Table 3-2 Population Forecasts

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Table 3-2 Population Forecasts Powered By Docstoc
					number of children, household size, and dwelling types. Similarities also exist in terms of   Table 3-2
labour force participation, places of work, and mobility.                                     Population Forecasts

                                                                                              Area                                 1996            2001            2006            2011             2021
                                                                                              Delta                             99,233         103,579         106,658          109,436         113,462
Future population growth outlook for the SFPR corridor will be guided by the plans and          North Delta                        NA           54,437             NA            53,994             NA
principles described in the municipal Official Community Plans (OCPs). For the portion
of the corridor located in Delta, the Corporation of Delta is guided by the North Delta       Surrey                           304,000         378,654         436,106          490,226         595,857
Area Plan. This plan was adopted in June 1995, and was updated in January 1999.                  Whalley                        70,100          74,300          82,000              NA          114,000
Surrey does not have a current Area Plan for the north portion of the municipality (in           Guildford                      42,600          49,100          56,000              NA           78,000
which the SFPR corridor is located) but relevant information is contained in the Surrey
Official Community Plan, adopted October, 1996. This plan has subsequently been               Notes:   Delta and Surrey figures refer to the Local Health Units as this is the boundary BC Stats uses for
amended on several occasions, including a revised designation of land uses as of late                  local area population projections. Health Unit boundaries match municipal boundaries except the
                                                                                                       Surrey figures include White Rock. The neighbourhood of Whalley is located in the northwest,
1999.                                                                                                  and Guildford in the north and northeast.

An Official Community Plan is intended to provide information on the amount, type and         Sources: Surrey Official Community Plan, Appendix A, p. AA-4
density of residential development required to meet anticipated population growth. The                 North Delta Area Plan, Population Growth, p. 209
Greater Vancouver Regional District’s Livable Region Strategic Plan establishes the goals              BC Local Health Area Population Estimates, BC Stats, February 1999
and objectives for housing, population and employment. These documents have provided
the background and the regional context within which the population projections have
been made.                                                                                    •   Delta

Both North Delta and Surrey have witnessed substantial population growth - and resulting      The population objective of North Delta - as stated in the North Delta Area Plan Objective
land development - over the last decade. However, the next two decades are likely to be       M - is to maintain the character of North Delta while accommodating some of the
significantly different for Delta and Surrey. Delta is planning for very modest growth (at    regional growth and the local demand of alternative housing styles. An extension of this
least through to 2011) while Surrey is anticipating significant growth. Population            objective - Policy M.1 - is to permit moderate population growth.
forecasts are as follows:
                                                                                              As noted in the table above, population growth in Delta is forecast to be modest over the
                                                                                              planning horizon - increasing 14% from 99,000 in 1996 to 113,000 on 2021. However, in
                                                                                              North Delta an actual decline is anticipated between 2001 and 2011 (forecasts did not
                                                                                              look beyond 2011). The plan does not make reference to the neighbourhoods of Sunbury
                                                                                              and/or Annieville in accommodating any of the population growth. This reflects their
                                                                                              status as mature, built up areas offering primarily in-fill opportunities.

                                                                                              •   Surrey

                                                                                              Surrey’s OCP reports an anticipated population of 596,000 by 2021 - an increase of 77%
                                                                                              from 1996. The communities of Whalley and Guildford are both forecast to increase -
                                                                                              Whalley to 114,000 (an 63% increase) and Guildford to 78,000 (an 83% increase). A
                                                                                              large portion of Whalley and a much lesser portion of Guildford are contained within
                                                                                              Surrey’s Urban Growth Concept Plan and designated as Urban Infill Area. This area is
                                                                                              south of the SFPR corridor.

South Fraser Perimeter Road                 25            Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                         26               Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                              Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                         Economic Planning Group
4.0 LAND USE                                                                                       Land uses have been described by type from west to east along the corridor. Route
                                                                                                   segments have been described by neighbourhood. These neighbourhoods are those
                                                                                                   commonly referred to by the municipalities although their precise boundaries are
                                                                                                   somewhat vague. For analytical and reference purposes we have defined boundaries as
4.1       DESCRIPTION                                                                              described below.
Land use refers to the kinds of development that have occurred or been designated on the
land within the study area. Land uses typically include the following categories:                  Table 4-1
                                                                                                   Neighbourhood Descriptions
      −   Residential
      −   Commercial                                                                               Neighbourhood                   Description
      −   Industrial
      −   Institutional                                                                            Delta
      −   Parks/Recreation Areas                                                                   Sunbury                         Nordel Way to Nelson View (adjacent to Devon Gardens
      −   Environmentally Sensitive Areas/Conservation                                                                             Park, near Brooke Road)
      −   Agriculture
                                                                                                   Annieville                      Nelson View cul de sac to Delta-Surrey border.
Municipal governments assign one of these designations (or modifications) to all property
within their boundaries. The following information is descriptive of the land uses along
the route alignment corridor from west to east. Separate descriptions are prepared for             Surrey
Delta and Surrey. (It is noted that the Fraser River Port Authority manages all of the             Royal Heights                   Delta-Surrey border to Scott Road and River Road
Fraser River shoreline along the corridor.)
                                                                                                   South Westminster               Delta-Surrey border to King George Highway

•     Delta                                                                                        Brownsville                     Tannery Road to Pattullo Bridge

Single-family housing and industrial activities predominate in the alignment corridor in           Bridgeview                      Pattullo Bridge to 132 St.
North Delta. These two land uses are separated by the Burlington Northern rail line along
the river bank. On the water side of the rail line, are the marine industrial activities located   Bolivar                         132 St. to 140 St.
at Gunderson Slough. Gunderson Slough is an active harbour for commercial fish boats.
The point of land forming the slough contains Acorn Forest Products plus a number of               Port Mann                       140 St. to Port Mann Bridge
marine commercial businesses.
                                                                                                   Fraser Heights                  Port Mann Bridge to 176 St. (Highway 15)

•     Surrey                                                                                       Port Kells                      176 St. to Surrey eastern border
                                                                                                   Source: North Delta Area Plan map and Surrey Official Community Plan
Industrial land uses predominate in the SFPR corridor based primarily on CN Railway
tracks and yards. This industrial designation encompasses the SFPR alignment corridor              Notes:
throughout its length with pockets of residential land use adjoining the corridor on the           1. The two Delta neighbourhoods referenced above are an amalgam of smaller neighbourhoods as defined
                                                                                                       in the North Delta Are Plan (p. 51). Our Sunbury area is comprised of Sunbury and Terrace, while our
south. Residential land designated as “urban” is located in the neighbourhoods of                      Annieville area includes Collings, Devon, Norum, and Annieville.
Bridgeview and Port Mann. “Suburban” land abuts and straddles the corridor in Fraser
Heights.                                                                                           2.   Surrey neighbourhoods are located within the two larger communities of Whalley (Royal Heights
                                                                                                        South Westminster, Brownsville, Bridgeview and Bolivar) and Guildford (Port Mann, Fraser Heights
                                                                                                        and Port Kells).

South Fraser Perimeter Road                   27             Socio-Community Impact Assessment     South Fraser Perimeter Road                       28               Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                 Economic Planning Group      Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                       Economic Planning Group
                                                                                                    Neighbourhood                           Description
4.2      RESIDENTIAL LAND USE                                                                                                               South of River Road
                                                                                                                                            Area adjacent to River Road is removed from the
                                                                                                                                            proposed alignment through much of Annieville. Three
•     Description                                                                                                                           homes are located south of the corridor just west of the
                                                                                                                                            Surrey border.
The Delta Census Tract (CT 163.04) contains 1,700 private dwellings. The area includes
the mature residential neighbourhoods of Sunbury and Annieville. The Surrey census tract            • Surrey
(CT 192) - including the neighbourhoods of Royal Heights, South Westminster,                        Royal Heights                North of River Road
Bridgeview, Bolivar and Port Mann - contains 1,455 homes. The Fraser Heights                        Delta-Surrey border to Scott River Road forms the north and west border of Royal
neighbourhood contains several hundred additional homes in the vicinity of the SFPR                 Road                         Heights.
alignment. Following in Table 4-2 are descriptions of the existing residential properties
adjacent to the route, from west to east.                                                                                                   South of River Road
                                                                                                                                            From the Surrey border to Grace Road there are three
Individual inventory descriptions have been provided on either side of the existing River                                                   homes.
Road/Industrial Road/116 Avenue corridor. Even though the alignment follows the arc of
the Fraser River, we have referred to the development on either side as “north of” or               South Westminster      North of River Road/South Fraser Way
“south of” the alignment corridor. North represents the water side and south the land               Delta to King George No homes.
side.                                                                                               Highway (Tannery Road)
                                                                                                                           South of River Road/South Fraser Way
                                                                                                                           No homes.
Table 4-2
Residential Development Description                                                                 Brownsville                             North of South Fraser Way
                                                                                                    Tannery Road to Pattullo Br.            No homes.
Neighbourhood                           Description
                                                                                                                                            South of South Fraser Way
• Delta                                                                                                                                     No homes.
Sunbury                                 North of River Road
Nordel Way to Nelson View               From Nordel Way to the extension of Centre Street there     Bridgeview                              North of Industrial Road
                                        are no homes. From the Centre Street area (St. Mungo        Pattullo Bridge to 132 St.              Several older homes between Pattullo Bridge and 124th
                                        Cannery Site) to the Glenrose Cannery there are 15                                                  Street.
                                        homes situated between River Road and the railway.
                                        From the Glenrose Cannery east to Nelson View are a                                                 South of Industrial Road
                                        further 31 homes north of River Road.                                                               Several older homes between Pattullo Bridge and 124th
                                        South of River Road
                                        Full development along River Road except area of            Bolivar                                 North of 116th Avenue
                                        Sunbury Ravine.                                             132 St. to 140 St.                      A few homes.

Annieville                North of River Road                                                                                               South of 116th Avenue
Nelson View cul de sac to Nelson View, Collings Way and Norum Road are cul de                                                               No homes.
Delta-Surrey border.      sacs and crescents built on benches accessed off River
                          Road, and located between River Road and the railway.
                                                                                                    Port Mann                               North of 116th Avenue
                                                                                                    140 St. to Port Mann Bridge             No homes.

South Fraser Perimeter Road                       29            Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                       30            Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                    Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                    Economic Planning Group
Neighbourhood                           Description                                                4.3       COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND USE

                                        South of 116th Avenue
                                        Several houses east on Kings Road at 115A Ave.             •     Description

Fraser Heights                          North of Proposed Alignment                                The foreshore area of the Fraser River developed early in the century based on forestry
Port Mann Bridge to 176 St.             No homes.                                                  and fishing. This resource development created a need for improved transportation which
                                                                                                   lead to railway construction. The Burlington Northern and Canadian National railways
                                        South of Proposed Alignment                                traverse the study area throughout its length, generally following the south shore of the
                                        Several homes located on the proposed alignment and        Fraser River.
                                        dozens of homes situated on the slopes above the
                                        alignment.                                                 The Fraser River foreshore is heavily industrialized throughout much of the SFPR length.
                                                                                                   The key industrial developments - from west to east - are as follows:
Port Kells                              A few homes along 176th Street.
176 St. to Surrey border                                                                                 Development                         Activity

                                                                                                         −   Fraser Port                     Shipping, freight-forwarding, sawmilling
•   Impacts of the SFPR on Residential Neighbourhoods                                                    −   Nordel                          Cedar mills, fish plants
                                                                                                         −   Gunderson Slough                Fish boat docks, harbour activity, sawmilling
Pockets of residential development exist along the alignment in the Sunbury area of Delta                −   Surrey-Fraser Docks             Shipping, container/lumber storage, freight
east of the Alex Fraser Bridge, in the area east of the Port Mann Bridge, and in Fraser                                                      forwarding
Heights. The alignment will be very disruptive to the homes north of River Road,                         − South Westminster                 Saw milling, building material plants
requiring numerous complete property acquisitions and several partial acquisitions.                      − Thornton Yards                    CN Rail yards
However, it does preserve River Road as a contiguous frontage road.                                      − CN Intermodal                     Freight transfer terminal between trains and trucks

In the Industrial Road/116 Street area of Surrey, the alignment will require acquisition of
all properties between the King George Highway and 126A Street, south of the current               The upland areas contain commercial developments including retail, auto wrecking,
road. In Fraser Heights several properties will need to be acquired, but this is confined          lumber products and building products/services. The following descriptions in Table 4-3
primarily to the Salisbury Drive/Tilbury Place area.                                               relate to commercial and industrial developments, by neighbourhood, from west to east.

Although the existing 176th Street will be connected to Abbey Drive and 100th Avenue,              Table 4-3
access for the residential community to the west of the SFPR is impacted. This                     Commercial Development Description
community also becomes separated from the residential community to the east of the
SFPR. With the potential for additional development in the adjacent area, particularly east        Neighbourhood                           Description
of 176th Street, access needs appropriate to that development requires further study and
public input. Hence, changes in local neighbourhood circulation and neighbourhood
                                                                                                   • Delta
access, although recognized during Preliminary Design, have not been resolved and
                                                                                                   Sunbury                                 North of River Road
remain as outstanding issues to be reconciled during subsequent project phases.
                                                                                                   Nordel Way to Nelson View               Delta Cedar is located just west of the Alex Fraser
                                                                                                                                           Bridge and Bella Coola Fisheries is west of the cedar
On the positive side, the alignment will significantly reduce the use of neighbourhood
                                                                                                                                           mill. The Glenrose Cannery is at the foot of Sunbury
streets by commercial vehicles. The planned connections should provide access to the
SFPR from the neighbourhoods along the route.                                                                                              There is a steel BC Hydro transmission tower on the
                                                                                                                                           slopes just west of Nelson View cul de sac.

South Fraser Perimeter Road                       31           Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                       32            Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                   Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                    Economic Planning Group
Neighbourhood                           Description                                                  Neighbourhood                           Description
                                                                                                     Bolivar                                 North of 116th Avenue
                                        South of River Road                                          132 St. to 140 St.                      Thornton Yard (CN Rail) and Kings Centre Business
                                        Sunbury Cedar and Delta Cedar Products are located on                                                Park.
                                        either side of Nordel Way at the intersection with River
                                        Road.                                                                                                South of 116th Avenue
                                        The South Side Pub and the PetroCan gas station are                                                  Several businesses including Keystone Forest Products,
                                        located on either side of the railway tracks, just east of                                           Pattullo Bridge Industrial Park, and Town and Country
                                        the Alex Fraser Bridge.                                                                              Propane.

Annieville:               Gunderson Slough contains Acorn Forest Products and                        Port Mann                               North of King Road
Nelson View cul de sac to Rivtow Marine on the peninsula, plus numerous small                        140 St. to Port Mann Bridge             Old BC Hydro station at 14300 King Road
Delta-Surrey border.      marine commercial businesses at the head of the slough.
                                                                                                                                             South of King Road
• Surrey                                                                                                                                     No commercial development.
Royal Heights                North of River Road
Delta-Surrey border to Scott River Road is the north boundary of Royal Heights.                      Fraser Heights              North of Proposed Alignment
Road                                                                                                 Port Mann Bridge to 176 St. CN Intermodal yard.
                             South of River Road                                                     (Highway 15)
                             No businesses.                                                                                      South of Proposed Alignment
                                                                                                                                 No commercial development.
South Westminster         North of South Fraser Way
Scott Road to King George Surrey Fraser Docks and CN Rail plus several                               Port Kells                              Windsor Plywood at 176 Street at 104 Avenue.
Highway                   commercial businesses along Timberland Road.                               176 St. to Surrey border
                                        South of South Fraser Way
                                        BC Transit bus storage and United Auto Wreckers west
                                                                                                     •   Impacts of the SFPR on Commercial and Industrial Activity
                                        of Tannery Road.

Brownsville                             North of South Fraser Way                                    Concentrations of industrial and commercial development occur throughout much of the
Tannery Road to Pattullo Br.            Several commercial businesses including Synkoloid            SFPR alignment. The key highway development issues from a commercial perspective
                                        Company and businesses along Timberland Road.                are access and visibility. The proposed alignment maintains access to virtually all
                                                                                                     properties by frontage roads accessed at intersections. Although direct access to the SFPR
                                        South of South Fraser Way                                    is not permitted, improved traffic flow and improved visibility are positive features of the
                                        Several businesses including Allied Auto Parts and           route.
                                        North Coast Forest Products.
                                                                                                     Another key benefit is the improved opportunity to develop undeveloped commercial land
Bridgeview                              North of Industrial Road                                     bordering the alignment, particularly in the South Westminster and Bridgeview areas. As
Pattullo Bridge to 132 St.              Numerous small commercial operations, plus large             indicated by the Project Justification Report, the existence of the SFPR will be
                                        businesses including Georgia-Pacific Gyproc , Mill and       instrumental in developing up to 900 ha of industrial land in Surrey.
                                        Timber Products, and Interfor.

                                        South of Industrial Road
                                        A few small commercial businesses plus Mill and
                                        Timber Products head office and lumber storage.

South Fraser Perimeter Road                       33             Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                       34           Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                     Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                   Economic Planning Group
                                                                                             Table 4-4
                                                                                             Schools Catchment Areas
Institutional developments refer to schools, churches and community halls. Several of
these facilities are located in the study area.                                              School                             Enrollment        Catchment Area along SFPR Corridor

4.4.1    Schools                                                                             • Delta:
                                                                                             Elementary (K -7)
Major roads, and particularly highways, are used as school catchment area boundaries.        − Brooke                                392          Nordel Way to McAdam Ravine
They are used as such to minimize the need for school children to cross busy roads. The      − Devon Gardens                         351          McAdam Ravine to Norum Ravine
SFPR transits numerous school catchment areas, however, the location of the route next to    − Annieville                            321          Norum Ravine to Delta-Surrey border
the railway and the Fraser River limits the number of homes on the north side of the         Secondary (8 - 10)
alignment.                                                                                   − Sands Junior                          566          Nordel Way to McAdam Ravine
                                                                                             − Delview Junior                        583          McAdam Ravine to Delta-Surrey border
                                                                                             Senior Secondary (11 - 12)
•     Delta
                                                                                             − North Delta                           1337         Nordel Way to Delta-Surrey border
Catchment areas of three elementary schools and three secondary schools bisect the Delta
portion of the SFPR alignment. However, once the alignment is built, it is expected there    • Surrey:
                                                                                             Elementary (K-7)
will be no houses north of the alignment.
                                                                                             − Royal Heights                         297          Delta/Surrey border to south of Tannery
                                                                                             − Prince Charles                        460          Royal Heights to Old Yale Rd.
•     Surrey                                                                                 − Bridgeview                            205          Old Yale Rd. to 138 St.
                                                                                             − James Ardiel                          571          138 St. to Bon Accord Creek
The SFPR cuts through the northern edge of eleven elementary school catchment areas          − Ellendale                             215          Bon Accord Creek to Highway 1
and four secondary school catchment areas. Given the location of the alignment parallel      − Dogwood                               367          Highway 1 to 156A St.
to the railway track and the Fraser River, the vast majority of homes are south of the       − Erma Stephenson                       378          156A St. to 164 St.
proposed SFPR. However, some residences will be on the north side of the alignment,          − Fraser Wood                           463          164 St. to Wallace Close
specifically in the South Westminster and Bridgeview areas. These areas will have access     − Bothwell                              261          Wallace Close to 184 St.
via the proposed intersections.                                                              − Port Kells                            134          184 St. to Delta/Langley border
                                                                                             − Anniedale Traditional                 113          Highway 1 at the 176 St. Interchange
Following in Table 4-4 are descriptions of the schools, student enrollment, and their        Secondary (8 - 12)
catchment areas, in the area of the alignment. Locations of the institutions are shown in    − LA Matheson                           1304         Delta/Surrey border to Old Yale Rd.
Figure 3.                                                                                    − Len Shepherd                           288         Old Yale Rd. to 116A Ave. at Bon
                                                                                                                                                  Accord Creek
                                                                                             − Guildford                             1304         Bon Accord Creek to Highway 1
                                                                                             − Fraser Heights                         743         Highway 1 to 184 St.

                                                                                             Sources: Delta School District and Surrey School District

South Fraser Perimeter Road                35            Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                        36           Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                             Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                                    Economic Planning Group
4.4.2   Other Institutions
                                                                                                4.5      FUTURE OUTLOOK
•   Delta                                                                                       Significantly different futures are anticipated for North Delta and Surrey. North Delta is
                                                                                                expected to remain a residential area with predominantly single-family housing and
The Sunbury Community Hall is located at the corner of Centre Street and Dunlop Road            neighbourhood commercial development. Very moderate population increases are
about two blocks up Centre Street from the SFPR alignment. North Delta Cemetery is              anticipated.
located south of Brooke Elementary School, at the corner of Brooke Road and Dunlop
Road. Trinity Lutheran Church is located North of River Road between 90th Avenue and            Surrey, on the other hand, is anticipating and planning for large population increases and
92A Avenue.                                                                                     related commercial and residential development. Considerable changes are expected in
                                                                                                land uses with more intensive use of existing commercial lands.

•   Surrey                                                                                      The following are descriptions of the likely future profiles for the SFPR corridor in Delta
                                                                                                and Surrey. This information has been derived from the official community plans for the
The Bridgeview Community Hall is located at 116 Avenue and 126 Street. Islamic Iqra             areas and information published on the municipal web sites. It is noted that the forecast
School (private) is located near Invegarry Park, immediately south of 116A Avenue. The          time horizons for these plans are five to ten years, although the visioning or desired future
Korean Centre Presbyterian Church is located on 176 Street just north of the Highway            information has a longer time frame.
1/15 Interchange. The Surrey Firehall No. 5 is located on the east side of 176 Street just
north of the Highway 1/15 Interchange.
                                                                                                •     Delta

4.4.3   Impacts of the SFPR on Institutions                                                     The North Delta Area Plan indicates that growth is expected to be minor over the next
                                                                                                decade and the area will remain predominantly single-family residential oriented.
Main roads and highways are typically used as school catchment boundaries. There are            Concentrations of development in a neighbourhood centre is anticipated which would
virtually no homes located north of the alignment (or will be when the route is built).         include commercial, recreation and social activity.
Students in homes that are north of the alignment will be able to access schools via the
intersection connections.                                                                       The entire Delta study area corridor is designated either single family residential (SFR),
                                                                                                industrial (I), or is classed as environmentally sensitive (ESA2) and is not slated for
The one school that could be impacted is the Anniedale Traditional School, immediately          development. Future development of the SFPR corridor lands (south of the railway line)
south of Highway 1 at 176 Street. This school became a traditional school with the              would involve in-fill of single-family housing as no increase in density is proposed. The
opening of Bothwell School in Fraser Heights in 1998. As a traditional school, it draws         Nordel area (84 Avenue and 112 Street) is intended to be the focus of community
from the entire municipality and does not have a specific catchment area. It includes           facilities and be the “social heart” of North Delta.
kindergarten to grade 6, and has just over 100 students. Until early 2000, vehicles
accessed the school directly from 176 Street, both from the north and south. This access        The lands north of the railway and Gunderson Slough will remain industrial. These areas
has since been closed (except for emergency vehicles), and access to the school is now          will be protected for water dependent industrial uses. These uses are likely to continue to
through the residential neighbourhood via 96 Avenue to 179 Street, to 97 Avenue, to             include commercial fishing plus port and lumber activities. The Fraser River Estuary
177A Street, and into the back of the property. The SFPR should not affect this access          Management Program (FREMP) has classified the shoreline as either small craft harbour
but it will generate more traffic in the vicinity of the school.                                (S), port (P), or conservation (C). The small craft harbour shoreline runs from the
                                                                                                extensions of Centre Street to Brooke Street, and at the end of the slough. The port
The other public facility directly impacted is the No. 5 Firehall on 176 Street in Surrey.      designation is on the land on the outside of Gunderson Slough point while the
This building is relatively new (built in the early 1990s), and was built to service the Port   conservation land is at the entrance to the slough.
Kells industrial area and residential neighbourhoods. The proposed alignment cuts
through this site and will require it to be relocated.                                          A total of eight EAS2 sites are listed in North Delta’s Future Land Use Plan map. These
                                                                                                are the ravines channelling water from the bench land to the Fraser River. Although most

South Fraser Perimeter Road                  37            Socio-Community Impact Assessment    South Fraser Perimeter Road                  38            Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                               Economic Planning Group     Planning and Preliminary Design Study                               Economic Planning Group
are privately owned, their environmental designation will likely insure their protection as   within established areas, new urban neighbourhoods, and redevelopment of older
natural areas.                                                                                residential areas.

Declines in school enrollment have occurred throughout the 1990s and are expected to          This large increase in population is expected to drive dramatic increases in employment.
continue through the next decade. These gradual but continuous declines may result in         Total employment in the municipality is anticipated to increase from 88,000 in 1996 to
selected school closures over the next decade.                                                142,000 by 2006, and 235,000 by 2021. These figures represent an average increase of
                                                                                              6,000 jobs per year, of which an increasing proportion will be filled by persons who
Although not in the SFPR study area it is noteworthy that the Corporation of Delta is         reside in Surrey.
conducting a River Road East Strategic Plan. This plan area covers over 700 ha of largely
industrially zoned land stretching west from Nordel to Tilbury Island. The plan is            Developed industrial land is expected to double from 1,440 ha in 1996 to 3,000 ha by
expected to produce a development strategy for this area. The study is expected to be         2021. Approximately half of Surrey’s industrially designated land is situated along the
completed later in 2001.                                                                      Fraser River corridor from the Delta border to Port Kells. Commercial development will
                                                                                              be focused in the Town Centres, of which Surrey Centre and Guildford are number one
                                                                                              and number three in size, respectively. The amount of commercial floor space (office and
•   Surrey                                                                                    retail) is expected to more than double by 2021.

Surrey’s Official Community Plan outlines the policies and procedures to manage growth        The single most significant commercial development in the near term is expected to be the
in population, as well as related commercial and residential development. The main goals      Pacific National Exhibition relocation. This relocation is tentatively planned for a site
of the plan are to manage growth for orderly economic development; create complete            adjoining the SFPR between Tannery Road and Robson Road. At the time of writing, the
communities; create jobs for residents; and provide opportunities for a variety of business   actual completion of the sale and the timing of the relocation were unknown.
activities. The SFPR corridor is located almost entirely within the industrial land use
designation. In Whalley there is some urban designated land, and in Guildford some
suburban land - both abutting, and to the south of, the alignment.                            •   Implications of the SFPR on Municipal Growth

Surrey will be attempting to focus growth in compact urban areas while strengthening the      Generally, highway developments facilitate community economic development. The
city’s nodal development pattern. All of this development will be south of the proposed       SFPR will improve access to and from most of the commercial and industrial sites along
SFPR alignment, with the closest nodes being Surrey Centre and Guildford. The GVRD’s          the route. It will also facilitate improved traffic flow through the area.
Livable Region Strategy concentrates development in the northwest sector of the
municipality. The northern boundary of this zone abuts the industrially designated land       The SFPR will ease current traffic congestions through Annieville and Sunbury on River
which contains the proposed SFPR alignment.                                                   Road. Given Surrey’s more aggressive growth plan, traffic improvements provided by the
                                                                                              SFPR should act as a catalyst for commercial development, particularly in the South
Foreshore designations indicate the kinds of marine use that currently occurs and will        Westminster area.
likely continue. These categories include: port in South Westminster, industrial in
Bridgeview, log storage in Port Mann and Fraser Heights, and conservation around Surrey

To achieve the objectives of the OCP, Surrey is planning for an average annual population
increase or 10,000 to 12,000 requiring between 4,000 and 4,500 new housing units. This
growth forecast is expected to hold for the next twenty years (until 2021). By this
planning horizon, Whalley will have increased from 22,000 dwelling units to 48,000, and
Guildford from 11,400 to 31,000.

Most of Surrey’s future housing will be on land designated as urban - allowing single
family housing, duplexes and townhouses. Development will include infill of vacant land

South Fraser Perimeter Road                 39            Socio-Community Impact Assessment   South Fraser Perimeter Road                40            Socio-Community Impact Assessment
Planning and Preliminary Design Study                              Economic Planning Group    Planning and Preliminary Design Study                             Economic Planning Group