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FX Daily 26/04/2010
Overall Sentiment may be Improved
Dollar Index Trend. Dollar index retreated 0.3% in last Friday, as the
83
overall sentiment improved and trimmed the demand of USD
as safety assets. Greece Prime Minister said that the
82
agreement with EU and IMF may be reached soon, and
triggered the rebound of euro. Also, China central bank
reiterated a proactive fiscal and relative easy monetary
81
policy in IMF meeting. Both of them may further encourage
the risk appetite in FX market in this week.
80
3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
Technical. Dollar index may further consolidate within 80
and 82 in near term.
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
Trend. EUR/USD rebounded from 1.3202 (23 Apr low price)
EUR/USD
1.37
in last week, as the market concern on Greece was eased.
Greece said the financial aid will be delivered on time and
1.36
debt restructuring can be avoided. On the other hand, the
1.35
economic condition in other Euro-countries was still
1.34 improving, Germany Apr. IFO business sentiment advanced
1.33 from 98.2 to 101.6, which was higher than market consensus
1.32
(98.7).
1.31
Technical. EUR/USD finds near term support at 1.32. 14
3/26
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
days RSI (42.7) is still below 50, and a near term technical
rebound is possible.
GBP/USD Trend. GBP/USD slightly gained 0.1% in last week, as the
lower-than-expected Q1 GDP data dragged on the
1.55
momentum of GBP. U.K. Q1 GDP grew at 0.2% (QoQ),
1.53
which was lower than consensus (0.4%). Furthermore, as
the election data (6 May) is approaching; the latest
1.51
development of poll may drive near term direction of GBP.
1.49
Technical. GBP/USD may consolidate within 1.53 and 1.55
1.47 (trading range in last 2 weeks) in near term.
3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
Trend. AUD/USD weekly gained 0.4%, overall investment
AUD/USD sentiment remains as the major driver on carry trade
0.94
appetite and hence the direction of AUD. Besides the
0.93
development of Greece, S&P 500 index approached to 19
months high, which was fuelled by strong earning reports. As
0.92 of 23 Apr, 173 out of S&P 500 constituents have announced
Q1 earning reports, with overall earning growth at 34%,
0.91 which is further evidence on global economic recovery.
0.90
3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
Technical. AUD/USD may further consolidate within 0.92
and 0.94 in near term, while the uptrend remains intact.
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
Page 1 of 3
FX Daily 26/04/2010
NZD/USD Trend. NZD/USD weekly gained 1.2%, as the advance of
0.72
commodity prices supported the sentiment of NZD. Also,
RBNZ will announce rate decision on Thursday morning (29
0.71
Apr), and market expects RBNZ will hold rate at 2.5%.
Nevertheless, our economists expect RBNZ will kick off rate
hike cycle in this quarter, hence, the post meeting statement
0.70
from RBNZ may signal further future move.
Technical. NZD/USD may further consolidate within near
0.69
3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
support and resistance at 0.70 and 0.72 respectively.
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
Trend. USD/CAD weekly declined about 1.4%, as Bank of
USD/CAD
1.04
Canada signaled rate hike cycle may be started in June.
However, the decline of USD/CAD was still limited to 0.9930
1.03
in last week, on the weaker-than-expected economic data.
1.02
Canada Feb. retail sales gained 0.5%, which was lower than
consensus 1.0%. Also, March CPI grew at 1.4% from last
1.01
year, which was also lower than consensus (1.6%).
1.00
0.99
Technical. USD/CAD may further consolidate around parity
3/26
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
and 0.9930 is near term support (low price in last week).
USD/JPY Trend. USD/JPY climbs above 94 in this morning, as the
95
improving overall sentiment eased the demand of JPY as
safety assets. S&P 500 index approached to 19 months high,
94
with the strong Q1 earning announcement. Despite U.S.
93
durable good order fell 1.3% in March; the stronger-than-
expected new home sales data provided further evidence on
92
U.S. economic recovery.
Technical. USD/JPY may extend the upward momentum,
91
3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23
and may able to retest 94.79 (high price in early April).
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
Trend. USD/CHF retreated from 1.0850 in last Friday, as
USD/CHF
1.09
EUR/USD rebounded from 1.32. Easing concern on Greece
default risk supported the overall sentiment of EUR and CHF.
1.08
Ahead this week, other than Greece and Q1 earning reports,
1.07 FOMC will announce rate decision on 29 Apr (2:15 am, HK
time), with holding interest rate unchanged is expected. The
1.06
post meeting statement may drive the overall sentiment in
1.05 FX market.
1.04
3/26
Source: Bloomberg LP, SCB
4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23 Technical. USD/CHF may further retreat from 1.0850 (high
price in last Friday), as the overall sentiment is improving.
Page 2 of 3
FX Daily 26/04/2010
Performance Recap Source: Bloomberg LP, All High & Low Prices are including Intraday Data.
Forecast Daily Trading Range
Dollar Index 81.00 / 81.80 NZD/USD 0.7140 / 0.7230
EUR/USD 1.3280 / 1.3430 USD/CAD 0.9950 / 1.0030
GBP/USD 1.5350 / 1.5470 USD/JPY 93.50 / 94.50
AUD/USD 0.9250 / 0.9320 USD/CHF 1.0680 / 1.0780
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