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									THEWORLDTODAY.ORG NOVEMBER 2008
PAGE 18
          IRAN
          Sir Richard Dalton, FORMER BRITISH AMBASSADOR TO IRAN, ASSOCIATE FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE, IS WORKING




          Lookıng
          for a Thaw
                                                                            i
                          An air of lassitude pervades the
                       Iranian nuclear talks. Will things                           RAN IS PRESSING ON WITH ITS URANIUM
                                                                                     enrichment programme. Sanctions are
                        look different after the American                            increasing Tehran’s costs for doing business
                       election? What should be done to                              internationally, but are not painful enough
                                                                                     to force a re-think. Meanwhile, the United
                   raise the chances of a good outcome?                              Nations Security Council is unanimous in
                                                                            insisting that Iran should suspend enrichment and
                                                                            heavy water reactor work. And the Six, Britain,


                          | INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
                                                                                     THEWORLDTODAY.ORG NOVEMBER 2008
                                                                                                                                                              PAGE 19

ON A SPECIAL REPORT ON IRAN




         China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United             towards full self-sufficiency in the nuclear industry.’
         States – the five permanent members of the Security           So their policy is to:
         Council plus Germany – keep putting forward their          •  maximise scientific and industrial progress
         freeze-for-freeze proposal – no new sanctions, no          •  cooperate to a degree with the International
         new enrichment facilities brought on stream – as a         Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and so neutralise the
         way for Iran to, first, suspend fully and verifiably       technical case for doubting their assurances of
         while saving face, and then enter a full negotiation.      peaceful intent
                                                                    •  play along with the desultory talks about talks
                                                                    conducted by the EU’s Javier Solana for the Six
         A M E R ICA N E L ECT IO N S                               •  angle for negotiations without preconditions with
            Across the Atlantic, Iran policy is a feature of the    the Six, including the US
         presidential election campaign, but in a superficial       •  stand their ground meanwhile, in the hope that a
         way. Barack Obama on the Democrat side says he             new US administration will come up with something
         would authorise negotiations with Iran, but cannot         advantageous
         say how he would hope to advance matters, for fear         •  avert new sanctions
         of exposing too much flank. For the Republicans,           •  proclaim military readiness with the aim of
         John McCain and Sarah Palin ridicule Obama’s stand         making military action look extremely risky to
         to berate him for inexperience and naivety and argue       Israel’s supporters.
         Israel would be in jeopardy if America talked to Iran.
            No one can say whether or by when Obama’s team
         might have a fully-worked policy, though there are         O PT IO N S FO R T H E S I X
         squadrons of experts and former statesmen at his              The opti
								
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