In the spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror by ProQuest


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									                                                                         Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010       3
                                                                                               In the Spotlight

In the spotlight
The spring forecasts of the European Commission and IMF confirm the expectations that the global economy
is recovering gradually, albeit unevenly across regions and more slowly than after previous recessions. Both
institutions revised their autumn forecasts upwards slightly, particularly due to the faster recovery in developing
economies. The rebound has also been positively impacted by rapidly recovering world trade flows, better-than
expected conditions in financial markets and the movement of inventories. After declining by 0.6% last year, the
world economy will increase by 4.2% this year and 4.3% next year, according to IMF projections. Both institutions
find risks to be more balanced as in the autumn, but uncertainty regarding short-term prospects remains high,
particularly because the recovery is still mainly dependent on fiscal and monetary stimulus. The sovereign debt risk
and the risk of a loss of the ability to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finance have increased since the
autumn. Economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners will be modest this year, and the latest forecasts do
not diverge significantly from the assumptions in our Spring Forecast.

In the firsts two months of 2010, the short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia remained roughly
at the level of last autumn. Positive movements were recorded only for activities related to the international
environment, as amid a slight recovery in the international environment, February (like a few previous months)
saw a slight improvement in merchandise exports and industrial production in more export-oriented industries.
Domestic demand, in contrast, remained weak. After the increase in January, the value of construction put in place,
real turnover in trade, real turnover in hotels and restaurants, and nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined
again in
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