Exercise on quantitative risk assessment

							        HW 4: Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management (35 points)

Due: Friday October 12, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Instructions: Please complete answer the following questions and submit through DEN
online via the "View/Complete" assignment link.
File Naming Convention: LastName_Firstname_HW4.doc
Contact person: csci577@usc.edu




List the top N risks that may prevent your team from delivering customer satisfactory
product. Try estimating the probability of each risk and assessing its possible influence
quantitatively. When the influences can’t be quantified, you may also provide
qualitative description of the influences. Please be specific about your risks.

Provide the risk management plans including the responsible person for each risk.

Hint: The typical strategies to deal with risks are: Buying information, Risk avoidance,
Risk transfer, Risk reduction, and Risk acceptance.
http://greenbay.usc.edu/csci577/fall2007/site/coursenotes/ec/charts/ec-18.ppt

Template: Use the following template to answer the question

Risk description
Risk Name        Description




Quantitative risk assessment
Risk Name            Probability   Possible influence




Risk management plan
Risk Name         Before risk occurs (you plan to)                  Responsible person




Risk Name            If risk occurs (you can)                       Responsible person
As an example of quantitative assessment of risk:
The following tables show three risks by providing the risk name, description (including
possible result), occurrence probability, and the possible influence over development
effort.

Risk description
Risk Name                    Description
1) Requirement change        The user requires more capabilities after experiencing the
                             prototypes.
2) User interface            The GUI mismatches the customers’ needs. And that will result
mismatch                     in rework.
3) COTS capability           The selected COTS don’t support the customers’ requirement
                             R1 as expected. And the team has to write more source code to
                             implement R1.
4)

Quantitative risk assessment
Risk Name                  Probability   Possible influence
1) Requirement change      20%           50 man-hours extra effort to implement the new
                                         requirements
2) User interface            30%         30 man-hours extra effort for rework
mismatch
3) COTS capability           10%         80 man-hours extra effort to implement the
                                         desired feature R1.
4)

Risk management plan
Risk Name                      Before risk occurs (you plan to)               Responsible
                                                                              person
1) Requirement change          Develop detailed prototypes early. Conduct     Person A, B,
                               win-win negotiation with the client. Do cost   C
                               estimation and manage the clients’
                               expectations.
2) User interface mismatch     Develop GUI prototypes.                        Person A
3) COTS capability             Prototype the COTS early.                      Person A
4)

Risk Name                      If risk occurs (you can)                       Responsible
                                                                              person
1) Requirement change          Develop the new requirement. Drop some         All team
                               other low priority features to ensure the      members
                               delivery time.
2) User interface mismatch     Rework the product                             All team
                                                                              members
3) COTS capability             Develop this feature R1 from scratch. Or,      Person B
                               change to use other COTS.
4)