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Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated


									Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated
                   Strategies in China
         Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine Sibold

             Published in Sinosphere in March 2003

                    Sinosphere, 6(1):40-47
share of FCV technology, which should greatly            security, environmental quality and industrial
expand in the near future. In the context of             competitiveness. China has already launched a
globalization, the line between foreign and              massive FCV research and develop program
indigenous technologies and products is                  designed to accelerate FCV commercialization.
becoming more and more blurred, while the                To help achieve its goals, China can leverage
rights to the technology and the related markets         these impressive efforts through increased
gain increasing importance. The complicated              international cooperation and a targeted
and multi-layered partnerships formed among              program of government incentives.
the world’s leading automakers and technology
companies prove the worth of this approach.
The government should encourage and assist
Chinese companies to reach out in this manner            Project Highlight
by offering them special loans and credit lines.

     Finally, government incentives should be            Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits
directed toward both the big and the small. That         of Integrated Strategies in China
is, China should broaden its focus beyond the
automobile (the primary focus of most                    Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine
developed countries) to include fuel cell buses          Sibold12
and scooters. As the world’s most populous
country, China boasts the greatest number of
public buses in the world –over 226,000 in 2000          Abstract
-- an obvious reason to give buses priority. In          The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s
addition to the economic, social and                     (EPA) Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES)
environmental merits of public transportation,           program was established to build capacity in
FCB commercialization should be easier to                developing countries to understand, assess and
realize than that of private cars because buses          pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits
run on fixed routes, simplifying the refueling           approaches to solving local air quality problems.
process. FC scooters, on the other hand,                 EPA has partnered with experts and policy
require a small FC stack capacity, making their          makers around the world to apply the IES
production and manufacture less technically              approach. The program emphasizes both
challenging in many respects than a fuel cell car        analytical capacity building and implementation.
or bus. Its small size also reduces the FC               Rapid industrialization, economic growth and
scooter’s total cost. Although some Chinese              urbanization in China provide a unique and
urban planners favor banning all two wheelers in         important opportunity for the IES program. This
congested urban centers out of concerns for              article provides an overview of the IES program
traffic management and passenger safety, we              in China and elaborates on an earlier, more
believe that fuel cell scooters should not be            technical Sinosphere article, “Benefits of
grouped for policy purposes with polluting, noisy        Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant
and energy-inefficient mopeds. A scooter, by             Reduction and Health Improvements in
Chinese official definition, should have a               Shanghai”, written by the Shanghai IES team 13.
maximum speed of no higher than 24 km per
hour, suitable to run in China’s numerous bicycle        12
lanes. With no emissions and low noise, FC                 Kong Chiu and Katherine Sibold are with the U.S.
scooters should create no undesired impact on a          Environmental Protection Agency and Collin Green is
city’s traffic. Considering the high population          with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The
density of Chinese cities, FC scooters can be a          opinions and recommendations included in this article
good supplementary means of transportation for           are those of the authors and do not represent official
                                                         policies or positions of the United States Government,
the majority of urban residents.
                                                         the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or the
                                                         National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
In conclusion, hydrogen FCV technology holds
great promise for China in terms of energy               13
                                                           Chen Changhong, Chen Binghen et al., Benefits of
                                                         Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant Reduction
  Communication with China Energy Research               and Health Improvements in Shanghai, Sinosphere,
Institute (2002)                                         Volume 5, Issue 2, November 2002.

                                                            economic expansion continues. 18 In addition,
Introduction                                                respiratory disease is often noted as one of the
                                                            leading causes of death in China, and,
A recent analysis by the International Monetary             according to a World Bank and WHO analysis,
Fund (IMF) suggests that China’s annual real                contributes to a greater proportion of deaths in
GDP growth continues to exceed expectations                 China than in many developing countries.
and is projected to stay above 7% in 2003.
This is well above IMF’s projections for average                 In addition to air pollutants, China’s
growth rates in developing countries (5.2%) and             industrialization and urbanization generate
countries with advanced economies (2.5%) in                 substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
the same time period.        China’s continued              At 775 MMTCE 20 per year or roughly 12% of
economic and industrial growth has been fed by              worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
substantial energy consumption, mostly through              fuel combustion in 2000, China’s annual carbon
fossil fuels.                                               dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion
                                                            are the second largest in the World, after the
Numerous urban centers throughout the country               United States.21
have grown as the economy has grown.
Between 1982 and 2001, China’s urban                        As Sinton and Fridley point out in an earlier
population steadily grew from 21% of the                    issue of Sinosphere, China reduced its GHG
country’s total to 37%. 16 This places China’s              emissions through efficiency improvements and
urban population at over 450 million or more                changes in coal use in the late 1990s. Despite
than 150% of the entire United States                       these reductions, China’s long-term greenhouse
population.       Increases in wealth have                  gas emissions are still projected to increase as
accelerated motor vehicle use and ownership,                economic growth and reliance on fossil fuels
particularly in China’s cities.                             continues.

The      increases     in   population   density,           While local air quality and global warming
industrialization, energy consumption and motor             appear to be separate issues for China’s
vehicle use have taken their toll on urban air              environmental     policy     makers,     significant
quality in China.        The country’s continued            opportunities exist for strategies that coordinate
reliance on coal for energy use (70%)                       resources and efforts to address both. In many
compounds the problem.         Ambient levels of            cases, integrated measures can have multiple-
particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides            benefits that improve local air quality and reduce
significantly exceed World Health Organization              greenhouse gas emissions. There is growing
(WHO) standards in most Chinese cities. In                  recognition among academics and policy
many instances, particulate and sulfur dioxide              makers around the world that co-benefits to
concentrations in China’s urban centers are                 greenhouse gas mitigation, including air quality
among the highest in the world.                             and public health improvement should be

As recent studies point out, emissions of these             18. Streets, David and S.T. Waldhoff. Present and
pollutants are projected to grow as China’s                 Future Emissions of Air Pollutants in China.
                                                            Atmospheric Environment 24 (2000).
                                                            19. World Bank, China: Issues and Options in Health
14. International Monetary Fund. World Economic             Financing, August 12, 1996. P. 112.
Outlook, Washington, DC: IMF, September 2002.
15. Ibid.                                                    . Throughout this article, MMTCE will represent
16.World Bank. World Development Indicators                 “Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent”.
Database, April, 2002                                       21. Energy Information Administration, International        Energy Related Environmental Information. 12 Dec.
a.html                                                      2002. U.S. Department of Energy. 20 Dec. 2002
17. Sinton, Jonathan E., David G. Fridley, Mark D.          html>.
Levine, Fuqiang Yang, Zhenping Jiang, Xing Zhuang,          22. Sinton, Jonathan and Fridley, David. 2001.
Kejun Jiang, and Xiaofeng Liu eds. China Energy             Growth in China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions is
Databook, V. 5.0, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory              Slower Than Expected, Sinosphere, Volume 4, Issue
Report LBNL-47832, May, 2001.                               1, Winter 2001.

documented and captured. The opportunities                             resources.
for doing so are particularly pronounced in                     •      Develop, test and refine effective
developing countries where industrialization and                       analytical methodologies and transfer
urbanization are rapidly increasing GHG and air                        them to in-country government agencies
pollutant emissions.                                                   and technical institutions.
                                                                •      Encourage implementation of multiple-
Integrated Strategies                                                  benefits strategies and incorporation of
                                                                       multiple-benefits     approaches    into
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s                             environmental policy decision making.
Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES)
program was established to build capacity in                    The country-driven IES approach is designed to
developing countries to understand, assess and                  match the particular resources, technical
pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits                      capacity and priorities of partner countries. In
approaches to solving local air quality                         the program, an inter-disciplinary team of
problems.     The program builds on analytical                  technical experts develops policy scenarios that
methodologies that have been used in the U.S.                   include a variety of air quality measures.
to evaluate greenhouse gas and clean air                        Increased use of clean energy technologies,
policies. The program also supports U.S. efforts                switches to cleaner fuels, improvements in
to help developing nations grow along a more                    efficiency and management of energy demand
efficient and environmentally friendly path.                    are examples of measures that could have both
Through the IES program, EPA works with local                   air pollution and GHG benefits. Included within
experts and policymakers in developing                          the scenarios is a “business as usual” or status
countries to quantify the public health and                     quo estimate. The teams work to estimate the
environmental benefits of integrated strategies                 future air pollutant and greenhouse gas
for greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution                 emissions of each scenario. The projected
control. To date, EPA has partnered with health                 pollutant emissions are then used to calculate
and environmental specialists in Argentina,                     the pollutant concentration levels and estimated
Brazil, Chile, China, India, Korea and Mexico                   human exposures, which, in turn, are used to
and the Philippines through the IES program.                    estimate health effect impacts associated with
In each of these countries, the IES program has                 each scenario. A schematic of the typical IES
sought to:                                                      program phases is given in Figure 1.

•        Build lasting in-country capacity for the              Factors that have contributed to the IES
         analysis of health, environmental and                  program’s success include:
         GHG mitigation impacts of alternative
         measures and strategies.                               •      Early stakeholder and policymaker
•        Quantify and disseminate information on                       involvement.
         key environmental, public health and                   •      Emphasis      on   building    in-country
         GHG mitigation benefits of integrated                         analytical and technical capacity.
         strategies.                                            •      Wide      dissemination     of     results
•        Provide policy makers with valuable                           throughout policy making circles.
         information on policy choices and                      •      Continued support and follow-through to
         technologies that have a broad range of                       encourage implementation of measures.
         benefits and improve the use of limited

23. Additional information on EPA’s Integrated
Environmental Strategies program is available at: (EPA is currently in the process
of developing a new web site for the IES program.
Information on this, when it is complete, will be posted
on the address cited above).

   . In 2003, EPA and the United States Agency for
International Development (USAID) will launch and
co-manage an IES program in the Philippines.

                                                                   designed to have as much influence on host-
                                                                   country policy development and implementation
     Planning & Initiation
              &                                                    as possible. A detailed assessment of the
                                                                   program’s first phase, which was conducted in
         Establish IES Work plan and In-Country Team(s)            Shanghai, is given in an eralier Sinosphere
                                                                   article, “Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural
         Develop Integrated AQ/GHG Scenarios                       Gas for Pollutant Reduction and Health
                                                                   Improvements in Shanghai” written by
                                                                   Changhong Chen, Bingheng Chen et al.
     Technical Analysis
                                                                   History of the IES Program in China
         Quantify AQ and GHG Impacts of Scenarios
                                                                   The IES program in China began as an
         Quantify Health Effects and Benefits                      assessment of energy options and health
                                                                   impacts in major Chinese cities, of which
         Quantify Economic Value of Health Benefits                Shanghai was the first.       EPA originally
                                                                   supported this local study concept through a
                                                                   partnership with the World Resources Institute
                                                                   (WRI) and China Council of International
     Policy Linkage                                                Cooperation on Environment and Development
                                                                   (CCICED) in early 1999.      The work was
         Disseminate and Review Results
                                                                   conducted in consultation with China’s State
                                                                   Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA).
         Promote Implementation
                                                                   In April of 1999, EPA’s Administrator signed a
                                                                   series of Statements of Intent with the Minister
                                                                   of SEPA. One of these expanded the ongoing
Figure 1. IES Program Stages                                       WRI-CCICED project into a broader, national
                                                                   assessment by creating a partnership to “Assess
                                                                   Benefits of Programs to Reduce Air Pollution
                                                                   and Protect Public Health in China”.        The
      Integrated Strategies in China                               completed Shanghai work is being replicated in
                                                                   Beijing (initiated in 2001) and broadened to
      The confluence of rapid industrialization,                   produce a national level assessment.
      economic growth, and urbanization, with their                Reflecting the IES program’s emphasis on local
      consequent air pollution and greenhouse gas                  capacity building, technical teams for the China
      emissions impact has made China an important                 IES program are based out of leading scientific
      partner for the IES program. Work to link health             and environmental institutions in both Shanghai
      benefits to air pollution abatement in China is              and Beijing. Two technical teams manage the
      not new. For example, a project described by                 work related to the Shanghai IES program.
      Jia Li and David Streets in a recent Sinosphere              Work on energy analysis, pollutant mitigation
      paper is consistent with IES efforts to date .               options and air quality modeling is conducted by
      The IES program adds a comprehensive                         the Shanghai Academy of Environmental
      process and methodology that engages                         Sciences (SAES) under the leadership of Dr.
      policymakers from inception to completion and                Changhong Chen.         A team of researchers
      leaves behind sufficient analytical capacity for             Fudan University (formerly Shanghai Medical
      continued work in the future. All of the analytical
      work is planned and conducted by in-country
      experts, with assistance from the international              26. Op cit 2. Additional information on the Shanghai
      IES community. It is a long-term program                     IES study can be found in the IES final report, The
                                                                   Integrated Assessment of Energy Option and Health
                                                                   Benefit-Full Report (December 2000) by Chen
      25. Jia Li, David Streets et al. Health Benefits from        Changhong, Fu Qingyan, Chen Minghua, Chen
      Air Pollution Controls in Shanghai, The Sinosphere ,         Bingheng, Hong Chuanjie and Kan Haidong. The
      Volume 4, Issue 2, Spring 2002.                              report is available online at:

University) conducts the analysis of air pollution        model developed by Dr Luis Cifuentes 27 and
health impacts and the valuation of those                 coded in Analytica®. Concentration response
impacts under the leadership of Professor                 (CR) values from Chinese epidemiological
Bingheng Chen.                                            studies, where available, were used in the model
                                                          to estimate the magnitude of health impacts in
In Beijing, Dr. He Kebin leads the energy and             Shanghai. Where CR values for China could not
atmospheric modeling work at Tsinghua                     be found, international parameters were adapted
University and Dr. Pan Xia Chuan leads a team             for the analysis.
of graduate students at Beijing Medical
University on the health effects work. The                Final Results from the Shanghai IES Study
Beijing team will also take the lead on
conducting the national level IES assessment.             The Shanghai IES study evaluated 6 scenarios
Technical support and coordination of the in-             (a “business as usual” base case and five
country teams has been provided from the                  energy and air pollution control scenarios) and
United States through the assistance of the               projected emissions reductions and health
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).              benefits through 2020. GHG and air pollution
                                                          reduction actions in the scenarios include
Technical Methodology, The Shanghai                       efficiency improvements in industrial coal use,
Example                                                   switching to natural gas, SO2 and NOX emission
                                                          targets and a carbon tax. Depending on which
The Shanghai project follows the general                  policies and measures are implemented, these
approach of prior IES studies in other countries,         actions would reduce annual CO2 emissions by
though the selection of specific tools and                9 to 47 million metric tons in 2010 and 14 to 73
analyses was based on local capabilities and              million metric tons in 2020 over the base case
data availability. The Shanghai team developed            scenario.    In addition, the ancillary benefit
energy utilization scenarios through 2020.                analysis indicates 647 to 5,472 premature
Consequent pollutant emissions levels were                deaths would be avoided in 2010 through
calculated using MARKAL, the market allocation            improvements in air quality from the different
energy-emissions linear program model. The                scenarios. Key results are summarized in Table
source emissions were translated into air                 1 and Figure 2.28
pollution exposure levels via the University of
Iowa’s ATMOS model. An earlier, industrial
sources complex (ISC) type model for air
dispersion was also used and developed by the
SAES team, but the final study results use
ATMOS output. The model estimated ambient
pollutant concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10.

The PM10 levels were subsequently used to
estimate health impacts. Professor B. Chen and
her health effects team assessed the health
impacts associated with each of the energy
options. The magnitude of health impacts in
relation to the energy-related air pollutant PM10
was calculated using a health-based risk
assessment approach.           The percentage
increases of mortality or morbidity per unit              27. Dr. Luis Cifuentes of the P. Catholic University in
increase of air pollutant concentration was also          Santiago, leads the IES-Chile research team for
                                                          conducting health effects analysis and economic
                                                          valuation work. For additional information on the IES-
                                                          Chile program, see “Assessing the Health Benefits of
The calculation of results was aided by using a           Urban Air Pollution Reductions Associated with
                                                          Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago,
                                                          Sao Paulo, Mexico City and New York” Environmental
                                                          Health Perspectives. 109 (Supplement 3), 2001.
                                                          28. Op cit 14.

                                             Table 1. Shanghai IES Study, Key Results
                                            (Selected Scenarios are Graphed in Figure 2.)
                                              Annual Projections, by 2010                Annual Projections, by 2020
Scenario                                    CO2       PM10     Averted   Social     CO2    PM10    Averted         Social
                                            MMT      MMT       Deaths    Benefit    MMT    MMT     Deaths          Benefit
                                          Reduced Reduced                 ($M)    Reduced Reduced                   ($M)
                                           per yr.   per yr.                       per yr. per yr.
(1) EE Coal (improved                              9         6    647         113       14      13  1,265              327
efficiency in industrial coal
(2) EE Coal & Expanded                          25        34     2,937        512         56         84    6,834    1,765
Natural Gas Utilization
(3) #2 Above, plus SO 2 , NOX                   30        61     4,538        795         57        150    9,807    2,554

                                        Figure 2. Projected Total CO2 Emissions , Shanghai

                   Million Tons

                                           2000         2005           2010          2015           2020

                                                         Base Case       #1         #2         #3

Disseminating Results and Engaging                               scenarios are being examined in Beijing. These
Policy Makers                                                    include a base case that assumes business as
                                                                 usual, a clean energy scenario, an industry
Results from the Shanghai analysis have been                     structure transformation scenario, an energy
presented     at  numerous    domestic    and                    efficiency scenario and a green transportation
international meetings. Final results of the                     scenario.    A summary of the scenarios is
Shanghai IES analysis were presented to and                      provided in Table 2. Similar to the Shanghai
discussed by key decision makers at a one day                    study, the Beijing IES program examines CO2,

                                           Table 2. Beijing IES Scenarios

Scenario             Key Aspects
Clean Energy         Changeover of coal-fired industrial boilers to natural gas, use of LPG for cooking in rural
Consumption          residences and expanded natural gas power in grid.
Industry Structure   Reduction in steel production, cut TCE capacity of coking, slow-down growth in cement industry,
Transformation       petroleum industry and chemical industry.
Energy Efficiency    Improved residential lighting and A/C energy efficiency practices, fuel economy program in light
Green Transport      Expanded public transportation development, slow down in private car ownership, LPG in taxis,
                     vehicular emission standards, advanced technology vehicles.

policy makers workshop in Shanghai in February                   NOX, SO2 and PM10 emissions over a 30-year
of 2002. Participants included two divisions of                  period.
China’s State Environmental Protection Agency
(SEPA), the Shanghai Environmental Protection                    Beijing IES and the 2008 Olympics
Bureau, Shanghai Center for Disease Control
and the Shanghai Economic Development                            An important aspect of the IES work in Beijing is
Bureau. This was the first time many of these                    its connection to the China’s efforts to make the
health experts and policy makers had seen a                      2008 summer games the world’s first “green
quantifiable linkage between energy policies and                 Olympics”. At the time the Beijing IES energy
health benefits. The roundtable provided an                      scenarios were developed, the Beijing municipal
excellent opportunity for relevant decision-                     government had already published air quality
makers at both the local and national levels to                  improvement policies in anticipation of the
meet.                                                            upcoming Olympic games. Many of these
                                                                 policies were incorporated into the energy
A similar policy makers workshop is planned for                  scenarios designed by the Beijing IES team. In
the Beijing IES study, which is expected to be                   July of 2002, the Beijing municipal government
completed by summer of 2003.          Like the                   released an Olympic action plan that provides
Shanghai workshop, the Beijing workshop will                     overarching guidance on all the city’s
be part of a broad outreach program to                           preparations for the Olympics. The “Beijing
disseminate IES results, engage policy makers                    Olympics Action Plan” includes numerous
and influence the development of climate and air                 initiatives to improve urban infrastructure and
quality friendly policies in China.                              environmental quality in Beijing by 2008. The
                                                                 Beijing IES team has been careful to make the
The Beijing IES Program                                          scenarios listed in Table 2 consistent with the
                                                                 city’s Olympics action plan. The assumptions
The Beijing study follows the same general                       made in the clean energy supply, industry
approach as Shanghai, though specific modeling                   structure and green transport scenarios are
tools will be different. The LEAP 2000 model is                  directly relevant to the municipal government’s
being used to project energy utilization and air                 “Beijing Olympics Action Plan”. Preliminary
quality will be mapped using the Industrial                      results from the Beijing IES study indicate that
Sources Complex (ISC) model. Five core                           SO2 and NOX concentrations should reach the

city’s goals by 2008 if all of the measures listed        this work lie ahead, as the national level IES
in the scenarios are implemented. However,                assessment is conducted in China. The national
additional policies and measures may be                   assessment is being designed to provide
needed for the city to reach its targets for fine         information and results that support the
particles.                                                development of China’s 11th 5 year plan.
                                                          Stakeholders and policy makers involved in the
Through these results, it is already evident that         project expect the national IES assessment to
the tools and analytical techniques of the IES            play have a role in shaping the energy and
program can have direct bearing on policies and           environment components of that plan.
initiatives to improve air quality in the Beijing
urban area. The city’s efforts to meet its 2008
Olympics goals provide an excellent opportunity
for showcasing the IES program’s analytical and
capacity building strengths.

Conclusions                                               Environmental Briefing
A primary goal of the IES program is to influence         Compiled by Nuyi Tao
the formation and implementation of policies that
emphasize co-benefits from reducing both
greenhouse gases and air pollutants. To this              Biodiversity and Protected Areas
extent, the Shanghai study has already had an
impact on policy making in China. During the              Input of 50 billion yuan to preserve biological
final stages of the Shanghai IES project, the             diversity
study team was commissioned by the municipal
government to prepare background reports for              China was revising its national Biodiversity
the air quality portion of Shanghai’s 10 th 5-year        Conservation Action Plan, adding new
plan. At the February, 2002 policy makers                 regulations on biosafety, alien invasive species,
workshop, representatives from both SEPA and              and access to and benefit sharing of genetic
the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau              resources, in an effort to incorporate biodiversity
confirmed the IES study influenced the                    conservation into the exploitation of resources in
development of this 5-year plan. Specifically,            west China, economic construction and
the Shanghai IES work identified particulate              development.
control as a high priority, influenced the setting
of 5-year goals for SO 2, NOX and PM10 and                China's National Tenth Five-Year (2001-2005)
 identified specific technologies and fuel mix            Plan for Environmental Protection specified an
goals for the Shanghai energy system. In                  investment of 50 billion yuan (6.1 billion dollars)
addition, municipal officials credited the IES            for priority biodiversity and eco-environment
work for improving coordination between energy,           projects, and 10 billion yuan (1.2 billion dollars)
environment and public health organizations in            for strengthening national basic capacity
Shanghai.                                                 building.

The IES program has demonstrated connections              China will also give priority to the conservation
between energy policies, greenhouse gas                   of 17 key regions that are of crucial importance
reductions and ancillary health benefits in China.        for global biological diversity protection,
This has raised awareness among health,                   including 11 land areas, three wetlands and
environment and policy experts in China on the            three ocean areas. Protection measures in such
interplay between these issues. Local air quality         regions will include the establishment of nature
decisions in Shanghai have already been                   reserves and bans on construction projects that
influenced by this work and similar results in            have the potential to cause pollution and the
Beijing are anticipated. For example, the early           scientific study, inspection and evaluation of
interconnection between the Beijing project and           biological diversity in the regions will be
the city’s broader efforts to prepare for the 2008        strengthened.
Olympiad shows great promise.
                                                          By the end of last year, the number of nature
Even greater opportunities for policy linkages to         reserves in China had reached 1,551, a big jump


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