Modeling, Adaptive Management, and Decision Making in Ecosystem Restoration Programs: Perspectives from Developing CLEAR (Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem and Assessment) Robert Twilley LSU Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment & Restoration (CLEAR) Program ‘Planning & decision‐making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, & natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation & statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change.’ CLEAR ‐ providing scientific evaluation for restoration management • Bridge a variety of modeling efforts under a conceptual framework; • Engage academia, state & federal agencies, & private sector; • Apply a modular approach to be comprehesive; • Synthesize science & formulate decision support tools • Link tools to restoration managers & decision makers • Integrate & communicate products to the community via websites & newsletters Storm Surge Protection CEMs – Newsletters Reducing Flood Damage Enhancing Landscape Integrity Securing Ecosystem Services Technical CEM for Barataria Challenges to Establishing a Modeling System • Programmatic Needs (Planning, Design and Operations) • And Increasing Knowledge (Systems Ecology and Engineering) • Modeling for Planning and Design VS Modeling to Increase Knowledge (reduce uncertainties) Planning & Implementation - Restoration and Protection Application Operations - Innovation Coastal Hazards Models Develop models of coastal processes and ecosystem response Science Modules Observations Develop basic Input/Ana knowledge of coastal Data streams necessary to build Science lysis processes and Modules and Models dynamics • Simulation vs Desktop Analysis • Building Community Effort vs Individual (corporate) Intellectual Property • Projects vs Programs Variety of Data Types, Model Domains, Model Platforms Across Geospatial Landscape - Uniform Structure Acadiana Barataria Bay Pontchartrain/ SubProvince Chenier Plain Bays/Terrebonne Breton Sound Simulation Models Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic Endpoints Endpoints Endpoints Endpoints Land Habitat Water Building Switching Quality Desktop Models Land Habitat Land Habitat Land Habitat Building Switching Building Switching Building Switching Habitat Use Water Quality Habitat Use Water Habitat Use Water Habitat Use Quality Quality Restoration Benefits Benefits/ Benefits/ Benefits/ Benefits/ Evaluation Evaluation Evaluation Evaluation • Getting from Concepts to Construction • Conceptual Stages – Uncertainties – Learning – Incremental Implementation • Models as Part of Decision Support Tools • Planning – Design – Operations & Management • Modeling to Support Adaptive Management Learning vs Implementation Research to Operations Restoration Endpoints Nitrate Distribution 4 5 Restoration Endpoints 3 Salinity, Sediments Restoration Restoration Distribution Benefits Alternatives Restoration Endpoints n e1 itio Habitat/Landscape e2 nd ativ e3 Structure ativ Co ern ativ 1 ern se Alt ern Ba Alt Alt Water Quality Ecological Hydrodynamics Desktop Models Simulation Models Simulation Models Water Quality Ecological Hydrodynamics Simulation Models Desktop Models Desktop Models 2 • Models to Calibrate Project Design with System Response – ‘Drawing a New Map’ Feature Area Thickness Time scale km2 m yr Splay 2 3 single flood Bay fill 250 15 150 yr Distrib. 136 80 200 yr Mouth bar Major 30,000 35 1500 yr lobe • Hydrodynamic Modeling vs Ecosystem Benefits • Ecological Engineering vs Civil Engineering – building an ecosystem (coastal features); • Model Verification and Certification • Documenting assumptions and validation procedures • Governance to achieve individual and programmatic ownership Interagency Modeling Center – RECOVER – Everglades (CERP) Integrating hydrodynamic and ecological modeling Report from the Science Board Meeting January 23-24, 2008, New Orleans, LA ‘Integration of Ecological and Hydrodynamic Models Still needs to be resolved Questions/Comments?
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