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Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated Strategies in China Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine Sibold Published in Sinosphere in March 2003 Sinosphere, 6(1):40-47 share of FCV technology, which should greatly security, environmental quality and industrial expand in the near future. In the context of competitiveness. China has already launched a globalization, the line between foreign and massive FCV research and develop program indigenous technologies and products is designed to accelerate FCV commercialization. becoming more and more blurred, while the To help achieve its goals, China can leverage rights to the technology and the related markets these impressive efforts through increased gain increasing importance. The complicated international cooperation and a targeted and multi-layered partnerships formed among program of government incentives. the world’s leading automakers and technology companies prove the worth of this approach. The government should encourage and assist Chinese companies to reach out in this manner Project Highlight by offering them special loans and credit lines. Finally, government incentives should be Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits directed toward both the big and the small. That of Integrated Strategies in China is, China should broaden its focus beyond the automobile (the primary focus of most Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine developed countries) to include fuel cell buses Sibold12 and scooters. As the world’s most populous country, China boasts the greatest number of public buses in the world –over 226,000 in 2000 Abstract 11 -- an obvious reason to give buses priority. In The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s addition to the economic, social and (EPA) Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) environmental merits of public transportation, program was established to build capacity in FCB commercialization should be easier to developing countries to understand, assess and realize than that of private cars because buses pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits run on fixed routes, simplifying the refueling approaches to solving local air quality problems. process. FC scooters, on the other hand, EPA has partnered with experts and policy require a small FC stack capacity, making their makers around the world to apply the IES production and manufacture less technically approach. The program emphasizes both challenging in many respects than a fuel cell car analytical capacity building and implementation. or bus. Its small size also reduces the FC Rapid industrialization, economic growth and scooter’s total cost. Although some Chinese urbanization in China provide a unique and urban planners favor banning all two wheelers in important opportunity for the IES program. This congested urban centers out of concerns for article provides an overview of the IES program traffic management and passenger safety, we in China and elaborates on an earlier, more believe that fuel cell scooters should not be technical Sinosphere article, “Benefits of grouped for policy purposes with polluting, noisy Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant and energy-inefficient mopeds. A scooter, by Reduction and Health Improvements in Chinese official definition, should have a Shanghai”, written by the Shanghai IES team 13. maximum speed of no higher than 24 km per hour, suitable to run in China’s numerous bicycle 12 lanes. With no emissions and low noise, FC Kong Chiu and Katherine Sibold are with the U.S. scooters should create no undesired impact on a Environmental Protection Agency and Collin Green is city’s traffic. Considering the high population with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The density of Chinese cities, FC scooters can be a opinions and recommendations included in this article good supplementary means of transportation for are those of the authors and do not represent official policies or positions of the United States Government, the majority of urban residents. the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In conclusion, hydrogen FCV technology holds great promise for China in terms of energy 13 Chen Changhong, Chen Binghen et al., Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant Reduction 11 Communication with China Energy Research and Health Improvements in Shanghai, Sinosphere, Institute (2002) Volume 5, Issue 2, November 2002. 40 economic expansion continues. 18 In addition, Introduction respiratory disease is often noted as one of the leading causes of death in China, and, A recent analysis by the International Monetary according to a World Bank and WHO analysis, Fund (IMF) suggests that China’s annual real contributes to a greater proportion of deaths in 19 GDP growth continues to exceed expectations China than in many developing countries. 14 and is projected to stay above 7% in 2003. This is well above IMF’s projections for average In addition to air pollutants, China’s growth rates in developing countries (5.2%) and industrialization and urbanization generate countries with advanced economies (2.5%) in substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 15 the same time period. China’s continued At 775 MMTCE 20 per year or roughly 12% of economic and industrial growth has been fed by worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from fossil substantial energy consumption, mostly through fuel combustion in 2000, China’s annual carbon fossil fuels. dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion are the second largest in the World, after the Numerous urban centers throughout the country United States.21 have grown as the economy has grown. Between 1982 and 2001, China’s urban As Sinton and Fridley point out in an earlier population steadily grew from 21% of the issue of Sinosphere, China reduced its GHG country’s total to 37%. 16 This places China’s emissions through efficiency improvements and 22 urban population at over 450 million or more changes in coal use in the late 1990s. Despite than 150% of the entire United States these reductions, China’s long-term greenhouse population. Increases in wealth have gas emissions are still projected to increase as accelerated motor vehicle use and ownership, economic growth and reliance on fossil fuels particularly in China’s cities. continues. The increases in population density, While local air quality and global warming industrialization, energy consumption and motor appear to be separate issues for China’s vehicle use have taken their toll on urban air environmental policy makers, significant quality in China. The country’s continued opportunities exist for strategies that coordinate reliance on coal for energy use (70%) resources and efforts to address both. In many 17 compounds the problem. Ambient levels of cases, integrated measures can have multiple- particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides benefits that improve local air quality and reduce significantly exceed World Health Organization greenhouse gas emissions. There is growing (WHO) standards in most Chinese cities. In recognition among academics and policy many instances, particulate and sulfur dioxide makers around the world that co-benefits to concentrations in China’s urban centers are greenhouse gas mitigation, including air quality among the highest in the world. and public health improvement should be As recent studies point out, emissions of these 18. Streets, David and S.T. Waldhoff. Present and pollutants are projected to grow as China’s Future Emissions of Air Pollutants in China. Atmospheric Environment 24 (2000). 19. World Bank, China: Issues and Options in Health 14. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Financing, August 12, 1996. P. 112. Outlook, Washington, DC: IMF, September 2002. 20 15. Ibid. . Throughout this article, MMTCE will represent 16.World Bank. World Development Indicators “Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent”. Database, April, 2002 21. Energy Information Administration, International http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/countrydat Energy Related Environmental Information. 12 Dec. a.html 2002. U.S. Department of Energy. 20 Dec. 2002 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/environm. 17. Sinton, Jonathan E., David G. Fridley, Mark D. html>. Levine, Fuqiang Yang, Zhenping Jiang, Xing Zhuang, 22. Sinton, Jonathan and Fridley, David. 2001. Kejun Jiang, and Xiaofeng Liu eds. China Energy Growth in China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions is Databook, V. 5.0, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Slower Than Expected, Sinosphere, Volume 4, Issue Report LBNL-47832, May, 2001. 1, Winter 2001. 41 documented and captured. The opportunities resources. for doing so are particularly pronounced in • Develop, test and refine effective developing countries where industrialization and analytical methodologies and transfer urbanization are rapidly increasing GHG and air them to in-country government agencies pollutant emissions. and technical institutions. • Encourage implementation of multiple- Integrated Strategies benefits strategies and incorporation of multiple-benefits approaches into The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s environmental policy decision making. Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) program was established to build capacity in The country-driven IES approach is designed to developing countries to understand, assess and match the particular resources, technical pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits capacity and priorities of partner countries. In approaches to solving local air quality the program, an inter-disciplinary team of 23 problems. The program builds on analytical technical experts develops policy scenarios that methodologies that have been used in the U.S. include a variety of air quality measures. to evaluate greenhouse gas and clean air Increased use of clean energy technologies, policies. The program also supports U.S. efforts switches to cleaner fuels, improvements in to help developing nations grow along a more efficiency and management of energy demand efficient and environmentally friendly path. are examples of measures that could have both Through the IES program, EPA works with local air pollution and GHG benefits. Included within experts and policymakers in developing the scenarios is a “business as usual” or status countries to quantify the public health and quo estimate. The teams work to estimate the environmental benefits of integrated strategies future air pollutant and greenhouse gas for greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution emissions of each scenario. The projected control. To date, EPA has partnered with health pollutant emissions are then used to calculate and environmental specialists in Argentina, the pollutant concentration levels and estimated Brazil, Chile, China, India, Korea and Mexico human exposures, which, in turn, are used to 24 and the Philippines through the IES program. estimate health effect impacts associated with In each of these countries, the IES program has each scenario. A schematic of the typical IES sought to: program phases is given in Figure 1. • Build lasting in-country capacity for the Factors that have contributed to the IES analysis of health, environmental and program’s success include: GHG mitigation impacts of alternative measures and strategies. • Early stakeholder and policymaker • Quantify and disseminate information on involvement. key environmental, public health and • Emphasis on building in-country GHG mitigation benefits of integrated analytical and technical capacity. strategies. • Wide dissemination of results • Provide policy makers with valuable throughout policy making circles. information on policy choices and • Continued support and follow-through to technologies that have a broad range of encourage implementation of measures. benefits and improve the use of limited 23. Additional information on EPA’s Integrated Environmental Strategies program is available at: www.nrel.gov/icap. (EPA is currently in the process of developing a new web site for the IES program. Information on this, when it is complete, will be posted on the address cited above). 24 . In 2003, EPA and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will launch and co-manage an IES program in the Philippines. 42 designed to have as much influence on host- country policy development and implementation Planning & Initiation & as possible. A detailed assessment of the program’s first phase, which was conducted in Establish IES Work plan and In-Country Team(s) Shanghai, is given in an eralier Sinosphere article, “Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural Develop Integrated AQ/GHG Scenarios Gas for Pollutant Reduction and Health Improvements in Shanghai” written by 26 Changhong Chen, Bingheng Chen et al. Analysis Technical Analysis History of the IES Program in China Quantify AQ and GHG Impacts of Scenarios The IES program in China began as an Quantify Health Effects and Benefits assessment of energy options and health impacts in major Chinese cities, of which Quantify Economic Value of Health Benefits Shanghai was the first. EPA originally supported this local study concept through a partnership with the World Resources Institute (WRI) and China Council of International Linkage Policy Linkage Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) in early 1999. The work was Disseminate and Review Results conducted in consultation with China’s State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). Promote Implementation In April of 1999, EPA’s Administrator signed a series of Statements of Intent with the Minister of SEPA. One of these expanded the ongoing Figure 1. IES Program Stages WRI-CCICED project into a broader, national assessment by creating a partnership to “Assess Benefits of Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Protect Public Health in China”. The Integrated Strategies in China completed Shanghai work is being replicated in Beijing (initiated in 2001) and broadened to The confluence of rapid industrialization, produce a national level assessment. economic growth, and urbanization, with their Reflecting the IES program’s emphasis on local consequent air pollution and greenhouse gas capacity building, technical teams for the China emissions impact has made China an important IES program are based out of leading scientific partner for the IES program. Work to link health and environmental institutions in both Shanghai benefits to air pollution abatement in China is and Beijing. Two technical teams manage the not new. For example, a project described by work related to the Shanghai IES program. Jia Li and David Streets in a recent Sinosphere Work on energy analysis, pollutant mitigation 25 paper is consistent with IES efforts to date . options and air quality modeling is conducted by The IES program adds a comprehensive the Shanghai Academy of Environmental process and methodology that engages Sciences (SAES) under the leadership of Dr. policymakers from inception to completion and Changhong Chen. A team of researchers leaves behind sufficient analytical capacity for Fudan University (formerly Shanghai Medical continued work in the future. All of the analytical work is planned and conducted by in-country experts, with assistance from the international 26. Op cit 2. Additional information on the Shanghai IES community. It is a long-term program IES study can be found in the IES final report, The Integrated Assessment of Energy Option and Health Benefit-Full Report (December 2000) by Chen 25. Jia Li, David Streets et al. Health Benefits from Changhong, Fu Qingyan, Chen Minghua, Chen Air Pollution Controls in Shanghai, The Sinosphere , Bingheng, Hong Chuanjie and Kan Haidong. The Volume 4, Issue 2, Spring 2002. report is available online at: http://www.nrel.gov/icap/china_sumproj.html 43 University) conducts the analysis of air pollution model developed by Dr Luis Cifuentes 27 and health impacts and the valuation of those coded in Analytica®. Concentration response impacts under the leadership of Professor (CR) values from Chinese epidemiological Bingheng Chen. studies, where available, were used in the model to estimate the magnitude of health impacts in In Beijing, Dr. He Kebin leads the energy and Shanghai. Where CR values for China could not atmospheric modeling work at Tsinghua be found, international parameters were adapted University and Dr. Pan Xia Chuan leads a team for the analysis. of graduate students at Beijing Medical University on the health effects work. The Final Results from the Shanghai IES Study Beijing team will also take the lead on conducting the national level IES assessment. The Shanghai IES study evaluated 6 scenarios Technical support and coordination of the in- (a “business as usual” base case and five country teams has been provided from the energy and air pollution control scenarios) and United States through the assistance of the projected emissions reductions and health National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). benefits through 2020. GHG and air pollution reduction actions in the scenarios include Technical Methodology, The Shanghai efficiency improvements in industrial coal use, Example switching to natural gas, SO2 and NOX emission targets and a carbon tax. Depending on which The Shanghai project follows the general policies and measures are implemented, these approach of prior IES studies in other countries, actions would reduce annual CO2 emissions by though the selection of specific tools and 9 to 47 million metric tons in 2010 and 14 to 73 analyses was based on local capabilities and million metric tons in 2020 over the base case data availability. The Shanghai team developed scenario. In addition, the ancillary benefit energy utilization scenarios through 2020. analysis indicates 647 to 5,472 premature Consequent pollutant emissions levels were deaths would be avoided in 2010 through calculated using MARKAL, the market allocation improvements in air quality from the different energy-emissions linear program model. The scenarios. Key results are summarized in Table source emissions were translated into air 1 and Figure 2.28 pollution exposure levels via the University of Iowa’s ATMOS model. An earlier, industrial sources complex (ISC) type model for air dispersion was also used and developed by the SAES team, but the final study results use ATMOS output. The model estimated ambient pollutant concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10. The PM10 levels were subsequently used to estimate health impacts. Professor B. Chen and her health effects team assessed the health impacts associated with each of the energy options. The magnitude of health impacts in relation to the energy-related air pollutant PM10 was calculated using a health-based risk assessment approach. The percentage increases of mortality or morbidity per unit 27. Dr. Luis Cifuentes of the P. Catholic University in increase of air pollutant concentration was also Santiago, leads the IES-Chile research team for conducting health effects analysis and economic examined. valuation work. For additional information on the IES- Chile program, see “Assessing the Health Benefits of The calculation of results was aided by using a Urban Air Pollution Reductions Associated with Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago, Sao Paulo, Mexico City and New York” Environmental Health Perspectives. 109 (Supplement 3), 2001. 28. Op cit 14. 44 Table 1. Shanghai IES Study, Key Results (Selected Scenarios are Graphed in Figure 2.) Annual Projections, by 2010 Annual Projections, by 2020 Scenario CO2 PM10 Averted Social CO2 PM10 Averted Social MMT MMT Deaths Benefit MMT MMT Deaths Benefit Reduced Reduced ($M) Reduced Reduced ($M) per yr. per yr. per yr. per yr. (1) EE Coal (improved 9 6 647 113 14 13 1,265 327 efficiency in industrial coal use) (2) EE Coal & Expanded 25 34 2,937 512 56 84 6,834 1,765 Natural Gas Utilization (3) #2 Above, plus SO 2 , NOX 30 61 4,538 795 57 150 9,807 2,554 Targets Figure 2. Projected Total CO2 Emissions , Shanghai 240 220 Million Tons 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Base Case #1 #2 #3 45 Disseminating Results and Engaging scenarios are being examined in Beijing. These Policy Makers include a base case that assumes business as usual, a clean energy scenario, an industry Results from the Shanghai analysis have been structure transformation scenario, an energy presented at numerous domestic and efficiency scenario and a green transportation international meetings. Final results of the scenario. A summary of the scenarios is Shanghai IES analysis were presented to and provided in Table 2. Similar to the Shanghai discussed by key decision makers at a one day study, the Beijing IES program examines CO2, Table 2. Beijing IES Scenarios Scenario Key Aspects Clean Energy Changeover of coal-fired industrial boilers to natural gas, use of LPG for cooking in rural Consumption residences and expanded natural gas power in grid. Industry Structure Reduction in steel production, cut TCE capacity of coking, slow-down growth in cement industry, Transformation petroleum industry and chemical industry. Energy Efficiency Improved residential lighting and A/C energy efficiency practices, fuel economy program in light vehicles Green Transport Expanded public transportation development, slow down in private car ownership, LPG in taxis, vehicular emission standards, advanced technology vehicles. policy makers workshop in Shanghai in February NOX, SO2 and PM10 emissions over a 30-year of 2002. Participants included two divisions of period. China’s State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the Shanghai Environmental Protection Beijing IES and the 2008 Olympics Bureau, Shanghai Center for Disease Control and the Shanghai Economic Development An important aspect of the IES work in Beijing is Bureau. This was the first time many of these its connection to the China’s efforts to make the health experts and policy makers had seen a 2008 summer games the world’s first “green quantifiable linkage between energy policies and Olympics”. At the time the Beijing IES energy health benefits. The roundtable provided an scenarios were developed, the Beijing municipal excellent opportunity for relevant decision- government had already published air quality makers at both the local and national levels to improvement policies in anticipation of the meet. upcoming Olympic games. Many of these policies were incorporated into the energy A similar policy makers workshop is planned for scenarios designed by the Beijing IES team. In the Beijing IES study, which is expected to be July of 2002, the Beijing municipal government completed by summer of 2003. Like the released an Olympic action plan that provides Shanghai workshop, the Beijing workshop will overarching guidance on all the city’s be part of a broad outreach program to preparations for the Olympics. The “Beijing disseminate IES results, engage policy makers Olympics Action Plan” includes numerous and influence the development of climate and air initiatives to improve urban infrastructure and quality friendly policies in China. environmental quality in Beijing by 2008. The Beijing IES team has been careful to make the The Beijing IES Program scenarios listed in Table 2 consistent with the city’s Olympics action plan. The assumptions The Beijing study follows the same general made in the clean energy supply, industry approach as Shanghai, though specific modeling structure and green transport scenarios are tools will be different. The LEAP 2000 model is directly relevant to the municipal government’s being used to project energy utilization and air “Beijing Olympics Action Plan”. Preliminary quality will be mapped using the Industrial results from the Beijing IES study indicate that Sources Complex (ISC) model. Five core SO2 and NOX concentrations should reach the 46 city’s goals by 2008 if all of the measures listed this work lie ahead, as the national level IES in the scenarios are implemented. However, assessment is conducted in China. The national additional policies and measures may be assessment is being designed to provide needed for the city to reach its targets for fine information and results that support the particles. development of China’s 11th 5 year plan. Stakeholders and policy makers involved in the Through these results, it is already evident that project expect the national IES assessment to the tools and analytical techniques of the IES play have a role in shaping the energy and program can have direct bearing on policies and environment components of that plan. initiatives to improve air quality in the Beijing urban area. The city’s efforts to meet its 2008 Olympics goals provide an excellent opportunity for showcasing the IES program’s analytical and capacity building strengths. Conclusions Environmental Briefing A primary goal of the IES program is to influence Compiled by Nuyi Tao the formation and implementation of policies that emphasize co-benefits from reducing both greenhouse gases and air pollutants. To this Biodiversity and Protected Areas extent, the Shanghai study has already had an impact on policy making in China. During the Input of 50 billion yuan to preserve biological final stages of the Shanghai IES project, the diversity study team was commissioned by the municipal government to prepare background reports for China was revising its national Biodiversity the air quality portion of Shanghai’s 10 th 5-year Conservation Action Plan, adding new plan. At the February, 2002 policy makers regulations on biosafety, alien invasive species, workshop, representatives from both SEPA and and access to and benefit sharing of genetic the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau resources, in an effort to incorporate biodiversity confirmed the IES study influenced the conservation into the exploitation of resources in development of this 5-year plan. Specifically, west China, economic construction and the Shanghai IES work identified particulate development. control as a high priority, influenced the setting of 5-year goals for SO 2, NOX and PM10 and China's National Tenth Five-Year (2001-2005) identified specific technologies and fuel mix Plan for Environmental Protection specified an goals for the Shanghai energy system. In investment of 50 billion yuan (6.1 billion dollars) addition, municipal officials credited the IES for priority biodiversity and eco-environment work for improving coordination between energy, projects, and 10 billion yuan (1.2 billion dollars) environment and public health organizations in for strengthening national basic capacity Shanghai. building. The IES program has demonstrated connections China will also give priority to the conservation between energy policies, greenhouse gas of 17 key regions that are of crucial importance reductions and ancillary health benefits in China. for global biological diversity protection, This has raised awareness among health, including 11 land areas, three wetlands and environment and policy experts in China on the three ocean areas. Protection measures in such interplay between these issues. Local air quality regions will include the establishment of nature decisions in Shanghai have already been reserves and bans on construction projects that influenced by this work and similar results in have the potential to cause pollution and the Beijing are anticipated. For example, the early scientific study, inspection and evaluation of interconnection between the Beijing project and biological diversity in the regions will be the city’s broader efforts to prepare for the 2008 strengthened. Olympiad shows great promise. By the end of last year, the number of nature Even greater opportunities for policy linkages to reserves in China had reached 1,551, a big jump 47
"Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated "