Early Estimates for numbers in the working age Income

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					Early Estimates for numbers in the working age Income Support Lone Parent (ISLP) client
group. Release Date: 14 October 2009.

National Statistics are available for quarters up to 28 February 2009. Final figures for the quarter
ending May 2009 will be released on 11 November 2009. The most recent National Statistics
show 736,040 individuals were in the ISLP client group at 28 February 2009. See:
http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/tabtool.asp

Early estimates are designed to give indicative, timely information and are not a substitute for the
National Statistics. The early estimates will be replaced when the final quarterly National Statistics
covering the same period are published. In Figure 1, below, the red line represents the monthly point
estimates and the black line represents the published National Statistics which are available up to
February 2009. For March 2009 through to August 2009 the finalised figures will be the National
Statistics, when released for the period, and they are expected to lie within the pale grey band.

The early estimate of the working age ISLP client group at 31 August is 710,000. This estimate is
given to the nearest 10,000 and the final National Statistics figure would be expected to be in the
range 700,000 to 720,000.

Figure 1: Published National Statistics up to February 2009 and the range for the Early
Estimates of numbers in working age ISLP client group: March 2009 to August 2009 (shaded
area represents range).

      790,000



      770,000



      750,000



      730,000



      710,000



      690,000



      670,000



      650,000
            Aug-06   Nov-06   Feb-07   May-07   Aug-07   Nov-07   Feb-08   May-08   Aug-08   Nov-08    Feb-09   May-09   Aug-09

           Table 1: Point estimate and range for early estimates March 2009 to August 2009
                                         National            Early
                                                                                     Estimated Range
                                         Statistics         Estimate
                     Time Series        Caseload-          Caseload-           Caseload-          Caseload-
                                        Number of          Number of           Number of          Number of
                                        Claimants          Claimants           Claimants          Claimants

                       May-08             738,640
                       Aug-08             744,690
                       Nov-08             728,980
                       Feb-09             736,040
                       Mar-09                                730,000            720,000               740,000
                       Apr-09                                720,000            710,000               730,000
                       May-09                                720,000            710,000               730,000
                       Jun-09                                710,000            700,000               720,000
                       Jul-09                                710,000            700,000               720,000
                       Aug-09                                710,000            700,000               720,000

Footnotes:
    1. Income Support Lone Parents: claimants on Income Support with child under 16 and no partner. From 24 November
        2008 lone parents who claim benefit solely on the grounds of being a lone parent and have a child aged 12 or over
        will no longer be entitled to Income support.
    2. Early estimates methodology: Technical document and question and answers document are available at
        http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/tabtool.asp
    3. Source data: DWP Information Directorate: Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study
    4. When the next quarterly National Statistics are published they will be included as the fourth quarterly National Statistic
        in Table 1, and all monthly early estimates included in this quarter will be removed from Table 1.
For further details please contact sarah.fulton@dwp.gsi.gov.uk                                   ISSN: 2042-0684