The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) kicked off the third quarter by officially entering bear territory, dropping to 11,296, on July 1, a 20% decline from its Oct 9, 2007 high of 14,165. In the background, the US economic slowdown grinds on, with first quarter real gross domestic product coming in at a meager 1%, the unemployment rate rising to 5.5% and consumer confidence circling the bowl at its lowest point since 1980. Record high prices for dollar denominated commodities, especially food and energy, are in large part the result of a remarkably weak US dollar. Andrew Waldock of Commodity and Derivative Advisors LLC is looking for more weakness before the fourth quarter. He expects the DJIA to take out the January/March lows and trade between 10,900 and 12,300. The S&P 500 also will take out its lows and trade as low as 1100, with 1350-1380 on the high side.
Pages to are hidden for
"Post card from the edge"Please download to view full document