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PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
EuPD Shared Service
Bonn, May 2008
Agenda
A. Background and Approach
B. Industry Analysis
1. Products
2. Players
3. Purchasers
C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
Contact Information
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A. Background and Approach
3
A.1. Background
Industry Issues
Many established PV players are investing heavily in thin film technologies (e.g. Q-Cells, Sharp, SCHOTT),
and many new market participants are ramping up production facilities (e.g. Avancis, Malibu, Signet). According
to estimates from EuPD Research, global thin film production will grow faster than the global PV markets:
CAGR thin film capacity 2007-2010: 83%
CAGR crystalline capacity 2007-2010: 32%
CAGR global PV demand 2007-2010: 41%
Hence, the vital questions are: how realistic are the ambitious expansion plans of the PV thin film industry? Will
the thin film modules be able to compete with the crystalline competition in relevant existing market segments?
Which opportunities exist to open up new markets? Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace
with the production output boom?
Over the year 2008, a sequence of successive market entries can be expected. However, it can be expected that
not all the ramp-up announcements will be realized. At this stage of this evolving industry, first assessments on
the potential of the various thin film market entrants are possible.
The departure of the thin film technologies from their niche position is a very important development for the
global PV industry as well. For actors in this booming market, profound analysis and research backed prognosis
are crucial: after all, the wheat must still be separated from the chaff. The main trends are analyzed in this study.
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A.1. Background
Analytic Questions
The EuPD Research Industry Analysis PV Thin Film is a systematic analysis of the industry
structure and the competitive intensity within the PV thin film industry.
The main questions regarding products, production and purchasers are:
1. In which market segments are PV thin film modules substitute products to crystalline
modules?
2. What is the role of the supplier industry for the advancement of the industry?
3. Which roll do spill-over effects from neighboring industries play?
4. Which are the important thin film producers and what is the potential of the various market
entrants?
5. Which are the most promising country markets for PV thin film products?
6. Which are the main future trends regarding supply and demand of PV thin film modules?
7. How high is the competitive intensity of the industry?
8. Which are promising differentiation strategies?
9. Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace with the expected production
output boom?
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A.1. Background
Action
Contacting of 92 PV thin film companies.
Realization of interviews with ten thin film producers (100 percent of all producers) and 16 market
.
entrants (approximately 20 percent of all entrants)
Field time: January and February 2008.
Approach
Questionnaire with 30 questions.
Detailed questions on company development and industry structure.
Operationalization of Porter’s Five Industry Forces Analysis through methodological items.
Results
Exclusive quantitative data on the assessment of the industry drivers in the PV thin film segment.
Quantification of the intensity of rivalry among existing players, the threat of new entrants and
substitute products, as well as of the bargaining power of suppliers and customers.
As the analysis is based on both, secondary and primary data, the survey results
are labeled with this EuPD icon.
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A.1. Research Approach: Survey Participants
Source: EuPD Research 2008 26 companies
participated in the
Plant construction/ Pilot Production Production >5MW Production >25MW Current quantitative
R&D
Ramp-Up development
survey:
status
2006 (or earlier) Avancis (GER)
Uni-Solar Calyxo (GER)
SANYO Kaneka First Solar CIS Solar (GER)
Mitsubishi CSG Solar (GER)
Würth Heavy ersol (GER)
SHARP
2007 First Solar (US)
Free Energy (FR)
Genesis (HU/ESP)
Honda Honda (JP)
SCHOTT
Free Energy ersol
Johanna (GER)
2008 Avancis Kaneka (JP)
Kenmos (TW)
Malibu
Johanna Sontor Lambda (MEX)
Signet Malibu (GER)
NexPower
Calyxo Mitsubishi Heavy
Lambda Kenmos CSG
Industries (JP)
2009 Solar Plus
NexPower (TW)
Producers
Scheuten PV Flex (GER)
a-Si/Tandem SANYO (JP) )
Genesis CdTe Scheuten (NL)
CIS Solartechnik CIS/CIGS
SCHOTT (GER)
2010 (or later)
SHARP (JP)
Entrants Signet Solar (US)
PV Flex a-Si/Tandem Solar Plus (PT)
CdTe Sontor (GER)
CIS/CIGS Uni-Solar (US)
Year of market entry (expected) Würth (GER)
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B. Industry Analysis
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B.1. Background: PV Technology Waves
This schematic
Source: EuPD Research 2008
DegreeDegreeof marketdiffusion
of market diffusion EuPD
Quelle: Research 2008 illustration shows
the three PV
100 %
100 % technology
groups: crystal-
line, thin film and
mass production
crystalline
organic PV.
crystalline
c-Si, mc-Si thin film c-Si, mc-Si
crystalline
c-Si, mc-Si a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe While the
crystalline modules
thin film can be expected to
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe
rather stagnate in
thin film the future, the
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe organic
nanocrystalline cows
Cash new technologies
00%
% will contribute to
organic the growing
nanocrystalline product dif-
organic
nanocrystalline ferentiation in the
PV industry.
R&D
2007 2010 2015 time
Time
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B.1. Products: Further Analysis
Production costs Price elasticity
Research Topics
Evaluation of the degree of product
differentiation between the different PV thin
film products.
Definition of the substitutability between
crystalline and thin film modules.
Learning curve for production costs of thin film
technologies.
Differentiation:
Definition of the threat of substitute products.
operational behavior
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B.2. Global PV Thin Film Production 2007 and 2010
In 2010, around
fifty percent of the
PV thin film
modules can be
expected come
from Asia.
Europe, especially
Eastern Germany,
has the potential
to develop further
as one of the most
important
production sites as
well as technology
clusters.
U.S. American
companies are
expected to
continue to play an
important role as
technology leaders
(First Solar, Uni-
Solar and
Nanosolar).
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B.2. Producers: Further Analyses
The three turnkey providers Company potential rating
Research Topics
Industry structure on the supply side of the PV
thin film production.
Analysis of the PV thin film producers and
market entrants regarding strategy, industry
concentration and regional spreading.
Multidimensional company rating.
Definition of the rivalry among existing
producers.
Positioning of companies
on the EuPD strategy matrix Assessment of the threat of new entrants.
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B.3. BCG Matrix of Country Markets
A comparison of
the world’s Top
Eleven markets
was calculated by
300% applying the
Question Marks Stars
conventional BCG
Matrix to the
250%
Spain global PV markets.
The relative
200% market share is
Portugal
Greece calculated in
South Korea
relation to the
150% German leading
India
Italy China South Korea market.
Portugal Germany
100% India
The general trend
France Italy USA
is a movement
Greece from the
China France 50%
USA Japan “Question Mark”
field to the “Stars”
Spain
0% Japan Germany segment.
0.1 1.0 10.0
However, Germany
Diameter: Market volume (newly installed MW)
-50%
x-coordinate: relative market share (logarithmic)
and Spain are
y-coordinate: CAGR 2004-2007 resp. 2007-2010e expected to lower
Poor Dogs Cash Cows
to the Cash Cow
-100%
level, whereas
2007 2010e
Japan and the US
are expected to
accelerate their
market growth.
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B.3. Purchasers: Further Analyses
Analysis and ranking of Detailed market
17 country markets information
Research Topics
Prognosis on the future development of the
most relevant global PV markets.
Evidence on respective the market
segmentation.
Assessments on the PV thin film potential per
market.
Market segmentation Multidimensional rating of the top 15 country /
per technology state markets.
Assessment of the bargaining power of the
customers.
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C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
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C. Results: Porters Five Forces Industry Analysis
The analytic tool
developed by
Michael E. Porter
divides the driving
Competitors New entrants
factors of an
Rivalry among Threat of industry into five
producers new entrants forces:
existing
manufacturers,
market entrants,
substitute
products,
suppliers and
Competitive intensity customers.
of PV thin film industry
Each competitive
force is being
analyzed. Taken
together, the
assessment gives a
holistic picture of
the current market
Customers situation.
Substitutes
Bargaining power Threat of substitute
of customers products
Suppliers
Bargaining power of
suppliers
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C. Results: Competitive Intensity
Porter’s Industry Development of global PV
Analysis 2008 and 2010 production and demand
Research Topics
Assessment of the competitive intensity of the
PV thin film industry by applying a Porter’s Five
Forces Analysis.
Evaluation of the estimations on global
production output with regard to the
development of demand.
Development of scenarios on the further
Connecting points for
strategy formulation market development.
Identification of connecting points for strategy
formulation.
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D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
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D.1. Unique Selling Proposition
The EuPD Research PV Thin Film Industry Analysis delivers…
Assessments on the international PV thin film markets with a long-standing research background
in the photovoltaic industry.
Reliable evidence on the basis of a quantitative survey with all important companies.
Systematic analyses of the competitive intensity of the industry.
Special focus on the developments on the demand side.
Connection points for strategy formulation and implementation.
Study Highlights
Profound information on the industry players, the sales markets and the supplying companies.
Capability rating of the established companies and new entrants.
Country market potential rating.
Quantification of Porter’s Five Forces.
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Agenda: Industry Analysis PV Thin Film
A. Preliminary Notes D. Purchasers
1. Background 1. Market Segmentation
2. Research Approach 1.1 Customer Group Segmentation
1.2 Geographic Segmentation
B. Products 2. Country Market Potential Analysis
1. Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Product Differentiation 2.1 Overview and Potential Rating
2. Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Price Differentiation 2.2 Country Markets in Europe, USA and Asia
3. Global Demand for PV 2007-2010
C. Production
1. Supply Side E. Porter Analysis
1.1 Production Processes and Spillover Effects 1. Competitive Intensity
1.2 Supply Companies and Industry Concentration 2. Strategic Options
1.3 Outlook on Security of Supply
2. Producers Appendix: Country Profile Sheets
2.1 Production Clusters 2007 – 2010
2.2 Market Shares and Degree of Concentration 2007 – 2010 Editorial
2.3 Brand Awareness of Producers and Entrants
2.4 Strategic Groups of Producers and Entrants
2.5 EuPD Company Capability Rating
3. PV Thin Film Production Output 2007 - 2010
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D. Contact Information
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Editorial
EuPD Research
Adenauerallee 134
53113 Bonn
Telephone +49 (0) 228-971 43-0
Fax +49 (0) 228-971 43-11
info@eupd-research.com
www.eupd-research.com
Contact
Markus Wackerbeck
Head Energy and Utilities
m.wackerbeck@eupd-research.com
Stephan Franz
Project Manager
s.franz@eupd-research.com
EuPD Research® is a brand of HOEHNER RESEARCH & CONSULTING GROUP GmbH.
Member of ESOMAR World Research
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