts (set in 1994). This season Favre leads all NFL QB's with 170 pass attempts in 4 games, average of 42.5 per game. He needs 522 more to break Blessoe record. If The grate #4 will Keep on throwing 42.5 attempts each game, he will gain a total amount of 680 for the entire season. This is a very good number (67 over his under his own best record for a single season set in 2006), but still short by 11 from the record. Conclusion: the pace so far in not enough to get to the top of the list in that category.
Completions
For all-time leader, Favre (with 5133 completions in career) is already number one. Dan Marino is second with 4967. Rich Gannon is the single season all-time leader with 418 completions (set in 2002). This season Favre leads all QB's with 112 pass attempts in 4 games, average of 28 per game. His WR must catch the ball 306 times during remaining games to bring their QB to the number written by the name of Gannnon. With the average of 28 completions for each game, Favre can reach 448 for the entire season (30 more than the current leader) and put his name in front of all other QB's. Conclusion: the current pace of Green-bay offense in completions will change the name of the QB in the list of single season leader in completions.
Passing yards
This is the only category where Favre is not the all-time leader. Having 58705 yards, he is second to Dan Marino (61361). Dan Marino is also the single season all-time leader with 5084 yards (set in 1984). This season Favre has 1205 pass attempts in 4 games, average of 301.25 per game. Here is about the numbers Favre needs to get in order to conquer the top of list in those two categories: For all-time leaders, the gap is 3556 yards to brake Marino record of 61361. With 301.25 for each game for the rest of the season, Favre will reach 61420 yards in the career, and skip over Marino to get first place. Conclusion: the current pace will bring #4 to be all-time leader in passing yards. For single season record, the gap is 3879 yard to brake Marino record of 5084. With 301.25 for each game for the rest of the season, Favre will reach 4820 for the entire season - only 264 under the record, and 407 over his under his best season (1995, with 4413 yards). Conclusion: the pace so far in not enough to be lead that list.
Passing TDs
This is the most talked-about category (mainly because of breaking it during the game in Minnesota). Therefore we all know Favre is the leader (with 422) over Dan Marino (420). If you remember, similar publicity was given to Peyton Manning during 2004 season when he broke Dan Marino (again, Marino….) for a single season with 49 TD. This season Favre has 8 TD passes. The current leader is Tom Brady with 13 so far (if he will continue to throw more the 3 TD passes each game, as he did since the beginning of the season, he might pass Manning and set a new record in this category). In order to reach Manning incredible record, Favre should throw 42 more TD Passes (3.5 TD per game). It is Very unlikely for a team like the packers to gain so many opportunities, so it is reasonable to expect that The Colts QB will see his name at the top of that list for a long time (unless the Patriots will keep on scoring like hell). Nevertheless, When you look deep down and explore that category, you find that the QB of the cheese-head team for the last 17 years leads the NFL together with Steve Young with 4 seasons finishing first with most TD Passes in that single season (1995, 1996, 1997, 2003). Dan Marino and Manning had 3 seasons being top QB with TD passes. Joe Montana, Everett and Warner had two.
Other accomplishments
Brett Favre: 8-time Pro Bowler, 18 post-season games (11 wins, 9 losses), 2 SB (win both). Dad Marino: 9-time Pro bowler, 18 post-season games (8 wins, 10 losses), 1 SB (lost to SF). John Elway: 9-time Pro bowler, 22 post-season games (14 wins, 8 losses), 5 SB (2 wins, 3 losses). I didn't check this category deeply, but I don't think there was a QB who played full season of 16 games for 14 consecutive years (and 2007 is still running…)
Here are the lists with the leader in each category:
Some more data: