Estimation of errorpropagation and prediction intervals in

W
Document Sample
scope of work template
							Estimation of error propagation and
prediction intervals in Multivariate
Curve Resolution Alternating Least
 Squares using resampling methods

   Joaquim Jaumot, Raimundo Gargallo
           and Romà Tauler*
    Department of Analytical Chemistry
         University of Barcelona
Outline:

•Introduction
•Rotational ambiguities and feasible bands
•Error propagation and resampling methods
•Results
•Conclusions
           Multivariate (Soft) Self Modeling
                  Curve Resolution
                                                                    NC                  NC
 1                        1.5

                                                                    ST
0.8
                C          1
                                           ST
0.6

0.4
                                                           C            +                E
                          0.5                                  NR            NR
0.2

 0                         0
  0   10   20   30   40     0   20   40    60    80 100

                                                                            NC
1.5



                                                                                      N
                                                                                 d = ∑ c s +e
 1
                                     D                              D             ij k=1 ik kj ij
0.5                                                       NR

 0
                                                                                    Bilinearity!
  0   10   20   30   40   50    60    70        80   90
   Multivariate (Soft) Self Modeling
          Curve Resolution
• Multivariate Curve Resolution (MCR) methods have
been shown to be powerful self-soft-modeling tools able to
investigate complex chemical systems with a minimum
number of assumptions.

• Alternating Least Squares (ALS) has become a
popular method for Multivariate Curve Resolution (MCR)
due to its flexibility in constraint implementation during the
optimization of resolved profiles.
Multivariate (Soft) Self Modeling
       Curve Resolution

• What are the reliability of MCR-ALS
  estimations?

  •   Do the MCR-ALS solutions have rotational and
      scale freedom?

  •   Are they unique solutions or exist instead a band
      of feasible solutions?

  •   How errors and noise are propagated from
      experimental data to ALS estimations?
            Goals of this study

• Find the reliability of ALS resolved profiles in
multivariate curve resolution.

• Estimate prediction error intervals for ALS profiles

• Estimate prediction error intervals for parameters
calculated from MCR-ALS resolved profiles

• Investigate the interaction between propagation of
errors and rotational ambiguities (noise effects on
rotational ambiguities and constraints).
Outline:

•Introduction
•Rotational ambiguities and calculation of
 feasible bands
•Error propagation and resampling methods
•Results
•Conclusions
Lawton and Sylvestre feasible bands
         non-negative spectra

                                I
                                           5
pure spectrà                         non-negative concentration
                      AI
normalization
to unit area                                 4
                                                                PC1
                                         3       1,2,3,4,5
                       AII           2           experimental
                                                 values
                                II   1
                                         non-negative concentration


         PC2
                  non-negative spectra

   W.H. Lawton and EA Sylvestre, Technometrics 1971, 13, 617-33
        Rotational Ambiguities
Factor Analysis (PCA) Data Matrix Decomposition
                  D = U VT + E
        ‘True’ Data Matrix Decomposition
                  D = C ST + E

         D = U T T-1 VT + E = C ST + E
            C = U T; ST = T-1 VT

   How to find the rotation matrix T?
       Matrix decomposition is not unique!
        T(N,N) is any non-singular matrix
        There is rotational freedom for T
          Rotational Ambiguities
Because of rotational ambiguities instead of
unique solutions, a set of feasible solutions are
obtained

Feasible solutions are different solutions that fit
equally well the data under a set of constraints

For a particular system under a set of constraints,
feasible solutions are defined from a set of
possible T values.
       Rotational Ambiguities

• T values define the band of feasible
  solutions or feasible bands
  • How to define the boundaries of these
    feasible bands?
  • How to represent graphically these
    boundaries?
       Is it possible to define band boundaries
                    (Tmax and Tmin)?
             •0.5


             •0.4                                                        Tmax
             •0.3

             •0.2
                                                                             Tmin
How          •0.1


to            •0
               •0   •5        •10         •15     •20    •25   •30     •35         •40     •45   •50


calculate                                               Tmax
             •1.5

Tmax
and           •1



Tmin?        •0.5




              •0
                                                        Tmin
               •0        •5         •10         •15      •20     •25         •30         •35     •40
      How to define and find the band
               boundaries?
• What are the T values giving the maximum/outer
  and minimum/ inner boundaries of the feasible
  bands under a set of constraints?
     D*= Cinic STinic =
       = Cinic Tmin T-1min STinic = CminSTmin =
       = CinicTmax T-1max STinic = CmaxSTmax

     where: D(NR,NC), C(NR,N), ST(N,NC), T(N,N)


 How to define and evaluate Tmax and Tmin?
Evaluation of boundaries of feasible bands:
             Previous studies
• W.H.Lawton and E.A.Sylvestre, Technometrics, 1971, 13, 617-
633
•O.S.Borgen and B.R.Kowalski, Anal. Chim. Acta, 1985, 174, 1-
26
•K.Kasaki, S.Kawata, S.Minami, Appl. Opt., 1983 (22), 3599-
3603
•R.C.Henry and B.M.Kim (Chemomet. and Intell. Lab. Syst.,
1990, 8, 205-216)
•P.D.Wentzell, J-H. Wang, L.F.Loucks and K.M.Miller
(Can.J.Chem. 76, 1144-1155 (1998))
•P. Gemperline (Analytical Chemistry, 1999, 71, 5398-5404)
•R.Tauler (J.of Chemometrics 2001, 15, 627-46)
•M.Legger and P.D.Wentzell, Chemomet and Intell. Lab. Syst.,
2002, 171-188
Definition of band boundaries
The whole measured signal is:
                 D = ∑ Di = ∑ ci siT
The contribution of each species to the whole signal is:
                    Di = cisiT

Solving the Optimization Problem:
max/outer boundary: Find Tmax that makes ci siT maximum
min/inner boundary: Find Tmin that makes ci siT minimum
  Constrained Non-Linear Optimization
            Problem (NCP)

              Find T which makes:

       min/max f(T)         subject to ge(T) = 0
            T               and to     gi(T) ≤ 0

 where T is the matrix of variables, f(T) is a
non-linear scalar function of T and g(T) is the
vector of constraints (non-linear function of T)

     Matlab Optimizarion Toolbox fmincon function
    1) What are the variables of the problem?
               T (rotation matrix),
                 D = C T T-1 ST
2) What is the objective function f(T) to be
optimized?
For each species i = 1,..,ns
                                                This gives the

            c i si                  ∑c sij ij    relative signal
                                                contribution of
 fi (T) =                  f (T ) =
                         or i
                                   j

            CS       T
                                    ∑c s
                                  i,j
                                        ij ij
                                                species i respect
                                                the global
                                                measured signal !
f(T) is scalar value between 0 and 1!
3) What are the constraints g(T)?

The following constraints may be considered:
normalization/closure           gnorm/gclos
non-negativity                  gcneg/gsneg
known values/selectivity        gknown/gsel
unimodality                     gunim
trilinearity (three-way data)   gtril

  Are they equality or inequality constraints?
   4) What are the initial estimates of C, ST?

•Initial estimates of C and ST are obtained by MCR-ALS
•Initial estimates are feasible solutions fulfilling the
constraints of the system (non-negativity, unimodality,
closure, selectivity, local rank,…)

     5) What are the initial values of T?
•NCP depends on initial estimates of T! (local minima,
convergence, speed …)
                           1      0     ...    0
                                                  
                           0       1    ...    0
      Tini = eye(N) =       ...   ...   ...   ... 
                                                  
                           0      0     ...    1
                                                  
                 Optimization algorithm
•R.Tauler (J.of Chemometrics 2001, 15, 627-46)
                      Initial estimations of CALS and S ALS
                      profiles are obtained by MCR-ALS
                           T=eye(number of species)


                 For each species define objective function
                 f(T)=norm(c(T)s(T))=norm(cALS T sALS / T)


                           Select constraints g(T):
             equality ge: normalization/closure, known values,
      inequality gi: non-negartivity, selectivity, unimodality, trilinearity,


  Find T min which gives a minimum         Find T max which gives a maximum
                of f(T)                                  of f(T)
  under constraints gi(T)<0, ge(T)=0       under constraints gi(T)<0. ge(T)=0


         Built minimum band                        Built maximum band
          c min = cALS / T min                      cmax = cALS / T max
          s min = sALS / T min                       smax=sALS / T max
  Experimental data system under
              study
          1.5




           1




          0.5
                D

           0
            0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90




Acid-base spectrophotometric titration of the double
stranded heteropolynucleotide polyinosinic-polycytidylic
acid. Spectral region between 240-320 nm and pH region
between pH 2 and pH 9
                                         concentration profiles
                       1
                                                                                                  Application of MCR-
                      0.8
                                                                                                    ALS to the
  Conc. relativa




                                                                               C
                      0.6
                                                                                                    experimental data
                      0.4                                        pK2                                matrix D
                               pK1
                      0.2
                                                                                                  Applied constraints in ALS
                       0
                           2        3         4        5         6         7        8        9       were:
                                                           pH
                                                                                                  a) non-negative spectra
                                             spectra profiles
                      0.8                                                                         b) non-negative
                                                                                                     concentrations
                      0.6
                                                                                                  c) closure in concentrations
  Absorbànica /a.u.




                      0.4
                                                                               ST
                                                                                                  Initial estimates were obtained
                      0.2
                                                                                                       from purest variables
                       0
                           0   10       20        30   40        50   60       70       80   90
                                                       Nº canal /nm



•This system has selectivity! local rank resolution conditions!
•Initial estimates from pure variable detection methods provide good
initial estimates that produce solutions close to the true profiles
           Parameter estimation
   Mass-action law is only assumed at the site level
   and not for the whole polynucleotide molecule

Evaluation of constants
from intersection profiles         Proposed species:

pK1           3.6660               poly(I)-poly(C+)

                             poly(I)-poly(C)-poly(C+) + H
pK2           4.9244
                                   poly(I)-poly(C) + H
              Estimation of band boundaries
           (max/min contribution of each species)
                   of feasible solutions
                   1

                  0.8

                  0.6


Large Rotational 0.4
ambiguities      0.2


were present       0
                            5    10        15        20        25        30        35

when constraints
applied were       3


only closure     2.5


non-negativity!!! 2
                  1.5

                   1

                  0.5

                   0
                        0   10   20   30        40        50        60        70    80
              Estimation of band boundaries
           (max/min contribution of each species)
                   of feasible solutions
                    1

                   0.8


Rotational         0.6


ambiguities        0.4


nearly             0.2


dissappear          0
                             5    10        15        20        25        30        35

when selectivity
constraint was     0.8


applied!!!         0.6


                   0.4


                   0.2


                    0
                         0   10   20   30        40        50        60        70    80
Outline:

•Introduction
•Rotational ambiguities and feasible bands
•Error propagation and resampling methods
•Results
•Conclusions
Error propagation and resampling
            methods
•How experimental error/noise in the input data
matrices affects MCR-ALS results?

   •For ALS calculations there is no known
   analytical formula to calculate error estimations.
   (i.e. like in linear lesast-squares regressions)

   •Bootstrap estimations using resampling methods
   is attempted
       Resampling Methods

              Resampling Methods



     Theoretical       Experimental
     Data              Data



Montecarlo          Noise             Jackknife
Simulation         Addition
Building theoretical data

   Experimental
    Data, Dexp


          MCR-ALS

                  ST    Experimental
  C                        error
                             E

          Theoretical
           Data, D
           Montecarlo Simulations
               M0.1 = D +N0.1 M1 = D +N1
                                                    Concentration
               M2= D +N2      M5= D +N5                profiles     C
Theoretical
  Data                                      MCR-ALS
                       New Data Matrix
    D
                                                                    ST
                                                     Pure Spectra
              Random
               Error
                                        250 times each noise level!
        N0.1, N1, N2 and N5
                                        1000 simulations!
MATLAB function randomn with zero
mean and relative sd 0.1%, 1%, 2% and
5% of maximum signal in D
           Noise Addition Simulations
             D0.1 = Dexp +N0.1 D1 = Dexp +N1
             D2= Dexp +N2 D5= Dexp +N5              Concentration
                                                                    C
                                                       profiles


Experimental                                MCR-ALS
                         New Data Matrix
   Data

                                                                    ST
    Dexp                                             Pure Spectra
                Random
                 Error
                                        250 times each noise level!
           N0.1, N1, N2 and N5          1000 simulations!
MATLAB function randomn with zero
mean and relative sd 0.1%, 1%, 2% and
5% of maximum signal in D
       Experimental       Jackknife Simulations
          Data
        Dexp (36,81)      J1
                               Reduced Matrix (1,10,19,28) (32,81)
                          J2
N0.1          +                Reduced Matrix (2,11,20,29) (32,81)
N1                        J3
       Random Error          Reduced Matrix (3,12,21,30)   (32,81)
N2                        J4
and           =              Reduced Matrix (4,13,22,31)   (32,81)
N5                        J5
                             Reduced Matrix (5,14,23,32)   (32,81)
         New Data         J6
           Matrix            Reduced Matrix (6,15,24,33)   (32,81)
                          J7
        Dnoise (36,81)       Reduced Matrix (7,16,25,34)   (32,81)
                          J8
                             Reduced Matrix (8,17,26,35)   (32,81)
       D0.1, D1, D2, D5   J9
                             Reduced Matrix (9,18,27,36)   (32,81)
       Jackknife Simulations

                         Concentration
                           profiles
Jack Knife
               MCR-ALS        C
 Reduced
Data Matrix
                         Pure Spectra
    JN
                             ST
N = 1,..., 9
Outline:

•Introduction
•Rotational ambiguities and feasible bands
•Error propagation and resampling methods
•Results
•Conclusions
         Presentation of Results
1. Calculation of species profiles error bands:
   Mean profile, maximum and minimum profiles,
   standard deviation profiles and confidence range
   profiles

2. pKa (parameter) error estimations

3. Rotational ambiguity effects on error estimates
   from resampling methods. Calculation of
   boundaries of feasible bands from mean
   species profiles error bands
                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of the concentration profiles
                           1

                     0.9

                     0.8

                     0.7
                                                                                             Noise 0%                       Monte Carlo Simulations
                                                                                                                            Concentration profiles:
Rel. concentration




                     0.6

                     0.5

                     0.4

                     0.3

                     0.2
                                                                                                                            Mean max and min profiles
                                                                                                                            Confidence range profiles
                     0.1

                           0
                               2          3                 4                 5                 6       7       8       9
                                                                                      pH




                                                                                                                                                            Mean, bands and confidence range of concentratios profiles
                                                                                                                                                    1
                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of the concentration profiles



                     0.9
                           1
                                                                                                                                              0.9

                                                                                                                                              0.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Noise 2%
                     0.8

                     0.7
                                                                                           Noise 0.1%                                         0.7

                                                                                                                                              0.6




                                                                                                                                Rel. conc.
Rel. concentration




                     0.6                                                                                                                      0.5

                     0.5                                                                                                                      0.4

                     0.4                                                                                                                      0.3


                     0.3                                                                                                                      0.2


                     0.2                                                                                                                      0.1

                                                                                                                                                    0
                     0.1
                                                                                                                                                                3                 4                    5                 6       7       8
                           0                                                                                                                                                                               pH
                               2          3                 4                 5                 6       7       8       9
                                                                                   pH
                                      Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles                                                            Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles
                           1                                                                                                                  1.2


                     0.9
                                                                                                                                                    1



                                                                                                    Noise 1%
                     0.8

                     0.7                                                                                                                      0.8


                     0.6
                                                                                                                                              0.6
                                                                                                                            Rel. conc.
Rel. conc.




                     0.5

                     0.4                                                                                                                      0.4


                     0.3


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Noise 5%
                                                                                                                                              0.2
                     0.2

                     0.1                                                                                                                            0

                           0
                                                                                                                                             -0.2
                                          3                  4                    5                 6       7       8                                   2       3                 4                5                 6       7       8       9
                                                                                      pH                                                                                                                   pH
                                    Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles
                        0.8


                        0.7


                        0.6

                                                                                           Noise 0%                      Monte Carlo Simulations
                                                                                                                         Spectra profiles:
                        0.5
     Absorbance /a.u.




                        0.4




                                                                                                                         Mean max and min profiles
                        0.3


                        0.2




                                                                                                                         Confidence range profiles
                        0.1


                              0
                              240   250            260            270            280             290   300   310   320
                                                                        Wavelength /nm


                                            Mean, bands and confidence range of the spectra
                        0.8
                                                                                                                                                                                          Mean, bands and confidence range of the spectra
                                                                                                                                                                0.8
                        0.7

                        0.6                                                              Noise 0.1%                                                             0.7

                                                                                                                                                                0.6                                                                                  Noise 2%
                        0.5                                                                                                                                     0.5
Absorbance /a.u.




                                                                                                                         Absorbance /a.u.
                        0.4                                                                                                                                     0.4

                                                                                                                                                                0.3
                        0.3
                                                                                                                                                                0.2
                        0.2
                                                                                                                                                                0.1

                        0.1
                                                                                                                                                                      0

                              0                                                                                                                                -0.1
                                                                                                                                                                      240         250            260              270            280                 290     300     310     320
                              240   250            260            270             280            290   300   310   320                                                                                                  Wavelength /nm


                                                                        Wavelength /nm
                                               Mean, bands and confidence range of spectra
                        0.8
 Absorbance /a.u.




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of the spectra
                                                                                                                                                                      1.6

                        0.7
                                                                                         Noise 1%
                                                                                                                                                                      1.4

                        0.6                                                                                                                                           1.2


                        0.5                                                                                                                                                 1



                        0.4
                                                                                                                                            Absorbance /a.u.




                                                                                                                                                                      0.8



                        0.3                                                                                                                                           0.6




                        0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Noise 5%
                                                                                                                                                                      0.4


                                                                                                                                                                      0.2

                        0.1                                                                                                                                                 0


                         0                                                                                                                                        -0.2

                         240        250                270 280
                                                   260 Wavelength /nm                            290   300 310     320                                                      240     250             260               270                280
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wavelength /nm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       290     300     310     320
         Monte Carlo Simulations
          pKa error estimations

                 pK1                     pK2
Noise
        Value      Std. dev     Value      Std. dev
added
0%      3.6660         4e-15    4.9244         9e-15
0.1 %   3.6662          6e-4    4.9243         0.0012
1%      3.6696         0.0065   4.9262         0.0128
2%      3.6761         0.0127   4.9173         0.0245
5%      3.9762         0.4349   5.0745         0.7595
              Calculation of band boundaries from mean species
                 profiles error bands (under non-negativity and
                               closure constraints)
  1                                                                                  1

0.8                                                                                0.8

0.6                                                                                0.6

0.4                                                                                0.4

0.2                                                                                0.2

  0                                                                                  0
          5         10             15         20         25        30        35          0         5         10         15         20         25        30        35



2.5                                                                                2.5

  2

1.5
                                              Noise 0.1%                             2

                                                                                   1.5
                                                                                                                                         Noise 2%
  1                                                                                  1

0.5                                                                                0.5

  0                                                                                  0
      0   10       20         30         40         50        60        70    80         0    10       20         30         40         50         60        70    80




  1                                                                                  1

0.8                                                                                0.8

0.6                                                                                0.6

0.4                                                                                0.4

0.2                                                                                0.2

  0                                                                                  0
      0        5         10         15         20        25        30        35               5         10             15         20         25         30        35



2.5                                                                                  2

  2

1.5
                                                    Noise 1%                                                                                 Noise 5%
                                                                                     1
  1

0.5

  0                                                                                  0
      0   10       20         30         40         50        60        70    80             10        20         30         40         50         60        70    80
              Calculation of band boundaries from mean profile
               error bands (under non-negativity, closure and
                            selectivity constraints)

  1                                                                        1

0.8                                                                      0.8

0.6                                                                      0.6

0.4                                                                      0.4

0.2                                                                      0.2

  0                                                                        0
          5      10        15        20        25        30        35               5     10        15        20        25        30        35



0.8                                                                      0.8


0.6


0.4
                                          Noise 0.1%                     0.6


                                                                         0.4
                                                                                                                        Noise 2%
0.2                                                                      0.2


  0                                                                        0
      0   10    20    30        40        50        60        70    80         0    10   20    30        40        50        60        70    80




  1                                                                        1

0.8                                                                      0.8

0.6                                                                      0.6

0.4                                                                      0.4

0.2                                                                      0.2

  0                                                                        0
          5      10        15        20        25        30        35               5     10        15        20        25        30        35



0.8                                                                        1




                                               Noise 1%                                                                 Noise 5%
                                                                         0.8
0.6

                                                                         0.6
0.4
                                                                         0.4

0.2
                                                                         0.2

  0                                                                        0
      0   10    20    30        40        50        60        70    80             10    20    30        40        50        60        70    80
                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of the concentration profiles
                           1

                     0.9




                                                                                                                            Noise Addition Simulations
                     0.8

                     0.7
Rel. concentration




                     0.6

                     0.5

                     0.4
                                                                                                                            Concentration profiles:
                                                                                                                            Mean max and min profiles
                     0.3

                     0.2

                     0.1

                           0
                               2          3                 4                 5
                                                                                      pH
                                                                                                6       7       8       9
                                                                                                                            Confidence range profiles
                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of the concentration profiles                                                   Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles
                           1                                                                                                                    1

                     0.9                                                                                                                  0.9

                     0.8                                                                                                                  0.8

                     0.7                                                                                                                  0.7

                     0.6                                                                                                                  0.6
Rel. conc.




                                                                                                                             Rel. conc
                     0.5                                                                                                                  0.5

                                                                                                                                          0.4
                     0.4
                                                                                                                                          0.3
                     0.3
                                                                                                                                          0.2
                     0.2
                                                                                                                                          0.1
                     0.1
                                                                                                                                                0
                           0
                                          3                  4                    5                 6       7       8                                   3                 4                  5                   6   7   8
                                                                                      pH                                                                                                          pH




                                      Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles                                                    Mean, bands and confidence range of concentration profiles
                           1
                                                                                                                                                1
                     0.9

                     0.8
                                                                                                                                          0.8
                     0.7

                     0.6                                                                                                                  0.6
                                                                                                                             Rel. conc.
Rel. conc




                     0.5
                                                                                                                                          0.4
                     0.4

                     0.3
                                                                                                                                          0.2
                     0.2

                     0.1                                                                                                                        0

                           0
                                          3                  4                    5                 6       7       8                                   3                 4                  5                   6   7   8
                                                                                      pH                                                                                                          pH
                                                      Mean, bands and confidence range of the spectra
                           0.8



                           0.7



                           0.6



                           0.5
                                                                                                                                Noise Addition Simulations
                                                                                                                                Spectra profiles:
       Absorbance /a.u.




                           0.4



                           0.3



                           0.2



                           0.1
                                                                                                                                Mean, max and min profiles
                                0
                                240   250       260                270                280
                                                                             Wavelength /nm
                                                                                                        290   300   310   320
                                                                                                                                Confidence range profiles
                                            Mean, bands and confidence range of spectra                                                                                      Mean, bands and confidence range of spectra
                          0.8                                                                                                                              0.9


                          0.7                                                                                                                              0.8

                                                                                                                                                           0.7
                          0.6
                                                                                                                                                           0.6
                          0.5
Absorbance /a.u.




                                                                                                                                       Absorbance /a.u.
                                                                                                                                                           0.5
                          0.4
                                                                                                                                                           0.4

                          0.3
                                                                                                                                                           0.3

                          0.2                                                                                                                              0.2

                          0.1                                                                                                                              0.1

                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                0
                                240   250      260                270             280                   290   300   310   320                                    240   250      260            270            280          290   300   310   320
                                                                         Wavelength /nm                                                                                                              Wavelength /nm




                                            Mean, bands and confidence range of spectra                                                                                      Mean, bands and confidence range of spectra
                          0.8                                                                                                                              1.6


                          0.7                                                                                                                              1.4

                                                                                                                                                           1.2
                          0.6

                                                                                                                                                                 1
                          0.5
                                                                                                                                Absorbance /a.u.
Absorbance /a.u.




                                                                                                                                                           0.8
                          0.4
                                                                                                                                                           0.6
                          0.3
                                                                                                                                                           0.4
                          0.2
                                                                                                                                                           0.2

                          0.1
                                                                                                                                                                 0

                                0                                                                                                                         -0.2
                                240   250      260                270             280                   290   300   310   320                                    240   250      260            270            280          290   300   310   320
                                                                         Wavelength /nm                                                                                                              Wavelength /nm
        Noise Addition Simulations
          pKa error estimations

                 pK1                     pK2
Noise
        Value      Std. dev     Value      Std. dev
added
0%      3.6539         2e-14    4.9238         2e-14
0.1 %   3.6540          6e-4    4.9226         0.0022
1%      3.6592         0.0061   4.9134         0.0264
2%      3.6656         0.0101   4.9100         0.0409
5%      4.0754         0.4873   5.3308         1.1217
Calculation of band boundaries from mean profile
 error bands (under non-negativity and closure
     constraints) at 1% error noise addition
   1.2

     1

   0.8

   0.6

   0.4

   0.2

     0

   -0.2
          0    5        10        15        20        25        30        35    40



     3

   2.5

     2

   1.5

     1

   0.5

     0

   -0.5
          0   10   20        30        40        50        60        70    80   90
Jackknife Simulations at 1% noise; Concentration profiles:
 Mean max and min profiles and confidence range profiles
                                                                            M e a n , b a n d s a n d c o n fid e n c e ra n g e p f c o n c e n t ra tio n p ro file s

                                 1                                 1                                                                                                           1

                                0.9                               0.9                                                                                                         0.9

                                0.8                               0.8                                                                                                         0.8

                                0.7                               0.7                                                                                                         0.7

                                0.6                               0.6                                                                                                         0.6

                                0.5                               0.5                                                                                                         0.5

                                0.4                               0.4                                                                                                         0.4

                                0.3                               0.3                                                                                                         0.3

                                0.2                               0.2                                                                                                         0.2

                                0.1                               0.1                                                                                                         0.1

                                 0                                 0                                                                                                           0

                                      2   3   4   5   6   7   8         2         3                  4                    5                 6                  7          8         2   3   4   5   6   7   8




                                 1                                 1                                                                                                           1

                                0.9                               0.9                                                                                                         0.9

                                0.8                               0.8                                                                                                         0.8

                                0.7                               0.7                                                                                                         0.7
R e l. c o n c e n tra t io n




                                0.6                               0.6                                                                                                         0.6

                                0.5                               0.5                                                                                                         0.5

                                0.4                               0.4                                                                                                         0.4

                                0.3                               0.3                                                                                                         0.3

                                0.2                               0.2                                                                                                         0.2

                                0.1                               0.1                                                                                                         0.1

                                 0                                 0                                                                                                           0

                                      2   3   4   5   6   7   8         2         3                  4                    5                 6                  7          8         2   3   4   5   6   7   8




                                 1                                 1                                                                                                           1

                                0.9                               0.9                                                                                                         0.9

                                0.8                               0.8                                                                                                         0.8

                                0.7                               0.7                                                                                                         0.7

                                0.6                               0.6                                                                                                         0.6

                                0.5                               0.5                                                                                                         0.5

                                0.4                               0.4                                                                                                         0.4

                                0.3                               0.3                                                                                                         0.3

                                0.2                               0.2                                                                                                         0.2

                                0.1                               0.1                                                                                                         0.1

                                 0                                 0                                                                                                           0

                                      2   3   4   5   6   7   8         2         3                  4                    5                 6                  7          8         2   3   4   5   6   7   8

                                                                                                                     pH
  Jackknife Simulations at 1% noise; spectra profiles:
Mean max and min profiles and confidence range profiles
                                                                                                   M ean, bands and c onfidenc e range of s pec tra
                          0.8                                                       0.8                                                                             0.8


                          0.7                                                       0.7
                                                                                                                                                                    0.7

                          0.6                                                       0.6
                                                                                                                                                                    0.6

                          0.5                                                       0.5
                                                                                                                                                                    0.5

                          0.4                                                       0.4
                                                                                                                                                                    0.4

                          0.3                                                       0.3
                                                                                                                                                                    0.3
                          0.2                                                       0.2
                                                                                                                                                                    0.2
                          0.1                                                       0.1
                                                                                                                                                                    0.1
                            0                                                         0

                                                                                                                                                                     0
                          -0. 1                                                     -0.1
                              240   250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320      240   250     260       270       280       290       300      310    320      240   250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320




                          0.8                                                       0.8                                                                             0.8


                          0.7                                                       0.7                                                                             0.7


                          0.6                                                       0.6                                                                             0.6


                          0.5                                                       0.5                                                                             0.5
    A bs orbanc e /a.u.




                          0.4                                                       0.4                                                                             0.4


                          0.3                                                       0.3                                                                             0.3


                          0.2                                                       0.2                                                                             0.2


                          0.1                                                       0.1                                                                             0.1


                            0                                                         0                                                                              0

                             240    250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320     240    250     260       270       280       290       300      310    320      240   250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320




                          0.8                                                       0.8                                                                             0.8


                          0.7                                                       0.7                                                                             0.7


                          0.6                                                       0.6                                                                             0.6


                          0.5                                                       0.5                                                                             0.5


                          0.4                                                       0.4                                                                             0.4


                          0.3                                                       0.3                                                                             0.3


                          0.2                                                       0.2                                                                             0.2


                          0.1                                                       0.1                                                                             0.1


                            0                                                         0                                                                              0

                             240    250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320     240    250      260       270       280       290        300     310    320     240   250   260   270   280   290   300   310   320
      Jackknife Simulations
      pKa error estimations
        at 1% noise level

Nº exp        pK1                pK2

  1      3.6629 ± 0.0066   4.9135 ± 0.0277
  2      3.6601 ± 0.0074   4.8989 ± 0.0221
  3      3.6590 ± 0.0059   4.9122 ± 0.0261
  4      3.6580 ± 0.0056   4.9221 ± 0.0189
  5      3.6333 ± 0.0130   4.9018 ± 0.0236
  6      3.6882 ± 0.0198   4.9144 ± 0.0267
  7      3.6591 ± 0.0064   4.9144 ± 0.0256
  8      3.6592 ± 0.0059   4.9144 ± 0.0253
  9      3.6582 ± 0.0065   4.9233 ± 0.0239
                         Parameter Estimation
                          Summary of results
                                    Real               0.1 %              1%                2%                5%


                              pk1          pk2    pk1      pk2      pk1        pk2    pk1        pk2    pk1        pk2


Theoretical Value   Value    3.6660    4.9244      -           -     -          -      -          -      -          -


                    Value      -            -    3.6662   4.9244   3.6696   4.9262   3.6761   4.9173   3.9762   5.0745
  MonteCarlo
  Simulations
                    Stand.
                               -            -    0.0006   0.0012   0.0065   0.0128   0.0127   0.0245   0.4349   0.7595
                     dev.


                    Value      -            -    3.6540   4.9226   3.6592   4.9134   3.6656   4.9100   4.0754   5.3308
 Noise Addition
                    Stand.
                               -            -    0.0006   0.0022   0.0061   0.0264   0.0101   0.0409   0.4873   1.1217
                     dev.


                    Value      -            -    3.6546   4.9199   3.6598   4.9128   3.6673   4.9131   4.0822   5.3292
   JackKnife
                    Stand.
                               -            -    0.0038   0.0032   0.0086   0.0244   0.0124   0.0471   0.5145   1.0906
                     dev.
Outline:

•Introduction
•Rotational ambiguities and feasible bands
•Error propagation and resampling methods
•Experimental system and simulations
•Results
•Conclusions
                      Summary
•Different approaches for calculation of error propagation
and prediction intervals of estimations have been
compared including: Monte Carlo simulations, Noise
addition resampling approaches and Jackknife based
methods.

•The obtained results allowed a preliminary investigation
of the noise effects on MCR-ALS resolved profiles and on
parameters from them estimated, and allowed also a
preliminary investigation of noise effects on rotational
ambiguities.

•The study has been shown for the resolution of a three-
component equilibrium system with overlapping
concentration and spectra profiles
                    Conclusions
-Rotational ambiguity effects on species profiles depend
on the structure and constraints of the data system.

-Rotational ambiguities effects at low noise levels in a
system with low selectivity are more important than error
propagation effects

-However, at high noise levels (≥ 5%), error propagation
effects became larger than rotational ambiguities effects
and they are both mixed and undistinguishable

- Obviously the best is to have a system with enough
selectivity (low rotational ambiguities) and with low noise
levels (low error propagation)
 Poster presentations of the Chemometrics
 group from the University of Barcelona at
                 CAC2002
ELUCIDATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF A PROTEIN
FOLDING INTERMEDIATE (MOLTEN GLOBULE STATE)
USING MULTIVARIATE CURVE RESOLUTION
ALTERNATING LEAST SQUARES (MCR-ALS)
Susana Navea, Anna de Juan and Romà Tauler

MULTIVARIATE CURVE RESOLUTION ALTERNATING
LEAST SQUARES ANALYSIS OF THE CONFORMATIONAL
EQUILIBRIA OF THE OLIGONUCLEOTIDE
d<TGCTCGCT>
Joaquim Jaumot, Núria Escaja, Raimundo Gargallo, Enrique
Pedroso and Romà Tauler
HARD AND SOFT MODELLING OF ACID-BASE CHEMICAL
EQUILIBRIA OF BIOMOLECULES USING 1H-NMR
Joaquim Jaumot, Montserrat Vives, Raimundo Gargallo and Romà
Tauler

IDENTIFICATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF MICROCONTA-
MINANTS SOURCES OF NONIONIC SURFACTANTS, THEIR
DEGRADATION PRODUCTS AND LINEAR ALKYLBENZENE
SULFONATES IN COASTAL WATERS AND SEDIMENTS IN
SPAIN BY MEANS OF CHEMOMETRIC METHODS
Emma Peré-Trepat, Mira Petrovic, Damià Barceló and Romà Tauler

MULTIWAY DATA ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
CONTAMINATION SOURCES IN SURFACE NATURAL
WATERS OF CATALONIA (SPAIN)
Emma Peré-Trepat, Mónica Flo, Montserrat Muñoz, Manel Vilanova,
Josep Caixach, Antoni Ginebreda, Romà Tauler

						
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