; Weather and the Calculated Risk: Exploiting Forecast Uncertainty for Operational Risk Management
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Weather and the Calculated Risk: Exploiting Forecast Uncertainty for Operational Risk Management

VIEWS: 10 PAGES: 14

Today's standard weather support lacks a description of forecast uncertainty, thus limiting the forecast's utility. However, significant scientific and technological advances now make it possible to overcome that limitation by applying weather-forecast uncertainty information to the Air Force's decision-making process. The authors employ cost-effective ensemble forecasting in two different scenarios to demonstrate how principles of operational risk management can yield marked improvements in combat capability (effectiveness) and conservation of resources (efficiency). [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

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