# Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1

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```					Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

Answers are on the last sheet

Questions 1 to 4 refer to the following:

The numbers of incorrect answers on a true-false competence test of 15 students were
recorded as follows:       2, 1, 3, 0, 1, 3, 6, 0, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 4 and 2

1. The mean of the data is:

a.   2.0
b.   2.4
c.   3.0
d.   3.4
e.   I do not know

2. The median of the data are:

a.   2.4
b.   2.2
c.   3.0
d.   2.0
e.   I do not know

3. The standard deviation of the data is (to 2 decimal places):

a.   1.66
b.   1.72
c.   2.0
d.   2.4
e.   I do not know

4. Suppose the 15 students were a representative sample from a larger group. Then the
estimated standard deviation of the group is (to 2 decimal places):

a.   1.66
b.   1.72
c.   2.0
d.   2.4
e.   I do not know

Page 1 of 8
Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

Questions 5 to 7 refer to the following data:

Measurements for alloy compressive strength were recorded in the following table:

Class interval   70-90   90-110   110-130   130-150   150-170   170-190   190-210

Mid-point         80      100      120        140      160       180       200

Frequency         4        5        7          14       22        17        10

5. The mean of the data is:

a.   140
b.   154.43
c.   160
d.   11.286
e.   I do not know

6. The mode of the data is:

a.   140
b.   160
c.   the interval 130-150
d.   the interval 150-170
e.   I do not know

7. The standard deviation of the series is (to 2 decimal places):

a.   12.66
b.   31.97
c.   160.22
d.   284.16
e.   I do not know

Questions 8 to 10 refer to the following situation: One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black
balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls.

8. One ball is drawn from the first bag. What is the probability that it is white?
a. 3/4
b. 7/15
c. 4/7
d. 4/15
e. I do not know.

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Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

9. One ball is drawn from each bag. What is the probability that they are both white?
a. 53/56
b. 12/56
c. 7/15
d. 14/15
e. I do not know

10. Two balls are drawn from the first bag. What is the probability that both are black?
a. 6/7
b. 6/49
c. 9/49
d. 3/21
e. I do not know.

11. The following table shows the monthly demand figures for a company’s product.

Month        Jan        Feb       Mar       Apr
Demand       106        110       118       105

Using a starting forecast of 100 units for January and a smoothing constant equal to
0.3 the forecast (using exponential smoothing) for May is:
a. 106
b. 106.8
c. 107.4
d. 108.4
e. I do not know

12. The average number of absentees per day at a large factory has been recorded for
each quarter of the years 1998 – 2002. The time series has been analysed and the
following average seasonal indices obtained:

Quarter                    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Seasonal index             1.4 0.8 0.7 1.1

A trend forecast for Q1 of 2003 yields a value of 35 absentees. What forecast would
you make of the people who would be absent in Q1 of 2003:

a.   35
b.   40
c.   49
d.   39
e.   I do not know

Page 3 of 8
Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

13. What is the MAE of the monthly forecasts given below (to 2 decimal places):

Sales     10 15 22 13 18 26
Forecasts 12 19 28 14 19 21
a.   3.17
b.   18.83
c.   1.50
d.   3.72
e.   I do not know

14. What   value of α has been used to produce the exponential smoothing forecast below ?
a.    0.0
b.    0.3
c.    impossible to say
d.    1.0
e.    I do not know

15. Quarterly sales figures have been plotted on a graph. When two lines are drawn, one
lying roughly through the ‘peaks’ of the data and the other through the ‘troughs’ of
the data it is found that they are approximately parallel. The appropriate Time Series
model to use with these data is:

a.   The Regression model
c.   The Multiplicative model
d.   Exponential smoothing model
e.   I do not know

Page 4 of 8
Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

The decision tree below is applicable to questions 16 to 18. It illustrates two commercial
options (A and B) available to a company and the profits (in £000’s) that have been forecast
if the resulting sales are high or low.
50

high

Option A                             low         10

40

Option B                           high

Low         20

16. What option should the company choose if the probability of high sales for option A is
0.7 while the probability of high sales for option B is 0.8
a. Option A with an expected profit of £50,000
b. Option A with an expected profit of £40,000
c. Option A with an expected profit of £38,000
d. Either option as both yield the same profit
e. I do not know

17. Suppose the expected profit for option A was £34,000. Then the probability of high
sales is
a. 0.3
b. 0.5
c. 0.6
d. 1.0
e. I do not know

18. The expected profits from the two options above will be the same when the
probability of the profits being high is equal to
a. 1/4
b. 1/2
c. 3/4
d. 1
e. I do not know

Page 5 of 8
Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

Questions 19 to 23 refer to a Linear Programming problem. The objective is to maximise
contribution to profits, where one unit of X gives a contribution of £3 and one unit of Y gives
a contribution of £5. The constraint equations and their graphs are given below.

3x + 2y ≤ 18
2y ≤ 12
x        ≤4
x ≥ 0, and y ≥ 0

(0,9)    A

B
(0,6)
H                   C

D

G                          F        E
(0,0)                  (4,0)   (6,0)

19. Which constraint equation does line ABDE represent?
a. 3x + 2y ≤ 18
b. 2y ≤ 12
c. x ≤ 4
d. y ≥ 0
e. I do not know

20. Which is the feasible region?
b. HBDEG
c. HBDFG
d. HCDEG
e. I do not know

21. What point on the graph would give the optimal values of X and Y
a. A
b. B
c. C
d. D
e. I do not know

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Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

22. If constraint x ≤ 4 was replaced by x≥ 4, what would be the feasible region?
a. Will not change
b. BCD
c. ABH
d. DEF
e. I do not know

23. If constraint x ≤ 4 was replaced by x≥ 4, what point on the graph would give the
optimal values of X and Y
a. A
b. B
c. C
d. D
e. I do not know

24. The missing value in the spreadsheet table below is:
a. 53.5
b. 53.75
c. 53.625
d. 55
e. I do not know

Year Quarter Imports             MA     Trend
2002            2          60
3          55
4          47     53.5 Missing
2003            1          52 53.75
2          61

25. The probability of the future demand for a proposed new product being high has been
estimated at 0.75. Using this figure a decision has been made to proceed with the
marketing of the product. It has also been calculated that even if the probability fell
to 0.5 the same decision would be made. Which of the following statements is true?

a.   The decision is very sensitive to the probability estimate
b.   The wrong sort of analysis has been used
c.   The initial probability estimate must be wrong
d.   The decision is not sensitive to the probability estimate.
e.   I do not know

-o0o- End of Test –o0o-

Page 7 of 8
Business Statistics and Decision making for Accounting UFQEEP-20-1
January 2004 Assignment – Multiple Choice Test under exam conditions

1b
2d
3a
4b
5b
6d
7a
8c
9b
10 d
11 c
12 c
13 a
14 a
15 b
16 c
17 c
18 b
19 a
20 c
21 b
22 d
23 d
24 c
25 d

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