Narcotics Task Force Case Study

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					                   Texas Narcotics Control Program Case Study
                                      *****
                                   A Statistical Policy Exercise


Purpose of the Study

The Texas Narcotics Control Program (TNCP) is administered by the Criminal Justice Division of
the Governor’s Office. Its mission is to distribute federal Byrne funds in the form of annual grants
to 49 multi-jurisdictional drug task forces charged with drug interdiction and the arrest and
prosecution of drug dealers.

These drug task forces are variously administered by police departments, sheriff’s departments,
and prosecutors’ offices, involve multiple agency participation, and range in jurisdiction from as
few as one to as many as 18 of Texas’ 254 counties.

The Database

Task force commanders submit routine reports to TNCP that provide statistical information on
various performance measures including:

       The amounts and dollar value of various drugs they have directly seized and/or assisted
        other agencies in seizing,

       Numbers of felony and misdemeanor arrests they have made and/or assisted other
        agencies in making, and

       The dollar value of asset seizures and forfeitures

In 2001, the Criminal Justice Center, Sam Houston State University, was contracted to evaluate
the TNCP. Part of this evaluation included an assessment of the aforementioned performance
measures. To provide a context for this assessment of task force performance, a survey was
distributed to the 49 task forces commanders to gather background information on the
characteristics of the jurisdictions they enforced as well as information about their task forces’
organization, goals and priorities (cf. attached survey).

The attached database code sheet describes the 127 variables that were created from 1) the
TNCP performance data on each of the 49 task forces for the year 2000, 2) the survey of the 49
task force commanders, and 3) variables created by transformation of some of the
aforementioned variables.

The Analysis

Using the information in the TNCP Evaluation Database, formulate research questions about the
performance of the drug task force program. Tests these questions using the various statistical
techniques covered this semester. Prepare and present a 20-minute briefing on the results of
your analysis including the questions you researched, the statistical techniques you employed,
the findings of your analysis, and the conclusions you formulated.
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                     2


                                     TNCP Evaluation Database

This database includes information on the 49 multi-jurisdictional narcotics task forces including 1)
the annualized performance measures data on each task force for the year 2000, 2) background
data gathered on the task forces from a survey distributed to the 49 task force commanders in
July 2001, and 3) variables created from transformations of other variables. (ID=identification,
TF=task force, C/B=cost/benefit ratio)


        Code Name                                      Operational Definition


                                Task Force Identification Variables

  1.     name                   Generic name of the task force
  2.     id                     Project generated ID number, sequential 1 to 49
  3.     tncpid                 TNCP generated ID number, 4 to 5 digits

                                Task Force Performance Measure Variables

  4.     mari_lbs               Pounds of marijuana seized
  5.     mari_oz                Ounces of marijuana seized
  6.     mari_gr                Grams of marijuana seized
  7.     mari_$                 Dollar value ($) of marijuana seized
  8.     mari_plt               Dollar value ($) of cultivated marijuana plants seized
  9.     crack_lbs              Pounds of crack cocaine seized
  10.    crack_oz               Ounces of crack cocaine seized
  11.    crack_gr               Grams of crack cocaine seized
  12.    crack_$                Dollar value ($) of crack cocaine seized
  13.    coke_lbs               Pounds of cocaine seized
  14.    coke_oz                Ounces of cocaine seized
  15.    coke_gr                Grams of cocaine seized
  16.    coke_$                 Dollar value ($) of cocaine seized
  17.    btar_lbs               Pounds of black tar heroin seized
  18.    btar_oz                Ounces of black tar heroin seized
  19.    btar_gr                Grams of black tar heroin seized
  20.    btar_$                 Dollar value ($) of black tar heroin seized
  21.    bher_lbs               Pounds of brown heroin seized
  22.    bher_oz                Ounces of brown heroin seized
  23.    bher_gr                Grams of brown heroin seized
  24.    bher_$                 Dollar value ($) of brown heroin seized
  25.    wher_lbs               Pounds of white heroin seized
  26.    wher_oz                Ounces of white heroin seized
  27.    wher_gr                Grams of white heroin seized
  28.    wher_$                 Dollar value ($) of white heroin seized
  29.    meth_lbs               Pounds of methamphetamine seized
  30.    meth_oz                Ounces of methamphetamine seized
  31.    meth_gr                Grams of methamphetamine seized
  32.    meth_$                 Dollar value ($) of methamphetamine seized
  33.    drseiz_$               Dollar value ($) of all drugs seized
  34.    drass_z$               Dollar value ($) of assisted drug seizures
  35.    f_arrsts               Total number of felony arrests
  36.    m_arrsts               Total number of misdemeanor arrests
  37.    farst_as               Total number of assisted felony arrests
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                          3

  38.    marst_as               Total number of assisted misdemeanor arrests
  39.    assets$                Dollar value ($) of all asset seizures (fair market value at time of
                                seizure)
  40.    forfeit$               Dollar value ($) of all forfeitures (court makes this determination – not
                                necessarily in the same quarter as the seizure)
  41.    forfret$               Dollar value ($) of all asset forfeiture returns (not necessarily in the
                                same quarter as the seizure/forfeiture)
  42.    total_fu               Total TNCP grant funds received by task forces in FY 2000

                                Variables Extracted From the Survey of Task Force Commanders

  43.    sq_miles               Number of square miles in the jurisdiction
  44.    tot_pop                Total population of the jurisdiction
  45.    counties               Number of counties in the jurisdiction, 0=jurisdiction covers less than
                                1 county
  46.    airports               Number of airports in the jurisdiction
  47.    bus_term               Number of bus terminals in the jurisdiction
  48.    ports                  Number of ship ports in the jurisdiction
  49.    tot_miles              Total miles of highway (Variables 49+50+51)
  50.    reg_veh                Number of registered vehicles in the jurisdiction
  51.    bor_mex                Does the jurisdiction border Mexico: 0=yes, 1=no
  52.    bor_stat               Does the jurisdiction border another state: 0=yes, 1=no
  53.    bor_gulf               Does the jurisdiction border the Gulf of Mexico:
                                0=yes, 1=no
  54.    grd_jury               Relative to the grand jury: 0=routinely scheduled, 1=only called as
                                needed, 2=both, multiple counties in jurisdiction
  55.    gj_rtn                 Grand jury routine schedule: if variable 57=0, variable 58=0 routine in
                                all counties, if variable 57=1 or 2, variable 58=1 (as needed or a mix
                                in different counties)
  56.    trd_mari               Trend in marijuana: 1=declining, 2=about the same, 3=increasing
  57.    trd_crk                Trend in crack cocaine: 1=declining, 2=about the same, 3=increasing
  58.    trd_btar               Trend in black tar heroin: 1=declining, 2=about the same,
                                3=increasing
  59.    trd_bher               Trend in brown heroin: 1=declining, 2=about the same, 3=increasing
  60.    trd_wher               Trend in white heroin: 1=declining, 2=about the same, 3=increasing
  61.    trd_meth               Trend in methaphetamine: 1=declining, 2=about the same,
                                3=increasing
  62.    trd_mlab               Trend in methaphetamine laboratories: 1=declining, 2=about the
                                same, 3=increasing
  63.    dis_hub                Is there a major drug distribution hub in the jurisdiction? 0=yes, 1=no
  64.    wet_dry                Relative to alcoholic beverages, is the jurisdiction wet or dry: 1=wet,
                                2=dry, 3=both wet and dry counties
  65.    wet                    0=all counties are wet, 1=counties are dry or a mix of wet and dry
  66.    wd_both                0=a mix of wet and dry counties, 1=either all wet or all dry counties
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                          4



  67.    other_TF               Number of other drug enforcement programs in the jurisdiction
                                (e.g.HIDTA)
  68.    gen_narc               Whether the task force is primarily a generic narcotics TF: 0=yes
                                1=no
  69.    interdic               Whether the task force is primarily a dedicated highway interdiction
                                TF: 0=yes 1=no
  70.    career                 Whether the task force is primarily a career criminal TF: 0=yes 1=no
  71.    money_l                Whether the task force is primarily a money laundering TF: 0=yes
                                1=no
  72.    org_crim               Whether the task force is primarily an organized crime TF: 0=yes
                                1=no
  73.    train                  Whether the task force is primarily a training TF:
                                0=yes 1=no
  74.    yrs_op                 Number of years the task force has been in operation
  75.    agencies               Number of agencies participating in the task force
  76.    tot_prsn               Total number of personnel paid out of the grant
  77.    tot_agts               Total number of agents paid out of the grant
  78.    admnstr                Who administers the grant: 1=sheriff, 2=chief of police, 3=DA
  79.    adm_sher               Administered by sheriff’s dept.: 0=yes,1=no
  80.    adm_pd                 Administered by police department: 0=yes, 1=no
  81.    dogs                   Number of drug detector dogs
  82.    prosecut               Does the task force have a dedicated prosecutor:
                                0=yes, 1=no
  83.    ful_part               Is the dedicated prosecutor full time: 0=yes, 1=no, 2=no dedicated
                                prosecutor
  84.    hy_intr                Does the task force have a highway interdiction unit: 0=yes, 1=no
  85.    availty                Priority given to reducing the availability of drugs: 1=very low priority
                                to 5=very high priority
  86.    quantity               Priority given to increasing the quantity of drugs seized: 1=very low
                                priority to 5=very high priority
  87.    value                  Priority given to increasing the Value ($) of drugs: 1=very low priority
                                to 5=very high priority
  88.    n_arrsts               Priority given to increasing the number of arrests made: 1=very low
                                priority to 5=very high priority
  89.    q_arrsts               Priority given to increasing the quality of arrests made: 1=very low
                                priority to 5=very high priority
  90.    street                 Priority given to reducing street level sales: 1=very low priority to
                                5=very high priority
  91.    upper                  Priority given to making cases against upper level traffickers: 1=very
                                low priority to 5=very high priority
  92.    networ                 Priority given to destabilizing dealer networks: 1=very low priority to
                                5=very high priority
  93.    intr_ops               Priority given to interdiction operations: 1=very low priority to 5=very
                                high priority
  94.    sc_cr                  Priority given to the reduction of secondary crime: 1=very low priority
                                to 5=very high priority
  95.    demand                 Priority given to the reduction of demand fore drugs: 1=very low
                                priority to 5=very high priority
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                        5



  96.    assets                 Priority given to increasing asset seizures: 1=very low priority to
                                5=very high priority
  97.    cash                   Priority given to increasing cash seizures: 1=very low priority to
                                5=very high priority
  98.    forfeit                Priority given to increasing forfeitures: 1=very low priority to 5=very
                                high priority
  99.    pop_den                Population density of the jurisdiction: total population/total square
                                miles), (var44 / var43)
  100. veh_sqm                  Vehicles per square mile: (number of registered vehicles / total
                                number of square miles), (var 53/var43)
  101. veh_pop                  Number of registered vehicles per 1,000 population: (number of
                                registered vehicles/total population)*1,000, (var53/var 44)*1,000

                                Transformations: New variables created from some of the TNCP
                                performances measure variables and the survey variables.

  102. tmari_lb                 Total marijuana seized in lbs: conversion of mari_lbs, mari_ oz and
                                mari_gr seized to lbs seized. Conversion formula: (var 4) + (var5/16)
                                + (var6)(0.0022046). This conversion is based upon 16 oz per pound,
                                and 453. 6 grams per lb (i.e. 1 gram= 1/453.6 lbs = 0.0022046 of a lb)
  103. cb_mari                  Cost/benefit (C/B) of total marijuana seized per $10,000 in grant
                                funds: (tmari_lb/total _fu)*10,000, (var114/var42)*10,000
  104. cb_mari$                 C/B of the value of total marijuana seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (mari_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var7/var42)*10,000
  105. funds_10                 Grant funds in $10,000: (total _fu/10,000), (var42/10,000)
  106. tcc_oz                   Total crack cocaine seized in oz: conversion of crack_lbs, crack_ oz
                                and crack_gr seized to oz seized. Conversion formula: (var 9)*16 +
                                (var10) + (var11) / ( 0.0357). This conversion is based upon approx.
                                28 grams to the oz, or 1 gram=0.0357 oz
  107. cb_crack                 C/B of total crack seized per $10,000 in grant funds: (tcc_oz/total
                                _fu)*10,000, (var118/var42)*10,000
  108. cb_cc$                   C/B of the value of total crack cocaine seized per $10,000 in grant
                                funds: (crack_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var12/var42)*10,000
  109. tc_lbs                   Total cocaine seized in lbs: conversion of coke, coke_ oz and coke_gr
                                seized to lbs seized. Conversion formula: (var 13) + (var14/16) +
                                (var15)(0.0022046). This conversion is based upon 16 oz per pound,
                                and 453. 6 grams per lb (i.e. 1 gram= 1/453.6 lbs = 0.0022046 of a lb)
  110. cb_coke                  C/B of total cocaine seized per $10,000 in grant funds: (tc_lbs/total
                                _fu)*10,000, (var121/var42)*10,000
  111. cb_coke$                 C/B of the value of total cocaine seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (coke_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var16/var42)*10,000
  112. tbth_oz                  Total black tar heroin seized in oz: conversion of btar_lbs, btar_ oz
                                and btar_gr seized to oz seized. Conversion formula: (var 17)*16 +
                                (var18) + (var19) / ( 0.0357) This conversion is based upon approx.
                                28 grams to the oz, or 1 gram=0.0357 oz
  113. cb_bth                   C/B of total black tar heroin seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (tbth_oz/total _fu)*10,000, (var124/var42)*10,000
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                        6



  114. cb_bth$                  C/B of the value of black tar heroin seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (btar_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var20/var42)*10,000
  115. tbher_gr                 Total brown heroin seized in grams: conversion of bher_lbs, bher_ oz
                                and bher_gr seized to gr seized. Conversion formula: (var 21)*448 +
                                (var22)*28 + (var23) This conversion is based upon approx. 448
                                grams to the lb, and 28 grams to the oz
  116. twher_gr                 Total white heroin seized in grams: conversion of wher_lbs, wher_ oz
                                and wher_gr seized to gr seized. Conversion formula: (var 25)*448 +
                                (var26)*28 + (var27) This conversion is based upon approx. 448
                                grams to the lb, and 28 grams to the oz
  117. tmeth_lb                 Total methamphetamine seized in lbs: conversion of meth_lbs, meth_
                                oz and meth_gr seized to lbs seized. Conversion formula: (var29) +
                                (var30/16) + (var31)(0.0022046). This conversion is based upon 16
                                oz per pound, and 453.6 grams per lb (i.e. 1 gram= 1/453.6 lbs =
                                0.0022046 of a lb)
  118. cb_meth                  C/B of total methampetamine seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (tmeth_lb/total _fu)*10,000, (var129/var42)*10,000
  119. cb_meth$                 C/B of the value of total methamphetamine seized per $10,000 in
                                grant funds: (meth_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var32/var42)*10,000
  120. cb_dsz$                  C/B of the value of all drugs seized per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (drseiz_$/total _fu)*10,000, (var33/var42)*10,000
  121. cb_drass                 C/B of the value of all assisted drugs seized per $10,000 in grant
                                funds: (drass_z$/total _fu)*10,000, (var34/var42)*10,000
  122. cb_farrs                 C/B of the value of felony arrests per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (f_arrsts/total _fu)*10,000, (var35/var42)*10,000
  123. cb_marrs                 C/B of the value of misdemeanor arrests per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (m_arrsts/total _fu)*10,000, (var36/var42)*10,000
  124. tarst_as                 Total assisted felony and misdemeanor arrests:
                                (f_arrests + m_arrests), (var 35 + var36)
  125. cb_taras                 C/B of assisted arrests per $10,000 in grant funds: (tarst_as/total
                                _fu)*10,000, (var136/var42)*10,000
  126. cb_assez                 C/B of the value of assisted drug seizures per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (assets$/total _fu)*10,000, var39/var42)*10,000
  127. cb_fort$                 C/B of the value of forfeitures per $10,000 in grant funds:
                                (forfeit$/total _fu)*10,000, (var40/var42)*10,000
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                         7


                              Survey of Task Force Jurisdictions

                                         Criminal Justice Center
                                       Sam Houston State University
                                         Huntsville, Texas 77340

July 16, 2001

To:   TNCP Task Force Commanders
From: Charles M. Friel
Re:   TNPC Evaluation

As part of the TNCP evaluation being conducted by Sam Houston State University, I have been
assigned the task of conducting a statistical cost/benefit analysis of the narcotic control program.

As you well know, any direct comparison of the cost/benefit of the various task forces makes little
sense, since they differ so much in size, how they are organized, the amount of funding they
receive, and the characteristics of the jurisdictions they enforce. I call these factors “contextual
variables”, and unless these factors are controlled for, any direct comparison of the task forces
will be little more than a useless comparison of “apples with oranges.”

It is critical, therefore, that I gather contextual information on each of the task forces so that I can
control for these differences in the cost/benefit analysis. To this end, I created an Evaluation
Steering Committee (ESC) composed of nine of your fellow officers to help me identify this
needed information and develop the attached survey. Their names are included in the attached
roster.

Based upon the advice of the ESC, I am asking each task force commander to provide me with
the information on the attached survey. I know that you have more important things to do than fill
out questionnaires, but without this information I cannot conduct a controlled and fair evaluation,
one that corrects for the individual differences among the task forces.

In the interests of time I am emailing this survey to you so that you can complete it online, and
email the return. I ask that you send me the completed survey by Monday, July 23. If you have
any questions or difficulties, either call me at 936/294-1652, or email me at icc_cmf@shsu.edu, or
call Cindy Moors at 936/294-4173, email stdcsm15@shsu.edu.

I wish to thank you in advance for helping me secure this information, and hopefully it will enable
me to conduct the analysis in such a way that I can objectively identify the true cost/benefit of the
TNCP, while taking into consideration the unique differences among the various task forces.




                          Texas Narcotic Control Program Evaluation
                                            *****
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                                                         8


              Survey of Information on Task Forces and Their Jurisdictions


Name of the person completing the survey:

                                                                               Tel:

Name of your task force:

Please answer the following questions about the jurisdiction of your task force.

    1. Number of square miles?

    2. Total population?

    3. Number of counties? Enter zero (0) if your jurisdiction covers less than
       one county.

    4. Number of airports?

    5. Number of bus terminals?

    6. Number of ship ports?

    7. Number of miles of interstate highway?
         (The information needed to answer this question and Questions 8 and 9 can be readily obtained by calling the
         Area Engineer at your local office of the Texas DOT)


    8. Number of miles of US highway?

    9. Number of miles of state highway?

    10. Number of registered vehicles in the jurisdiction?
         (This information can be readily obtained from the Tax Assessor/Collector’s Office at the County Court House(s)
         in your jurisdiction, from an annual statistical report they receive from the Texas DOT)


    11. Does your jurisdiction border on Mexico? Yes                                     No

    12. Does your jurisdiction border on New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas,
        or Louisiana?        Yes          No

    13. Does your jurisdiction border on the Gulf of Mexico?
              Yes            No

    14. Relative to the grand jury, is it: check one ()

                   Routinely scheduled                      Only called as needed
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                       9


    15. Of the various drugs listed below, use a check () to indicate whether the
        problem is declining, staying about the same, or growing


                            Drug                     Declining   About the   Growing
                                                                  Same
              Marijuana
              Crack cocaine
              Black tar heroin
              Brown heroin
              White heroin
              Methamphetamine
              Methamphetamine labs
              Others: specify




    16. Is there a major drug distribution hub within your jurisdiction (e.g. Houston,
        San Antonio, border patrol check point, etc.)?

                   Yes                No

                   Specify the hub

    17. Relative to alcoholic beverages, is the jurisdiction of your task force in a
        wet or dry area?     Wet           Dry             Includes both

    18. How many other organized drug enforcement programs are operating
        within your jurisdiction (e.g. HIDTA)?
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                             10


Please answer the following questions about your task force’s organization.

    19. Which category best describes primary work of your task force (TF)?
        Check one ()


                  Primary Work of Task Force                               Check ()
           Generic narcotics TF
           Dedicated highway interdiction TF
           Career criminal TF
           Gang TF
           Money laundering TF
           Organized crime TF
           Training TF
           Other: specify


    20. Years in operation?

    21. Total number of agencies participating in your task force?

              Of the total, how many agencies are: federal                             state

              sheriffs depts.                   local police depts.            other

    22. Total number of personnel paid out of your grant?

                   Supervisors                       Agents           Attorneys

                   Civilian support personnel                         Others

    23. Number of personnel working in the task force that are not paid out of the
        grant?

    24. Who administers the task force? Check one()

                   Sheriff                Police Chief                DA

                   Other, specify:


    25. How many drug detector dogs does your task force have?
TNCP Evaluation Case Study: Charles M. Friel Ph.D.                                               11


    26. Does your task force have a dedicated prosecutor?

         Yes                No                 If yes, is the prosecutor(s): check one ()

         Full time                    Part time

    27. Does your task force have a dedicated highway interdiction unit?

                   Yes                No

                   If so, how many officers are dedicated to this effort?

    28. Check () the priority given by your task force to each of the goals listed
        below. Rate each goal on the 5-point scale where 1=very low priority and
        5=very high priority.



                                 Goal                                    Priority
                                                             1      2       3       4        5
           Reduce the availability of drugs
           Increase the quantity of drugs seized
           Increase the $ value of drugs seized
           Increase the number of arrests
           Increase the quality of arrests
           Reduce street level sales
           Make cases against upper level traffickers
           Destabilize dealer networks
           Drug interdiction operations
           Reduce secondary crime
           Reduce the demand for drugs
           Increase asset seizures
           Increase cash seizures
           Increase asset forfeitures
           Others: specify




Thanks for your time and care in gathering this information. It will be very helpful
in analyzing the cost/benefit of the TNCP program while controlling for the
individual differences among the various task forces.