Docstoc

INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN SOUTH ASIA

Document Sample
INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN SOUTH ASIA Powered By Docstoc
					          INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN SOUTH ASIA
             AND THE IMPACT TO THE REGION




        By David Raja Marpaung S.IP, M.Def




David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant.
                                  email:davidrajamarpaung@gmail.com
              INTRODUCTION

   Characteristics of the South Asian Region
      – Almost all countries of South Asia are
        weak states with strong cohesive
        societies
      – Largely India-centric
      – Possibility that the insecurity will“spill
        over” to the neighboring state


                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
• Why Traditional Security Issues
  – Acquired nuclear weapons by India and
    Pakistan(stability-instability paradox)
  – Unresolved border disputes between other states
    (mostly India)
  – Perceive military threat as excess of the conflicts.




                   David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                    University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
          RESEARCH PROBLEM

   What are the main interstate conflicts related to
    the traditional security issues in South Asian
    region?
   What are the impacts of those conflicts to the
    broader security environment in the region?
   What are the role of SAARC as the regional
    mechanism to manage security environment
    within the region?

                   David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                    University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
     CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

   Traditional Security
       –   Stephen Walt, as noted in Buzan, et.all (1998:
           3), defined (traditional) security study as “the
           study of the threat, use, and control of military
           forces”
       –   The threats to a states’ security principally
           comes from outside its border (external
           environment).
       –   These threats are primarily military in nature
           and usually need a military response to counter
           threats.
                     David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                      University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
Analytical Tools
• PESTEL analysis (politic, economy, social, technology,
  environment, legal): analysing the impacts to the
  region
• Barry Buzan's Dimension Matrix (dimensions vs level
  of analysis): analysing the correlation between impacts
  and scope of influence




                   David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                    University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
                   ANALYSIS
   Brief Profile of South Asian Countries




                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
Intraregional trading in South Asia




         David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
          University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
Regional Trading Tariffs in South Asia




           David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
            University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
                   ANALYSIS
   Interstate Conflicts in South Asia




                   David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                    University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
•   Bilateral conflict agreements among the
    countries:




                David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                 University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
                      ANALYSIS

   The Impacts of the Security Conflicts
           PESTEL Analysis
                 Politic:
                   terrorism activities
                   international involvement (UN, US, EU)
                   political tension
                   suppression to the minority
                   insurgency
                   suppression to civil society
                   ineffectiveness of SAARC
                     David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                      University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Economy:
      illegal trading trough border
      money laundering (trough “hawala” system)
      South Asia is the least integrated region in the world.
      Intraregional trade is less than 2% of GDP, compared
       to more than 20% for East Asia.
      The cost of trading across borders in South Asia is one
       of the highest in the world.




                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Social
      drugs abuse in society, mainly come from Afghanistan
       (narcotics, cannabis, hashish, opium, heroin,
       morphine)
      refugees from the conflict area (Kashmir, Tibet, Sri
       Lanka, Afghanistan, Bhutan)
      illegal migrant worker
      human trafficking (women and children for sexual
       exploitation and illegal labour)
      minority discrimination



                 David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                  University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Technology:
      nuclear race
      Energy trade in the region is low. Only India, Bhutan,
       and Nepal currently trade electricity
      less-developed regional telecommunication access
      Only 7% of international telephone calls are regional,
       compared to 71% for East Asia.




                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Environment
      opium plants spreading
      river and dam dispute as the main agricultural irrigation


   Legal
      inconsistency in applying bilateral and regional
       agreements
      law enforcement becoming weak
      refuse to joint nuclear non-proliferation treaty




                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Barry Buzan's Dimension Matrix




                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
               The Role of SAARC

   SAARC Profile
    –   Established at the First Summit held in
        Dhaka on 7-8 December 1985
    –   Founded by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
        Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and
        Afghanistan joined in 2005
    –   Primary objectives is to accelerate the
        process of economic and social
        development in member states, through
                      in agreed also Indonesia areas
        joint action David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture of cooperation
                      University of Indonesia,
• The Role of SAARC in the Region
  – Politic and Security
    • promote of mutual trust and understanding
    • promoting peace, stability and amity
    • accelerated socio-economic cooperation
  – Economy
     • Free Trade Agreement (effective July 1, 2006)
    • creation of sub-regional networks,
                  David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                   University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
– Poverty Eradication
  • Leadership in developing and implementing
    Micro Credit Programmes
– Social
  • population stabilisation
  • empowerment of women
  • youth mobilisation
  • human resource development
  • promotion of health and nutrition
  • the protection of children. Lecture
                 David Raja Marpaung. Associate
                     University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
– Terrorism and Drug-trafficking
  • SAARC Regional Conventions on
   Suppression of Terrorism and on
   Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic
   Substances.




             David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
              University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
• Failure of SAARC
  – political rivalries between countries went against
    SAARC's goal.
  – status of SAARC is merely a platform where annual
    talks and meetings are held
  – Its charter states explicitly that bilateral and
    contentious issues shall be excluded from the
    deliberations of SAARC


                   David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                    University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
   Problems faced by SAARC as the regional mechanism:
       Difference in approaches and attitude of member
        countries.
       Presence of inter-state conflicts.
       Inequitable sharing of costs and benefits.
       Disparity in regional resources.
       The lack of interdependence in matters of trade.
       Inadequacy of transport and communication facilities
        among the various members of SAARC.
       Lack of free travel and free movement of people.
       Lack of united stand on various international issues.
       Certain institutional and procedural shortcomings.
       Sinking bilateral differences/narrow perspective.
    
                        David Raja
        Bureaucratic problems.Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                         University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
             Finding the Future Way
•       Strengthening SAARC as regional mechanism:
    –    To develop political will to reverse the course of confrontation.
    –    To show willingness and commitment to live together.
    –    To expand civil societies, both within and between nations.
    –    To strengthen regional institutions.
    –    To develop understanding on security matters within the
         region while seeking cooperation from contiguous regions.
    –    To accommodate interests of small neighbours.
    –    To make amendment of SAARC Charter in principle to solve
         interstate conflict.
    –    To encourage economic cooperative endeavours.

                          David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                           University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
• Challenge of India as the biggest power:
  – India is no longer trusted by other countries in the region,
    since almost all of them have conflict with India
  – India tends to maintain the conflicts, since the major cause of
    the conflicts are the rivalry of resources (which are important
    for national interests)
  – Long lasting inter-religion and inter-ethnic conflict within the
    society
  – Inherited conflicts from British Colonial Era
  – India considers itself as the central and super power in the
    region, so India try to force its hegemony to the others
                      David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                       University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
                  Conclusions
•   South Asia is a region with multi-diversities in
    demography, religion, and ethnic groups.
•   Among the member of SAARC, for a long time, India
    has interstate conflicts with all of the countries in the
    region, except Afghanistan. The major conflicts are
    about border dispute and resources rivalry.
•   The interstate traditional security conflicts making
    South Asia as the least developed and least
    integrated region in the world. This can be seen by
    the less number of intraregional trading,
    telecommunication access, energy distribution, but
    high number of poverty and trading tariffs.
                    David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture
                     University of Indonesia, also Indonesia
•    The worst impacts in the region are the failure of
    integrated sustainable development, ineffectiveness
    of SAARC as the regional mechanism, and military
    tension which can deliver the armed conflicts.
•   SAARC as a regional mechanism has positive roles
    in maintaining regional cooperation in economy,
    social, culture, environment, politic, and security
    aspect.
•   But the principle of not involving interstate conflict in
    the regional deliberations makes the conflicts within
    the region becoming worse and jeopardise the
    broader security environment.
•   It is important to South Asia to rebuild the effective
    regional mechanism and integration process, but
                     David Raja as the biggest
    India has challengesMarpaung. Associate Lecture power.
                     University of Indonesia, also Indonesia

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:53
posted:5/31/2010
language:English
pages:27