General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025 by fgy93073

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									General Aviation      Federal Aviation
                      Administration

Forecast Overview
2008-2025




Presented to: MWCOG
By: Roger Schaufele
Date: 09 April 2008
Agenda
•    Background
•    Historic National Trends
•    Forecast Overview
•    DC Area Trends and Forecast




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Background
• What do we forecast?
           •    Airline traffic and capacity
           •    General Aviation activity
           •    Aircraft operations
           •    Done at both national and individual airport level


• What are the forecasts used for?
           •    Facility Planning
           •    ATC Staffing
           •    Regulatory analysis
           •    FAA Budgets
           •    Investment Analysis
           •    Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans


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09 April 2008                                                Administration
General Aviation Trends 2000-07
• Modest growth in fleet and hours
    – Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C)
           • Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat
    – Hours up 3.1%
           • Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down 13.3%
• Activity down
    – Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9%
    – Instrument Ops down 19.5%
    – En Route A/C Handled down 5.1%
• Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003
    – Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62%
    – Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%

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09 April 2008                                           Administration
GA Forecast Overview 2008-25
• Growth in high end of market
    – Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase)
           • Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year)
           • Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year)
                – Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year)
                – VLJs total 8,145 by 2025
    – Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year)
           • Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year
           • Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year
    – Operations growth reflects hours growth
           • Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year)
           • En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)



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09 April 2008                                                   Administration
     General Aviation Fleet
                             300,000
                                               Actual     Forecast

                             250,000
           No. Of Aircraft



                             200,000

                             150,000

                             100,000

                              50,000

                                  0
                                        2000     2005            2010          2015        2020          2025

                                                                 Fiscal Year
2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth
Piston:                          0.5%                   Piston       Turbine   Exp, LSA, Oth
Turbine:                         3.7%
Exp, LSA, Oth:                   3.0%


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     09 April 2008                                                                    Administration
     General Aviation Flight Hours
                               50,000
                                                  Actual    Forecast
                               45,000
          Flight Hours (000)


                               40,000
                               35,000
                               30,000
                               25,000
                               20,000
                               15,000
                               10,000
                                5,000
                                    0
                                        2000       2005            2010      2015        2020          2025
2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth
                                                                   Fiscal Year
Piston:                            1.1%
Exp, LSA, Oth:                     4.1%        Piston      Exp, LSA, Oth   Non VLJ Turbine      VLJs
Non VLJ Turbine:                   2.8%
VLJs:                              28.4%



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     09 April 2008                                                                  Administration
      Tower Operations
                                   90,000
                                                     Actual   Forecast
                                   80,000
                Operations (000)

                                   70,000
                                   60,000
                                   50,000
                                   40,000
                                   30,000
                                   20,000
                                   10,000
                                        0
                                             2000   2005         2010        2015         2020          2025

                                                                 Fiscal Year
                                                     Commercial      Gen Aviation   Military
2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth
Commercial:                           2.7%
Gen Aviation:                         1.3%
Military:                             0.0%

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      09 April 2008                                                                  Administration
                DC Area Trends




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09 April 2008                    Administration
DC General Aviation Trends 2000-07
• Activity down overall
    – GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops
           • Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN
           • Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7%
• Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005
    – IAD up 112%; DCA down 95%
    – Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5%
    – DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in
      2007 (65.8% of total)




                                                      Federal Aviation   10
09 April 2008                                         Administration
     DC Area Tower Operations
             1,800,000

             1,500,000
Operations




             1,200,000

              900,000

              600,000

              300,000

                     0
                         2000   2001   2002   2003   2004     2005     2006         2007

                                       Commercial    GA     Military


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     09 April 2008                                               Administration
DC Area General Aviation Operations
             900,000
             800,000
             700,000
Operations




             600,000
             500,000
             400,000
             300,000
             200,000
             100,000
                  0
                       2000   2001     2002   2003   2004   2005    2006          2007

                                          Calendar Year
                       BWI, DCA, IAD    FDK    GAI   HEF    HGR    JYO       MTN



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09 April 2008                                                  Administration
General Aviation Biz Jet Operations
             80,000
             70,000
             60,000
Operations




             50,000
             40,000
             30,000
             20,000
             10,000
                 0
                       2000    2001    2002     2003      2004    2005        2006          2007

                                            Calendar Year
                      BWI     DCA     FDK     GAI   HEF     HGR     IAD        JYO          MTN



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09 April 2008                                                            Administration
DC Area Tower Forecast 2008-25
• Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth)
    – Slightly higher than national growth
           • Commercial growth 2.4% per year
           • GA growth of 1.5% per year
           • Exceed 2000 peak in 2014




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09 April 2008                                  Administration
         DC Area Tower Operations
                 2,400,000
                                    Actual      Forecast
                 2,100,000


                 1,800,000
    Operations




                 1,500,000


                 1,200,000


                  900,000


                  600,000


                  300,000


                        0
                             2000   2005         2010           2015          2020            2025

2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth                   Commercial    GA   Military
Commercial:                  2.4%
General Aviation:            1.5%
Military:                    0.0%


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         09 April 2008                                                     Administration
Things to look for
• Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007?
• Environmental concerns will continue to be in
  the forefront of aviation debates.
• Strength of demand given high oil prices and a
  slowing economy.
• Success of on-demand air taxi operators and
  use of VLJs.




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09 April 2008                     Administration

								
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