Consumer Confidence Index for Turkey by giv23807

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									JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL
  DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS


                           BRUSSELS



                    14 – 15 NOVEMBER 2005


           Consumer Confidence Index for Turkey

                             Ece Oral


               Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
              Research and Monetary Policy Department




                         - November 2005 -
                           Consumer Confidence Index for Turkey

                                                 Ece Oral *


                                  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
                                Research and Monetary Policy Department




                                             Ece.Oral@tcmb.gov.tr




                                                  Abstract

The aim of this study is to give brief knowledge about the Consumer Tendency Survey (CTS)
carried out with cooperation of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the State
Institute of Statistics (SIS). The second aim is to construct a consumer confidence index by using
the questions of the CTS. The purpose of constructing the consumer confidence index is to find
out consumer tendencies and expectations for general economic course. The most appropriate
index is formed and its performance is tested in this study.




*
 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily correspond to the views of the
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
1. Introduction

Consumer behavior plays an important role in providing economic decision-makers and
economic forecasters with necessary information about future expectations. Optimistic
consumer confidence may cause desire for making large expenses and increase the tendency
for borrowing, while pessimism may cause consumers to reduce their expenditures, to review
their financial situations.
Consumer surveys provide regular assessments of consumer attitudes and expectations and
are used to evaluate economic trends and prospects. The surveys are designed to explore why
changes in consumer expectations occur and how these changes influence consumer spending
and saving decisions. They also provide the necessary data for the measurement of the
consumer confidence (Kershoff, 2000).

2. Consumer Tendency Survey and the Purpose

The State Institute of Statistics (SIS) and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) have jointly
launched a study within the framework of “Consumer Survey” Protocol in 2003. The
Consumer Tendency Survey (CTS), which is the source for the consumer confidence index,
was annexed to Household Labour Force Survey in the form of a module. The pilot study of
the survey was carried out with the aim of testing the questionnaire design and method
implemented between April 2003 and December 2003. During the pilot-test period, a number
of modifications were made in the questionnaire design and some methods were tested in
sample-selection. Following an eight-month pilot-test period, it was decided to announce the
survey results on a monthly basis.
CTS has been constructed in order to find out consumer tendencies and expectations for
general economic course, job opportunities, personal financial standing and market
developments in order to assess their expenditure behavior as well as their expectations, and
therefore deciding monthly consumer tendencies in the short-run.
CTS covers four fields in measuring consumer tendencies and expectations that are Personal
Financial Standing, General Economic Situation, Expenditures and Price Expectations.

3. Scope of Survey

The target population used for the survey is the individuals at the age of 15 and above having
a job in rural and urban areas of Turkey that provide income. Therefore, the survey covers all
individuals at the age of 15 and above who are employed as samples in Household Labour
Force Survey meeting these criteria. The frame is updated four times a year and the date of
the last update/ revision is in February 2005.
                                                 2
The survey includes all settlements (rural and urban) in Turkey. Settlements with a population
of 20 001 and over are defined as urban while settlements with a population of 20 000 or less
are defined as rural. The number of participants in the frame is approximately 7000.
Regular employee, casual employee, employer and self-employed constitute 53, 10, 6 and 31
percent of the status in employment groups in the survey, while they constitute 57, 10, 0 and
33 percent in the whole population respectively. Similarly, the participants aged 15 to 24, 25
to 34, 35 to 54, 55 and more constitute 14, 34, 43 and 9 percent of the age groups in the
survey, while they constitute 22, 30, 38 and 10 percent in the whole population respectively.
Therefore, it can be said that status in employment and age groups represent the population.
However, in income category, the population coverage cannot be attained.

4. Sampling Method

2000 individuals at the age of 15 and above having income from an economic activity were
selected from Household Labour Force Survey in December 2003, January and February 2004
to represent Turkey in general on the basis of age, income and status in employment groups.
Whole individuals at the age of 15 and above having income from an economic activity have
been interviewed at house as samples in Household Labour Force Survey since March 2004.
The average number of units included in the survey is approximately 7000. For the module,
age, status in employment and income groups have been taken into consideration in addition
to general weight of Household Labour Force Survey.
Monthly Household Labour Force Survey is carried out via a rotation system, in which 50%
new respondents and 50% former respondents being interviewed for the second time after
three months. The State Institute of Statistics' field interviewers conduct computer-based,
face-to-face interviews (CAPI) with individuals, who have been selected on basis of the
above-mentioned criteria under this rotation system.
The fieldwork starts on Monday of the first week of the month and lasts 2 weeks. The length
of the reference period to which the survey data relates, is one month. The average delay
between the end of the reference period and the date of public release of data is 22 days.

5. Data Characteristics

The first step is to convert the numbers of answers to each of the three/four/five reply options
into percentages. The percentage of positive replies (much more better, a little bit better,
increase sharply, increase slightly, very likely, fairly likely, it is right time now), unchanged
replies (remain the same, neither the right time nor the wrong time) and negative replies
(much more worser, a little bit worser, fall sharply, fall slightly, not likely, not at all likely, it
                                                  3
is not the right time now) indicate the direction of change of a variable (question). The net
balance is then calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative
responses.
Question 7 has nominal scale. All the other questions are presented in a 3, 4 or 5-point Likert
scale format. The questions of the CTS are given in Appendix.
Neither an imputation technique nor a seasonal adjustment procedure is used.

6. Weights Used in the Survey

The revised Household Labour Force Survey results are used in order to weigh the Household
Labour Force Survey. The weights used for the Household Labour Force Survey are design
weights, non-response adjustments, external control weights and final adjustment factor. For
Consumer Tendency Survey, age, status in employment and income groups are taken into
consideration in addition to general weight of Household Labour Force Survey. No additional
weighting is used in constructing the consumer confidence index.

7. Calculation Method

Indices are compiled in accordance with the balance method of European Union. The balance
is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative responses and
100 is added to this difference, thus forming a separate diffusion index for each question.
Then, the general index is calculated by taking arithmetic means of diffusion indices of the
questions included in consumer confidence index.
The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. If it is above 100, it means consumer confidence is
optimistic. If it is below 100, consumer confidence is pessimistic. 100 refers to neutral
opinion in consumer confidence.
There is no base period for confidence indicator calculated in index form.

8. Dissemination of the Survey Results

The results of the previous month are announced following the first working day of the 22nd
of     each      month       through      web       sites     of     CBRT        and      SIS,
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/tuketanket/consumereng.html and http://www.die.gov.tr respectively.

9. Consumer Confidence Index

Confidence indicators derived from business and consumer survey results are of key
importance in assessing short-term economic developments. These sentiment indicators give



                                                4
crucial information on business and consumers assessments of the current economic situation
and their intentions and expectations for the future (Nilsson, 2000).
Consumer confidence measures were formulated in the late 1940's by George Katona at the
University of Michigan as a way to include empirical measures of consumer expectations into
the models of spending and saving behavior. Katona summarized his view by saying that
consumer spending depends on both their “ability and willingness to buy.” Katona meant
discretionary purchases; the income and assets of consumers; consumers’ assessments of their
future job and income prospects by using the words "spending", "ability" and "willingness"
respectively. When consumers become optimistic they increase their spending, and when they
become pessimistic they decrease their spending and increase their precautionary saving.
The term "Discretionary purchases" is used for the things that people buy that are not the
necessities of life. There is no reason to consider that the consumer confidence should play a
role in determining the timing of necessary expenditures. Homes, vehicles, furniture,
appliances, home electronics, PCs, and other large household durables can be considered as
discretionary purchases. These are relatively infrequent and large purchases, often involve the
use of credit, and are typically planned purchases—just the type of purchases that would
critically depend on consumers’ expectations about their future economic situation (Curtin,
2002).
For constructing a consumer confidence index for Turkey, the survey questions providing
qualitative information on the current situation as well as on the expectations for the next
months are used. CTS has been conducted since December 2003 which means the number of
observations is insufficient to perform statistical analysis like cross-correlation or peak-trough
analysis. Therefore, the variables used in constructing confidence index of EU are
investigated and most of them are used in order to construct the confidence index for the
Turkish case. The variables related to the purchasing power of the consumer (at present and
over the next six months) that can be thought as a proxy for the income of consumers
(questions 1 and 2); the variable about job opportunities (next six months) (question 5); the
general economic situation (next three months) (question 4); buying time condition of durable
goods (present) (question 7), which can be considered as a leading indicator for the demand
for durable goods are chosen in order to construct consumer confidence index. The
constructed confidence index can be thought as a leading indicator by including three
expectations questions. The methodology used for the construction of the confidence indicator
in this study is the same as the one derived in EU (User Guide, 2003). The calculation and the



                                                5
interpretation of the index are described in Section 7 above. The diffusion indices of survey
questions and the Consumer Confidence Index are given in Table 4.

10. Performance of the Consumer Confidence Index

The questions that are used to construct the Consumer Confidence Index and the constructed
confidence index are compared with the conventional quantitative realizations to evaluate
their degree of consistence with the realizations.
The Consumer Confidence Index’s performance is tested in the following way. The Consumer
Confidence Index is compared with the year-to-year changes of industrial production index in
Figure 1 for illustrating its performance. Figure 1 shows that the index seems to behave
parallel to the IPI.
 Figure 1

                                        Industrial Production Index and Consumer Confidence Index
  115                                                                                                                                                                                                 25
                                                                                                                     Consumer Confidence Index
  110                                                                                                                                                                                                 20
                                                                                                                     IPI (year to year change %) (right scale)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      15
  105
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
   95                                                                                                                                                                                                 0

   90                                                                                                                                                                                                 -5
                             Feb.04




                                                                                    Aug.04




                                                                                                                     Nov.04




                                                                                                                                                Feb.05
           Dec.03




                                                                                             Sep.04




                                                                                                                              Dec.04
                                                Apr.04




                                                                          Jul.04




                                                                                                                                                                   Apr.05




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul.05
                    Jan.04




                                      Marc.04




                                                         Ma.04

                                                                 Jun.04




                                                                                                          Oct.04




                                                                                                                                       Jan.05




                                                                                                                                                         Marc.05




                                                                                                                                                                            Ma.05

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun.05


The Consumer Confidence Index is also compared with year-to-year changes of GNP, GDP,
private consumption expenditures and durable goods expenditures at fixed (1987) prices in
Table 1. It can be seen that the diffusion indices of questions 1 and 7, Consumer Confidence
Index, private consumption expenditures and durable goods expenditures illustrate similar
pattern.
Table 1

                       Private      Durable
                    Consumption      Goods                                                                                     Diffusion    Diffusion                                    Consumer
                    Expenditures* Expenditures*                                    GDP*                   GNP*                 Index of     Index of                                     Confidence
   Period               (%)           (%)                                           (%)                    (%)                Question 1** Question 7**                                   Index**
   2004Q1                    12.4                         48.0                     11.8                      13.9                      100.0                       134.5                     111.4
   2004Q2                    18.4                         61.4                     14.4                      15.7                      97.3                        138.6                     108.3
   2004Q3                    7.3                          28.9                      5.3                        5.7                     93.6                        135.0                     103.1
   2004Q4                    3.6                          -5.7                      6.3                        6.6                     93.4                        134.1                     103.9
   2005Q1                    4.0                           1.5                      4.8                        5.3                     91.6                        132.9                     104.2
   2005Q2                    4.4                           2.6                      4.2                        3.4                     89.8                        132.7                       99.9
* Year-to-year changes at fixed (1987) prices
** Three-month averages
                                                                                                      6
The consumer, housing and automobile loans are investigated and year-to-year changes of
realized loans are given in Table 2 for the survey period. The consumer, automobile and other
loans got the highest value in March 2004 and then started to fall down. The diffusion index
of question 7 also demonstrates this downward trend (Table 4). It can also be seen from
Figure 2 that the amounts of sales of automobiles and white goods show parallel tendency
with the automobile and consumer loans respectively.
                    Table 2



                                                 Consumer                  Housing       Automobile                 Individual
                                                  Loans                     Loans           Loans      Other Loans Credit Cards
                                                                                 Year- to- year changes (%)
                       Dec.03                        125.9                   60.5           206.0         111.4        35.6
                       Jan.04                        139.7                   69.2           228.7         122.8        42.4
                       Feb.04                        159.1                   97.8           258.6         135.4        42.9
                       Marc.04                       187.0                  137.4           308.8         150.3        47.4
                       Apr.04                        233.8                  197.8           383.9         181.5        58.5
                       Ma.04                         257.7                  246.8           423.5         190.4        51.7
                       Jun.04                        249.6                  252.1           422.7         177.3        58.6
                        Jul.04                       236.9                  253.1           402.1         165.1        69.8
                       Aug.04                        216.1                  248.6           355.1         149.0        60.5
                       Sep.04                        190.9                  246.3           285.0         132.4        61.9
                       Oct.04                        148.3                  213.9           190.0         108.1        77.2
                       Nov.04                        122.6                  195.6           135.9          94.0        77.2
                       Dec.04                         95.5                  177.2            83.6          80.4        91.3
                       Jan.05                         76.4                  168.7            60.1          62.3        75.2
                       Feb.05                         82.8                  153.9            51.8          83.0        72.9
                       Marc.05                        75.3                  147.7            40.2          76.2        69.6
                       Apr.05                         66.1                  148.1            27.7          64.3        61.4
                       Ma.05                          57.6                  143.7            17.0          54.7        57.5
                       Jun.05                         62.3                  165.3            16.5          56.0        51.1
                        Jul.05                        72.6                  207.6            19.4          58.4        43.3
                       Aug.05                         77.0                  225.1            21.9          57.3        39.8


Figure 2


                                                 The Amount of Sales of Automobiles and White goods

 600000                                                                                                                                                                                             60000
 500000                                                                                                                                                                                             50000
 400000                                                                                                                                                                                             40000
 300000                                                                                                                                                                                             30000
 200000                                                                      Durable Goods                                                                                                          20000
 100000                                                                    Automobiles (right scale)                                                                                                10000
      0                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                    Aug.04
                              Feb.04




                                                                  Jun.04

                                                                           Jul.04



                                                                                             Sep.04




                                                                                                                                              Feb.05




                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun.05

                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul.05
           Dec.03

                     Jan.04



                                       Marc.04

                                                 Apr.04

                                                          Ma.04




                                                                                                                   Nov.04

                                                                                                                            Dec.04

                                                                                                                                     Jan.05



                                                                                                                                                       Marc.05

                                                                                                                                                                 Apr.05

                                                                                                                                                                          Ma.05
                                                                                                          Oct.04




                                                                                                      7
Finally, the diffusion index of question 5 and the unemployment rates are examined over the
survey period. The unemployment rate has decreased in the second quarter of 2004 and after
that it started to increase until the first quarter of 2005.
             Table 3


                               Labour force              Unemployment                Non-agriculture
              Period       participation rate (%)          Rate (%)               unemployment rate (%)
              2003Q4               47.1                          10.3                     14.6
              2004Q1               45.9                          12.4                     17.3
              2004Q2               49.2                          9.3                      13.6
              2004Q3               50.6                          9.5                       14
              2004Q4               48.4                          10                       14.1
              2005Q1               46.8                          11.7                     15.4
              2005Q2               49.3                          9.2                      12.5

The moving averages of the diffusion index of question 5 and the 6-month changes in
unemployment rate are calculated in order to test the consistency with the realizations in
Figure 3. The question 5 (job opportunities expectations) shows an opposite structure with the
changes in unemployment rate as expected.

  Figure 3



  98.0                               Unemployment Rate and Question 5                                       0.30

  96.0                                                                                                      0.20
  94.0
                                                                                                            0.10
  92.0
                                                                                                            0.00
  90.0
                                                                                                            -0.10
  88.0                                             Question 5 (monthly average)

  86.0                                             Change in Unemployment Rate (%) (right scale)            -0.20

  84.0                                                                                                      -0.30
                  2004Q3




                                          2004Q4




                                                                         2005Q1




                                                                                                   2005Q2




                                                             8
Table 4
Diffusion Indices based on individual questions concerning the consumer tendency




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          months)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              goods (present)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         goods (next 6 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            a home (next 12 months)




                                                           Purchasing power (present)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Probability of buying durable




                           Consumer confidence index
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      price changes (next 12 months)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Saving time condition (present)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Probability of buying or building




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Buying time condition of durable




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Job opportunities (next 6 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Expectation about the direction of




                                                                                            Purchasing power (next 6 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Assessment on spending money on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      semi-durable goods (next 3 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               improvements or renovations (next 6




                                                                                                                                   General economic situation (present)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Probability of saving (next 6 months)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       consumption expenditures (next 3 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Probability of borrowing money to finance




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Probability of buying a car (next 6 months)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Pobability of spending any money on home




                                                                                                                                                                              General economic situation (next 3 months)
       YEAR & Month
             2003 12   110.3                            97.9                            107.5                                  114.8                                      118.3                                            107.5                                                                           120.3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   85.2                                 39.1                                      90.1
              2004 1   111.4                           100.8                            108.3                                  115.4                                      117.6                                            104.9                                                                           125.4                                 24.5                              10.1                                             9                                     32                                                                                       92.8                                 39.9                                      92.1
                   2   111.9                            99.5                            106.5                                  114.1                                      115.1                                            100.4                                    99.1                                   137.9                                 24.1                              9.4                                             7.9                                   33.8                                        45.2                                          89.2                                 32.8                                      88.8
                   3    111                             99.8                            106.1                                  112.4                                      113.1                                             95.6                                   101.2                                   140.2                                 26.2                              9.3                                             8.3                                   35.4                                        42.4                                          88.7                                 31.5                                      86.4
                   4    111                             99.2                            104.7                                   113                                       114.1                                             95.1                                   104.6                                   141.6                                 22.5                              8.8                                             8.6                                   33.8                                        40.2                                          90.5                                 30.6                                      90.1
                   5   107.3                            95.8                            100.2                                  106.2                                      106.1                                             94.4                                   103.1                                   139.8                                 22.5                              8.9                                             8.2                                   33.3                                        38.3                                          83.6                                 30.9                                       80
                   6   106.6                            96.9                            101.9                                  106.1                                      107.5                                             92.4                                    102                                    134.4                                 23.6                              9.3                                              8                                    33.9                                        38.3                                          80.4                                 31.3                                      85.9
                   7   105.4                            94.6                             97.9                                  103.3                                       105                                               90                                    101.7                                   139.4                                 20.4                              9.8                                             7.7                                   27.7                                        36.2                                          79.1                                 27.2                                       82
                   8   101.2                            92.7                             94.7                                   97.9                                       98.9                                             86.7                                   104.4                                   133.3                                 19.4                              7.3                                             6.2                                   24.6                                        36.3                                          75.5                                 25.5                                      74.8
                   9   102.8                            93.4                             96.1                                  100.5                                      102.8                                             89.6                                   106.2                                   132.4                                 19.9                              9.1                                             8.6                                   23.4                                        38.1                                          72.9                                 26.4                                      74.5
                  10   103.7                            94.4                             96.7                                  101.5                                      103.5                                             91.5                                   108.8                                   132.5                                 17.5                              8.4                                             7.6                                   18.8                                        35.6                                          72.5                                 26.1                                      74.3
                  11   102.7                            93.0                             96.0                                  100.7                                      100.8                                             91.8                                   105.3                                   131.8                                 18.0                              8.9                                             7.1                                   18.7                                        37.2                                          70.7                                 24.8                                      72.8
                  12   105.2                            92.7                             97.5                                  102.8                                      104.7                                             93.1                                   104.0                                   137.9                                 20.4                              7.7                                             6.8                                   18.3                                        36.9                                          72.5                                 25.6                                      77.9
              2005 1   105.4                            92.8                             99.2                                  106.5                                      108.6                                             94.2                                   102.0                                   132.3                                 19.2                              7.9                                             7.7                                   22.2                                        35.4                                          73.7                                 25.2                                      87.3
                   2   105.2                            92.3                             98.7                                  103.7                                      105.5                                             96.8                                   101.6                                   132.8                                 20.9                              8.8                                             9.1                                   25.1                                        35.5                                          76.2                                 24.5                                      88.3
                   3   102.1                            89.8                             95.8                                   98.0                                      100.5                                             90.5                                   102.5                                   133.6                                 20.7                              8.1                                             8.3                                   28.7                                        32.7                                          78.1                                 26.2                                      87.5
                   4   100.4                            89.6                             94.2                                   95.0                                       97.1                                             87.4                                   102.1                                   133.4                                 19.4                              8.0                                             8.6                                   30.6                                        34.3                                          73.7                                 23.7                                      86.0
                   5   100.3                            89.6                             94.8                                   93.6                                       95.9                                             88.4                                   101.2                                   133.1                                 19.1                              7.6                                             8.3                                   29.8                                        33.7                                          70.0                                 22.1                                      90.7
                   6    99.1                            90.1                             93.8                                   92.5                                       93.6                                             86.2                                   102.7                                   131.5                                 19.3                              7.7                                             8.0                                   27.3                                        35.2                                          70.6                                 23.1                                      87.5
                   7    99.2                            90.3                             92.8                                   92.4                                       94.2                                             84.0                                   103.8                                   134.8                                 19.4                              8.6                                             8.9                                   23.7                                        34.6                                          69.5                                 23.2                                      87.9
                   8    97.5                            89.6                             91.3                                   91.1                                       93.0                                             86.4                                   103.5                                   127.1                                 19.6                              8.0                                             8.8                                   23.5                                        34.8                                          69.8                                 21.6                                      87.4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    9
11. Conclusion

In this study the CTS is introduced in a detailed way and the qualitative questions of the CTS
are analyzed with the Consumer Confidence Index that has been developed by using the
methodology of EU (User Guide, 2003).
This study indicates the evaluation of the consumer confidence index's performance, the
interpretation of the index and the graphical analysis of the sub-indices with the realizations.
The sub-indices of the Consumer Confidence Index are found to be quite reliable and
consistent.
There are some restrictions in constructing the confidence index. CTS has been conducted
since December 2003 therefore the statistical analysis like cross-correlation or seasonality
tests could not be evaluated due to insufficient number of observations. It is clear that though
there are some limitations of the survey, the Consumer Confidence Index performs quite well.
It is worth to note that there is always a possibility to construct different confidence indices
based on different criteria. Besides, the explanatory properties of the indices of the Consumer
Confidence Index must be revised from time to time based on statistical criteria in order to
validate its performance in the future.




                                               10
References

User Guide (2003), “The Joint Harmonised EU Programme Of Business And Consumer Surveys”,
European Commission Directorate General Economic And Financial Affairs.


Curtin, R. (2002), “Surveys of Consumers: Theory, Methods, and Interpretation”, NABE 44th Annual
Meeting, Washington DC.


Nilsson R. (2000), “Consumer Surveys Methodology, analytical use and presentation of results”,
Seminario Sobre Indicadores Lideres y Encuestas de Expectativas, Rio de Janeiro.


Kershoff, G. (2000), “Measuring Business and Consumer Confidence in South Africa”, BER,
Stellenbosh, December.




                                                 11
Appendix
Questions of the CTS:
   1.   How does your purchasing power at present compared to the past 6 months?
               Much more      A little bit      Remain the        A little bit    Much more        No idea
                 better         better            same             worser          worser

   2.   How do you think your own purchasing power will change over the next 6 months?
               Much more      A little bit      Remain the        A little bit    Much more        No idea
                 better         better            same             worser          worser

   3.   How does the current general economic situation in Turkey at present compared to the past 3 months?
               Much more      A little bit      Remain the        A little bit    Much more        No idea
                 better         better            same             worser          worser

   4.   How do you think the general economic situation in Turkey will change over the next 3 months?
               Much more      A little bit      Remain the        A little bit    Much more        No idea
                 better         better            same             worser          worser

   5.   How do you think the job opportunities in Turkey will change over the next 6 months?
                Increase        Increase         Remain the           Fall             Fall        No idea
                 sharply         slightly          same             slightly         sharply

   6.   How do you think your spending on semi-durable goods (clothes, shoes, kitchen equipment, etc.) will
        change over the next 3 months compared with what it was 3 months ago?
                Increase        Increase         Remain the           Fall             Fall        No idea
                 sharply         slightly          same             slightly         sharply

   7.   Do you think it is the right time to buy durable consumption goods such as refrigerator, TV, furniture?
                       Yes, it is                It is neither            No, it is not            No idea
                        the right                  the right                the right
                       time now                    time nor                time now
                                                  the wrong
                                                      time


   8.   How likely are you or your household to buy durable consumption goods like refrigerator, TV, furniture
        over the next 6 months?
                  Very              Fairly                  Not                      Not at        No idea
                  likely            likely                 likely                   all likely

   9.   How likely are you or your household to buy a car over the next 6 months?
                     Very              Fairly               Not                   Not at         No idea
                     likely            likely              likely                all likely

   10. How likely are you or your household to buy or build a home over the next 12 months?
                     Very              Fairly               Not                   Not at         No idea
                     likely            likely              likely                all likely




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11. How likely are you or your household to spend any money on home improvements or renovations
    (spendings on heating system, whitewash, kitchen-bath repairs, etc. except spendings on little amount of
    purchases) over the next 6 months?
                  Very            Fairly              Not               Not at           No idea
                  likely          likely             likely            all likely

12. How likely are you or your household to borrow money (consumer credits, other borrowings) to finance
    consumption expenditures over the next 3 months?
                  Very            Fairly              Not               Not at           No idea
                  likely          likely             likely            all likely

13. In view of the general economic situation, do you think this is:
(saving (TL, foreign currency, gold, deposit, financial investment instruments, etc.) time condition)
         A very good A fairly                 Not a good                  A very bad             No idea
         time to save good time                  time                    time to save
                       to save                 to save



14. How likely are you to save (TL, foreign currency, gold, deposit, financial investment instruments, etc.)
    over the next 6 months?
                  Very                     Fairly              Not                  Not at all   No idea
                  likely                   likely             likely                 likely

15. In comparison to the realizations, what do you think about the direction of price changes over the next
    12 months?
           Increase         Increase          Increase at           Stay              Fall       No idea
             more            at the          a slower rate        about the
            rapidly        same rate                                same




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