TNS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX by giv23807

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									TNS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
SURVEY




December 2008 – January 2009

                               Tüketici Güven-1
Contents




           About Survey
           Methodological Informations
           Consumer Confidence Index Results (CCI)
               Present Situation Index
               Future (Expectations) Index
               Buying Index

           Additional Survey on the Financial Crisis
           Spending Attitudes & Intentions
                                   p
           in Various Product Groups
           Monthly Comparative Results
               In previous 1 month
               In the following month
               In the following 6 months
                             Summer Summit 2008        2
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX RESEARCH
  About Survey
  Abo t S r e

                       g               g                                y
Since 2003, TNS Global generates, through it’s offices worldwide, monthly based
“Consumer Confidence Index” data for many countries, including Turkey.
TNS Global Consumer Confidence Index, is generated by using a method similar to
 US              Board                          Index,
“US Conference Board”- Consumer Confidence Index which is regarded as the most
reliable and fundamental economic indicator in United States of America.

In addition to the existing indices compiled by TNS Global, TNS Piar has started to
collect monthly data from November 2008 on the effects of the economic crisis on
customer attitude and behaviour, which commenced in U.S.A. during autumn months,
   p
expanded to the whole world and was also p                     y      y
                                             perceived in Turkey lately.

In the report enclosed, both “Consumer Confidence Index” results generated by TNS
Global, and monthly data to measure the effects of the crisis compiled by TNS Piar,
are presented in comparison.




                                                                          Tüketici Güven-1
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
 Methodological Information

  The Customer Confidence Index Survey executed by TNS Global, is
     d t d in ll     t i through th sample groups representing th whole
 conducted i all countries th  h the    l                 ti the h l
 nation.

     Turkey
  In Turkey, TNS Piar conducts the monthly public survey within the scope of
 TrendPoll. TrendPoll’s monthly data collection is done by face-to-face interviews
 with a sample of 2,000 people representing the 18+ electorates.

  The sample is representative of Turkey’s rural-urban population regarding the
 main demographics like gender, age, social class, working conditions and
 urbanization.

  The sampling is done randomly by a multi-stage selection of households and
 quota controlled selection of respondents regarding gender, age, social class
             conditions.
 and working conditions

  Survey is conducted in 18 provinces stated below:İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir,
  u sa,      a e , a sa, e         , da a,     a ya, çe , o gu da , Samsun,
 Bursa, Kırklareli, Manisa, Denizli, Adana, Antalya, İçel, Zonguldak, Sa su ,
 Konya, Kayseri, Erzurum, Malatya, G.antep, Diyarbakır.
                                                                            Tüketici Güven-1
TNS Piar - ADDITIONAL SURVEY ON THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

  Methodological Information

                                                                    crisis,
    TNS Piar has conducted an additional survey on the financial crisis for the
  first time in November 2008, to obtain more detailed information about the
  effects of the financial crisis in Turkey. This survey has been conducted with
  18+ 600 consumers living in the cities and representing ABC1C2 socio-
                             g                     p        g
  economic group.

   The survey sample is determined by using quota variables of age, gender and
     i l l
  social class.

    Interviews are conducted by using the Computer-Aided Telephone
                      method.
  Interviewing (CATI) method

   Sample of the survey is selected from the same 18 provinces as Consumer
                         y        p
  Confidence Index Survey. These provinces are listed below:

   İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Bursa, Kırklareli, Manisa, Denizli,
   Adana, Antalya, İçel, Zonguldak, Samsun, Konya, Kayseri,
   Erzurum, Malatya, G.antep, Diyarbakır.

                                                                             Tüketici Güven-2
Consumer Confidence Index




                            Tüketici Güven-2
 TNS Consumer Confidence Index
The calculation of TNS Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is based on 6 basic
questions asked regularly each month and 5 basic macro economic variable. Through
this method, in addition to Overall Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) scores,

    a) Present Situation Index
        Indicates the evaluations concerning the present situation of the consumers, economy and the
        employment situation in the country.

    b) Future (Expectations) Index
                                                             consumers,               country,
        Indicates the estimations about how the situation of consumers economy of the country level of
        employment and theiown household income will be in the following 6 months.

     )   y g
    c) Buying Index
        Indicates consumers opinions about if the current period is convenient or not for making big
        purchases.


data are obtained.




                                                                                             Tüketici Güven-2
TNS Consumer Confidence Index

In the calculation of index scores, data - obtained from inquiries based on the
primary and secondary sources indicated below – are used. In the evaluation of
index                  i t is
i d scores, 100 points i assumed as a mean score.
                                     d
 Data obtained from primary sources (Consumer Research) :
       Perception towards Turkey’s current economic situation
       Perception towards Turkey’s economic situation in the following 6 months
       Evaluation about current level of employment
                                    p y                    g
       Evaluation about level of employment in the following 6 months
       Income expectations towards the following 6 months
       Evaluation of today’s conditions for purchasing various product groups

 Macro economic indicators obtained from secondary sources:
       GDP
       Consumption Index
       Unemployment rate
       Stock index
       Inflation rate



                                                                                  Tüketici Güven-2
  CCI – Consumer Confidence Index
                                                                                             December.
                                    Declining tendency in Confidence Index also continues in December USA still has the
                                    lowest index score, and the mean score of EU follows USA.
                                    In December, a decrease in the Index score of Turkey Index value compared to
                                    November is observed. In Turkey, Consumer Confidence Index score is nearly at the
                                    same l    l         d UK.
                                          level as EU and UK
                                           In Turkey, the highest CCI score -120- in August 2007 – right after the General
                                           MP Elections-, drew back to 67 in December 2008.
 35
135



                             120                       120    118
115           114                              116                   114
                      113
                      112    112
              110            108   110
                                   108   109   109            108
              106
              105     107    106         107   107
                                               106     106                  106    105
                      104    105   104                 104    104
                                                              103    105           103                                104
                                                                     100    102
                                   100   100                                       98     98     98     98     99
                                                                                                               98     100
              97                         95                          97                   97     97     97                          96
95            94             95    94                                       94                   95
                      92                 92           91                           92
                                               89
                                               88     87      87                                        89     87            89
                                                                                                                             88            89
                                                              86     86                                               85            85
                                                                            84            82     83                                        83
                    Argentina                                                      80     81            81
                                                                                                               77     79     78
75                                                                   76                          75
                    Canada                                                                                                          71
                                                                                                        71     71     70     71     69   69
                    Turkey                                                  66                                               66           67
                                                                                   63                                 61                  64
                    UK                                                                    58                   59
55
                    USA                                                                          51     52
                    EU                                                                                                              45
                                                                                                                             38            38
35
      Ju.07
      J 07     Jul.07 Agu.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Jul.08 Agu.08 Sep.08 Oct.08 Nov.08 Dec.08
               J l 07 A 07 S 07 O t 07 N 07 D 07 J 08 F b 08 M 08 A 08 M 08 J 08 J l 08 A 08 S 08 O t 08 N 08 D 08




                                                                                                                             Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                         CCI
Present Situation Index
                                                    d t
                                 Wh consumer data which h b
                                 When                                       ll t d in last     th is    i d
                                                           hi h has been collected i l t 18 month i examined, it i
                                                                                                                 is
                                 seen that the consumers began to express their doubts about the existing conditions,
                                 especially in the first months of the year 2008.
                                               g         y
                                 The declining tendency in Present Situation Index that has started in autumn months,
              Argentina          also continues in December. The most dramatic decrease is seen in USA, where the
              Canada             financial crisis has started.
180
              Turkey                     In Turkey, there has been a decrease in the Present Situation Index results
160
              UK                                       November
                                         compared to November.
              USA

140
                  125             123
       117   120 118 116 120 114 119 124     115
                                                   119 117
                                                             114
120                                   121
                                        111 109 120 117            109 110 106 108 107
          115 118 114 113
            106 117         105                            112 111                                     103
          110         110       110                 98 100 99                                  108
       97                 103 100                                      103   104 101              97
100                                   98         97                                      99
          96    93    96  96    95         96
                                                                    83    86    85                   94          92
                                      91   89         88
                                                      87                              81    81             90
                                                 86
                                                           82                                           76
80                                                               78    78
                                                           77                                     67          65 84
                                                                 70          72
                                                                       63          66    66
60                                                                                             62
                                                                             56    56    55          56
                                                                                               52          52
                                                                                                                 47
40
                                                                                                                           37     36
                                                                                                                                         25
20
      Jun.07 Jul.07 Agu.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Jul.08 Agu.08 Sep.08 Oct.08 Nov.08 Dec.08



                                                                                                                                Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                            CCI
Future (Expectations) Index
                                              I all countries, a d
                                              In ll      ti      decrease i f t
                                                                          in future confidence i di t
                                                                                       fid     indicators i observed.
                                                                                                          is b     d
                                              Despite an increase in USA’s scores since October, USA is still the country
                                              with the lowest score.
                                                      y        g
                                              In Turkey, the highest level of p
                                                                              positive view towards the future in the last 18
                                              months was observed in July 2007 – when General Elections was held.
                                              Decreasing Future Confidence Index from July 2007 till today, drew back to
130                                           62 points in December 2008, which is even lower than the October 2008
                     117
                                              score.

110
                           107
            102 101          103 104           103         101
             102        99         100 100 99
       100                    97                      98          98
       96       101 99     101           106          95                            94                               96
          99                     98            104                      93    92                           93                            93
    97     97 97
          95         96            101 96    94             89                                                                 88
 90               96    96 91                      92 98 93    92 87
                              94                                     89 83 89
                                 86                         92    91          79 84 90                                                             80
                                                                              89                                     90             84
                                             81                         86          76                   86    76 81
                                                                                                      79 73 80
                                              74            74                                                                           70 77          74
                                                                                                                               78
                                                                                                                               65
 70            Argentina                                                                                                                 76
                                                                                                                          66                            62
               Canada                                              62
                                                                                                                58
                                                                                 54                                                                     62
               Turkey                                                     53
 50                                                                                     51                                                    50
               UK                                                                                     46                                                47
                                                                                               44
               USA                                                                                                                  38
 30
      Jun.07 Jul.07 Agu.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Jul.08 Agu.08 Sep.08 Oct.08 Nov.08 Dec.08



                                                                                                                                     Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                                 CCI
Buying Index
                                                      Index,       Index,                     progress.
               The third title of Consumer Confidence Index Buying Index has shown a variable progress
               The improvement trend continues in almost all countries in December 2008.
                         In Turkey, the Buying Index, which was at its highest levels right after the General Elections
                         in July 2007 and in January 2008, began to decrease afterwards and reached the lowest
                               y                   y      , g
                         score in October and November 2008. This score increased in December.



                                                                  129       129       127
  130                                                   126
                 121
         116                                  115
                           112 114
                             115                                                                111       112                                     110       112
                                                                                113
  110                                   105             102                                                         103                 102
          99         103                                              100
                                                  94        96                  94        97        96        94                  96
         95         95        92        91        94                  93                  93                                                                    93                            93
                                                                                                              88        88                            90                  90
                                                                                                                                                                                    88
                                                                                                90                                87        86                                      87         93
   90
                                   88                                                                                                                                                         84
               87                                                                                                       81        81
                         84                  84                                                                                              81 76              78        79             83
                                                       80        79                  79                                                                                                       75
                                                                           77                  78        78                  76                                                77
                    Argentina                                                                                      73
   70                                                                                                                                  71        69                       65        65
                    Canada                                                                                                                                 68        68
                    Turkey
                    UK
   50
        Jun.07 Jul.07 Agu.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Jul.08 Agu.08 Sep.08 Oct.08 Nov.08 Dec.08




                                                                                                                                                                               Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                                                                           CCI
Additional Survey on
the Financial Crisis
                         y
TNS Piar Periodical Survey

                             Tüketici Güven-2
               Evaluation of Turkey’s Economic Situation

It is seen that the negative evaluation towards current economic situation still continues in
January 2009; however, an improvement is observed in the perception about the situation in the
following 6 months.

      How would you describe Turkey’s current   What do you think will be Turkey’s economic
               economic situation?                    situation in the next 6 months?
              Mean: 2,3     Mean: 2,2               Mean: 2,4      Mean: 3,3
        100
                   5            5                         6
         90
                                                                       18
         80
                  36           35                        34
                                                                                 Very good (5)
         70
                                                                       25        Relatively good(4)
         60
         50                                                                      Neither good or bad / In the 
                  28           27                        28                      middle (3)
         40                                                            27        Relatively bad (2)
         30
                                                                                 Very bad (1)
         20
                  28           32                        23            21        Don't know/ No answer
         10
          0        1            0                         5             7
               Dec, 2008-b Jan, 2009-b2   Column1   Dec, 2008-g Jan, 2009-g2




                                                                                                 Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                             CCI
   In which spending attitudes have there been a change in the last month?
The most savings were done in the expenditures of entertainment, technology products, clothing, personal
mobile phone and appetizers.                                                      Base: Those consuming the
                                                                                                                           related product

                                                                 Decreased    Stayed the same   Increased

                  Entertainment, cinema, book, theater, eating out etc.                    62                             30           8
Purchasing of technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.                    58                              34            8
                               Expenditures such as clothing, shoes etc.                 57                              35            9
                                  Personal mobile phone expenditures                    54                          29            17
                               Appetizers, dried fruits etc. Expenditures               53                            40               7
                                  Cosmetic and personal care products                   52                            41               7
                                      Purchasing of white/brown goods                 488                            45                7
                                                              Soft drinks             47                             48                 5
                                                 Fixed line expenditures              47                          35            19
  Main food expenditures such as cheese, milk, yogurt, meat, bread etc.
  Main food expenditures such as cheese milk yogurt meat bread etc                   41                            49             10
                                           Household cleaning products             32                            58               10
                                      Internet connection expenditures        22                            68                    10
                                     Cable TV and pay TV expenditures
                                                  p y      p                  22                            69                    10
                                          Drinks such as tea, coffee etc.    20                             73                     8
                     Health expenditures such as doctor, medicine etc.       19                     58                         24
                                             Personal cleaning products      19                             74                     7


               Question 3: Could you please tell me, how your / your households expenditures changed for the following     Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                       CCI
                                                  product groups in the last 1 month?
  In which spending attitudes have there been a change in the last month?
In January, entertainment expenditures came on the top the list among all consumption categories with more
people stating that they reduce their consumption in this category. Clothing and technology expenditures follow
technology expenditures respectively.                                                Base: Those consuming the
                                                                  Decreased        Stayed the same   Increased                   related products
                Entertainment cinema book theater eating out etc
                Entertainment, cinema, book, theater, eating out etc.                         61                                 31              8
                            Expenditures such as clothing, shoes etc.                         59                                33               8
 Purchasing technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.                         56                                  38               7
                                      l bl h              d
                               Personal mobile phone expenditures                           54                             29               17
                                Cosmetic and personal care products                         54                                  42               5
                                                           Soft drinks                      53                                  42               5
                                          Appetizers, dried fruits etc.                     53                                  42               6
                                  Purchasing of White/ Brown goods                       49                                 45                   6
                                              Fixed line expenditures                  43                             40                    18
   Main food expenditures such as cheese, milk, yoghurt, meat, bread                  41                                   54                    5
                                        Household cleaning products                 35                                58                         7
                       Health expenditures such as doctor, medicine            25                          54                             22
                                           Drinks such as tea, coffee         20                                 71                              9
                                         Personal cleaning products           20                                 74                              6
                             Cable TV and other pay TV expenditures            9
                                                                              19                                 73                              8
                                   Internet connection expenditures           19                             71                                11
               Question 3: Could you please tell me, how your / your households expenditures changed for the following                Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                                  CCI
                                                  product groups in the last 1 month?
Spending Attitudes in Various Product Group In Last Month
While decrease in some expenditure groups shows various results based on different socio-economic groups,
some of them indicates similar ratios for all consumption groups. Expenditure groups showing statistically
significant changes are summarized in the graph below.
When a comparison is made between the socio-economic groups; a decrease in the expenditures on FMCG like
soft drinks such as Coke, juices, appetizers, main food products and household cleaning products is seen in both
C1 and C2 groups compared to AB socio economic group.


            100
                                                                                                O    ll
                                                                                                Overall
              80                                                                                AB
                     65      66
                   61 63   59 58       59    60    61  58
              60                   54 53 54 54 53 53 53 56                                      C1
                   51                                                50
                            47      47                       48
                                          43
                                                39
                                                           43 42 41 40        40                C2
              40                                      36    35          35 36
                                                                                   29
                                                                    22    23   25 23      23    25    25     24
                                                                                18    20 20 20 17 19     19 17
              20                                                                       14    15      16
                                                                                                   13     13


               0




                                                                                                   Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                               CCI
Spending intention in various product groups in the following month
 Consumers who have made savings in expenditures of particular product groups                                                            g
                                                                                                                    Base: Those consuming the
 in the last month, will continue to make savings in them in the following month.                                             related products


                                                                    Decreased           Stayed the same         Increased        Don't know 
 Technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.
 Technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.                           60                                       29            8   3
     Entertainment, cinema, book, theater, eating out etc.                        57                                       31             10 2
                  Expenditures such as clothing, shoe etc.                        55                                   30                14 1
                      Purchasing of White / Brown goods 
                      P h i       f Whi / B          d                        53
                                                                               3                                          3
                                                                                                                          37               7 3
                     Cosmetic and personal care products                     50                                        39                 8 3
                     Personal mobile phone expenditures                      50                                       37                 10 2
                                   Fixed line expenditures                   48                                      40                   11 2
                                                Soft drinks                  48                                        44                   6 2
                  Appetizers, dried fruits etc expenditures                  46                                      42                   8 3
             Peynir, süt, yoğurt, et, ekmek gibi temel gıda             33                                     54                        11 2
                                  Home cleaning products           29                                      59                             11 1
                        Beverages such as tea, coffee etc.          5
                                                                   25                                       4
                                                                                                           64                             10 1
                  Cable TV and other pay TV expenditures       24                                         65                              8 3
                        Internet connection expenditures       23                                         66                              8 3
                          Personal cleaning expenditures 
                          Personal cleaning expenditures      19                                          71                               9 1
             Health expenditures such as doctor,medicine      17                               57                                 19         7
                 Question 4 :According to your opinion, how will your expenditures change for the following product groups        Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                              CCI
                                                            in the next month?
Spending intention in various product groups in the following month
 Top 5 product groups in which a decrease in the following month will take place, have                                                                 g
                                                                                                                                Base: Those consuming the
 not changed in January.                                                                                                                    related product


                                                                               Will decrease        Will stay same        Will increase         Don't know
                   Entertainment, cinema, book, theater, eating out etc.                             5
                                                                                                     58                                    9
                                                                                                                                          29            11       2
  Purchasing of technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.                             57                                     35            4       3
                                      Purchasing of white/  brown goods                         52                                        41                 5   3
                                Expenditures such as clothing shoes etc
                                Expenditures such as clothing,  shoes etc.                     49                                    42                      7   2
                                   Cosmetic and personal care products                         49                                    43                  5       4
                                   Personal mobile phone expenditures                          48                                  39                   11       2
                                             Appetizers, dried fruits,  etc.                   47                                    46                      4   3
                                                                Soft drinks                    46                                    49                      42
                                                  Fixed line expenditures                      45                                  44                    9       2
      Main food expenditures such as cheese, milk, yoghurt, meat, bread                  29                                 59                          9        3
                                       Internet connection expenditures                28                                    64                          6       3
                                Cable TV and other pay TV  expenditures                27                                    66                          4       4
                                            Household cleaning products                26                                    67                              6   2
                                           Beverages such as tea, coffee             22                                    69                                7   2
                                           p
                                  Health expenditures, doctor, medicine             19                               57                           16         8
                                              Personal cleaning products            19                                    75                                 51

     Question 4: According to your opinion, how will your expenditures change for the following product groups in the next                      Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                                            CCI
                                                            month?
Spending Intentions in Various Product Groups in the following month
   Expenditure groups that are stated as there will be a decline in the expenditures in the following
   month and show statistically significant changes based on different socio-economic groups, are
   summarized in the graph below.
   Compared to AB group. both C1 and C2 socio-economic groups indicate that there will be a higher
   decrease i personal care products and main f d expenditures i th f ll i month.
   d        in       l         d t     d   i food      dit     in the following  th

                                                                                                                    Overall
                                                                                                                    AB
                                                                                                                    C1
    100
                                                                                                                    C2

     80

                       64
     60      57             55
                  51                   49        52 52
                                            39
     40
                                                                 29        31 32                        31
                                                                                         26        24                         22
                                                                      19                      19               19        18
     20
                                                                                                                    11

      0
          Technology products such  Cosmetic and personal  Main food  expenditures       Home cleaning          Personal cleaning 
              as mobile phone,     care products like cream,  such as cheese, milk,       expenditures       products like shampoo, 
           co pute , ca e a etc
           computer, camera etc.             a e up
                                           make up           yoghurt, meat, bread etc.
                                                             yog u t, eat, b ead etc                            tooth paste, soap
                                                                                                                toot paste, soap




                                                                                                                         Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                      CCI
                                            Base: Those consuming the related products
             Savings Intention in Various Product Groups
           Comparison of Last Month to the Following Month
In th b l    t bl th         dit
I the below table the expenditures on product groups that had declined last month and are foreseen to
                                            d t          th t h d d li d l t      th d       f         t
decline in the following month, are comparatively listed in order from the most declined / foreseen to
decline to the least declined / foreseen to decline product groups.
                        g priority in p
An increase in the savings p                  g
                                  y purchasing of white/ brown g                y                     y
                                                                goods is clearly visible in this survey; since this
area of expenditure rised to 3rd place among the area of savings of the following month.
                                                                                            Rank of planned
                                                               Rank of savings made in     savings in areas of
                                                                areas of expenditure in    expenditure in the
                                                                      last month            following month
                                                                 Dec, 08      Jan, 09      Dec, 08     Jan, 09
Entertainment, cinema, book, theater, eating out etc.               1            1            2           1
Technology products such as mobile phone, computer etc.             2            3            1           2
                        clothing,    etc.
Expenditures such as clothing shoes etc                             3            2            3           4
Personal mobile phone expenditures                                  4            4            6           6
Appetizers, dried fruits etc.                                       5            7            9           7
Cosmetic and personal care products such as cream, make up          6            5            5           5
P h i of White/Brown goods
Purchasing f Whit /B              d                                  7            8           4            3
Soft drinks such as Coke, fruit juices                               8            6            8           8
Fixed line expenditures                                              9            9            7           9
Main food expenditures such as cheese, milk, yoghurt, meat
bread etc
bread, etc.                                                         10           10           10          10
Household cleaning products                                         11           11           11          13
Internet connection expenditures                                    12           16           14          11
Cable TV and other pay TV expenditures                              13           15           13          12
                    tea,
Beverages such as tea coffee etc etc.                               14           13           12          14
Health expenditures such as doctor, medicine                        15           12           16          15
Personal cleaning products such as shampoo, tooth paste,soap        16           14           15          16
                                                                                                    Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                CCI
         Intention of investing and making large expenditures
                        in the following 6 months
                                                                                         postpone
While repairements in house come first in the large expenditures which consumers plan to postpone, jewellery is
an expenditure which is totally cancelled. Considerable amount of consumers do not plan to make changes in
their insurance expenditures such as health, automobile etc and education expenditures.
                                                                              Base: Those intending to purchase related products


           There will be a postponement/delay      There will be a total cancellation    There will be no changes      Don't know

                                Repairements in the house
                                Repairements in the house                    42                  14                   43            1
                                                   Furniture               35                      33                      32       0
                                                    Vacation               35                      34                      30
                                                                                                                           3        1
                                                   Auto care             33                15                    49                 4
                                            Auto purchasing             29                    31                      37            3
                                     Real‐estate purchasing             28                 28                         41            4
   Insurance expenditures  such as health,  automobile etc.          20          10                        68                       2
                                                    Jewellery         21                      49                           27       3
                                    Education expenditures          17       4                          76                          2


            Question 5: And, when you think of the following 6 months, what kind of a change do you foresee for the     Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                    CCI
                                                    following expenditures?
            Intention of investing and making large expenditures
                           in the following 6 months
                                              2009,
According to the survey conducted in January 2009 purchasing / saving plans of consumers regarding their
large expenditures, show tremendous similarities with the study conducted at the end of year 2008.

                                                                              Base: Those intending to purchase related products

            There will be a postponement/delay      There will be a total cancellation   There will be no changes     Don't know

                                   Repairement in the house                     48                   11               39           2
                                                     Furniture              36                    27                     37         0
                                                     Vacation               35                   28                   34           3
                                                    Auto care              33             13                     53                2
                                             Auto purchasing            24               28                         45             3
                                      Real‐estate purchasing            26               26                      43                5
    Insurance expenditures   such as health,  automobile etc.          21         6                        7
                                                                                                           71                       2
                                                     Jewellery         23                       49                       26        3
                                     Education expenditures
                                     Education expenditures            22        3                        74                       2

            Question 5: And, when you think of the following 6 months, what kind of a change do you foresee for the      Tüketici Güven-2
                                                                                                                                     CCI
                                                    following expenditures?
             DECREASE in CCI SCORES CONTINUES
 Consumer Confidence Index drew back to 67 points. There has been a
          decline of 4 points from November to December.

   Negative evaluations of economics and employment situation of the
country are reflected in the Present Situation Index, causing a decrease of
  11 points. The Present Situation Index drew back to 65 points from 76
                                  points.
                                  points

  In December 2008, Future (Expectations) Index decrased to 62 points
 which is even lower than the score in October 2008. This score reached
                                                                              Summary
                                  g
            it’s lowest value among 19 months in December.

 Decreasing sales price tags and shopping spirit for New Year and Sales
  resulted in a positive effect on the Buying Index. The Buying Index in
     Turkey score increased in December like in UK and Argentina.

                   OPTIMISM TOWARDS FUTURE
While the pessimism about Turkey’s current economic situation continues,
                p                                year’s first month.
        a more optimistic view exists in the new y

In the last month, spendings on entertainment, clothing and technological
 products are limited at most. Savings are made on the same five groups
 like in the previous month and the expectations for the coming month are
th same. In most of the product groups savings on expenditures come t
the          I     t f th    d t              i            dit          to
                                 a fix point.

      An increase of savings priority in purchasing of white/ brown goods
                                                   survey
                        is clearly visible in this survey.

         Savings trend in large expenditures also have not changed in
       January; House repairments, purchasing of furniture and vacation                 Tüketici Güven -2
                                                                                                    CCI
                                are still in top 3.
THANK YOU!




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