Probability and Chance
5th grade Math
Probability is a measure of how likely it is
for an event to happen.
We name a probability with a number from
0 to 1.
If an event is certain to happen, then the
probability of the event is 1.
If an event is certain not to happen, then the
probability of the event is 0.
If it is uncertain whether or not an event
will happen, then its probability is some
fraction between 0 and 1 (or a fraction
converted to a decimal number).
B A 1. What is the probability that the spinner
C D will stop on part A?
2. What is the probability that the
3 1 spinner will stop on
2 (a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?
A 3. What fraction names the
C B probability that the spinner will
stop in the area marked A?
Probability Fishing game!
Click to play BBC Education-Maths File-
Chance is how likely it is that something
will happen. To state a chance, we use a
0 ½ 1
Equally likely to
happen or not to happen Certain to
to happen happen
When a meteorologist states that the chance
of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying
that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain.
If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
likely to rain. If the chance drops to 20%,
then it may rain, but it probably will not
It’s Probably Time For
Testable Question: Which color is most
likely to be picked at random from a bag
Take one bag of M&M's.
Count the total number in the bag.
Separate the M&M's into each color.
You should have a red, yellow, orange, green,
blue, and brown pile.
Count how many M&M's are in each pile.
Remember to organize your data in a table.
Which color has the largest quantity?
Which color has the smallest quantity?
Is this what you expected to find? Why or why
CALCULATE THE MEDIAN, MODE, AND
RANGE OF THESE NUMBERS
Collecting & Analyzing Data
Creating Data Tables
Calculate the probability of picking a certain color of M&M for
each color category.
The probability is found by creating a fraction,
The number of M&M's in a color is placed in the numerator, the
total number of M&M's is placed in the denominator.
Example: If there are 6 red M&M's and 54 total M&M's. The
probability of picking a red M&M is 6/54.
Remember the more likely something is, the closer to 1 the
probability will be.
What color is most likely? Which one is least likely?
Are there any that are equally likely? (This means the probabilities are
What if you had….
Look at the ratio for blue. What is the
probability you would find a blue M&M in
a handful of, say, 50 total M&Ms? 100?
Consider this for each color. Include in your
notes the probability for each color using
the numbers above.
Display Your Results
Create a bar graph reflecting your findings.
Make sure to label each axis & give it a
Pull It All Together
On a large sheet of paper, display the following:
Data table for each color (Headings:
Probability of drawing each color at random from
the bag (fraction form)
Expected probability with different amounts of
Most Likely, Least Likely, Equally Likely?
Median, mode and range of your data
Bar Graph of colors data
Lawrence is the captain of his track team.
The team is deciding on a color and all eight
members wrote their choice down on equal
size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at
random, what is the probability that he will
Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1
to 6. Which of the following is LEAST
A. an even number
B. an odd number
C. a number greater than 5
1 2 1. What is the chance of spinning a
4 3 number greater than 1?
4 1 2. What is the chance of spinning a
2 3 4?
5 3. What is the chance that the
spinner will stop on an odd
4. What is the chance of rolling an even
number with one toss of on number cube?