EELV by keara


									Space Systems Forecast


                                                                                 10 Year Unit Production Forecast
Outlook                                                                                             2004 - 2013
   EELV Program Clears Nunn-McCurdy Review                                          Units

   U.S. House and Senate are likely to reduce the EELV procurement              8
    request for FY05 (see Funding section)                                       6

    EELV production to rise in latter half of decade to serve                    3

    Transformational Communications System (TCS) & Optical Relay                 2
    Communications Architecture (ORCA) launch requirements                       0
                                                                                     2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
                                                                                      5    6    5    6    7    6    8    8    8    8

Description. The Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle            Application. EELV boosters launch U.S. government
(EELV) is a class of rocket, built under a U.S. Air Force     payloads previously serviced by Titan II, Delta II,
contract, to launch medium and heavy military                 Atlas II, and Titan IV.
                                                              Price Range. The Pentagon expected the EELV
Sponsor. Air Force Space and Missile Systems                  program to reduce the cost of placing military payloads
Center, Los Angeles, California, is responsible for           into orbit by 25 to 50 percent. Instead, costs have grown
EELV development and procurement.                             26 percent from FY04 to FY05. Average EELV launch
                                                              costs vary, depending on the vehicle’s configuration.
Status. Atlas V and Delta IV EELVs successfully
                                                              Based on a 117-unit buy, the Pentagon will pay an
debuted in late 2002 and are in operational service.
                                                              average of about US$149.6 million for each EELV.
Total Produced. Approximately four Delta IVs and
four Atlas Vs have been produced.

Lockheed Martin Space Systems - Sunnyvale,, 1111 Lockheed Martin Way,                  Sunnyvale,          CA
  94088-3504 United States, Tel: 1 (408) 742-7151, Fax: 1 (408) 742-8484, Prime
Boeing Company, Corporate HQ,, 100 North Riverside, Chicago,                    IL     60606 United States,
  Tel: 1 (312) 544-2000, Fax: 1 (206) 655-1177, Email:, Prime
NPO Energomash JSC,, 1, Burdenko St, Khimki, 141400 Russia, Tel: 7 095 572 2200,
  Fax: 7 095 251 7504, Email: (RD-180 Engine)
Saab Ericsson Space AB,, S-405 15, Goteborg, SE-405 15 Sweden, Tel: 46 31 735000, Fax: 46 31 735400
  (Low Shock Separation System)
BAE Systems North America - Platform Solutions, Aerospace Controls,,
  600 Main Street, Johnson City, NY 13790-1888 United States, Tel: 1 (607) 770-2000, Fax: 1 (607) 770-3524 (Upper Stage
  Remote Control)
Contraves Space, Schaffhauserstr 580, Zurich,      CH-8052 Switzerland,    Tel: 41 1 306 2211,              Fax: 41 1 306 3865,
  Email: (Fairing)
Pratt & Whitney Space Propulsion, PO Box 109600, West Palm Beach, FL 33410 United States, Tel: 1 (561) 796-6796,
  Fax: 1 (561) 796-7285, Email: (Delta III Rl10B-2 Cryogenic Upper Stage Engine)
Honeywell Defense Avionics Systems,, 699 Route 46, Teterboro, NJ 07068 United States,
  Tel: 1 (201) 288-2000, Fax: 1 (201) 393-6610 (Redundant Inertial Flight Control Assembly)

                                                                                                                        August 2004
EELV, Page 2                                                                                 Space Systems Forecast

Alliant Techsystems - ATK Composites, Utah Composites Center,, PO BOX 160433, BLDG C-14, Freeport
   Center, Clearfield, UT 84016 United States, Tel: 1 (801) 775-1014, Fax: 1 (801) 775-1681 (Composite Thermal Shields;
   Interstages, Centerbodies, Aeroskirts, Payload Adapters & Fairings, Nose Cones, Centaur Interstage Adapters)
Boeing Canoga Park, Boeing Rocketdyne Propulsion & Power, 6633 Canoga Avenue, Box 7922, Canoga Park, CA 91309 United
  States, Tel: 1 (818) 586-4572 (First Stage Main Engine)

                                             Technical Data
Design Features                                              Lockheed Martin Atlas V. The Atlas V EELV family
Boeing Delta IV. There are five rockets in the Delta IV      consists of the 400 and 500 series. Payload capabilities
EELV family: the Medium lift, three Medium-Pluses,           range from 4,050 to 8,670 kilograms to GTO. Plans for
and the Heavy lift. A small series was planned and then      Atlas V Light and Heavy versions were canceled. All
later canceled. Payload capabilities range from 4,210 to     Atlas Vs feature a number of common elements,
13,130 kilograms carried to geosynchronous transfer          including a 3.8-meter-diameter, 27.15-meter-tall
orbit (GTO). All five use a common booster core stage        common core booster stage powered by a Russian NPO
(CBC) powered by the RS-68 engine produced by the            Energomash RD-180 engine, a Centaur upper stage,
company’s Rocketdyne Division.           Burning liquid      standard commercial payload adapters, and standard
hydrogen and liquid oxygen, the 2,900 kN engine is 30        commercial avionics. The RD-180 is a derivative of
percent more efficient than conventional liquid oxygen/      NPO-EM’s RD-170, a mature, high-performance
kerosene engines, and has 80 percent fewer moving            rocket-booster propulsion system, and it uses about 70
parts than a Space Shuttle main engine. Modified             percent of the same parts. The staged combustion cycle
Boeing Delta upper stages are added to the CBC to            RD-180 engine burns liquid oxygen and kerosene to
complete each vehicle, along with Delta common               produce 3,827 kN (860,400 lbst) at sea level. It has a
hardware and software.                                       311-per-second specific impulse and throttle range of 50
                                                             to 100 percent.
The Air Force selected the Delta IV Medium and Heavy
vehicles as part of its EELV initial launch services         The Atlas V 400 series rockets use the payload fairing
award. The Delta IV Medium, which can lift 4,210             developed for the Atlas II and III families. An optional
kilograms to GTO, adds a modified Delta III cryogenic        dual-engine Centaur configuration provides additional
second stage and a 4-meter-diameter composite fairing        performance capabilities for low to intermediate orbits.
for payload protection.                                      Performance of the 400 series vehicles can be tailored
                                                             by incorporating up to three solid rocket boosters. The
The three Delta IV Medium-Plus vehicles use the CBC
                                                             Atlas V 401, 402 and 431 variants can place payloads
and either two or four solid rocket strap-on motors.
                                                             weighing from 4,050 kilograms up to 7,640 kilograms
These vehicles are designated first by the diameter in
                                                             into GTO.
meters of the upper stage and payload fairing, and then
by the number of strap-ons added. The Delta IV               The Atlas V 500 series launch vehicle is larger, with a
Medium-Plus (4,2) can lift 5,845 kilograms to GTO; the       5-meter-diameter (4.57-meter usable diameter) payload
Medium-Plus (5,2), up to 4,640 kilograms to GTO; and         fairing (with two length options) and solid rocket
the Medium-Plus (5,4), up to 6,565 kilograms to GTO.         boosters. Like the Atlas V400, these too have a
The Delta IV Medium-Plus (4,2) vehicle uses the same         dual-engine Centaur configuration for additional
second stage and tanks as the Delta IV Medium. The           performance, but can be further augmented with up to
Delta IV Medium-Plus (5,2) and Medium-Plus (5,4)             five solid rocket boosters. The 500s also have optional
vehicles use the same engine as the Delta IV Medium,         three-burn Centaur missions, for direct insertion into
but have larger fuel and oxidizer tanks.                     geosynchronous or geostationary orbits, and significant
                                                             performance improvements to GTO. The 501 and 502
The Delta IV Heavy is designed to lift up to 13,130
                                                             versions can carry up to 3,970 kilograms to GTO, while
kilograms (28,950 lb) to GTO. It joins three CBCs
                                                             the heavier 531 and 532 Atlases can lift up to
together for lift-off and uses the larger model
                                                             8,670-kilogram payloads to GTO.
Medium-Plus second-stage engine and tanks with a
similar 5-meter (16.7-ft) diameter payload fairing.          Lockheed Martin currently launches the Atlas V EELVs
                                                             from the Cape Canaveral Air Station in Florida;
Boeing launches its Delta IV EELVs from both Cape
                                                             however, a West Coast facility is in the pipe for
Canaveral Air Station, Florida (geosynchronous
                                                             Lockheed Martin.
payloads), and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California
(for low-Earth, polar orbiting payloads).

August 2004
Space Systems Forecast                                                                              EELV, Page 3

Delta IV. Medium (1), Medium-Plus (3) and Heavy (1)
Atlas V. Atlas V 401/402 and 431; Atlas V 501/502 and 551/552

                                           Program Review
Background. After years of failed efforts and millions      McDonnell Douglas in December 1996. Both received
of dollars in expenses, the United States has developed a   US$60 million contracts for the 17-month Pre-EMD
new, more affordable family of expendable launch            effort.
vehicles for the 21st century. USAF’s Space and
                                                            In 1998, the Air Force awarded four more contracts,
Missile Systems Center released a Request for
                                                            valued at a total of US$3.03 billion. Lockheed Martin
Proposals in early 1995 for the Evolved Expendable
                                                            and Boeing (as McDonnell Douglas had become by this
Launch Vehicle, a class of rockets designed to lower
                                                            point) each received a US$500 million contract for
launch costs and put the United States on a better
                                                            engineering and manufacturing development. In
competitive footing with international boosters.
                                                            addition, Boeing received a US$1.38 billion prime
The EELV has its roots in two previous programs: the        award for EELV Initial Launch Services, while
Advanced Launch System (ALS) and its successor, the         Lockheed Martin received the secondary US$650
National Launch System (NLS). These two programs            million award.
called for a family of launch vehicles to carry payloads
                                                            Development was complete by FY02, resulting in two
for both the Air Force and NASA. Both proved
                                                            new launch vehicles, new manufacturing capabilities,
unsuccessful, partly because they attempted to do too
                                                            and new and modified launch sites at Cape Canaveral
much. Not only would they develop entirely new
                                                            Air Station in Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base
vehicles to carry medium and large satellites into space
                                                            in California.
for the Air Force, but they would also carry very large
payloads for NASA’s Space Station. The ALS and NLS          The first Atlas V EELV was rolled out to the launch pad
promoters boasted substantially lower launch costs and      in March 2002. Spacecraft processing delays and
reusable components – promises that have proved             additional umbilical retraction tests postponed its July
impossible to keep. Hundreds of millions of dollars         debut until August 12, and again until later that month.
later, Congress scratched the NLS program from the          In August 2002, the two-stage rocket blasted off from
FY93 appropriations budget.                                 Cape Canaveral, and released Eutelsat’s Hot Bird 6
                                                            communications satellite into orbit over western Africa
The Air Force took a different approach for the EELV
                                                            31 minutes later. The launch also marked the 61st
program. As part of the National Space Transportation
                                                            consecutive successful launch of an Atlas rocket.
Policy signed by President Bill Clinton in August 1994,
the Pentagon has primary responsibility for develop-        The inaugural Delta IV EELV, a Medium-Plus (4,2)
ment of new expendable launch vehicles. NASA agreed         variant, also experienced some delays, although these
to launch its payloads on the EELV once it became           focused mainly on development problems and issues
available; however, it reserved the right to use            with the RL-10B-2 second stage. The August launch
alternative systems if the EELV failed to produce the       was pushed repeatedly, but ultimately took place in
expected cost savings. The Department of Defense            November 2002. The first Boeing Delta IV EELV flew
expected the EELV to initially reduce launch costs by at    from Florida’s Space Launch Complex 37B and safely
least 25 percent over existing systems, and ultimately      deployed the Eutelsat W5 spacecraft to a 539 kilometer
cut costs in half; however, from FY04 to FY05 costs         GTO about 37 minutes later. The first Delta IV military
have grown by 26 percent.                                   launch took place in March 2003. The USAF Defense
                                                            Satellite Communications System spacecraft DSCS III
The three-phase EELV development program began in
                                                            A3 was launched from Cape Canaveral.
1995 with an RFP for the Low Cost Concept Validation
module. Four 15-month contracts were issued, one each       Boeing announced in February 2003 that, effective that
to Alliant Techsystems, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and        summer, all Delta launch vehicle assemblies performed
McDonnell Douglas (now part of Boeing) in September         at the Pueblo (Colorado) facility would be consolidated
1995.      The second phase, Pre-Engineering and            into the Decatur (Alabama) facility where Delta IV
Manufacturing Development (Pre-EMD), cut the                production and testing is done. Storage of Delta IIs for
competitors down to only Lockheed Martin and                the Air Force will continue at Pueblo until 2007.

                                                                                                       August 2004
EELV, Page 4                                                                              Space Systems Forecast

The second launch of the Atlas V EELV was delayed.         increased Lockheed Martin’s from 7 to 14. Addi-
Lockheed Martin identified some problematic welds on       tionally, in Buy 2, Boeing will be disqualified from
the Centaur upper stage of the Atlas V being prepared to   three launches that will in turn be awarded to Lockheed
lift Greece’s HellasSat satellite into orbit in March      Martin. The Air Force also addressed the West Coast
2003. International Launch Services (ILS) postponed        launch exclusivity enjoyed by Boeing and decided that
the mission to allow time to replace the faulty Centaur    Lockheed Martin will be able to upgrade an existing
with one already in Lockheed’s Denver (Colorado) final     facility at Space Launch Complex 3 at Vandenberg
assembly facility. Launch was then planned for May 12      AFB.
but was again halted, this time to replace a damaged
                                                           The Air Force has estimated the cost of the upgrade at
component on the launch vehicle. By May 13, all
                                                           about US$200 million. This is obviously a major
systems were go for the launch, and the rocket blasted
                                                           development for Lockheed Martin, as it will now have
off without a hitch.
                                                           the capability to launch heavy payloads into polar orbit
The Atlas V has launched three missions to date:           and compete for these substantial Air Force contracts.
Eutelsat’s Hot Bird 6, HellasSat, and Rainbow 1. The
                                                           Recent Activity
Atlas V was also to launch the Teledesic constellation
and the Nimiq 2 satellite, but the former collapsed and    Policy of Two Launch Providers is Codified. In
the latter flew on the Proton. The Atlas V serves as a     December 2003, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul
backup launcher for the Russian Proton rocket, and vice    Wolfowitz upheld and subsequently codified the policy
versa, under a marketing agreement through Inter-          to maintain two launch providers. The program had
national Launch Services, a joint venture between          come under fire in 2003 and one faction of the Office of
Lockheed Martin and Khrunichev State Research and          the Secretary of Defense (OSD) had proposed to reduce
Production Space Center.                                   the available launch base to only one contractor. The
                                                           policy codification ensures that both Boeing and
The Boeing Delta IV has also launched three missions
                                                           Lockheed Martin will be relied upon to supply EELVs.
to date: Eutelsat W5 and the USAF’s DSCS III A3 and
DSCS III B6. The rocket also serves as a backup            Nunn-McCurdy Review. Under a U.S. law known as
launcher for the Sea Launch Zenit 3SL, and vice versa,     the Nunn-McCurdy provision, DoD programs that
under a marketing agreement through Boeing Launch          realize cost growth of 25 percent or more are subject to
Services.                                                  review by the OSD. The review weighs the importance
                                                           of the program to national security and considers less
Air Force Punishes Boeing. The Air Force held
                                                           expensive alternatives. Since the EELV program began
commercial launch contracts for 28 government
                                                           the program costs have risen by approximately 50
payloads scheduled to launch between FY02 and FY06.
It originally gave Boeing 19 of these and Lockheed
Martin nine. Later the USAF determined that the            Despite the cost growth, the OSD determined in May
market demand for West Coast EELV launches was not         2004 that the EELV program is essential to national
enough to support two competing vehicles; Lockheed         security and cheaper alternatives do not exist. The OSD
Martin agreed. Citing lack of significant commercial       then directed the USAF to revise the service’s
potential at the site, the firm forfeited its two West     acquisition plan to more accurately reflect the current
Coast launches, worth approximately US$150 million,        EELV cost expectations.
to Boeing in October 2000. In return, Lockheed was
                                                           Third Mid-Level Manager at Boeing Charged. In May
relieved of its commitment to build launch facilities at
                                                           2004 a third employee of the Delta IV program was
Vandenberg. The arrangement gave Boeing West Coast
                                                           charged with helping to secure the infamous
EELV launch exclusivity for 10 years.
                                                           “proprietary documents” from Lockheed Martin. Boeing
This was the EELV landscape before the Air Force           has been under suspension from bidding on EELV
determined that Boeing had committed violations of         contracts since mid-2003, and won’t be cleared for
federal law during the first EELV source selection in      “Buy III” until the USAF feels that the company has
1998. Boeing was in possession of over 25,000 pages of     reformed their strategies and is recertified for bidding.
Lockheed Martin proprietary data, and the Air Force        The USAF is not expected to start the “Buy III” until
believes Boeing used the data to undercut Lockheed         Boeing has been reinstated for the process which is
Martin’s EELV bids in “Buy 1.”                             expected to take place sometime before the end of 2004.
The Air Force, as punishment, is reducing Boeing’s
number of Buy 1 launches from 19 to 12, and therefore

August 2004
Space Systems Forecast                                                                                         EELV, Page 5

EELV Engineering and Manufacturing Development funding is provided under U.S. Air Force PE#0604853F. The
USAF intends to procure 117 EELVs throughout the life of the program at an estimated cost of US$17.5 billion
(based on FY05 DoD procurement documents). The funding listed below represents the FY05 DoD request and, as
of press time, has yet to pass through both the U.S. House and Senate. Significant markdowns to the EELV
procurement are expected in FY05.
                                                          U.S. FUNDING
                                    FY02         FY03         FY04         FY05        FY06         FY07    FY08     FY09
                                     AMT          AMT          AMT          AMT         AMT          AMT     AMT      AMT
Development/Demo.                  321.8        55.8          8.0         27.0         17.1        18.0      0.0      0.0
Procurement                          0.0       175.6        604.7        611.0        839.9       752.3    916.7   1029.1
Procurement Items                      0           1            4            3            7           5        7        6
All US$ are in millions.

   Month         Year          EELV                     Major Development
   Oct           1998                                   Boeing and Lockheed Martin selected for EELV EMD
   Aug           2002          Atlas V-5                Eutelsat Hot Bird 6 launched on debut flight
   Nov           2002          Delta IV                 Eutelsat W5 launched on debut flight
   Mar           2003          Delta IV                 DSCS 3-A3 (USAF) launched
   May           2003          Atlas V-401              HellasSat launched
   Jul           2003          Atlas V-5                Rainbow-1 launched
   Aug           2003          Delta IV M               DSCS 3-B6 launched
   Sep           2004          Delta IV Heavy           Planned test launch with dummy payload
   Dec           2004          Delta IV M+(4,2)         Planned launch of classified NRO L-22 satellite
   Oct           2004          Atlas V-4                Planned launch of Inmarsat-4
   Early         2005          Delta IV H               Planned launch of classified NRO L-26 satellite
                 2005          Delta IV M+(5,4)         Planned launch of Wideband Gapfiller 1
                 2005          Delta IV H               Planned launch of DSP-23
                 2005          Atlas V-5                Planned launch of Wideband Gapfiller 2
                 2005          Delta IV M               Planned launch of DMSP 5D3 F17
                 2006          Atlas V-5 *              Planned launch of Wideband Gapfiller 3
                 2006          Atlas V-5 *              Planned launch of Gifts/Iomi (EO-3)/STPSat-1/NPSat-1
                 2006          Atlas V-5 *              Planned launch of classified NRO L-28 satellite
                 2006          Delta IV M               Planned launch of GPS-2F 1
                 2007          Atlas V-5 *              Planned launch of DMSP 5D3 F18
                 2007          Atlas V-4                Planned launch of GPS-2F 2
                 2007          Atlas V-5                Planned launch of classified NRO L-24 satellite
                 2007          Atlas V-5                Planned launch of SBIRS GEO-1
                 2007          Atlas V-4 *              Planned launch of GPS 2F 3
                 2007          Atlas V-4                Planned launch of GPS-2F 4
                 2008          Delta IV M               Planned launch of GPS-2F 5
                 2008          Atlas V-4                Planned launch of GPS-2F 6
                 2008          Atlas V-5                Planned launch of SBIRS GEO-2 n
                 2009          Atlas V-4 *              Planned launch of GPS-2F 7
                 2009          Atlas V-4 *              Planned launch of GPS-2F 8
                 2009          Delta IV M               Planned launch of GPS-2F 9
                 2010          Delta IV M               Planned launch of GPS-2F 10
                 2010          Delta IV M               Planned launch of SBIRS-GEO 3

* Air Force changed from Delta IV to Atlas V as penalty for Boeing’s wrongful EELV procurement process.

                                                                                                                   August 2004
EELV, Page 6                                                                                              Space Systems Forecast

                                                 Forecast Rationale
The continued weak state of the commercial launch                      Delta IV should pick up again nicely as the results from
market is expected to push the cost of EELV                            “Buy 3” are announced this year. This Buy 3 batch will
procurement up by 20 to 50 percent, according to retired               consist of 15 to 20 launches.
Air Force Major General Robert Dickman, the service’s
                                                                       The slowly recovering launch market also continues to
Deputy for Military Space. When the program was
                                                                       limit commercial opportunities for the Atlas V EELV,
forged in the early 1990s the Pentagon was betting on a
                                                                       even with their Proton backup agreement. The whole
robust commercial market to sustain the Atlas V and the
                                                                       idea behind the EELV program’s ability to lower
Delta IV. The market predictions never came to fruition,
                                                                       military launch costs was that their commercial
and the U.S. government is now left with the bill and
                                                                       revenues would help offset the military’s costs of
the responsibility for maintaining both launch vehicles.
                                                                       building the launch pads and rockets. Despite the
The flagging commercial market has also put heavy
                                                                       overestimation of demand for the Evolved Expendable
pressure on both contractors to keep up with their share
                                                                       Launch Vehicles, the USAF’s EELV Program Office
of supporting the EELV program.
                                                                       and the OSD say that there are no plans to scale back to
Production estimates for the EELV rockets have been                    a single contractor.
lowered across the board in accordance with
                                                                       Forecast International believes that the Delta IV and
commercial market trends. Before the USAF punished
                                                                       Atlas V will come closer to parity (especially in the
Boeing in 2003 the company made a strategic decision
                                                                       wake of the Air Force decision) due to the onset of
to focus the Delta IV on the government launch services
                                                                       some hefty Pentagon launch demands in the next
market, thus reducing by nearly one-half its estimated
                                                                       decade. These include the Transformational Com-
long-term demand for the Delta IV. This reduction
                                                                       munications System (TCS), the Optical Relay
eliminated commercial launches for the Delta IV, and
                                                                       Communications Architecture (ORCA), and the Future
Boeing informed Forecast International that “there are
                                                                       Imagery Architecture (FIA) launches. Many questions
no contracted commercial launches for the Delta IV and
                                                                       about market share will be answered following the next
no vehicles in production.”
                                                                       round of military bidding, expected by the end of 2004.
Having forsaken the commercial market for military                     We are forecasting steady production of an average of
launches, and then having the Air Force yank 10                        five or six EELVs annually through 2007, eventually
launches worth over US$1 billion, was certainly a hit to               ramping up to eight to support the Pentagon’s numerous
the Delta IV program. However, EELV missions for the                   transformational programs.

Ten-Year Outlook
                                           ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR PRODUCTION
                                                          High Confidence          Good Confidence           Speculative
                                                               Level                    Level
 Space System                              thru 03   04        05      06    07     08     09        10     11      12     13   04-13
 EELV (DELTA IV-DERIVED)                        4    2          2       1     1      3      3        4      4        4     4      28
Subtotal - BOEING EXPENDABLE LAUNCH SYS.        4    2          2       1     1      3      3        4      4        4     4      28

 EELV (ATLAS V-DERIVED)                         4    3          4       4     5      4      3        4      4        4     4      39
Subtotal - LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION          4    3          4       4     5      4      3        4      4        4     4      39

Total Production                                8    5          6       5     6      7      6        8      8        8     8      67

August 2004

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