Modeling, Adaptive Management, and Decision Making in Ecosystem by pat93398

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									 Modeling, Adaptive Management, 
      and Decision Making in 
 Ecosystem Restoration Programs: 

Perspectives from Developing CLEAR
 (Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem and Assessment)

                 Robert Twilley
                      LSU
          Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment & Restoration 
                              (CLEAR) Program


     ‘Planning & 
  decision‐making 
can be improved by 
 access to reliable 
     forecasts of 
  ecosystem state, 
ecosystem services, 
 & natural capital. 
 Availability of new 
data sets, together 
  with progress in 
   computation & 
    statistics, will 
increase our ability 
      to forecast 
ecosystem change.’
      CLEAR ‐ providing scientific evaluation for restoration 
      management


• Bridge a variety of 
modeling efforts under a     
conceptual framework; 
• Engage academia, state 
& federal agencies, & 
private sector;
• Apply a modular 
approach to be 
comprehesive;
• Synthesize science & formulate decision support tools
• Link tools to restoration managers & decision makers
• Integrate & communicate products to the community 
via websites & newsletters


          Storm Surge Protection
                 CEMs – Newsletters
Reducing Flood Damage
                        Enhancing Landscape Integrity
                                                    Securing Ecosystem Services
Technical CEM 
 for Barataria
Challenges to Establishing a Modeling System 
• Programmatic Needs (Planning, Design and Operations)

   • And Increasing Knowledge (Systems Ecology and 
                     Engineering)
     • Modeling for Planning and Design
     VS Modeling to Increase Knowledge 
          (reduce uncertainties)
                                       Planning & Implementation -
                                        Restoration and Protection
               Application
                                            Operations -
                    Innovation             Coastal Hazards
                              Models
                         Develop models of
                        coastal processes and
                         ecosystem response

                Science Modules                 Observations
                  Develop basic
Input/Ana      knowledge of coastal
                                          Data streams necessary
                                             to build Science
lysis             processes and            Modules and Models
                    dynamics
• Simulation vs Desktop Analysis
• Building Community Effort vs Individual (corporate) 
                Intellectual Property
              • Projects vs Programs
Variety of Data
Types, Model
Domains, Model
Platforms Across
Geospatial
Landscape -
Uniform Structure
                                                  Acadiana                  Barataria Bay              Pontchartrain/
SubProvince         Chenier Plain
                                               Bays/Terrebonne                                         Breton Sound


Simulation Models                                Hydrodynamic               Hydrodynamic                Hydrodynamic
                        Hydrodynamic
                                                   Endpoints                  Endpoints                   Endpoints
                          Endpoints

                                                Land         Habitat                                       Water
                                               Building     Switching                                      Quality



 Desktop Models       Land         Habitat                                 Land          Habitat      Land            Habitat
                     Building     Switching                               Building      Switching    Building        Switching
                                              Habitat Use       Water
                                                                Quality
                    Habitat Use    Water                                  Habitat Use    Water      Habitat Use
                                   Quality                                               Quality


  Restoration
   Benefits
                           Benefits/                 Benefits/                   Benefits/                 Benefits/
                          Evaluation                Evaluation                  Evaluation                Evaluation
    • Getting from Concepts to Construction
• Conceptual Stages – Uncertainties – Learning –
           Incremental Implementation 
   • Models as Part of Decision Support Tools
• Planning – Design – Operations & Management
  • Modeling to Support Adaptive Management 
           Learning vs Implementation
                                   Research to Operations
     Restoration
     Endpoints
     Nitrate Distribution                    4                               5
     Restoration
     Endpoints
3    Salinity, Sediments              Restoration                   Restoration
     Distribution                     Benefits                      Alternatives
     Restoration
     Endpoints




                                                                                n
                                                                          e1
                                                                           itio
     Habitat/Landscape




                                                                        e2
                                                        nd

                                                                      ativ




                                                                     e3
     Structure




                                                                   ativ
                                                     Co

                                                                  ern




                                                                 ativ
                                                                                    1




                                                               ern
                                                     se

                                                               Alt



                                                              ern
                                                  Ba



                                                           Alt

                                                          Alt
    Water Quality           Ecological           Hydrodynamics
    Desktop Models          Simulation Models    Simulation Models

    Water Quality           Ecological           Hydrodynamics
    Simulation Models       Desktop Models       Desktop Models


                                  2
• Models to Calibrate 
  Project Design with 
  System Response –
 ‘Drawing a New Map’

Feature    Area   Thickness   Time scale
           km2    m           yr


Splay      2      3           single
                              flood
Bay fill   250    15          150 yr

Distrib.   136    80          200 yr
Mouth
bar
Major      30,000 35          1500 yr
lobe
• Hydrodynamic Modeling vs Ecosystem Benefits

 • Ecological Engineering vs Civil Engineering –
    building an ecosystem (coastal features);
       • Model Verification and Certification
• Documenting assumptions and validation procedures
 • Governance to achieve individual and programmatic 
                      ownership
Interagency Modeling Center – RECOVER – Everglades (CERP)
Integrating hydrodynamic and ecological modeling
     Report from the Science Board Meeting

      January 23-24, 2008, New Orleans, LA

‘Integration of Ecological and Hydrodynamic Models
Still needs to be resolved
Questions/Comments?

								
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