COMMERCE 291 - Applications of Statistics in Business

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COMMERCE 291 – Applications of Statistics in Business – 2006
COURSE OUTLINE

OBJECTIVES AND INTRODUCTION

The object of this course is to give you an understanding of how Statistics operates in Business
and Commerce. It will become clear how pervasive Statistics has become and how essential the
basic concepts are to modern business practice. You will learn thoroughly the basics of data
analysis and the fundamental notion of statistical inference. The statistics learned in this course
will provide the knowledge necessary for you to apply the basic techniques in a wide variety of
circumstances and, perhaps more importantly, will enable you to assess the legitimacy and
significance of the many and varied reports that you will come across during your career.

WEBCT

Course administration – announcements, assignments, past exams, course notes, and any other
teaching materials and information – will be done through WebCT. Please check the website
frequently. For questions about the website contact Ellen Fowler (ellen.fowler@sauder.ubc.ca).

INSTRUCTORS, SECTIONS, DAYS, TIMES, PLACES

Commerce 291 has 8 sections; all sections will follow the same schedule of topics, and will have
common examinations and assignments.

Instructor List by Section with Dates and Times
SEC DAYS TIME PLACE INSTRUCTOR (Surname in upper-case)
201 Tue/Thu 8:30-10:00 HA226 Benny MANTIN
202 Tue/Thu 10:00-11:30 HA226 Ellen FOWLER
203 Tue/Thu 2:30- 4:00 HA226 Ellen FOWLER
204 Tue/Thu 4:00- 5:30 HA413 Jonathan BERKOWITZ
205 Mon/Wed 8:30-10:00 HA326 Jonathan PATRICK
206 Mon/Wed 10:00-11:30 HA326 Jonathan PATRICK
207 Mon/Wed 2:30- 4:00 HA226 Tal RAVIV
208 Tue/Thu 2:30- 4:00 HA413 Jonathan BERKOWITZ

>>> Jonathan BERKOWITZ is the Course Coordinator

(Be careful: Two instructors have the same first name, but luckily different last names!)

An optional tutorial session has been scheduled for Thursdays from 1:00 to 2:30 in HA 412,
throughout the term. Students from all sections are welcome to drop in.

Your instructor is the instructor of the section in which you are officially registered. He or she is
your contact regarding the course, except for section changes. Make sure you know the number of
the section in which you are registered. Discuss any difficulties, problems, complaints, etc. with
your instructor.

Appropriate times to see your instructor are just after your COMM 291 class, during office hours,
or by appointment. Office hours will be announced in class and will be posted on the instructors'
office doors and on their individual WebCT web pages.

1
Every section will elect a Class Liaison Representative once the term begins. If you have
suggestions about classroom organization or procedures, or other relevant issues, please let the
representative know so he or she can discuss them with the instructor or course coordinator.

Instructors cannot authorize section changes, entries or drops. Use the on-line registration system,
or contact the Commerce Undergraduate Office. When all else fails, talk to your instructor.

CONTACT INFORMATION

Jonathan BERKOWITZ (Course Coordinator)
Office: HA 453
Telephone: On-campus -- 604-822-8431
Off-campus -- 604-263-1508
E-mail: jonathan.berkowitz@sauder.ubc.ca
Sections Taught: 204 (T Th 4:00-5:30, HA413) and 208 (T Th 2:30-4:00, HA413)
Office Hours: T Th 1:30-2:30 pm, or by appointment

Ellen FOWLER
Office: HA 453
Telephone: On-campus -- 604-822-8431
E-mail: ellen.fowler@sauder.ubc.ca
Sections Taught: 202 (T Th 10:00-11:30, HA226)
203 (T Th 2:30-4:00, HA226)
Office Hours: T Th 12:30-1:30; subject to revision

Benny MANTIN
Office: HA 673D
Telephone: On-campus – 604-822-4772
E-mail: benny.mantin@sauder.ubc.ca
Sections Taught: 201 (T Th 8:30-10:00, HA226)
Office Hours: TBA

Jonathan PATRICK
Office: HA 161
Telephone: On-campus -- 604-822-8830
E-mail: jonathan.patrick@sauder.ubc.ca
Sections Taught: 205 (M W 8:30-10:00, HA326)
206 (M W 10:00-11:30, HA326)
Office Hours: M W 1:00-2:00 pm (tentative)

Tal RAVIV
Office: HA 469
Telephone: On-campus – 604-822-8376
E-mail: tal.raviv@sauder.ubc.ca
Sections Taught: 207 (M W 2:30-4:00, HA226)
Office Hours: TBA

2
TEXTBOOK

There is one required textbook for the course:
Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition;
David S. Moore and George P. McCabe, W.H. Freeman, New York, 2006.

Important Note: This edition (the 5th) is a NEW edition of a textbook that has been used in this
course for many years. If you buy it new from the UBC Bookstore you get a Study Guide at no
extra charge.

We have used previous editions as the course text for many years, so there may be second-hand
copies of previous editions available. However, there is new material in the 5th edition. For
example:
 Half the exercises are new or revised. In addition, many of the exercises that were dropped
from third and fourth editions are available on the text CD as Supplementary Exercises.
 There are many new examples that have refreshed the presentation.
 Each chapter begins with Statistics in Practice, a brief first-person statement by a
professional who uses statistics on the job.
 There are Caution Notes to call attention to common errors and pitfalls.
 Challenge Exercises are identified
There are new Statistical Applets and Statistical Output Screens

The textbook is a modern, well-written and clear account of the issues facing anyone doing
practical statistics. It is easy to read, has broad coverage and is eminently suitable for self-study.
There are plenty of exercises based on some very interesting and realistic data series. Problem
formulation and solving are an important aspect of learning statistics. Statistics is not a spectator
sport; you have to be an active participant. It is therefore important that you regularly test yourself
using examples and problems available in the text. Note that many exam questions are often
based on textbook questions. A list of suggested questions will be posted elsewhere on our
WebCT site.

VIDEO MATERIALS (check WebCT for details)

The textbook is accompanied by a series of 26 videos, each of approximately one-half hour
duration. They were originally produced for the television program AGAINST ALL ODDS,
broadcast by PBS in the United States.

The videos cover the entire content of the course and really excel at putting statistics in an
operational context in a wide variety of applications. The presentation of the material is creative
and entertaining, and contains some very interesting interviews and graphical sequences. If you
happen to miss a particular lecture, or if you have difficulty with a particular topic, or if would like
further information on a particular topic make sure that you see the appropriate video(s).

The video material is kept in the David Lam Library in the Henry Angus Building. The videos may
be borrowed for individual viewing. Details of the list of videos can be found elsewhere on our
WebCT site.

3
EVALUATION

Your total COMM 291 mark is based on six (6) assignments, a midterm exam, and a final exam.
Your final aggregate mark will be computed as follows:

Assignments = 10% (the lowest mark of the 6 assignments will be dropped)
Midterm Exam = 35%
Final Exam = 55%
Total = 100%

Final marks are subject to review by the Course Coordinator, the Dean, and the University Senate.

INFORMATION ABOUT EXAMINATIONS

Midterm Examination

The midterm exam will be common to all sections and will be written by all sections on Thursday,
February 23, 2006 at 7:00-9:00 pm in four different classrooms, depending on your section
number (HA 104, HA 110, Chem 150, and Chem 250). Your instructor will tell you where to write.

It will cover all material up to and including Chapter 6. It will be “open book and notes”. Make sure
you have a reliable calculator and statistical tables (e.g. those in the text). Computers, cell phones,
and on-line connectivity are NOT allowed.

Final Examination

The final exam date and time will be set by the Registrar's Office and will be publicized as soon as
it is available.

The exam will be three hours in duration and will also be “open book and notes.” Make sure you
have a reliable calculator and statistical tables (e.g. those in the text). Computers, cell phones, and
on-line connectivity are NOT allowed. The exam will be cumulative; that is, it will cover all the
material in the course.

You will be asked to identify yourself at the exam. Bring your student ID card. If you cannot write
the final, contact your instructor and the Commerce Undergraduate Office.

The final is not in any particular format so expect both standard and multiple choice type
questions. The final will test your understanding of the material covered in class. Copies of
previous final exams will be posted on the web page.

4
INFORMATION ABOUT ASSIGNMENTS

There will be six assignments required for this course; only the top five marks will be used to
compute the final grade. The objective of the assignments is to make sure you are understanding
each section of the course material and not leaving it until exam preparation time.

Assignments will be posted on the WebCT web site on six Mondays throughout the term. They are
due at 1:00 pm usually on the second Friday following, except for the third assignment which is
due on the Monday after Midterm Break. Here is a detailed list of assignment dates:
Date Posted Date Due
Mon. Jan. 9 Fri. Jan. 20
Mon. Jan. 23 Fri. Feb. 3
Mon. Feb. 6 Mon. Feb. 20 (Note the different due date!)
Mon. Feb. 20 Fri. Mar. 3
Mon. Mar. 6 Fri. Mar 17
Mon. Mar. 20 Fri. Mar 31

Your solutions are to be handed in to the third floor mailboxes (the same ones used for C290).

NO LATE ASSIGNMENTS WILL BE ACCEPTED.
 The mailboxes will be cleared at 1:00 pm on the due date.
 Any assignments submitted after that time will not be marked.

A GUIDE TO ASSIGNMENTS AND EXAMS

The assignments and exams aim to test your understanding of the material, not just your
arithmetic skills. A correct answer displays the correct understanding of the problem. Numerically
correct answers do not necessarily receive full marks. This emphasizes the fact that the actual
numbers are usually not of interest. Your job is to display your understanding, not just to show you
can get the right numerical answer.

The best way to prepare for the exams is to do lots of problems. Statistics cannot be learned
simply by reading the material. Do as many problems as possible. Check the web page on
textbook information for a list of suggested problems.

When doing problems, set things out neatly and, above all, logically. Do not cross out. Make sure
your solutions make English sense. The correct answer to a problem is never just a number. If a
numerical answer is asked for, the correct answer must include a logical argument as to why the
number is correct. As you do problems you are training yourself for the exams. Whenever you
cannot do a certain exercise, you have a problem. Clear it up and move on.

Doing a problem does not consist of just reading the problem and thinking, "Yeah, I can do this".
Solve it and write it up logically. Experience has shown that a person who can't be bothered to
write up a problem in a neat and logical manner, in all likelihood cannot do the problem. Not being
able to write something up logically and neatly is usually indicative of basic misunderstandings and
misconceptions.

5
WEEK BY WEEK SCHEDULE

Note: There are a total of 25 lectures in Term 2. Since Term 2 begins on
Wednesday, January 4, 2006, Week 1 has only one class. All other weeks have two
classes; there are no statutory holidays until the Final Exam period.

Week & Dates Topics and Page Numbers

1 Jan. 4-5 Course info; What is Statistics? (Preface)
Types of data (p.4-6); Graphical displays (p.7-21)
(Text Section: 1.1)

2 Jan. 9-12 Graphical displays; Numerical summaries (p. 40-55)
(Text Section: 1.2)
>>> Assignment 1 posted

3 Jan. 16-19 Density curves and normal distribution (p. 64-80);
Scatterplots (p. 104-111); Correlation (p. 123-127);
Least-squares regression (p. 132-143)
(Text Sections: 1.3 (omit “normal quantile plots), 2.1, 2.2, 2.3)

4 Jan. 23-26 Cautions: reg. vs corr. (p.151-162); Causation (p. 173-178)
Design of experiments (p. 192-209); Sampling design (p. 218-225);
Preamble to statistical inference (p. 231-239)
(Text Sections: 2.4, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4)
>>> Assignment 2 posted
Note: Only a brief overview of Chapter 3 will be done in class;
students are responsible for learning the material on their own.)

5 Jan. 30- Mean/Variance of random variables (p. 291-304);
Feb. 2 Sampling dist. counts/prop. (p. 334-350);
Sampling dist. of mean (p.358-367),
Confidence intervals (p. 382 -394)
(Text Sections: 4.4(review only), 5.1 (omit “continuity
correction”, “binomial formula”); 5.2, 6.1)

6 Feb 6-9 Tests of significance (p 400-416), Use/abuse of tests
(p. 424-428), Power and types of error (p. 430-439)
(Text Sections: 6.2, 6.3,6 4 (omit “computation of power”)
>>> Assignment 3 posted

- Feb 13-17 MID-TERM BREAK - no classes!

7 Feb 20-23 Inference for one mean (p. 450-465, 468-470);
Comparing two means ( p. 485-503)
(Text Sections: 7.1 (omit “Inference for non-normal populations”,
but include “sign test”), 7.2, Omit Section 7.3)
>>> Assignment 4 posted

>>> MIDTERM EXAMINATION (Thursday, February 23, 7:00-9:00 pm)
– see Information about Examinations under the EVALUATION heading above

8 Feb. 27- Inference for one proportion (p.536-548);
Mar. 2 Comparing two proportions (p. 555-563)
(Text Sections: 8.1, 8.2)

6
9 Mar 6-9 Data analysis for two-way tables (p. 582-590);
Inference for two-way tables (p.591-598);
Chi-square computations (p. 600-608)
(Text Sections: 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, Omit Section 9.4)
>>> Assignment 5 posted

10 Mar 13-16 Inference for simple linear regression (p. 634-650)
(Text Sections: 10.1)

11 Mar 20-23 More on simple linear regression – ANOVA (p. 652-666);
Introduction to multiple regression
(Text Sections: 10.2)
>>> Assignment 6 posted

12 Mar 27-30 Inference for multiple regression and case study (p. 684-701)
(Text Sections: 11.1, 11.2)

13 Apr 3-6 One-way analysis of variance (p. 720-737)
Comparing means (p. 744 only)
(Text Sections: 12.1, 12.2 (omit “contrasts”)

NOTES:

1. Students are not responsible for sections entitled "Beyond the Basics".

2. Be sure to read the Introduction to each chapter; these are at most one page, but prepare you
for the rest of the chapter, and give useful definitions and terminology.

3. The Section Summaries are an excellent study resource! You may find it useful to make
photocopies of these pages to annotate and refer to for review and self-testing.

4. Do as many of the exercises as humanly possible, and then do more. A bold prediction: if you
do more than 80% of the exercises, your final grade will be more than 80% too!

5. Review sessions may be scheduled by each instructor at their discretion, on a mutually
convenient date after classes are over, in time to help you prepare for the final exam.

*** END ***