Fundraising Memo by oga20203

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									                                          MEMORANDUM
TO:            Interested Parties
FROM:          Whit Ayres
DATE:          March 10, 2009
RE:            S.C. Republican Primary Survey Results Regarding the 2010 Governor's Race

Our firm conducted a survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters regarding the 2010
gubernatorial race on February 22-24, 2009. The results show that Gresham Barrett is already
competitive on the ballot despite having lower name recognition statewide than his competitors.
And when primary voters hear a balanced description of each candidate, Barrett moves into the
lead. Highlights of the survey are:

1.      André Bauer begins the campaign as the best-known candidate, but also the
        candidate with the highest negative rating. Henry McMaster and Gresham Barrett
        follow Bauer in name recognition, and neither one has significant negatives.
        Candidate       Name ID                Favorable      Unfavorable No Opinion
        André Bauer       89%                    43%             30%         16%
        Henry McMaster    75%                    42%              9%         24%
        Gresham Barrett   49%                    28%              6%         14%

2.      The three candidates are tightly bunched on the ballot test, with Bauer holding a
        narrow lead.
                                    Candidate                Ballot Standing
                                    André Bauer                   25%
                                    Henry McMaster                22%
                                    Gresham Barrett               21%
                                    Undecided                     32%

Gresham Barrett is competitive statewide with two better-known candidates because of his
overwhelming strength in the 3rd Congressional District that he represents. Barrett leads the
gubernatorial ballot in the 3rd District with 60 percent, followed by Bauer at 10 percent and
McMaster at 9 percent, with 21 percent undecided. The overlap between the 3rd District and the
Upstate allows Barrett to lead in the Upstate overall, while McMaster leads in the Midlands and
Bauer leads in the Lowcountry.

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3.    After hearing objective descriptions of the three candidates, including strong
      criticisms of each, Barrett moves into the lead, followed by McMaster with Bauer in
      third.

Following are the exact descriptions provided to respondents for each candidate:
     a. Gresham Barrett is the 48-year-old congressman from the Third District. A native
        of Westminster, he is a graduate of The Citadel and a former Army Captain. He
        is pro-life, married with three children. He's been a small business owner who
        served in the S.C. House of Representatives. In Congress he has emphasized
        cutting spending, personal responsibility, job creation, and energy independence.
        Barrett has been routinely endorsed by the NRA and National Right to Life
        Committee, and received some of the National Taxpayer’s Union and Citizens
        Against Government Waste’s highest rankings. His supporters say he is a
        conservative with the character and ability to work with others to be a successful
        governor. His critics say he is not ready to be governor, and he voted for the 700
        billion dollar financial bailout plan that failed.

     b. André Bauer is the 39-year-old lieutenant governor of South Carolina, the
        youngest lieutenant governor in the country. A native of Charleston, he is a
        graduate of the University of South Carolina. He is pro-life and single. He has
        served in both the South Carolina House and State Senate. As lieutenant
        governor, he has ruled almost one billion dollars of tax increases out of order.
        He has been a strong proponent of services to seniors, and he brought the Office
        on Aging into his office. His supporters say he has the energy, enthusiasm, and
        work ethic to be a successful governor. His critics say he is immature and has
        poor judgment, as shown by numerous driving problems including getting pulled
        over at gunpoint and being charged with reckless driving.

     c. Henry McMaster is the 61-year-old attorney general of South Carolina. A native
        of Columbia, he is a graduate of the University of South Carolina and the USC
        law school. He is pro-life, married with two children. He is a former State
        Republican Party Chairman, U.S. Attorney, and candidate for U.S. Senate. As
        attorney general, he has emphasized protecting children from Internet predators,
        fighting drug trafficking, and stopping illegal dog fighting. He has been honored
        for his efforts to protect the state's natural history and fight environmental crimes.
        His supporters say he is a conservative with the broad experience in state
        government necessary to be a successful governor. His critics say he is a
        lifelong politician with a history of delinquent tax payments who lost a high-profile
        rape case he should have won.

After hearing these descriptions, Gresham Barrett gains 23 points, Henry McMaster gains 9
points, and André Bauer drops 8 points.

                                Candidate       Informed Ballot Standing
                                Gresham Barrett          44%
                                Henry McMaster           31%
                                André Bauer              17%
                                Undecided                 8%


S.C. Republican Primary Survey Results                                                    Page 2 of 3
On the informed ballot, Barrett holds far more of his supporters from the initial ballot than the
other two candidates. Barrett keeps 87 percent of his initial supporters, McMaster keeps 76
percent of his, while Bauer keeps only 55 percent of his initial supporters. Barrett moves into the
lead on the informed ballot because of his strength among voters who were initially undecided.
Of initially undecided voters, Barrett takes 51 percent on the informed ballot, McMaster takes 24
percent, and Bauer takes 6 percent.

The informed ballot results are only as good as the money behind them. If Gresham Barrett can
raise the money to inform South Carolina Republican primary voters about his qualifications and
record, he has an excellent chance to win the Republican nomination for Governor.


Methodology
The sample for this survey of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina was drawn
randomly from people who voted in either the 2004 or 2006 primary for state and local offices,
or in the 2008 presidential primary. All respondents confirmed that they are still registered to
vote, and that they are likely to vote in the Republican primary election for governor next year.
Respondents were drawn by county in proportion to past Republican primary turnout. The
margin of error is ±4.38 percent. The survey was paid for by the Barrett campaign.




S.C. Republican Primary Survey Results                                                  Page 3 of 3

								
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