[...] must be the credible prospect, endorsed by China and Russia and many other major trading countries, as well as the EU, of a big freeze in Iran's relations with outside powers including wider sanctions, especially on arms, if it remains obdurate on key issues, such as coming clean on all its past activities and applying the Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to its safeguards agreement, or if it were to cheat on a negotiated agreement. * at the end of the day, the Six are going to have to shift their emphasis from denying enrichment to thorough monitoring of the facilities of an enrichment-capable Iran, to ensure against diversion of nuclear material and make it much harder for a future government to resume weaponisation. * the Six should be more forward in working in the region for Gulf-wide security understandings. * the excessively black and white views of many politicians in both Iran and the US, and the extreme stereotypes they propagate about the other, have been huge obstacles to rational public discussion on policy - among US leaders, between the US and Iran, between the US and its allies, and between the Six and Iran. * the new President should initiate direct contacts with Iran later next year to agree an agenda for talks on the full range of issues separating the two countries and a progressive reduction of tensions.
THEWORLDTODAY.ORG NOVEMBER 2008 PAGE 18 IRAN Sir Richard Dalton, FORMER BRITISH AMBASSADOR TO IRAN, ASSOCIATE FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE, IS WORKING Lookıng for a Thaw i An air of lassitude pervades the Iranian nuclear talks. Will things RAN IS PRESSING ON WITH ITS URANIUM enrichment programme. Sanctions are look different after the American increasing Tehran’s costs for doing business election? What should be done to internationally, but are not painful enough to force a re-think. Meanwhile, the United raise the chances of a good outcome? Nations Security Council is unanimous in insisting that Iran should suspend enrichment and heavy water reactor work. And the Six, Britain, | INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THEWORLDTODAY.ORG NOVEMBER 2008 PAGE 19 ON A SPECIAL REPORT ON IRAN China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United towards full self-sufficiency in the nuclear industry.’ States – the five permanent members of the Security So their policy is to: Council plus Germany – keep putting forward their • maximise scientific and industrial progress freeze-for-freeze proposal – no new sanctions, no • cooperate to a degree with the International new enrichment facilities brought on stream – as a Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and so neutralise the way for Iran to, first, suspend fully and verifiably technical case for doubting their assurances of while saving face, and then enter a full negotiation. peaceful intent • play along with the desultory talks about talks conducted by the EU’s Javier Solana for the Six A M E R ICA N E L ECT IO N S • angle for negotiations without preconditions with Across the Atlantic, Iran policy is a feature of the the Six, including the US presidential election campaign, but in a superficial • stand their ground meanwhile, in the hope that a way. Barack Obama on the Democrat side says he new US administration will come up with something would authorise negotiations with Iran, but cannot advantageous say how he would hope to advance matters, for fear • avert new sanctions of exposing too much flank. For the Republicans, • proclaim military readiness with the aim of John McCain and Sarah Palin ridicule Obama’s stand making military action look extremely risky to to berate him for inexperience and naivety and argue Israel’s supporters. Israel would be in jeopardy if America talked to Iran. No one can say whether or by when Obama’s team might have a fully-worked policy, though there are O PT IO N S FO R T H E S I X squadrons of experts and former statesmen at his The opti
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