BANK HAPOALIM AND TNS TELESEKER'S ISRAELI CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX by giv23807

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									    December 2, 2008



          BANK HAPOALIM AND TNS TELESEKER’S ISRAELI CONSUMER
                          CONFIDENCE INDEX - STABILITY IN NOVEMBER


         •    Consumer Confidence Index remains at October’s low level (an increase of 0.4
              points).
         •    Deterioration in the perception of present situation.
         •    Improvement the in the perception of the future and in the shopping climate.
         •    Bank Hapoalim Economists: "The unchanged index together with expectations
              of further economic deterioration may indicate that the decrease in the CCI
              already reflects the anticipated slowdown”
         •    The current fragile economic situation may lead to volatility of the Consumer
              Confidence Index in the coming months.



    Israel’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 0.4 points in November, a minimal increase, to
    121.8 (April 2002 = 100). On the one hand we are still close to the lowest level since the
    beginning of 2006 but on the other there was no further decline. The present situation index
    recorded a decrease of 2.6 points, but the expectations index rose by 2.4 points. Shopping
    climate registered an improvement in the willingness to purchase durable goods and
    apartments in the near future.

    Bank Hapoalim Economists: “The stability of the Consumer Confidence Index (and
    even a slight increase) stands out as good news versus most economic news released
    recently. However, this one indicator is not sufficient to set a trend and one ought to
    continue following the data in the next several months”.
    The unchanged index together with expectations of further economic deterioration
    may indicate that the decrease in the CCI already reflects the anticipated slowdown.

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S. rose considerably in
    November by 6.1 points. However, this increase followed an unprecedented decline of 22.6
    points in October and the index still remains at levels that are less than half its peak. This is
    also true in the Israeli case, but the volatility in the United States is much higher.


                            Index developments over the last 12 months:

                             12/07   1/08    2/08    3/08    4/08    5/08    6/08    7/08    8/08    9/08    10/08   11/08
Consumer Confidence Index    127.0   132.4   133.4   127.7   123.2   127.6   128.2   124.3   127.8   129.2   121.4   121.8
Present Situation Index      161.0   171.1   172.4   164.8   160.1   165.5   167.6   160.2   165.9   171.1   159.6   162.2
Expectations Index           104.4   106.6   107.4   102.9    98.7   102.3   102.0   100.4   102.4   101.3    94.2    96.6



The Consumer Confidence Index of Bank Hapoalim and TNS in Israel is based on a TNS Teleseker monthly
poll covering a national sample of 1,000 respondents representing the vast majority of the adult (18+)
population of Israel. The CCI index has been published in Israel since April 2002. TNS, a leading global
marketing information group, conducts similar CCI polls in 18 countries worldwide including the conference
Board CCI in the USA and the Nationwide CCI in the UK. Numerous studies show that consumer confidence
indices are a leading indicator of developments in the private consumption of several economies.
                              Distribution of replies to the index questions (last 4 months)

       % OF SAMPLE                                                  AUGUST       SEPTEMBER     OCTOBER           NOVEMBER
       RESPONDENTS                                                   2008           2008         2008              2008

       Economic conditions-            Good                           23.6            25.6        22.2              20.8
       Current:                        Bad                            31.8            31.2        32.5              35.9
                                       Medium                         43.7            42.2        43.3              41.0
                                       Difference (1)                (-8.2)          (-5.6)      (-10.3)          (-15.1)
       Employment:                     A lot of jobs                  16.9            21.4        14.4              13.9
                                       Few jobs                       42.2            38.9        49.0              48.2
                                       Medium                         32.3            33.0        28.9              28.8
                                       Difference (1)               (-25.3)         (-17.5)      (-34.6)          (-34.3)
       Economic conditions             Better                         14.4            14.4        13.0              20.3
       expectations for six            Worse                           33             39.0        45.6              41.1
       months hence                    Same                           44.2            38.8        31.4              27.2
                                       Difference (1)               (-18.6)         (-24.6)      (-32.6)          (-20.8)
       Employment expectations         More jobs                       9.9            11.8        10.0              13.2
       for six months hence            Fewer jobs                     22.2            25.9        39.5              39.5
                                       Same                           54.7            52.1        39.2              33.7
                                       Difference (1)               (-12.3)         (-14.1)      (-29.5)          (-26.3)

       Income expectations for         Increase                       19.1            18.9         15.6              15
       six months hence                Decrease                       12.3            11.9         17.2              15
                                       Same                           62.8            63.9         62.4             62.9
                                       Difference (1)                (6.8)           (7.0)        (-1.6)             ( 0)
       Shopping climate                Good time to shop              21.3            22.0         16.3             19.9
                                       Bad time to shop               29.8            32.5         36.4             32.7
                                       Medium                         41.6            40.7         38.2             39.9
                                       Difference (1)                (-8.5)         (-10.5)      (-20.1)          (-12.8)
       Public feelings regarding       Israel is on the right way     27.2            31.8        35.2              32.7
       the nation’s general            Israel is on the wrong way     62.0            55.9        50.5              52.6
       direction                       Difference (1)               (-34.8)         (-24.1)      (-15.3)          (-19.9)




 CCI indexes worldwide remain at record lows                                  Bank Hapoalim & TNS Consumer Confidence Index
                   January 2007= 100                                                          April 2002 = 100


                                                                        140

 125
                                                                        130
 115

 105                                                                    120

  95
                                                                        110
  85

  75                                                                    100


  65
                                                                        90
  55    US- The Conference Board
        UK - Nationwide
        Canada- TNS Canadian Facts                                      80
  45
        Israel-Bank Hapoalin and TNS
                                                                              04

                                                                              09

                                                                              02

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                                                                              08

                                                                              01

                                                                              06

                                                                              11

                                                                              04

                                                                              09

                                                                              02

                                                                              07
                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0

                                                                                -0




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   01-07 04-07 07-07 10-07 01-08 04-08 07-08 10-08




Great effort was made to avoid errors when gathering the information, processing it and preparing it for publication. Bank Hapoalim
B.M. and TNS Teleseker are not responsible for mistakes that could occur, and any causative damage that could result from the use
of erroneous data.




                                                                                                     Economics Department
                                                                                                     Tel: 972-3-5675650
                                                                                                     www.bankhapoalim.co.il

								
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