PENNSYLVANIA RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL by cio18038

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									PENNSYLVANIA RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL


ENERGY AS THE FUTURE
At present, the energy sector and the national policy that determines how it evolves leaves the US exposed to three major,
interconnected threats. Our national security is compromised by how we get and use energy. The inability to even recognize
climate change as a problem only make the inevitable task of facing the problem more difficult. Finally, the harmful effect of
our present energy policy on the domestic economy needs an expanded and more aggressive attack to reverse the
damage.

Pennsylvania passed the Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard to provide leadership to take on these interconnected
threats. States are leading the way forward on energy policy but ultimately the nation as a whole will have to undertake
coordinated efforts to develop energy security and stabilize carbon emissions.

The energy policy we have is often described as “drain America first” referring to our insistence on drilling more and more
pristine areas of the US for oil and natural gas, but “drain America first” could also refer to the effects of our current policy on
the domestic economy. The threats to the long-term economic well being of our country raised by the present policy’s
effects on our balance of trade deficit and outsourcing critical manufacturing capabilities cannot be ignored. Perhaps more
critically, solving energy problems with policies that provide security, address climate stabilization and direct substantial
economic revitalization to our domestic economy offers hope for a greatly expanded political coalition. A major commitment
to renewable electric generation will reduce our security exposure, stabilize climate and provide a multi-billion dollar
investment and reindustrialization program.

A national program of that size and scope offers a tremendous opportunity for Pennsylvania. Seeing an energy policy as a
way to create a new thrust of industrial activity requires looking at the renewable technologies in a new way. This Report
break renewable generation technologies down into their component parts and then examine where traditional Pennsylvania
industries exist that could, if provided with appropriate incentives, become suppliers of the billions of dollars of new parts
that will be necessary.

This Report analyses the renewable energy industry assuming that the United States moves to stabilize carbon emissions.
As explained more fully below, the Report assumes a “wedge” of renewable energy is developed to stabilize the emissions
from the US electric sector. The Report looks at how that major new demand for renewable energy will trickle down to
create new demand for the component parts that make up the major renewable energy technologies.

Stabilizing emissions of carbon requires adding 18,500 MW of new renewable projects each year. The Report looks at the
total demand generated by a ten-year stabilization program and tracks that demand down to the individual industries
capable of manufacturing the components. The national demand is allocated to individual states and eventually to the
county level. Pennsylvania, of all the states, is ranked sixth as the greatest potential to generate new manufacturing activity
to meet this demand. In all, there are more than 2188 firms in Pennsylvania that are currently active in the industrial sectors
that could supply the component parts to meet the demand necessary to deliver a wedge. In addition, the demand can
support the creation of more than 42,000 new jobs related to the expanded manufacturing activity.

The Report also looks at the likelihood that new demand on the scale necessary to stabilize carbon emissions would lead to
bottlenecks in the component supply chain. To analyze the likelihood of this occurring, the Report looks at the incremental,
annual demand for components as a percent of the available unused industrial capacity for each of the major industrial
sectors. For example, climate stabilization will create an annual demand for approximately $1 billion for wind turbine
gearboxes. Currently, this industrial sector is running at close to full capacity. Department of Commerce data shows an
available, unused capacity of roughly $15 million. In other words, any major push for renewable installations would very
likely run into an immediate shortage of these critical components. Looking more closely at this carbon stabilization program
reveals that there is a very great likelihood that severe bottlenecks will develop in many critical sectors. For wind and PV,
the annual, new demand will greatly exceed available industrial capacity for more than 50% of the industrial sectors. All
technologies face a bottleneck in one or more critical components.


A CLIMATE STABILIZATION WEDGE
Climate change is real but the US won’t even recognize it as a problem. There are many ways to stabilize carbon
emissions. The “wedge” analysis developed by Pacala and Socolow. (Pacala, S. and R. Socolow, Stabilization Wedges:
Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years wit Current Technologies, Science, 13 August 2004, Vol. 305) provides
he breakthroughs that any complex issue like climate stabilization policy must make to gain public awareness and
acceptance: it provides the public with a clear, comprehensible explanation of the problem and a solution that they can
understand and believe will work. Their recent article in Science provided that threshold clarity for climate stabilization
efforts. To stabilize carbon emissions, the authors proposed to split the growth of carbon emissions into seven parts or
wedges and look for the set of already existing technologies that can generate the required electricity without a wedge of
carbon emissions.

An international program of stabilization based on current levels of global emissions would make the United States
responsible for about two wedges. Since transportation and electricity generation each provide about half the emissions,
electricity generation in the United States would be responsible for about one wedge.




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As the Science article makes clear there are a number of programs all using existing technologies that can be used to
provide a wedge of carbon reductions but for this Report we look at what would be required to provide a wedge from
renewable energy technologies.

The calculation of what is required to stabilize these emissions is exceedingly simple. The base of carbon emissions now is
7 billion metric tons per year of carbon growing at 1.5% per year. For the first year, global growth would be 105 million tons
and to stabilize or remove the growth each wedge would require removing 15 million tons of carbon. Since the most
common emission from the generation of electricity is CO2, the 15 million tons of carbon per wedge would translate to 55
million tons of CO2 per year. Coal generation emits on average 2.1 pounds of CO2 per kWh produced, that translates to
approximately 58 billion kWh generated with zero CO2 emissions to capture one wedge. (“Carbon Dioxide Emissions from
the Generation of Electric Power in the United States” July 2000 Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585
Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC 20460). The assumption that each CO2 free kWh removed a kWh of coal
fired generation rather than natural gas fired generation is very likely imprecise. It is used here as a way to begin the
discussion of how this type of program might work. It is not meant as a definitive resolution of these complex issues
regarding electric generation dispatch.) To achieve these reductions would require the addition of between 18,000 and
19,000 MW per year of wind assuming an average capacity factor of 35%. (Biomass and geothermal resources have much
higher capacity factors and would require smaller capacity additions to achieve the CO2 reduction.) Once you hit the initial
stabilization target the amount you need to add to hold emissions stable in the next year and for each year beyond that is
exactly the same as the initial amount.

ENERGY POLICY AS AN ECONOMIC REVITALIZATION STRATEGY

The generation of electricity is responsible for about half of the US CO2 emissions. A program to stabilize CO2 emissions
from this sector would require the installation of 18,500 MW of renewable generation per year. Renewable generation
technologies are available to provide that amount of energy but a critical question remains as to how best to marshal private
investment into those projects. In addition, renewable energy is to remarkable degree a manufactured energy. The cost of a
kWh from wind is almost totally driven by the cost of the equipment installed to generate the kWh. By contrast, almost 70%
of the cost of a kWh from the most efficient natural gas fired generator covers the cost of the natural gas.

A major program to develop renewable energy will in turn create a demand for the component parts that go into the
renewable developments. A major portion of the potential benefits flowing from the development of renewable energy will go
to the manufacturers who supply the component parts. In order to capture as much of that potential as possible for domestic
industry the first step is to understand where the potential manufacturers are located and then devise the incentives that
allow them to move efficiently into the industry.

Stabilizing carbon emissions with renewable electric generating technologies will require a capital investment of $150 billion,
much of which will be a demand for new component parts. Our analysis breaks down each of the major renewable
technologies into component parts and then uses the Census of Manufacturers to determine where the firms are at present
that operate in the industries that make those types of goods. There are more than 43,000 firms spread across the US that
operate in the relevant industrial categories. While the firms are spread across the country they are concentrated in those
states that have suffered the greatest manufacturing job losses over the past 6 years. As shown more than 75% of the
potential new demand can be expected to flow to the 20 states that have suffered the greatest job losses. A program that
supported the development of renewable energy projects while simultaneously supporting the development of a strong,
advanced component manufacturing industry would benefit many more states and regions than one that simply aimed at
providing supports for project development.

ANALYSING THE DEMAND FOR COMPONENTS
It is well understood that a national program to develop renewable energy will benefit the regions and states that have the
best renewable resource base – solar, wind, biomass and geothermal. What is less appreciated is that a national program
will also create a demand for billions of dollars of components, the parts that make up the finished renewable plants. This
demand could if accompanied by appropriate incentives provide important new markets for domestic manufacturers that are
already manufacturing equipment similar to the components that go into new renewable generation. It is the intent of this
Report to outline the potential for Pennsylvania from a national commitment to accelerate renewable energy development.
In 2004, the Renewable Energy Policy Project completed an analysis of modern, large wind turbine technologies. The
results of this analysis were very encouraging both for the country as a whole and for Pennsylvania in particular. The Report
showed:
            “Investment in new wind will create a demand for all of the components that make up a wind generator. As a rule
            of thumb, every 1000 MW requires a $1 Billion investment in rotors, generators, towers and other related
            investments… First we determine how the total installed cost of the new wind development will flow into demand
            for each of the 20 separate components of the turbines (grouped into 5 categories). Second, we spread the total
            demand among the regions of the country by allocating the …investment according to the number of employees
            at firms identified by the NAICS codes. The number of employees is used rather than number of firms to account
            for the different impact of large vs. small companies, and hence to more accurately distribute the investment. This
            produces a “map” of manufacturing activity across the United States based on firms that have the technical
            potential to become active manufacturers of wind turbine components. Third, we translate the regional dollar
            allocation by assuming that all component manufacturing has the same ratio of jobs/total investment of 3000 FTE
            jobs/$1 billion of investment…The results of this initial research into the distribution of manufacturing activity are
            encouraging. Twenty-five states have firms currently active in manufacturing components or sub-components for
            wind turbines; all fifty states have firms with the technical potential to become active. The table below shows the
            twenty states with would receive the greatest portion of the investment, based on the number of employees at



Energy Made in America                                         2
          potentially active firms identified by the NAICS codes for wind components.”

I. National Rankings
The methodology we developed for the Wind Report has since been extended to cover photovoltaics, bio-mass steam
generators, and geothermal technologies. For the combined renewable technologies, we assumed that 185,000 MW of wind
would be developed, 23,150 MW of photovoltaic, 21,760 MW of biomass, and 15,190 MW of geothermal.

                          Summary of National Development, Resulting Investment and Jobs

                                                         Number of           Millions $
                                   Number of MW            Firms            Investment              New FTE Jobs
                 Wind                  124,900             16,480             $62,338                  398,470
                 Solar                  23,150             10,272             $69,624                  298,194
            Geothermal                  15,190              3,926             $15,330                   72,324
                Biomass                 21,760             12,020             $13,248                   81,615
                 Total:                185,000             42,698            $160,541                  850,603

Nearly 43,000 firms throughout the United States operate in industries related to the manufacturing of components that go
into renewable energy systems. If the 185,000 MW of renewable energy assumed in this model were to be developed,
these companies have the potential to fill the demand for new components that would be generated. This national
development would represent nearly $160.5 billion dollars of manufacturing investment, and would result in more than
850,600 new jobs.



                                  Manufacturing Jobs and Investment for 185,000 MW



                           # of                                          Jobs               Jobs
         Location         Firms        Jobs Wind      Jobs Solar       Geothermal         Biomass        Jobs Total
     California           5,409          32,046          48,896           8,465            6,209           95,616
     Texas                3,358          25,044          23,221           4,660            7,175           60,100
     Illinois             2,289          30,010          19,298           3,396            3,875           56,579
     Ohio                 2,465          29,820          11,833           5,079            4,537           51,269
     New York             1,925          18,523          14,617           8,150            6,640           47,930
     Pennsylvania         2,188          19,588          15,767           3,402            3,911           42,668
     Indiana              1,321          25,180          7,485            3,191            3,365           39,221
     Michigan             2,050          24,350          6,644            1,502            2,281           34,777
     North Carolina       1,096          10,964          11,062           2,810            3,708           28,544
     Missouri              785           10,260          7,532            2,907            2,097           22,796


A. Component Breakdown

In doing so, we must decide what constitutes a major component – for this study we consider a part that would likely be sold
by a manufacturer as a single unit, and not the parts that went into that unit further up the supply chain. For example, we
consider the gearbox in a wind turbine as a component, but not the bolts that went into making the gearbox. For each of four
technologies – wind, solar PV, geothermal, and biomass generation – we identified the most prevalent modern technology,
and then identified the major components that go into each.




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                                                          Top 20 Counties in Pennsylvania
                                          Wind                    Solar                Geothermal                Biomass                    Total


  Location         # of Firms      Millions $    Jobs      Millions $     Jobs      Millions $     Jobs     Millions $     Jobs      Millions $     Jobs
    York               118          $484.90       2393       $97.50        727       $378.70       1311      $123.80        484      $1,084.90      4915
   Berks                71          $132.30       897       $910.30       4341       $10.30         41         $5.90         26      $1,058.80      5305
 Lancaster             104          $363.20       2246      $135.40        793        $5.90         34        $30.30        200       $534.80       3273
 Allegheny             174          $158.30       1045      $197.60        667       $36.20        189        $74.50        394       $466.60       2295
Montgomery             189          $221.80       1464      $141.40        591       $43.40        226        $26.90        153       $433.50       2434
    Erie               147          $243.80       1704      $105.80        622       $19.40        120        $60.90        387       $429.90       2833
   Lehigh               67           $61.00       413       $330.50       1571        $2.60         17         $5.90         38       $400.00       2039
   Bucks               204          $166.40       1115      $114.70        557       $26.10        130        $13.20         79       $320.40       1881
Westmoreland            97          $114.70       779       $124.50        519       $38.60        189        $30.70        208       $308.50       1695
Cumberland              26           $51.70       334       $182.90        762        $2.50         13         $4.40         20       $241.50       1129
  Crawford              24           $43.10       299       $181.60        752        $0.30          1         $0.70         5        $225.70       1057
  Luzerne               45           $38.00       283       $156.30        464       $12.10         65         $5.60         32       $212.00       844
Northampton             62           $80.10       584        $40.70        130       $16.30        102        $45.30        311       $182.40       1127
   Beaver               33          $131.80       866        $21.20        117        $2.10          7         $3.30         17       $158.40       1007
Philadelphia            90           $68.00       465        $70.30        371       $10.50         70         $4.50        28        $153.30       934
 Lawrence               30           $40.10       248        $94.00        495       $10.20         74         $7.90         48       $152.20       865
  Chester               84           $32.70       217        $96.40        525        $5.10         31        $14.00         93       $148.20       866
   Butler               54           $58.70       368        $13.90        80        $54.10        338        $12.60         74       $139.30       860
   Tioga                8            $76.60       532        $53.00        343        $0.00          0         $0.80         5        $130.40       880
  Lycoming              29          $102.50       650        $0.70          5         $4.70         34        $18.60        132       $126.50       821



                                                                 1. Wind Technology

           For wind technology, this Report looks at utility scale modern wind turbines, which are three bladed, upwind, horizontal axis
           machines, typically larger than 1 MW capacity. In this type of wind turbine, wind flows over three large composite blades
           mounted on a rotor, causing them to rotate. The rotational energy is transferred through a gearbox to a generator, where it
           is converted into electricity. Almost all wind turbines currently being installed for power generation for electric utilities are of
           this kind. We identified 19 separate components for the utility scale wind turbine, many of which are shown below in Figure
           1. For a complete list of the components and a description and photograph of each, please refer to Appendix A.




           Energy Made in America                                          4
Figure 1 – Wind Turbine Component Diagram

                                                     2. Solar Technology

For solar photovoltaics', we considered crystalline silicon modules, as these are by far the most common type of PV module
currently deployed. Although not specifically considered in this report, amorphous silicon and other “thin-film” modules are
also produced in small amounts in a handful of countries. However, with the exception of the glass top plate and the framing
structure, the components for both systems are practically the same and so much of what is written in this report will also
apply to thin-film modules. All PV systems convert the energy from photons striking the cells into electrical current. This
direct current electricity is then either stored in a battery for later use, or converted into AC power by an inverter, which can
then be connected to household appliances and to the electric grid. We identified 13 separate components for solar PV
systems.




Figure 2 – Solar PV Component Diagram

                                                 3. Geothermal Technology

For geothermal power generation, we considered two technologies which represent almost all of the current operating and
planned plants – flash steam and binary cycle. Flash steam plants operate by expanding the hot geothermal fluid to make
steam, which is then passed through a steam turbine-generator set to make electricity. The steam is then condensed, and in
most cases the excess fluid is re-injected underground to preserve the resource. In a binary plant, a fluid with a low boiling
point is circulated in a closed loop, receiving heat from the geothermal fluid through a heat exchanger, vaporizing, being
expanded through a turbine-generator, and then re-condensed. Most of the components that make up these plants are
similar, such as various pumps, heat exchangers and piping, but a handful of parts are distinct for each technology. Listed
below are the components that both technologies have in common, and then those that are specialized for each type of
plant. The figures below illustrate the major components of a flash steam plant and a binary cycle plant.




Figure 3 – Geothermal Component Diagram




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                                                  4. Biomass Technology

For biomass power generation, we looked at dedicated biomass plants (as opposed to co-firing with coal) that burn biomass
in a boiler to generate steam. The steam is then passed through a steam turbine-generator, just like the kind used in coal or
other fossil-fuel plants, to generate electricity. While other methods of power-generation from biomass exist, such as
gasification or anaerobic digestion, direct steam plants are the most common, and are the only technology widely ready for
commercialization. We identified 33 separate components for a biomass-fired steam plant.




Figure 4 – Direct-fired Biomass Steam Plant Component Diagram

B. Identifying the NAICS Codes
Manufacturing activity has historically been tracked by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. The four-digit SIC
code was developed in the 1930's to classify businesses by the type of activity in which they are primarily engaged and to
promote the comparability of business data to describe various aspects of the U.S. economy. In 1997 the SIC was replaced
by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). In the Economic Census conducted by the U.S. Census
Bureau, every firm operating in North America reports one or more NAICS codes, indicating what types of products or
services they provide. Companies reporting the same NAICS code are involved in similar activities, for example every
company that reports “333911” manufactures some type of pump. Using this system, REPP was able to tabulate the
companies involved in activities similar to the manufacturing of renewable energy components.

The NAICS codes have several levels of detail, up to ten digits, with each digit indicating a higher level of detail. For
example, a first digit of 3 indicates Manufacturing, 333 is “Machinery Manufacturing,” 333911 is “Pump and Pumping
Equipment Manufacturing,” and 333911148M is “All other centrifugal pumps, over 6 in. discharge.” For this report, we
matched each component with a 10-digit code, the highest level of detail in the NAICS, in order to ensure that we had
accurately identified the correct code. We then went back up the hierarchy to the 6-digit code for interfacing with the census
data.




Advantages to Using the 6-digit Codes
The 6-digit NAICS codes replaced the 4-digit SIC codes, which were the highest level of detail available in the SIC. Hence
the 6-digit NAICS are the standard level reported by all companies in North America, with the 10-digit codes providing
additional detail. The U.S. Census Bureau itself provides data primarily at the 6-digit level, reporting 10 only at the request



Energy Made in America                                       6
of a special study. Furthermore, for a given NAICS code and a given geographical area, such as a county, if there are less
than 2 companies operating or if one company is dominant, disclosure rules require the Census to not report information for
that particular code and for that area, to avoid disclosing private company information. The small number of companies
reporting in a given 10-digit code makes it unlikely that information would be available for all codes and states. Therefore,
for this study we had to rely on the 6-digit codes. Additionally, the specificity of a 10-digit code could have excluded
companies with good potential for entering the geothermal market, which the 6- digit industry code includes.

Caveat to Using the 6-digit Codes
When interpreting the results of a 6-digit code search, it is important to be aware of the potential broadness of companies
included. For example, under the 6-digit NAICS, charge controllers and inverters fall under “Electronic Equipment and
Components, Not Easily Classified.” Along with rectifying equipment, such as inverters, this also includes laser power
supplies and ultrasound equipment. However, this is mostly a problem for one or two particular codes, the majority of
NAICS codes used in this study have much less variation of product type. Furthermore, even a company that makes laser
power supplies has a significant advantage over a company starting from scratch, as they have basic knowledge and
capabilities for making sophisticated electrical equipment.

C. Identifying the Economic Impact of Renewables Manufacturing

To provide an estimate of market development, we must start with a figure for the amount of development to occur in each
of the technologies considered in this report. This assumed development figure drives the demand for manufacturing of the
components, which in turn creates the potential for economic development in locations that could supply these components.
The intention of this report is not to take guesses at the number of MW of renewable energy likely to be installed in the next
20 years; rather we simply take some reasonable numbers to provide an estimate of the economic potential. The table
below lists the drivers we used for each of the four technologies, and their source.




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Sources for Assumed National Development

       Energy Source                 Number of                                        Source
                                      New MW
           Wind                       124,900                          Pro-rated Carbon Stabilization Wedge
         Solar PV                      15,190                          Pro-rated Carbon Stabilization Wedge
        Geothermal                     23,150                          Pro-rated Carbon Stabilization Wedge
        Biomass –                      21,760                          Pro-rated Carbon Stabilization Wedge
      Dedicated Steam

Investment Allocation
Having identified components and a NAICS code for each, the next step in determining the potential involvement of this
manufacturing base in the development is to determine how demand will flow into each industry based on component cost
*information. This cost information results in a dollar amount allocated to each industry. Each component is assigned a
specific cost ($/MW) based on research by REPP into the most relevant current cost study for each technology. The table
below summarizes the sources for cost information for each of the technologies.

Sources for Component Cost Information

Energy Source           Component Cost Information Source
Wind                    NREL WindPACT Study
Solar PV                Solar PV Industry Roadmap, as well as NREL Solar Energy Technologies Program
Geothermal              EPRI “Next Generation Geothermal Power Plants”
Biomass –               Capital costs for the McNeil Generating Station in Burlington, VT
Dedicated Steam


Jobs Allocation
We are also interested in investigating the impact of the national development of renewable energy on job creation. To do
this, we assign a manufacturing job creation ratio to each of the component industry, a number of jobs created
manufacturing in a certain industry per MW of new capacity. This ratio is calculated, again using the NAICS census data in
combination with the specific cost information discussed above. For each NAICS code, the census reports the number of
employees working in that industry, as well as the total value of products shipped from that industry. We make the
assumption that this shipped value of a product is the same value represented in the specific cost information used for the
investment allocation (the $/MW for each component), Combining these two pieces of information results in a number of
employees per MW. Because the census value of shipments is calculated on an annual basis, this “number of employees”
is equivalent to number of annual jobs, or an amount of labor equal to the number of employees’ times 2000 hours. The
table below shows the total jobs/MW number for each technology, summing over all of the component parts:

                             Energy Source                                           Number of Jobs/MW
                                  Wind                                                      7.5
                                  Solar                                                    62.6
                               Geothermal                                                  8.25
                        Biomass – Dedicated Steam                                          10.5


REPP had recently completed a study of the labor that goes into renewables which included a detailed survey of
employment related to wind and solar PV. The overall manufacturing jobs/MW numbers found using the NAICS census
method and shown in the table above agree well with the numbers found in the previous REPP study, giving confidence in
the above method. Having obtained a jobs/MW number, the jobs are allocated geographically according to the census
manufacturing in the exact same manner that the investment was allocated.

D. Identifying Potential Supply Bottlenecks

To identify potential bottlenecks in the component supply chain we first established for each NAICS code the current
production capacity and compared that to the maximum available production capacity. For each NAICS code this difference
established an Available Production Capacity. Available Production Capacity can then be compared to the Incremental
Demand for parts from that NAICS code. The Incremental Demand is the annual demand related to the installation of the
wedge of 18,500 MW. If the Incremental Demand is greater than the total Available Production Capacity, there is a strong
chance of a bottleneck developing. Identifying these bottlenecks should be met with a concerted effort to begin building
industrial capacity to avoid them.

TABLE: IDENTIFICATION OF BOTTLENECKS IN WIND COMPONENT PARTS

                                                              Available
                                         Incremental         Production      Incremental Demand as a % of Available Production
   Wind 10 Digit NAICS Codes               Demand             Capacity                          Capacity
         Nacelle Case                      $132,643            $55,931                          237.15%




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            Rotor Blade                   $1,133,332           $477,888                             237.15%
          Blade Extender                      N/A                 N/A                                  N/A
      Tower Flange and Bolts                  N/A               $25,554                                N/A
                 Hub                       $471,700               N/A                                  N/A
           Nacelle Frame                   $251,300            $248,692                             101.05%
               Towers                     $1,476,550           $381,607                             386.93%
              Bearings                     $145,075            $240,042                              60.44%
          Cooling System                    $19,200            $137,235                              13.99%
             Generator                     $551,900             $99,554                             554.37%
              Gear Box                     $942,025             $14,593                             6455.34%
               Brakes                       $33,606             $75,786                              44.34%
              Coupling                      $16,015             $58,101                              27.56%
               Shafts                      $135,254            $173,851                              77.80%
        Electronic Controller               $44,125               N/A                                  N/A
       Sensors/Data Loggers                $117,525            $315,294                              37.27%
            Anemometer                        $0               $315,294                               0.00%
             Pitch Drive                   $262,942            $458,739                              57.32%
             Yaw Drive                      $58,433            $101,945                              57.32%
         Power Electronics                 $447,150            $191,626                             233.34%

As the two Tables show that for Wind and PV there are severe bottlenecks in more than half of the crucial components.




TABLE: IDENTIFICATION OF BOTTLENECKS IN PV COMPONENT PARTS

                                                                Available
                                         Incremental           Production     Incremental Demand as a % of Available Production
       10 Digit NAICS Code                 Demand               Capacity                         Capacity
            Encapsulant                    $248,575            $1,099,869                         22.60%
             Rear Layer                    $260,300            $1,520,380                         17.12%
            Top surface                    $479,950              $50,904                         942.86%
               Wiring                      $241,550              $57,176                         422.47%
               Frame                       $118,050             $116,924                         100.96%
           Blocking Diode                  $93,327               $75,510                         123.59%
             Solar cells                  $2,691,123           $1,282,194                        209.88%
         Complete Module
               Meter                      $111,900              $293,423                              38.14%
    Circuit Breakers and Fuses            $108,875              $343,195                              31.72%
            Switch Gear                   $105,310              $861,303                              12.23%
      Electrical Connections              $400,388              $103,055                             388.52%
         Charge Controller                $477,569               $50,056                             954.07%
              Inverter                    $643,392              $171,306                             375.58%


A more complete explanation of the process and data used to identify potential bottlenecks is presented in Appendix D.




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