Meeting the Climate Change Challenge

							  Meeting the Climate Change Challenge:
Avoiding the Unmanageable, Managing the Unavoidable

                  John P. Holdren
 Assistant to the President for Science and Technology
 and Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy
 Executive Office of the President of the United States




               Keynote Address for the
       2009 World Maritime Day US Event
           New York, NY • 16 October 2009
Coverage of these remarks
• Essence of our energy-climate predicament
• Energy: Where we are, how we got here, where
  we’re headed
• Climate change: What’s already happening,
  what lies ahead absent a course change
• Technical options
• Policy goals, tools, and outlook
• A bit about climate change & national security
The essence of our energy-climate
predicament

• Without energy there is no economy.

• Without climate there is no environment.

• Without economy and environment there is no
  material well-being, no civil society, no national
  or personal security.

  Alas, the world is getting most of the energy its
  economies need in ways that are wrecking the
  climate its environment needs.
Energy -- how we got here: Growth of world
population & prosperity 1850-2000       20-fold
energy growth, nearly all of it from fossil fuels




 Growth rate 1850-1950 was 1.45%/yr, driven mainly by coal.
 From 1950-2000 it was 3.15%/yr, driven mainly by oil & natural gas.
The energy-CO2 picture in 2008
         population   ppp-GDP        energy   fossil E    fossil CO2
         (millions)   (trillion $)    (EJ)    (percent)     (MtC)

World      6692        69.7          545      82%         8390

China      1326           7.9         99      85%         1910

USA         304        14.2          105      86%         1670

Russia      142           2.3         30      91%           440

India      1140           3.4         29      64%           390

Brazil       192         2.0          10      58%           100
  But Brazil adds 200-400 MtC/yr from deforestation.
Where we’re headed under BAU: by 2030, energy
+60%, electricity +75%, continued fossil dominance


       Primary energy




                                          WEO 2007
What’s wrong with this picture?
• Multiple reasons for changing course include
  – high US oil imports & increasing international
    competition for oil involving China, USA, & others
  – conventional air pollution, water pollution, and
    ecosystem impacts from fossil-fuel harvesting & use
• But most compelling reason (which also requires
  the fastest, biggest course change) is dominant
  role of fossil-fuels in global climate-disruption
  – energy accounts for ~70% of global emissions of the
    heat-trapping gases & particles wrecking the climate
    (the other 30% are from deforestation, agriculture,
    waste management, cement production)
Climate change: what’s already happening
 • Climate change is occurring faster than
   previously predicted
   – emissions & concentrations rising at rates at or above
     those of earlier IPCC “high” scenarios
   – temperatures are increasing, glaciers retreating, sea
     ice shrinking, permafrost thawing, Antarctic &
     Greenland ice sheets slipping, sea level rising
 • Significant harm to human well-being is already
   occurring
   – increases in floods, droughts, wildfires, heat waves,
     pest outbreaks; poleward spread of tropical diseases
   – avoiding “dangerous” human interference is no longer
     possible: we’re experiencing “dangerous” now
Global average T as recorded by thermometers




                             NASA Goddard Institute
We know what’s
causing it.
Top panel shows best
estimates of human
& natural forcings
1880-2005.
Bottom panel shows
that state-of-the-art
climate model, when
fed these forcings,
reproduces almost
perfectly the last
125 years of
observed
temperatures.

 Source: Hansen et al.,
 Science 308, 1431, 2005.
Glaciers are retreating
Sea ice is shrinking
...and thinning: sea ice age at Sept minimum
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass
Harm is already occurring: floods & droughts
  Weakening East-Asia monsoon – attributed to global climate
  change -- has meant less moisture flow South to North,
  producing increased flooding in South, drought in North




                           Qi Ye, Tsinghua University, May 2006
Harm is already occurring: wildfires
Wildfires in the Western USA have increased 4-fold in the last 30 years.
Similar trends are evident in other fire-prone regions.


       Western US area burned




              Source: Westerling et al., SCIENCE, 2006
Harm is already occurring
In fact worldwide we’re seeing increases in
• floods
• wildfires
• droughts
• heat waves
• pest outbreaks
• coral bleaching events
• power of typhoons & hurricanes
• geographic range of tropical pathogens
Climate change: Where are we headed?

                                 Last time T was 2ºC
                                 above 1900 level was
                                 130,000 yr BP, with
                                 sea level 4-6 m higher
                                 than today.
                                 Last time T was 3ºC
                                 above 1900 level was
                                 ~30 million yr BP, with
                                 sea level 20-30 m
        EU target ∆T ≤ 2ºC       higher than today.
                                 Note: Shaded bands
                                 denote 1 standard
                                 deviation from mean
                                 in ensembles of model
                                 runs

                                        IPCC 2007
Where we’re headed: Heat waves
Extreme heat waves in Europe, already 2X more frequent because of
global heating, will be “normal” in mid-range scenario by 2050
                                                              Black lines are
                                                              observed
                                                              temps,
                                                              smoothed &
                                                              unsmoothed;
                                                              red, blue, &
                                                              green lines are
                                                              Hadley Centre
                                                              simulations w
                                                              natural &
                                                              anthropogenic
                                                              forcing; yellow
                                                              is natural only.
                                                              Asterisk and
                                                              inset show 2003
                                                              heat wave that
                                                              killed 35,000.

                                 Stott et al., Nature 432: 610-613 (2004)
Where we’re headed: Agriculture in the tropics
    Crop yields in tropics start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-
    1.5°C




                                                 Easterling and Apps, 2005
Where we’re headed: droughts
  Drought projections for IPCC‘s A1B scenario




   Percentage change in average duration of longest dry period, 30-year
   average for 2071-2100 compared to that for 1961-1990.
Where we’re headed: Oceans acidifying as well as
warming
         pH history and “business as usual” projection

                                           Red line is global annual
                                           average; blue lines show
                                           ocean-to-ocean and
                                           seasonal variation.




        Surface ocean pH has already
        fallen by 0.1 pH unit. Projected
        additional changes are likely to
        have large impacts on corals and
        other ocean organisms that make
        skeletons/ shells from calcium
        carbonate.
What might happen: Tipping points
• If Arctic sea ice disappears entirely and doesn’t
  re-form, climate of N hemisphere would change
  drastically.
• Tundra & permafrost are warming & thawing, with
  potential for CO2 and methane outpouring that
  would accelerate climate disruption overall.
• Rapid ice-sheet disintegration (1-2 m per century
  sea-level rise) possible for ∆Tavg ≥ 1.5ºC.
Sea level could rise 1-2 meters by 2100,
3-12 m in the next few hundred years,
up to 70 m eventually.



                                             What would 1-70 m of sea-
                                             level rise do to your region?




                 Courtesy Jeffrey Bielicki, Kennedy School of Government
What are our options?
There are only three:

• Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace
  & magnitude of the changes in global climate being
  caused by human activities.

• Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the
  adverse impacts on human well-being resulting
  from the changes in climate that do occur.

• Suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided
  by either mitigation or adaptation.
Mitigation possibilities
CERTAINLY
• Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases & soot
  from the energy sector
• Reduce deforestation; increase reforestation &
  afforestation
• Modify agricultural practices to reduce emissions
  of greenhouse gases & build up soil carbon
POSSIBLY
• “Geo-engineering” to create cooling effects
  offsetting greenhouse heating (white roofs...)
• “Scrub” greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
  technologically
Adaptation possibilities include…
• Changing cropping patterns
• Developing heat-, drought-, and salt-resistant
  crop varieties
• Strengthening public-health & environmental-
  engineering defenses against tropical diseases
• Building new water projects for flood control &
  drought management
• Building dikes and storm-surge barriers against
  sea-level rise
• Avoiding further development on flood plains &
  near sea level
   Some are “win-win”: They’d make sense in any case.
Mitigation & adaptation are both essential
• No feasible amount of mitigation can stop climate
  change in its tracks.
• Adaptation efforts are already taking place and
  must be expanded.
• But adaptation becomes costlier & less effective
  as the magnitude of climate changes grows.
• We need enough mitigation to avoid the
  unmanageable, enough adaptation to manage
  the unavoidable.
How much mitigation is enough?
• 550 ppmv CO2-e (50% chance of ∆Tavg < 3 C)
  looks unlikely to avoid unmanageable change
• 450 ppmv CO2-e (50% chance of ∆Tavg < 2 C)
  would be more prudent (but still no guarantee)
• Achieving 450 ppmv requires that...
  – global emissions level off by ~2020 and
    decline thereafter to ~50% below 2000
    emissions by 2050.
  – emissions in USA & other industrial countries
    level off by 2015 and decline thereafter to
    ~80% below 2000 emissions by 2050.
The essential steps in climate policy
• Remove barriers to “win-win” solutions
   – lack of information, perverse subsidies & regulations
• Put a price on GHG emissions
   – tax or cap-and-trade, to make costlier solutions pay off
• Increase investments in energy-technology
  research, development, demonstration (ERD&D)
   – 2-4x increase in public direct expenditures + tax
     incentives for increased private effort
• Expand partnerships (public-private, internat’l) for
  deploying advanced energy technologies
   – include internat’l fund for low- and no-carbon options
• Achieve a new global agreement for mitigation
  and adaptation in the post-2012 period
   – aimed at declining global emissions by 2020 &
     including compensation for avoided deforestation
Congress and Copenhagen
• What’s needed from Congress is legislation that
  will get the USA on a path to level off emissions
  by 2015 and decline steadily thereafter.
• What’s needed at the Copenhagen Conference
  of the Parties to the 1992 UN Framework
  Convention on Climate Change is a global
  agreement under which developing countries
  agree to join industrialized nations on declining
  emissions trajectories no later than 2025.
    There’s little chance the latter will happen
    unless the former does.
The Obama administration’s strategy
• Promote recognition that this isn’t “climate
  change policy versus the economy” but “climate
  change policy for the economy”.
  – costs of action, for the USA and the world, will be far
    smaller than costs of inaction
  – we can reduce costly and risky oil imports and
    dangerous air pollution with the same measures we
    employ to reduce climate-disrupting emissions
  – the surge of innovation we need in clean-energy
    technologies and energy efficiency will create new
    businesses & new jobs and help drive economic
    recovery, growth, and global competitiveness.
Obama administration strategy (continued)
• Work with Congress to get comprehensive energy-climate
  legislation that will put the USA on the needed emissions
  trajectory with minimum economic & social cost &
  maximum co-benefits.
     Waxman-Markey isn’t perfect, but it’s a good start and
     possibly can be improved in Senate and Conference.
• Work with other major emitting countries – industrialized &
  developing – to build technology cooperation and
  individual & joint climate policies consistent with “avoiding
  the unmanageable”
• Develop adaptation strategies and capacities domestically
  and internationally to “manage the unavoidable”.
Can we get it done? Polls say “Yes, we can.”




   http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/dec07/CCdigest/CCgraph1.htm
Climate connections to national security
Climate change itself can have impacts on…
• types of missions security forces must perform
• effectiveness of troops & equipment in combat
• international tensions increasing chance of conflict
Remedies for climate change may increase…
• tensions/vulnerabilities from energy dependencies
• access of states & terrorists to nuclear weapons
• international cooperation (reducing tensions)
Both impacts and remedies could reduce…
• funding for forces and readiness
Climate-security connections (continued)
Impacts of climate change on types of missions
• floods, droughts, wildfires, powerful storms, pest
  outbreaks    increased “civil defense” demands
• ice-free Arctic    ship traffic, resource-harvesting
  operations      increased patrol requirements
Impacts of climate change on effectiveness
• complication of combat operations by increased
  heat, dust, mud, storms, flooding…
• impacts on troop health by worsened disease
  environment (malaria, dengue…)
• impacts on viability, effectiveness of bases
Climate-security connections (continued)
Impacts of climate change on tensions
• water shortages in international river basins
  increased disputes & tensions
• ice-free Arctic tensions over ownership of and
  access to undersea resources there
• suffering   civil disorder, government instability
  oppression, external conflict as a distraction
• suffering    large flows of environmental refugees
  civil disorder, reaction-intervention
• disputes & tensions over responsibility and
  compensation for climate-change damages