Trying to pick the low in the stock market may be more exciting than examining supply/demand fundamentals in coffee, but real investors are looking for returns -- not fun. Fortunately, worldwide coffee demand has remained relatively stable in recent years, increasing at a rate of less than 1% annually. This leaves the number crunching to the supply side. In addition to pricing in larger supply, the coffee market is entering what is typically a quiet time of year. The bulk of the weather risk occurs June through August, the Brazilian winter, and in the October flowering season. The 2008 crop has emerged in good shape from these tests and the next several months are typically mild in Brazil. That should mean steady to lower prices.
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