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					Probability and Chance




       Ms. Logue
     5th grade Math
               Probability
 Probability is a measure of how likely it is
  for an event to happen.
 We name a probability with a number from
  0 to 1.
 If an event is certain to happen, then the
  probability of the event is 1.
 If an event is certain not to happen, then the
  probability of the event is 0.
                 Probability
   If it is uncertain whether or not an event
    will happen, then its probability is some
    fraction between 0 and 1 (or a fraction
    converted to a decimal number).
B    A      1. What is the probability that the spinner
C    D      will stop on part A?


             2. What is the probability that the
3       1        spinner will stop on
    2        (a) An even number?
             (b) An odd number?


    A        3. What fraction names the
C B          probability that the spinner will
             stop in the area marked A?
     Probability Fishing game!
   Click to play BBC Education-Maths File-
    Fish Tank
                     CHANCE
      Chance is how likely it is that something
       will happen. To state a chance, we use a
       percent.
  0                           ½                      1

                           Probability


                      Equally likely to
                      happen or not to happen   Certain to
Certain not
to happen                                       happen


                             Chance

                               50 %
  0%                                               100%
                     Chance
   When a meteorologist states that the chance
    of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying
    that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain.
    If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
    likely to rain. If the chance drops to 20%,
    then it may rain, but it probably will not
    rain.
             It’s Probably Time For
                     M&M’s !!
 Testable Question: Which color is most
  likely to be picked at random from a bag
  of M&M’s?
 Hypothesis:


 Take one bag of M&M's.
 Count the total number in the bag.
 Separate the M&M's into each color.
            Collecting Data
 You should have a red, yellow, orange, green,
  blue, and brown pile.
  Count how many M&M's are in each pile.
 Remember to organize your data in a table.
 Which color has the largest quantity?
  Which color has the smallest quantity?
  Is this what you expected to find? Why or why
  not?
           CALCULATE THE MEDIAN, MODE, AND
           RANGE OF THESE NUMBERS
       Collecting & Analyzing Data
          Creating Data Tables
   Calculate the probability of picking a certain color of M&M for
    each color category.
   The probability is found by creating a fraction,
    The number of M&M's in a color is placed in the numerator, the
    total number of M&M's is placed in the denominator.
   Example: If there are 6 red M&M's and 54 total M&M's. The
    probability of picking a red M&M is 6/54.
   Remember the more likely something is, the closer to 1 the
    probability will be.
   What color is most likely? Which one is least likely?
    Are there any that are equally likely? (This means the probabilities are
    the same.)
           What if you had….
   Look at the ratio for blue. What is the
    probability you would find a blue M&M in
    a handful of, say, 50 total M&Ms? 100?

   Consider this for each color. Include in your
    notes the probability for each color using
    the numbers above.
       Display Your Results
 Create a bar graph reflecting your findings.
 Make sure to label each axis & give it a
  title
            Pull It All Together
   On a large sheet of paper, display the following:
   Data table for each color (Headings:
    color/amount)
   Probability of drawing each color at random from
    the bag (fraction form)
   Expected probability with different amounts of
    M&Ms
   Most Likely, Least Likely, Equally Likely?
   Median, mode and range of your data
   Bar Graph of colors data
                    Game
   http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/ks2bitesize/m
    aths/data/probability/play.shtml


            Probability Questions
   Lawrence is the captain of his track team.
    The team is deciding on a color and all eight
    members wrote their choice down on equal
    size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at
    random, what is the probability that he will
    pick blue?
     blue                      blue
                 green        black
    yellow
                 blue
     red                      black
    Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1
     to 6. Which of the following is LEAST
     LIKELY?
A.   an even number
B.   an odd number
C.   a number greater than 5
1 2     1. What is the chance of spinning a
4 3     number greater than 1?

 4 1    2. What is the chance of spinning a
2   3      4?
  5     3. What is the chance that the
           spinner will stop on an odd
           number?
        4. What is the chance of rolling an even
        number with one toss of on number cube?

				
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