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AIR QUALITY/ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
IN THE NRC DECADAL SURVEY,
Earth Science and Applications from Space:
National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond
Daniel J. Jacob
Harvard University
NRC Decadal Surveys are produced in many areas of science
• Community-based documents identifying priority directions in a scientific
field to retain US leadership
• Respond to demands and charges from specific sponsors (agencies, OMB,
OSTP, Congress)
• Provide strategic advice, not tactical
• Have been used in the past by NASA for Space Science, not Earth Science
The Earth Science and Applications from Space (ESAS) Decadal Survey
(released Feb 07) was requested by NASA/NOAA to set up a prioritized queue of
satellite missions across all fields of Earth science for 2010-2019. Goal was to
achieve:
• coherent strategic vision
• community buy-in and imprimatur
• budget justification
DS Executive Committee & 7 Thematic Panels
Member Institution Expertise
Rick Anthes Univ. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chair Atmospheric science
Berrien Moore U. New Hampshire, co-chair Biogeochemical cycling
Jim Anderson Harvard University Atmospheric science, chemistry
Bruce Marcus Former TRW (ret) Remote sensing
Bill Gail Microsoft Virtual Earth Civil space & Information Technology
Susan Cutter U. South Carolina Hazards & risk
Tony Hollingsworth European Centre Medium-range Weather Forecasts Weather forecasting
Kathie Kelly U. Washington Physical oceanography, satellite observation
Neal Lane Rice University Policy
Warren Washington National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate
Mary Lou Zoback Risk Management Solutions Solid earth
Tony Janetos Pac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel Chair Ecology & land remote sensing
Brad Hager MIT, Solid Earth Panel Chair Solid earth & Natural hazards
Ruth DeFries U. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel Chair Land cover change & remote sensing
Susan Avery U. Colorado, Weather Panel Chair Weather
Eric Barron U. Texas, Climate Panel Chair Climate
Dennis Lettenmaier U. Washington, Water Resources Panel Chair Water resources
Mark Wilson U. Michigan, Human Health Panel Chair Human health
Vision: “A healthy, secure, prosperous & sustainable society for all people on
Earth”
Top Ten Scientific Questions identified by Decadal Survey
10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes?
9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense?
8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from
stratosphere cooling associated with climate change?
7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with
changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu?
6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes,
& what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur?
5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing,
particularly those subject to intense human harvesting?
4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans &
continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport?
3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements?
2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, &
how will that affect wildfires?
1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how
rapidly & what sea-level rise will result?
Atmospheric composition is identified with ozone layer and air quality;
relevance to climate change, ecosystems not recognized directly
Decadal Survey Process for Mission Selection
• Panels reviewed >100 candidate missions submitted in response to public
Request for Information (RFI)
• 35 of these missions were recommended to Executive Committee
• ExCom made final recommendation of 17 missions in three cohorts (2010-
2013, 2014-2016, 2017-2019). Presented this ensemble as “minimal yet
robust”, warned against cherry-picking.
• Beyond this strategic plan, Decadal Survey recommended regular schedule
of Venture-Class missions with $200M budget cap for grass-roots infusion
of new ideas and technology
17 Recommended New Missions:
3D-Winds “Minimal Yet Robust”
ACE CLARREO
ASCENDS
DESDynI GACM
• NOAA: Transition 3 LEO “research” to “operational”
– Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVRM) Geo-CAPE
– GPS radio-occultation (GPSRO) temperature, water vapor, & electron
density sounding
– Total solar irradiance via Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity
Observatory (CLARREO) & NPOESS
• NASA: Implement solar spectral portion of CLARREO & 14 other GPSRO
missions, 2 GEO (Geo-CAPE & PATH) & 12 LEO
GRACE-II
XOVRM SWOT SMAP SCLP PATH ICESat-II HyspIRI
& LIST
1st cohort (“2010-2013”) NASA Missions
Mission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate
Climate Absolute (1) Forcing & response of climate (climate) Precessing Absolute, $200M
Radiance & LEO spectrally
Refractivity resolved solar
Observatory interferometer
(CLARREO-NASA
portion)
Soil Moisture Active- (5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & LEO, SSO L-band radar & $300M
Passive (SMAP) Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious radiometer
Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface
Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water)
Ice, Cloud, & Land (5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem LEO, Non- Laser altimeter $300M
Elevation Satellite –II Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier SSO
(ICESat-II) Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate,
ecosystem, water)
Deformation, (8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, LEO, SSO L-band (1.2GHz) $700M
Ecosystem Structure Heat Stress & Drought, InSAR
& Dynamics of Ice Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Laser altimeter
(DESDynI) Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface
Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem,
health, solid earth, water)
• Now in pipeline in the order SMAP, ICESat-II, (DESDynI, CLARREO)
• First launch (SMAP) unlikely to be before 2014 – at least four years delay
relative to Decadal Survey schedule
2nd cohort NASA Missions
Mission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate
Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral LEO, Hyperspectral $300M
(HyspIRI) characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health SSO spectrometer
(Ecosystem, health, solid earth)
Active Sensing of CO2 (2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 column for LEO, Multifrequency $400M
Emissions over Nights, Days, climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, SSO laser
and Seasons (ASCENDS) ecosystem, health)
Surface Water/Ocean (4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, LEO, Ku-band radar $450M
Topography (SWOT) Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector- SSO Ku-band
Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean altimeter
Topography (Climate, health, water) Microwave
radiometer
Geostationary Coastal & Air (9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal GEO High spatial $550M
Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE) Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global resolution
Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & hyperspectral
Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol spectrometer
Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, Low spatial
weather) resolution
imaging
spectrometer
IR correlation
radiometer
Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air LEO, Backscatter lidar $800M
(ACE) Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious SSO Multiangle
Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice polarimeter
Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Doppler radar
Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate,
ecosystem, health, weather)
In definition phase; these missions will likely not be launched before 2020.
Likely to be revisited in next Decadal Survey
3rd cohort NASA Missions
Mission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate
Lidar Surface Topography (3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat LEO, Modified Laser $300M
(LIST) Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic SSO altimeter
Disease (Health, solid earth)
Precision & All-weather (5) All-weather temperature & humidity GEO Microwave array $450M
Temperature & Humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, spectrometer
(PATH) Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms &
Water-Borne Infectious Disease
Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold
Seasons (Health, water, weather)
Gravity Recovery & Climate (2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to LEO, Microwave or laser $450M
Experiment-II (GRACE-II) track large-scale water movement (Climate SSO ranging system
and water)
Snow & Cold Land Processes (1) Snow accumulation for fresh water LEO, Ku & X-band $500M
(SCLP) availability (Water) SSO radars
K & Ka-band
radiometers
Global Atmospheric (7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air LEO, UV spectrometer $600M
Composition Mission (GACM) Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem SSO IR spectrometer
Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Microwave limb
Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & sounder
Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather)
3-Dimensional Tropospheric (3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water LEO, Doppler lidar $650M
Winds from Space-based Lidar vapor transport (Health, water, weather) SSO
(3D-Winds: Demo)
Useful to think about them, but will be revisited in next Decadal Survey…
Current NASA ESD budgets do not allow
credible implementation of Decadal Survey
An Earth Science Initiative is needed… much more than anemic FY09 bump!
2500
Prior Commitments
2000
Decadal
FY06 $ Million
Survey
Wedge
1500
FY09
Request
1000 FY08
Request
500
0
12
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Fiscal Year
Atmospheric composition and the Decadal Survey
• Atmospheric composition was treated fairly by DS in framework of 2010-
2019 schedule; but delay means large gap between Aura and the next atm
comp mission
• Current ESD budgets do not allow credible implementation of the DS, even
allowing for delays. Implementation of DS would require return of ESD
budgets to 2000 levels (+33%). Making this happen will require political
intervention
• GEO-Cape and ACE are budget-busters (>$1B each) – need cost reductions
or they will never take off
• Important to work on mission definition for GEO-Cape, ACE, GACM because
they are good ideas and we need to maintain vitality of atm composition
research at NASA, but…
• Don’t view this DS as final word – we need to position ourselves for:
– opportunities with Venture-Class missions
– collaborations with international space partners (CEOS)
– the next Decadal Survey
FUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONS
Continuity of UV/Vis
(GOME-X series, VIIRS) Nadir+limb, UV-IR-mwave
for vertical resolution Aerosol mphysics and clouds
(GACM) (Glory, ACE)
Room for new ideas!
• MEO, L1, L2 orbits
• Lunar platform
Global CO2 • Microsatellites
(OCO, ASCENDS) •…
Geostationary
(GEO-CAPE, GEO-SCIA)
EARTH OBSERVATION FROM THE MOON
as enabled by the NASA Lunar Exploration Program (South Pole base in 2020)
12/20/2006
Images from
6/24/2006
Jay Herman South Pole
North Pole
PROS: • continuous full-disk view of the Earth
• global coverage, high observation density
• large telescope, antennas, power supplies
• stability of platform
• ease of maintenance
CONS:
• complicated viewing schedule, radiative transfer
• dust, moonquakes
Could be avoided with platform
• day/night heating differential
at Earth-Moon L1 point
