Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, by fzw45252

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									Latino Profile of Los Angeles City
 and County, California, and the
          United States
Prepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of
         Southwest Voter Registration Education Project
        by the William C. Velasquez Institute Presentation
                        Antonio Gonzalez
                            President
 William C. Velasquez Institute and Southwest Voter Registration
                        Education Project
                           2914 N. Main St
                       Los Angeles, CA 91723
                     Phone: 323-222-2217 (WCVI)
                    Phone: 323-343-9299 (SVREP)
                      Email: agonzalez@wcvi.org
                     Email: agonzalez@svrep.org
Los Angeles City and County
    Detailed Information
Los Angeles County – Population
   by Majority Race/Ethnicity
Los Angeles County – Latino
  Registration Percentage
Los Angeles City – Population by
     Majority Race/Ethnicity
Los Angeles City – Latino
 Registration Percentage
      Registration by Los Angeles County, City, and City
                        Council District
                                    Los Angeles                 Total Reg              Latino Reg   Latino Reg
                                      Region                                                             %

                                       County                   3,948,813              1,026,189     25.99%
                                         City                   1,436,351                338,570     23.57%
                                         CD 1                       51,796                28,133     54.32%
                                         CD 2                     113,987                 17,944     15.74%
                                         CD 3                     115,949                 15,569     13.43%
                                         CD 4                     112,410                 13,080     11.64%
                                         CD 5                     152,275                  7,036      4.62%
                                         CD 6                       64,329                29,820     46.36%
                                         CD 7                       65,397                35,885     54.87%
                                         CD 8                     101,935                 18,477     18.13%
                                         CD 9                       63,868                24,269     38.00%
                                        CD 10                       85,530                17,707     20.70%
                                        CD 11                     143,155                 13,364      9.34%
                                        CD 12                     123,547                 17,618     14.26%
                                        CD 13                       70,226                24,633     35.08%
                                        CD 14                       80,990                44,649     55.13%
                                        CD 15                       90,957                30,386     33.41%

Data Source: William C. Velasquez Institute; Registration Current as of January 2008
          Selected 2001 and 2005 Election Results for Los
                Angeles City by City Council District
             2005 Mayor        2005 -           2005         2001             2001             2001           2001 City      2001         2001 City
             -                 Villaraigosa     Mayor -      Mayor -          Villaraigosa     Mayor -        Atty -         Delgadillo   Atty -
  Los        Villaraigosa      %                Hahn         Villaraigosa     %                Hahn           Delgadillo     %            Feuer
Angeles
Region
City              289,116           58.63%      203,968           264,611          46.47%        304,791        284,337          52.39%     258,428
CD 1               15,564           75.18%         5,137           16,193          73.28%           5,905         14,496         69.07%        6,490
CD 2               19,917           54.50%       16,627            17,091          45.22%          20,705         20,032         55.00%      16,390
CD 3               20,545           52.69%       18,449            16,802          37.74%          27,717         20,440         47.71%      22,401
CD 4               19,421           57.62%       14,286            20,557          51.89%          19,062         16,066         42.73%      21,529
CD 5               25,516           53.95%       21,777            24,473          45.12%          29,769         16,294         31.04%      36,201
CD 6               15,343           67.71%         7,316           23,128          45.84%          27,323         22,070         46.09%      25,811
CD 7               16,792           70.49%         7,029           17,268          66.24%           8,799         17,868         71.49%        7,127
CD 8               20,333           60.43%       13,316             9,622          24.98%          28,896         23,364         64.94%      12,615
CD 9               12,558           67.37%         6,083           10,100          45.98%          11,864         14,327         70.18%        6,087
CD 10              18,598           60.56%       12,114            12,497          37.80%          20,563         19,150         61.67%      11,902
CD 11              30,627           56.97%       23,129            23,038          43.31%          30,152         19,536         38.46%      31,262
CD 12              20,963           48.88%       21,921            16,686          32.58%          34,531         24,438         49.60%      24,836
CD 13              16,099           66.29%         8,188           18,947          63.03%          11,111         15,194         53.49%      13,211
CD 14              25,090           73.62%         8,991           23,330          71.27%           9,405         21,906         69.61%        9,565
CD 15              11,750           37.47%       19,605            14,879          43.93%          18,989         19,156         59.57%      13,001
  Data Source: Los Angeles City Clerk. Note: 2001 and 2005 City Council Districts Different. Major Differences between CD 6 (new Latino
  Seat), 2, 5, and 11. All others similar.
Upcoming Election
   Information
         Super Tuesday Latino Vote in
        Democratic Presidential Primary
                               Latino Vote by Selected State and Candidate Percentage
                                                                                             Latino
                                               Latino % of          Estimated
                         Total State                                                       Respondent
      State                                    Total State           Latino                                       Clinton %         Obama %
                        Respondents                                                       Margin of Error
                                              Respondents         Respondents**
                                                                                              %***
     Arizona                  1218                 18%                   219                   6.62%                 55%               41%
    California                1879                 29%                   545                   4.20%                 69%               29%
  Connecticut                 1178                  6%                    71                  11.63%                 43%               53%
      Illinois                1181                 17%                   201                   6.92%                 49%               50%
Massachusetts                 1365                  5%                    68                  11.86%                 56%               36%
    Nevada*                   1098                 15%                   165                   7.64%                 64%               26%
  New Jersey                  1298                 10%                   130                   8.60%                 73%               26%
  New Mexico                  1181                 34%                   402                   4.89%                 56%               36%
    New York                  1393                 12%                   167                   7.58%                 68%               30%
*Note: Nevada Results of an Entrance Poll
**Latino N Estimate Based on Percentage of Total Respondents
***Margin of Error Based on Estimated Latino Respondent Size
Original Data Source: CNN Exit Poll.
Percentages may not add up to 100% when all categories or candidates are not shown. Numbers based on preliminary exit poll results.
How the poll was conducted: The National Election Pool Exit Poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Members of the pool are ABC, AP, CBS,
CNN, Fox and NBC. The polling places are a stratified probability sample of the state. In addition, absentee and/or early voters were
interviewed in a pre-election telephone poll; results from the phone poll were combined with results from the exit poll. The combination reflects
approximately the correct proportion of absentee voters and election day voters.
Latino Vote in Democratic
   Presidential Primary
 California Total and Latino Votes Cast in 2000, 2004, and
                2008 Presidential Primaries

California Total and Latino Votes Cast in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential Primaries
                                                March 2000               March 2004            February          Total Change           Percentage
                                                 Primary                  Primary                2008             from 2004-           Change from
                                                                                               Primary*              2008               2004-2008
Total Votes Cast for Democratic                        3,272,029             3,107,629           4,259,031           1,151,402                    +37%
Presidential Candidates
Latino Votes Cast for Democratic                       556,245              498,474             1,235,119              736,645                  +148%
Presidential Candidates                            (17% of Total        (16% of Total        (29% of Total
                                                          Dem)                 Dem)                 Dem)
Total Votes Cast for Republican                        4,153,702             2,216,351           2,443,153             226,802                    +10%
Presidential Candidates
Latino Votes Cast for Republican                       332,296               127,662             317,610               189,948                  +149%
Presidential Candidates                      (8 % of Total Rep)         (5.8% of Total       (13% of Total
                                                                                 Rep)                Rep)
Data Sources: Total Votes Cast for Democrats and Republicans taken from California Secretary of State website. Latino Votes cast for President calculated
by applying various exit poll figures from CNN (2008), NY Times (2000, 2004), and WCVI (2004) to the Secretary of State totals. *2008 Total Votes Cast
current as of Monday, February 11, 2008. 2008 Latino Vote calculated from Media Exit Poll percentages applied to California Secretary of State Totals.
California Latino Voter Polling Trends for
    Democratic Presidential Primary
    California Latino Voter Polling Trends for Democratic Presidential Primary, in
    Chronological Order

    Poll (Date- Author)                                       Clinton %     Obama %



    4/13/2007 - Field Poll                                    59%           18%

    8/17/2007 - Field Poll                                    63%           14%

    10/26/07 - Field Poll                                     52%           16%

    1/13/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico                61%           19%

    1/22/2008 - Field Poll                                    59%           19%

    1/26/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico                59%           19%

    2/5/08-Exit Poll                                          69%           29%
2008 U.S. Presidential Election
     Battleground States
2008 U.S. Senate Races - Close
     Congressional Quarterly Ratings
         2004 Registration, Turnout, and Latino Potential
                                            by Close Senate Race
                                                                        2004                2004       Potential      Potential
                                      2004                              Latino    2004      Latino     Unregistered   Unregistered
                                      Total     2004        2004        Share     Latino    Share      Latino         Latino
            2004 Total   2004 Total   Turnout   Latino      Latino      of Reg    Turnout   of Total   Voters in      Voters in
State       Reg          Turnout      %         Reg         Turnout     %         %         Turnout    2004           2004 %


Colorado     2,307,000    2,097,000    90.90%    204,000     165,000       8.8%     80.9%      7.9%         157,000        43.49%


Louisiana    2,413,000    2,067,000    85.66%      19,000     16,000       0.8%     84.2%      0.8%          11,000        36.67%


Maine          824,000      736,000    89.32%       7,000      7,000       0.8%    100.0%      1.0%           2,000        22.22%


Minnesota    3,080,000    2,887,000    93.73%      53,000     49,000       1.7%     92.5%      1.7%          20,000        27.40%

New
Hampshire      716,000      677,000    94.55%       5,000      5,000       0.7%    100.0%      0.7%           4,000        44.44%

North
Carolina     4,292,000    3,639,000    84.79%      44,000     27,000       1.0%     61.4%      0.7%          65,000        59.63%

South
Dakota         425,000      378,000    88.94%       4,000      4,000       0.9%    100.0%      1.1%           2,000        33.33%



Texas        9,681,000    7,950,000    82.12%   2,170,000   1,533,000     22.4%     70.6%     19.3%       1,518,000        41.16%



TOTAL       23,738,000   20,431,000    86.07%   2,506,000   1,806,000    10.56%    72.07%     8.40%       1,779,000        41.52%
2006 U.S. House Election Results
       Party by Margin of Victory - All
2006 U.S. House Election Results
   Party by Margin of Victory – Close Elections
    Close Margins of Victory in 2006
                                            Less Than 5%

•   Democrats                                           •   Republicans
     1.    Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney - 0.0%               1.    Florida 13 - Vern Buchanan - 0.2%
     2.    Georgia 12 - John Barrow - 0.6%                   2.    North Carolina 8 - Robin Hayes - 0.2%
     3.    Pennsylvania 8 - Patrick J. Murphy - 0.6%         3.    New Mexico 1 - Heather A. Wilson - 0.4%
     4.    Georgia 8 - Jim Marshall - 1.0%                   4.    Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce - 0.5%
     5.    Florida 16 - Tim Mahoney - 1.8%                   5.    Wyoming AL - Barbara Cubin - 0.5%
     6.    Wisconsin 8 - Steve Kagen - 2.1%                  6.    Ohio 2 - Jean Schmidt - 1.1%
     7.    Kentucky 3 - John Yarmuth - 2.4%                  7.    New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson - 1.4%
     8.    New York 19 - John Hall - 2.4%                    8.    Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach - 1.4%
     9.    New Hampshire 1 - Carol Shea-Porter - 2.7%        9.    New York 25 - James T. Walsh - 1.6%
     10.   Iowa 2 - Dave Loebsack - 2.8%                     10.   Nevada 3 - Jon Porter - 1.9%
     11.   Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - 3.5%                     11.   Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave - 2.5%
     12.   Florida 22 - Ron Klein - 3.8%                     12.   Illinois 6 - Peter Roskam - 2.8%
     13.   Pennsylvania 4 - Jason Altmire - 3.8%             13.   Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake - 2.8%
     14.   Arizona 5 - Harry E. Mitchell - 4.0%              14.   New York 29 - John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. -
     15.   Indiana 9 - Baron P. Hill - 4.5%                        3.0%
                                                             15.   Washington 8 - Dave Reichert - 3.0%
                                                             16.   California 4 - John T. Doolittle - 3.1%
                                                             17.   Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays - 3.4%
                                                             18.   Michigan 7 - Tim Walberg - 3.9%
                                                             19.   New York 26 - Thomas M. Reynolds - 4.0%
                                                             20.   Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot - 4.4%
2010 Gubernatorial Elections
2010 U.S. Senate Elections
California Demographic
         Trends
       California Population Comparison by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050
60,000,000




50,000,000




40,000,000
                                                                                                                                                  TOTAL
                                                                                                                                                  ANGLO
                                                                                                                                                  HISPANIC
30,000,000                                                                                                                                        ASIAN/ PACIFIC ISLANDER
                                                                                                                                                  BLACK
                                                                                                                                                  MULTIRACE

20,000,000                                                                                                                                        AMERICAN INDIAN




10,000,000




         0
                     2000                   2010                  2020                   2030                 2040            2050


Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California
and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.
Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity
and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.
Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.
                                                                                                                              Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute
California Population Shares by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050
 60.0%




 50.0%




 40.0%
                                                                                                                                        WHI T E NON- LAT I NO SHARE
                                                                                                                                        BLACK SHARE

 30.0%                                                                                                                                  HI SP ANI C SHARE
                                                                                                                                        AP I SHARE
                                                                                                                                        AM E RI CAN I NDI AN SHARE
                                                                                                                                        M ULT I RACE SHARE
 20.0%



 10.0%



   0.0%
                   2000                2010               2020                2030              2040               2050
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California
and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.
Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity
and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.
Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.
Due to aggregation of Hispanic figures, percentages do not equal 100%.                                                        Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute
                         Growth of Total California Population by Ethnic Group, (2000-2050)
 20, 000, 000




 15, 000, 000




 10, 000, 000                                                                                                                                                               2040-2050

                                                                                                                                                                            2030-2040

                                                                                                                                                                            2020-2030

                                                                                                                                                                            2010-2020

  5, 000, 000                                                                                                                                                               2000-2010




               0


                         LA T I N O         A SI A N / P A C I FI C B LA C K GR OWT H          AM E RI CAN             M U LT I R A C E      WH I T E GR OWT H
                         GR OWT H               I SLA N D E R                                    I NDI AN                GR OWT H
                                                  GR OWT H                                      GR OWT H
 - 5, 000, 000


Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California
and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.
Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity
and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.
Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.
                                                                                                                                          Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute
     Composition of Total population of California by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050, May 2004

    80. 0%


    70. 0%



    60. 0%


    50. 0%



    40. 0%


    30. 0%



    20. 0%



    10. 0%


      0. 0%
                          2000                         2010                         2020                       2030             2040                         2050


                                                                              M I N OR I T Y    WH I T E / M U LT I R A C E


Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California
and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.
Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity
and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.
Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.
                                                                                                                              Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute
  California Total and Latino Registration
Comparison by Assembly District 2004-2007
  Select National Latino
Demographic and Election
       Information
                        Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Total


                                        NL        Hispanic or
                                                                  Latino     Combined       Combined
 Geographic Area        NL White       White        Latino                                                    TOTAL
                                                                    %         Minority      Minority %
                                        %           Origin


United States          202,266,112     66.43%      45,018,772     14.79%     102,213,011        33.57%     304,479,123
.California             16,327,354     43.64%      13,261,796     35.45%      21,086,660        56.36%       37,414,014
.Texas                  11,548,254     48.53%       8,438,918     35.46%      12,247,073        51.47%       23,795,327
.Florida                11,250,590     61.37%       3,689,256     20.12%       7,081,594        38.63%       18,332,184
.New York               11,834,704     60.35%       3,214,581     16.39%       7,776,499        39.65%       19,611,203
.Illinois                 8,484,786    65.35%       1,904,819     14.67%       4,497,905        34.65%       12,982,691
.Arizona                  3,751,781    59.80%       1,825,481     29.10%       2,521,603        40.20%        6,273,384
.New Jersey               5,528,714    62.51%       1,388,767     15.70%       3,315,326        37.49%        8,844,040
.Colorado                 3,475,201    71.70%         950,895     19.62%       1,371,417        28.30%        4,846,618
.New Mexico                857,001     43.11%         870,007     43.76%       1,131,157        56.89%        1,988,158
.Georgia                  5,598,308    59.07%         713,829       7.53%      3,878,965        40.93%        9,477,273

  Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United
  States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date:
  May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups
  adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
                               Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population
                                                      Percent
                                                    Hispanic or
                                       NL White                                   Combined        Combined
 Geographic Area         NL White                     Latino        Latino %                                       TOTAL
                                          %                                        Minority       Minority %
                                                      Origin

United States           202,266,112      66.43%      45,018,772       14.79%      102,213,011         33.57%     304,479,123
.New Mexico                 857,001      43.11%          870,007      43.76%        1,131,157         56.89%       1,988,158
.Texas                   11,548,254      48.53%        8,438,918      35.46%       12,247,073         51.47%      23,795,327
.California              16,327,354      43.64%      13,261,796       35.45%       21,086,660         56.36%      37,414,014
.Arizona                  3,751,781      59.80%        1,825,481      29.10%        2,521,603         40.20%       6,273,384
.Nevada                   1,516,134      59.11%          620,385      24.19%        1,048,724         40.89%       2,564,858
.Florida                 11,250,590      61.37%        3,689,256      20.12%        7,081,594         38.63%      18,332,184
.Colorado                 3,475,201      71.70%          950,895      19.62%        1,371,417         28.30%       4,846,618
.New York                11,834,704      60.35%        3,214,581      16.39%        7,776,499         39.65%      19,611,203
.New Jersey               5,528,714      62.51%        1,388,767      15.70%        3,315,326         37.49%       8,844,040
.Illinois                 8,484,786      65.35%        1,904,819      14.67%        4,497,905         34.65%      12,982,691




    Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United
    States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date:
    May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups
    adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
                        2006 United States Latino Population by State




Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the
United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May
17, 2007.
                 2006 United States Latino Population Percent by State




Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the
United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May
17, 2007.
    2004 United States Latino Unregistered Citizen Voting Age
                       Population by State




Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to
1972.
      2004 United States Latino Registration Percent by State




Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to
1972.
                                           Latino Voter Registration,
                                      National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
                                                   Projection


           12,000,000
           10,000,000
            8,000,000
            6,000,000
            4,000,000
            2,000,000
                        0
           -2,000,000
                            1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

                                         Latino VR          Latino VR Change

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
                                        Latino Votes Cast,
                               National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
                                            Projection
       10,000,000

        8,000,000

        6,000,000

        4,000,000

        2,000,000

                    0

       -2,000,000
                        1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

                                       Latino VC           Latino VC Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
        Latino Elected Officials by State:
              Largest Latino States – Gains Since 1996
   State                        1996                          2007                         Change
   Texas                                           1,687                         2,170              +28.6%
   California                                         693                        1,163              +67.8%
   New Mexico                                         623                           657              +5.5%
   Arizona                                            298                           354             +18.8%
   Colorado                                           161                           160               -0.6%
   Florida                                              72                          131             +81.9%
   New Jersey                                           33                          103             +212.1%
   Illinois                                             41                            97            +136.5%
   New York                                             40                            64              +60%
   Other States                                         95                          230             +142.1%
   TOTAL                                           3,786                         5,129                +37%
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by Level of
          Office in 2007

                     Federal: 26

                Statewide Officials: 6

               State Legislators: 238

                County Officials: 512

              Municipal Officials: 1,640

       Judicial/Law Enforcement Officials: 685

       School Board/Education Officials: 1,847

            Special District Officials: 175
                        Latino Elected Officials by State:
                              Largest Latino States




Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by State: New Latino Gains Since 1996




Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund

								
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