NOAA Leadership Seminar PPBES Case Study by whq15269

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									        NOAA Leadership Seminar

           PPBES Case Study:
NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program

                 Fred Toepfer
   Environmental Modeling Program Manager
                      &
 Deputy Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
                                                       1
                 Outline

• Program Overview
• EMP and the PPBES
• Where do we go from here?




                              2
                        Why NOAA Uses Models
                  Impact of Models on GPRA - Day 1 Precipitation
                                     Scores
               0.35
                         Forecasters Add Value

                0.3

               0.25                                                                   Human(HPC)
Threat Score




                0.2                                                                   ETA
                                                   Models provide basis for           Linear
               0.15                                improvement
                                                                                      (Human(HPC))
                                                                                      Linear (ETA)
                0.1

               0.05

                 0
                   91


                           93


                                    95


                                              97


                                                        99


                                                                   01


                                                                                 03
                19


                        19


                                 19


                                           19


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                                                                                                     3
        Key Roles
Data Assimilation and Processing




                                   4
               Program Overview
              Mission Requirements
Provide models, and model-based forecast guidance products which:
    •   Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to the economy resulting from
        environmental conditions,
    •   Integrate science and environmental understanding and prediction
        capabilities across NOAA mission goals, programs, and activities,
    •   Provide a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA's Integrated Observing
        System Investment,
    •   Advance decision support services, aid forecasters, and educate
        stakeholders,
    •   Ensure the sustainable use of resources to balance competing uses of
        ecosystems,
    •   Improve the quantification, understanding, and predictability of climate
        change,
    •   Support sound decisions on aviation, marine, and surface navigation.
                                                                                   5
                  Program Overview
                     Customers
• NOAA’s Four Mission Goals:
   –Climate Mission Goal Programs
   –Commerce and Transportation Mission Goal Programs
   –Ecosystem Goal Programs
   –Weather & Water Mission Goal Programs
• External:
   –   DTRA, AF & Navy,
   –   DOE,
   –   FAA,
   –   Other National Weather Services
   –   Academia
• Commercial Weather Services and other commercial
  interests


                                                        6
                  Environmental Modeling
                   Program - Capabilities
                                                                  Observing
                                                     Observing      System
  External                                            System      Investment
  Modeling                                            Studies      Guidance
   R&D

                                                    Ecosystem      Ecosystem
                                                    Forecasting   Management
 Modeling               Development                  (Future)      Guidance
 Technique                  Test
   R&D                   Transition
                                                    NOS & NWS      Numerical
                                                     Operations     Forecast
                                                                   Guidance
        T2A              Implementation
       Decision             Decision

                                               Climate &Weather     Research
 Scientific            Engineering                 Research          Results
Development            Development
                                                   Apply Models
                      High Performance Computing                               7
The Environmental Forecast Process

             Observations             Data
                                   Assimilation
               Analysis

            Model Forecast
                                   Numerical
       Post-processed Model Data   Forecast
                                   System

              Forecaster


        User (public, industry…)                  8
                          Program Overview


Outcome: An Integrated Environmental Modeling and Data Assimilation
   System that:
    •   Meets ALL of NOAA’s Needs
         • From research to operations
         • From estuary to ocean to weather prediction to climate change
         • Is extensible to ecosystems as science matures
    •   Achieves quality consistent with the state-of-the-science and
        customer requirements – in cost-effective manner
    •   Supports the timely and reliable delivery of NOAA’s products and
        Services
    •   Provides a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA’s Observing System
        Investment


 Ensure U.S. Environmental Models are the World’s Best
                                                                               9
          Program Management

• EMP is a Matrix Program
• Oversight Responsibility – NWS
• Steering Group (Members designated by LO)
  –   NWS – Louis Uccellini – Director NCEP
  –   OAR – Ants Leetmaa – Director, GFDL
  –   NESDIS – Al Powell - Director, ORA)
  –   NOS – Marie Colton, - NOS Technical Director
  –   CIO, Carl Staton, - NOAA CIO
• Program Manager – Fred Toepfer

                                                     10
              Key Team Members

• NWS                            • OAR
                                   – Brian Gross – GFDL
  –   Fred Toepfer - EMC
                                   – Stan Benjamin – ESRL
  –   Paul Dallavalle – MDL          GSD
  –   Will Shaffer – MDL           – Alan Leonardi – OSS (prior
                                     part-time coordinator until
  –   Sreela Nandi – OS&T            May)
      (new coordinator – part-
      time)
                                 • NESDIS
                                   – Jim Yoe - JCSDA
• NOS                              – Stan Wilson – NESDIS Senior
                                     Scientist
  – Mary Erickson - CSDL
                                 • NOAA OCIO
  – Frank Aikman – CSDL            – Bill Turnbull – Deputy CIO
  – Mark Vincent – CO-OPS          – Mike Kane


                                                                   11
              Program Funding Summary
                       FY 2009


       ($M)              FY06       FY07     FY08      FY09     FY10      FY11      FY12        FY13


Current Resources        72900     83967 85667 85667 85667 85667 85667                          85667

100% Requirement                                      297974    308549    317226    325145      332535



   Gap** (+/-)                                        212,307   222,882   231,559   239,478     246,868




                                                                                                          12
 •** Table should be considered preliminary since gap/requirement validation is underway now.
              Key NOAA Modeling
                   Activities
•   Earth System Modeling Development
•   Long-term Climate Modeling
•   Short-term Climate Modeling – Research
•   Short-term Climate Modeling – Operations
•   Ocean Modeling
     – Modeling Technique Research and Development
     – Transition & Implementation Modular Ocean Model (MOM)
     – Transition & Implementation Hybrid Coordinate Ocean
       Model (HyCOM)
     – Real Time Ocean Forecast System - Atlantic Operations
     – Ocean Data Assimilation -
•   Wave Modeling
•   Land Modeling
•   Coastal and Estuary Tide and Current Modeling
•   Storm Surge Modeling
                                                               13
              Key NOAA Modeling
                   Activities
• Atmospheric Modeling
  – Global Model Research & Development
  – Global Forecast System Operations
  – Global Modeling (Ensembles)
  – North American Ensemble Forecast System – NOAA &
    Canadians (Navy Future)
  – Mesoscale Modeling
      •   North American Model
      •   Rapid Refresh Model
      •   Short Range Ensemble Forecast System
      •   Hurricane Model
      •   Fire Weather – EMC
  – Post Processing

                                                       14
                Program Activities

• Computing Operations and Management
   –   Operational Computing Acquisition and Management
   –   R&D Computing Acquisition and Management
   –   R&D Computing (Management Integration)
   –   NOAA HPC Computing (Oversight
• Communications Infrastructure
   – Operational Computing
   – NOAA R&D Computing Communication
   – NOAA Operations - Internet 2 Access
• Computing Infrastructure
• Advanced Computing Technique Development
   – ESMF
   – Advanced Computing Techniques


                                                          15
               Program Activities
• Data Assimilation System Development
   – Atmospheric Data Assimilation System
   – Land Data Assimilation
   – Ocean Data Assimilation
• Data Assimilation Technique Development
   –   Satellite
   –   Radar
   –   Land
   –   Advanced Technique Development (not data or instrument
       specific)
• Observing System Studies

                                                                16
           Program Activities
            Proposed Future
• Ecosystem Forecasting
  – Ecosystem Model Integration (Physical &
    Biological) Joint With Ecosystems
  – Transition to operations
  – Operations
• Space Weather Forecasting
  – Transition to Operations
  – Operations



                                              17
               Program Performance
                     Metrics
           Corporate/GPRA                                 Program
GPRA – 24 Hour Precipitation Forecast      24 hour Precipitation Forecast Accuracy
Accuracy (Forecaster)                      (model)
GPRA – Wave Forecast Accuracy              72 hour Index (model)
(Forecaster)
GPRA – Winter Storm Warning Accuracy       5-Day 500MB Anomaly Correlation
and Lead Time                              Future: Winter Storm Accuracy (Model)
                                           Variance in Long-term Climate
                                           Projections
GPRA - 48 hour Hurricane Track Error       Average 48 hour Track Error (model)
at Landfall (Forecaster)
New GPRA – 48 hour Hurricane Intensity Average error of 48 hour Hurricane
Forecast Error (Forecaster)            Intensity Forecast (model)
Aviation 1000’ Ceiling Forecast Accuracy   Aviation Ceiling Forecast Accuracy
(Forecaster)                               (model)

                                                                                     18
                     EMP Gaps/Alternatives
                    Goal Objectives Supported
                                           W&W   Climate   C&T     Eco-
      Gap/Alternative                                            systems

Improve Hurricane Intensity
Forecast/Storm Surge/Coastal               YES             YES
Inundation
IOOS Modeling and Analysis                 YES    YES      YES    YES
Support To Climate Predictions and
Projections (Computing, Model Guidance,           YES             YES
Re-forecasting)
Support to Commerce and Transportation
- Aviation High Impact                     YES             YES    YES
- Wave Modeling
Accelerate NWP                             YES    YES      YES
Data Assimilation                          YES    YES      YES    YES
Post Processing for Forecast Uncertainty   YES    YES             Future
Ecosystem Forecasting (including HAB)                             YES
Space Weather Models Transition &          YES
Operations
Land Modeling                              YES    YES      YES   Possible   19
Environmental Modeling Program
               &
Program Planning, Programming,
    Budgeting and Execution




                                 20
        Environmental Modeling
        Multi-dimensional Matrix
• Provides a Core NOAA Mission Capability -
  Analyses and Prediction
• A challenge and a strength of the program is
  its breadth
  – Includes multiple Line Offices and Organizational Units (diff
    cultures)
  – Serving all four Mission Goals
  – Several disciplines; atmosphere, water, climate
  – Long and short time scales: from hours to decades
  – Crosses Research, Development, Operations (different
    cultures)


    Life in the matrix: “It’s not for sissies” 
                                                                    21
           Progress in the Matrix
• Building pathways for communication and trust
  across the matrix (NOAA)
   – Takes time and effort
   – Is essential to innovative and corporate thinking
• Getting Buy-In
   – Use of a Steering Committee to involve science experts and
     managers in program decisions
• Articulating critical issues and strategies to address
  them
   – To Senior Managers
   – To the Team


                                                                  22
               Making Progress

• Integrated Planning
  – Cross Organization
  – Cross Discipline
• Integrated Capabilities
  – Core Technologies Supporting Multiple Missions
     • Data Assimilation and Analysis
     • Global Prediction (the Earth System Model)
  – Enables Mission-Unique Extensions
     • Ecosystem Forecasting begins with an Integrated Multi-
       time Scale Physical Ocean Model


                                                                23
           On-going Program
          Management Initiatives
• Weather Research Model (WRF) Program Implementation
   – Inter-Agency Agreement
   – WRF Develop Test Center Partnership
• Integrated Ocean Observing System - Modeling and Analysis
  Sub-system Definition
• Tri-Agency (Navy, NOAA, Air Force) Development of the
  National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
• Navy-NOAA Partnership for Operational Ocean Modeling
• Next-Generation Global Modeling System and Earth System
  Model
• NOAA High Performance Computing NOAA Administrative
  Order (NAO) Implementation
• Integrated Planning with Ecosystem Goal toward an
  “operational” Ecosystem Forecast System

                                                              24
                    Successes?
• R&D HPC – Acquisition and Management
   – HPC Board
   – NOAA Ownership of Assets
• Enhanced Partnerships with other Agencies
   – More poised to articulate NOAA’s goals and gaps – Speak
     with One-voice
   – Bring stronger group to discussions
• Program Manager: Having a “face” for NOAA’s
  Modeling
   – Sort through territorial games
   – Represents Program to Senior Management
   – Provides program management leadership


                                                               25
         Where we want to go

• The world’s best Earth System Forecast is a
  NOAA-led National Effort
• Elevate NOAA’s National Computing Posture
• Elevate Environmental Modeling to a Cross-
  goal Enabling Program
  – Improving NOAA’s Mission Capabilities Requires
    Improving Models
  – Need to re-look at NOAA’s investment portfolio
    between Observations, Computing, and Modeling
    to Maximize Return on the Total Investment

                                                     26
Back-ups




           27
               WRF Management
• Multi-agency (NOAA, AF, Navy?, NSF, FAA)
  Memorandum of Agreement for management and
  evolution of WRF Program
   – Empowers Program Manager and Steering Group
   – Guides Evolution of WRF Model
• Joint Project Agreement for WRF DTC
   – Defines scope, authority, and functions of WRF DTC
   – Defines funding requirements, sources, and priorities
• Funding source identified for FY2007
• Fy2009 initiative to get WRF DTC in NOAA budget as
  a line item

                                                             28
           IOOS Modeling and
               Analysis
• Working with IOOS project management and
  Goal lead to define NOAA-related IOOS and
  Modeling
  – 2 page preliminary draft white-paper prepared
    describing intersection of IOOS modeling and
    analysis and NOAA EMP
  – All IOOS M&A not in NOAA
     • Some Ocean and Coastal Ocean Model Development
  – All NOAA IOOS-related Modeling not in EMP
     • Ecosystem Modeling Research
     • Ecosystem Modeling Development


                                                        29
            EMP Proposed
           NOAA IOOS M&A
• Global Ocean Physical Ocean Observing,
  Analysis, and Prediction System Back-bone
• Coast and coastal ocean physical modeling
  back-bone extensions
• Operational Ecosystem Forecasting Back-
  bone (built on above)
• Community Modeling Test-bed
• Observing System Evolution Capability to
  maximize return on NOAA and IOOS
  investments

                                              30
       Environmental Modeling Program
        & IOOS Modeling and Analysis
• NOAA funds and operates     • IOOS Focus:
  ocean and coastal ocean       – Integration of Modeling
  physical and ecosystem          Activities (within NOAA
  backbone model (including       and with IOOS
  ODA) system to meet NOAA        Community
  requirements:
                                – Observing System
   – Climate Prediction and       Design Activities
     Projection
                                – Outreach to broader
   – Marine Transportation        IOOS Community
     and Safety
                                   • RA and Community
   – Global Weather and              Test-bed Activities
     Hurricane Forecasting         • Extensions to support
   – Ecosystem Management            IOOS Societal Goals

                                                             31
        National Unified Operational
           Prediction Capability
• Tri-agency (NOAA, Navy, AF) effort to integrate and
  leverage our individual investments in atmospheric
  modeling
• Directed at agency head level
• Tiger-team established to develop and analyze 3
  alternatives for a NUOPC
   – NOAA team includes Fred Toepfer, Julian Wang, Mark
     Iredell, Al Powell
• Recommendation due Dec 31, 2006.
• Initial step: define alternatives to be evaluated –
  August 9 and 10

                                                          32
          NOAA-Navy Ocean
         Modeling Partnership
• Directed in NOAA response to SAB on ocean
  modeling – Ocean Modeling Action Plan
  – Environmental Modeling Program action
  – NOS Technical Director Lead
• OAR support and liaison: Julian Wang
• Status review in preparation for AA’s and
  DUS



                                              33
               Global Modeling
• Purpose: Integrate NOAA’s Global Modeling
  efforts
  – Environmental Modeling Workshop held January,
    2006
  – 5 Areas identified for further development -
     •   Strategic Plan and management
     •   Infrastructure
     •   Research and Development Agenda
     •   Test-beds
     •   Communication
• Follow-up being scheduled for this fall

                                                    34
           Environmental Modeling
            HPC Responsibilities
• SECTION 3. POLICY.
   – .02 The NOAA Environmental Modeling Program (EMP) will
     manage NOAA’s HPC through an HPC Board to meet
     NOAA’s goals and subgoals.
• SECTION 4. RESPONSIBILITIES.
   – .01 The Environmental Modeling Program Manager and the
     NOAA Chief Information Officer (CIO) are responsible for
     implementing this Order.
   – .02 The CIO, or a designee (subject to the concurrence of
     the EMP Program Manager), will chair the HPC Board.




                                                                 35
              Environmental Modeling
               HPC Responsibilities
• SECTION 4. RESPONSIBILITIES. (cont.)
  – .03 The Environmental Modeling Program will:
     • establish and appoint the HPC Board;
     • provide prioritized and funded requirements to the HPC Board;
     • have oversight to ensure that HPC has been used in accordance with
       NOAA’s goals and subgoals and priorities;
     • promote and support the use of HPC to non-traditional HPC users
       across NOAA;
     • work with the affected Mission Goal Leads, with the support of the HPC
       Board, to satisfy Mission Goal requirements that are identified outside
       the scope of the EMP; and
     • ensure that additional cost associated with requirements emanating
       from programs other than EMP shall be funded by the program to which
       the requirements are attributable.



                                                                                 36
                 HPC Management
                 Proposed Actions
• HPC Board working to develop and implement R&D
  HPC integrated management policy and procedures
• Environmental Modeling Program SG will meet
      • Review/Approve charter & Membership of reconstituted HPC
        Board
      • Establish R&D Computing Allocation Board
      • Establish initial FY2007 allocations and priorities (Funded
        Requirements)
      • Agree to Project Managers
• Quarterly Review to ensure FY2007 activities and
  milestones adequately supported; readjust
  allocations and priorities as required
• Review allocation with Goal and sub-Goal Leads

                                                                      37
         Proposed R&D HPC Projects
                for FY2007
•   Advanced Data Assimilation        •   Next-generation ocean model
    Research and Development              research and development
•   Climate Test Bed                  •   Observing System Research
•   ESMF and Software                     and Development
    infrastructure Development        •   Re-forecasting Research and
•   High Performance Computing            Development
    Grants to NOAA Labs               •   Global Reanalysis
•   Hydro-meteorological Test Bed     •   Regional Reanalysis
•   Joint Center for Satellite Data   •   Seasonal Climate Modeling
    Assimilation                          Research and Development
•   Long-term Climate Model           •   Seasonal Climate Model
    Research & Development                Calibration
•   Long-term Climate Scenario        •   WRF Rapid Refresh Research
    Generation                            and Development
•   Long-term Climate Scenario        •   WRF DTC
    Analysis                          •   WRF DTC Computing Grants
•   Next generation Global
    Atmospheric Model Research
    and Development
                                                                        38
            EMP Gaps by Capability
         FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012                           FY2013

MOE        15,892       16,812       18,154        19,488        21,488

DTT        17,075       17,825       18,060        18,145        18,085

SDE        20,975       23,625       24,225        26,125        27,575

OBR        13,415       14,370       14,870        14,870        14,870

CRE       144,950      150,250      156,250       160,850       164,850

          212,307      222,882      231,559       239,478       246,868

MOE=Operations; DTT=Development, Test, & Transition; SDE=Scientific Development
& Evaluation; OBR=Observations Research; & CRE=Computing Resource
                                                                                  39
            EMP Priorities
          Aligned With AGM
1. Hurricane Intensity (w/DTC)
2. IOOS Ocean Modeling, ODA, Community
   Modeling Test-bed, and IOOS Observing
   System Evolution
3. Ecosystem Forecasting
4. Accelerate NWP Guidance
5. Forecast Uncertainty



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