ISP 452 THE CAUSES OFGREAT POWER WAR: WORLD WAR I, WORLD WAR II, AND WORLD WAR III? Fall, 1.0 credit Tuesday-Thursday, 10:10-11:30 am L-332 Syllabus version as of December 3, 2007 Richard Rosecrance This course looks at the causes of World Wars I and II (theoretical, economic, social, political, and military to see if they might apply to war between China (or some other Great Power) and the United States in the 2020s or afterward. Prior to World War I, one great Power was in process of passing another, assumptions of warfare permitted offensive strategies, strong economic interdependence existed, and domestic unrest led some leaders to believe they might gain internal support from a successful war. Britain went to great lengths to appease the United States at the very time it was opposing Germany. Will the United States be willing to make a similar obeisance to nondemocratic China a generation from now? Prior to World War II Hitler and the Japanese militarists took extraordinary risks when they attacked enemies they could not possibly defeat and sought to use more power than they actually possessed. Deterrence did not work then and it might not work in the future. An expanding China might need more reassurance than a possibly declining United States could provide. The key question for the course is to consider future international circumstances which might tempt war and ask: how do we prevent it? There will be three papers, no final exam. The first will be concentrated on World War I (2000) words; The second on World War II (2000 words); the third on World War III(?) (3000 words). The required books are: Dale Copeland, The Origins of Major War (Cornell Press, 2000) and Niall Ferguson, The War of the World (Penguin, 2006). Other readings will be in packets available from CMO. We also expect experts to address the class from time to time.
Session 1, Thursday, September 13: Introduction • N. Ferguson—War of the World, Introduction [Book]
WORLD WAR I
Session 2, Tuesday, September 18: Power Theories
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Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), “Introduction,” pp. 1-28, and Chapter 2, "Anarchy and the Struggle for Power", pp. 29-54. [Course Pack] D. Copeland, The Origins of Major War, Chaps 1-4, 12 [Book].
Session 3, Thursday, September 20: Economic Theories • • Gilpin, Robert, “Stability and Change,” War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), chapter 2, pp. 50-105. [Course Pack] Eichengreen, Barry J., “Conclusion,” in Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), pp. 390399. [Course Pack] Eichengreen, Barry J., “The Gold Standard,” in Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), chapter 2, pp. 7-44. [Course Pack]
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Session 4, Tuesday, September 25: Inevitability • Kennedy, Paul, “Introduction,” The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Vintage Books, 1989), pp. xv-xxv. [Course Pack]
Session 5, Thursday, September 27: Domestic Politics • Rosecrance, Richard and Zara Steiner, “Conclusion,” forthcoming in The New Realism, Richard Rosecrance, Ernest May and Zara Steiner, editors. [Handout]
Session 6, Tuesday, October 2: Military Theories • Trachtenberg, Marc, “The Coming of the First World War: A Reassessment,” History and Strategy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), Chapter 2, pp. 47-99. [Course Pack] Van Evera, Stephen, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War," International Security, 9/1 (Summer, 1984), pp. 58-107. [Course Pack] Quester, George H., Offense and Defense in the International System, (New York: Transaction Books, 1977), "Offense and Defense", pp. 1-12. [Course Pack] Stevenson, David, "Strategic and Military Planning, 1871-1914," in Imlay, Talbot C. and Monica Duffy Toft, The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty (New York: Routledge, 2006), chapter 5, pp. 75-99. [Course Pack]
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WORLD WAR II--
Session 7, Thursday, October 4: Theories of History.
• N. Ferguson, chaps 1-10 [Book] First paper due Session 8, Tuesday, October 9: Economics • Eichengreen, Barry J., Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), Chapter 3, “Interwar Instability,” pp. 45-92. [Course Pack] Kindleberger, C., World Economic Primacy, 1500 to 1990 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 138-148, 161-165. [Course Pack] Kindleberger, Charles, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises [3rd edition], (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1996), Chapter 2, pp. 11-19, "Anatomy of a Typical Crisis"; and Chapter 4, “Fueling the Flames: Monetary Expansion,” pp. 44-65. [Course Pack]
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Session 9, Thursday, Oct 11: Power Theories • • Copeland, Chap 5 [Book]; Mearsheimer, John J., “Great Powers in Action,” The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), chapter 6, pp. 168-233. [On Closed Reserve at KSG Library]
Session 10, Tuesday, October 16: Domestic Politics • Snyder, Jack L., “Three Theories of Overexpansion,” Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), Chapter 2, pp. 21-65. [Course Pack] Steiner, Zara, “Britain in 1914 and 1939,” forthcoming in The New Realism, Richard Rosecrance, Ernest May and Zara Steiner, editors. [Course Pack]
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Session 11, Thursday, October 18: Military Theories • Christensen, Thomas J. and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," International Organization, 44/2 (Spring, 1990), pp. 137-168. [Course Pack]
Session 12, Tuesday, October 23: Failure of Prevention • • Lukacs, John, “Hitler,” in June 1941: Hitler and Stalin (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006), pp. 7-41. [Course Pack] Kershaw, Ian, Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions that Changed the World, 1940-1941 (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp. 38-48; 100-128; 480-483. [Course Pack]
Session 13, Thursday, October 25: Why Cold War Did Not Lead to Hot War
Gaddis, John Lewis, “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System,” The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987), chapter 8, pp. 215-245. [Course Pack] • Larson, Deborah, and Alexei Shevchenko, "Mikhail Gorbachev and the Role of Emulation and Status Incentives," in Rosecrance, Richard, editor, The New Great Power Coalition: Toward a World Concert of Nations (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2001). [Handout] • Roberts, Adam, “An ‘Incredibly Swift Transition’: Reflections on the End of the Cold War,” forthcoming in The Cambridge History of the Cold War – draft of 15 May 2007. [Course Pack] • Imlay, Talbot C. and Monica Duffy Toft, “Conclusion: Seven Lessons about the Fog of Peace,” The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty (New York: Routledge, 2006), chapter 13, pp. 249-260. [Course Pack] • Brown, Archie, Seven Years that Changed the World: Perestroika in Perspective (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), Chapters 7-9, pp. 191-276. [Pages 191237 in Course Pack; pages 239-276 on Closed Reserve in KSG Library] • Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), pp. 201-202. [In Course Pack Readings for Session 8] Second paper due •
WORLD WAR III?--
Session 14, Tuesday, October 30: Domestic Issues • • T Saich, China [Handout] Ezra Vogel, Deng Xaoiping [Handout]
Session 15, Thursday, November 1: Economic Issues • • Summers, Lawrence, "History Holds Lessons for China and its Partners", Financial Times, February 26, 2007, pp. 17. [Course Pack] Fallows, James, "China Makes, The World Takes", Atlantic Monthly, July/August, 2007, pp. 48-72. [Course Pack]
Session 16, Tuesday, November 6: Historical Pressures • May, Ernest, Some Background, Aspen Institute Paper, August 2006. [Course Pack]
Session 17, Thursday, November 8: Failures of Empire • Ferguson, Epilogue [Book]
Session 18, Tuesday, November 13: Sectarian Dissent • Toft, Monica paper [Handout]
Session 19, Thursday, November 15: Military Issues • • Carter, Ashton B. and William J. Perry, China's Rise In American Military Strategy, (Cambridge, 2006), pp. 1-10. [Course Pack] Lieber, Keir A. and Daryl G. Press, "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy," Foreign Affairs, 85/2 (March/April 2006), 42-54. [Course Pack]
Session 20, Tuesday, November 20: Mergers • Rosecrance, Richard, manuscript on mergers [Handout]
Session 21, Tuesday, November 27: Leadership? • Kershaw, Ian, Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions that Changed the World, 1940-1941 (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp. 471-483 [In Course Pack Readings for Session 12] Smith, Jean Edward, FDR (New York: Random House, 2007), Chapter 24. [Handout]
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Session 22, Thursday, November 29: Terrorism • Allison, Graham, “U.S. and China: Prospects for War and Peace” [Handout]
Session 23, Tuesday, December 4: Concert? • Rosecrance, Richard, “A Grand Coalition and International Governance,” Research Report, Centre for International Governance Innovation. [Course Pack]
Session 24, Thursday, December 6: Conclusion Final paper due