smoothing

Document Sample
smoothing Powered By Docstoc
					                                                       Smoothing Forecast Analysis



   Week       Widgets     Smoothed
    No.        Sold        Forecast                   250
     1          40           #N/A
     2          90          40.00
     3         100          75.00                     200
     4         110          92.50
     5          90          104.75                    150                                                              Baseline




                                            Widgets
     6         120          94.43
                                                                                                                       Forecast
     7         109          112.33
     8          96          110.00                    100                                                              Linear (Baseline)

     9          80          100.20
     10        120          86.06
                                                       50
     11        130          109.82
     12        200          123.95
     13        190          177.18                      0
     14        180          186.16                          1   2   3   4   5   6   7    8     9   10 11 12 13 14 15
     15        200          181.85                                                      Week
Forecast For Week 16        194.55

    The fundamental idea behind smoothing is that each new forecast is obtained in part by moving the prior forecast in a
    direction that would have improved the old forecast. The equation is: F[t+1] = F[t] + a x e[t] where:
       1. t is the time period
       2. F[t] is the forecast at time t, and F[t+1] is the forecast at the time period immediately following time t
      3. a is the smoothing constant (Never exceed .7)
       4. e[t] is the error: the difference between the forecast for time t and the actual observation at time t

    How do you use it? Enter your business units (widgets) and this sheet will forecast unit sales for you.

    This sheet is fully functional. To remove protection click Tools / Protection / Unprotect sheet.




                                         © Copyright, 2007, Jaxworks, All Rights Reserved.
Since 1996, JaxWorks has offered a suite of Free Excel workbooks and spreadsheets, and ass
documents, that cover a number of financial, accounting and sales functions. These are invalua

Also included Free are:
   - business plan tools, including spreadsheets and excellent instructions
   - Excel functions glossary and guide;
   - free training courses for most Microsoft Office applications. These guides are in
     PDF format and rival commercial books!
   - comprehensive list of acronyms, ratios and formulas in customer financial
     analysis, and financial terms;
   - suite of online calculators, including, breakeven analysis, productivity analysis,
     business evaluation;
   - Altman Z-Score (covering publicly and privately held firms, and small
     businesses);
   - and payroll analysis.

If you are involved in financial analysis at any level, or want to learn more about MS Excel and o
suite this site is invaluable.




                                              JaxWorks Small Business Spreadsheet Factory
 preadsheets, and associated MS Word, PDF and HTML
ons. These are invaluable small business tools.




ides are in



 analysis,




 about MS Excel and other applications in the Office




sheet Factory

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Tags:
Stats:
views:138
posted:2/28/2008
language:English
pages:3