Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget
updated to 2006
GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton, Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan Gillett
Last update: 13 June 2008
Outline
1. Recent global carbon trends (2000-2006)
2. The perturbation of the global carbon budget (1850-2006)
3. The declining efficiency of natural CO2 sinks
4. Attribution of the recent acceleration of atmospheric CO2
5. Conclusions and implications for climate change
1.
Recent global carbon trends
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change Tropical deforestation
Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm
13 Million hectares each year
2000-2005
Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Asia Tropical Africa
FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
0.6 Pg C y-1 0.3 Pg C y-1 1.5 Pg C y-1
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation
1.80 1.60 Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia SUM
2000-2006
1.5 Pg C y-1
(16% total emissions)
1.40
Pg C yr-1
1.20 1.00
0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
1990
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Houghton, unpublished
1970
1980
2000
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel
2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C
[2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg]
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1850 1850 400 380 360 340 320
1870
Emissions
1870
1890 1890
1910
1910
1930 1930
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
2010 2010
Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv)
[CO2]
1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1
2000 - 2006: 3.3% y-1
2 ppm/year
300 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS 280
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61
Observed 2000-2006 3.3%
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy
Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth
Carbon intensity (KgC/US$)
1960
Photo: CSIRO
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions
1.5 1.4
World
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9
Factor (relative to 1990)
1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1980 1985
Emissions F (emissions) Population P (population) Wealth g = G/P= per capita GDP Carbon h = F/Gintensity of GDP
1990 1995 2000
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 2005 1980
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
Regional Pathways (Kaya identity)
C emissions Wealth pc Population
C Intensity
Developed Countries (-)
Developing Countries
Least Developed Countries
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Regional Contributions
100% 80% 60% India 40% China FSU Japan EU Population USA
in 2004
D3-Least Developed Countries D2-Developing Countries
20%
0%
D1-Developed Countries
Cumulative Flux Emissions in 2004 [1751-2004]
Flux Growth in 2004
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Fossil Fuel Emiss
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1850 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 1850 0.81850 2 ppm/year 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv)
Year 2007 Atmospheric CO2 concentration:
[CO2]] [CO2
382.6 ppm
35% above pre-industrial
1870 1870
1890 1890
1910 1910
1930 1930
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
2010 2010
Temperature (deg C)
0.6 0.4 0.2
Temperature
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
0 -0.2 -0.4
y-1
0.2 C/decade
2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1
1870 1890 1910
-0.6 1850
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
NOAA 2007; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
2.
The perturbation of the global carbon cycle (1850-2006)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
Source
deforestation
extra-tropics tropics
1.5
Sink
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
7.6
Source
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
1.5
Sink
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
7.6
Source
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
1.5
Sink
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
7.6
Source
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
1.5 4.1
Sink
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
7.6
Source
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
1.5 4.1 2.2
Sink
ocean
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
7.6
Source
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
1.5 4.1 2.8 2.2
Sink
land ocean
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (1959-2006)
Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) Carbon flux (Pg C y-1)
Source
Sink
Time (y)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
CO2 flux (Pg CO2 y-1)
3.
The declining efficiency of natural sinks
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2006)
1.5 Pg C y-1
Atmosphere 45%
2.8 Pg y-1
4.1 Pg y-1
7.6 Pg C y-1
+
Land 30%
Oceans 25%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
2.2 Pg y-1
Climate Change at 55% Discount
Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions.
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Natural Sinks: Large Economic Subsidy
Natural sinks are a huge subsidy to our global economy worth half a trillion Euros annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost
of carbon in the EU-ETS).
Canadell & Raupach 2008, Science
Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction
1. The rate of CO2 emissions. 2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans:
– – Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, … Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, …
Canadell et al. 2007, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press
Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks
Fraction of anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere % CO2 Emissions in Atmosphere
400Kg stay
Emissions 1 tCO2
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
450Kg stay
Emissions 1 tCO2
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction
Ocean Fraction
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink
• Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years. • This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon.
Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5
• The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters.
• The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole.
Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science
Drought Effects on the Mid-Latitude Carbon Sinks
A number of major droughts in mid-latitudes have contributed to the weakening of the growth rate of terrestrial carbon sinks in these regions.
Summer 1982-1991
NDVI Anomaly 1982-2004 [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index]
Summer 1994-2002/04
Angert et al. 2005, PNAS; Buermann et al. 2007, PNAS; Ciais et al. 2005, Science
4.
Attribution of the recent acceleration of atmospheric CO2
Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 To: • Economic growth • Carbon intensity • Efficiency of natural sinks
2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1
65% - Increased activity of the global economy
17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy
18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
5.
Conclusions and implications for climate change
Conclusions (i)
Since 2000: • The growth of carbon emissions from fossil fuels has tripled compared to the 1990s and is exceeding the predictions of the highest IPCC emission scenarios. • Atmospheric CO2 has grown at 1.9 ppm per year
(compared to about 1.5 ppm during the previous 30 years)
• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy has stopped decreasing (after 100 years of doing so).
Conclusions (ii)
• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 10% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer we wait to reduce emissions, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2. • All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.
References
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