February 5th, 2008: Super Tuesday
Today is Super Tuesday and it is certainly shaping up as a battle royal – 24 states with primaries or caucuses with a combined total of 2,600 convention delegates at stake. Of course, today is more than just Super Tuesday or Tsunami Tuesday, it is also Mardi Gras. So, whose supporters will be dancing in the streets and whose will be despondently picking at their King Cake? We’ll know in only a few hours. But, as Barack Obama has noted, the results (especially on the Democratic side) could be more mixed than conclusive. Things to look for tonight: 1. Delegate Count. At the end of the day, it’s all about convention delegates. We noted in our first look at the election season how the delegate allocation schemes of the Republican (generally “winner take all”) and Democratic (generally proportional) primaries were critical. Well, we were more right than we knew. This could (probably will) go down to the wire on the Democratic side. If it does, the voters will be treated to newspaper inserts with arcane delegate apportionment rules by state. Between this primary season and the 2000 recount most American adults have received the equivalent of a refresher course in high school civics. 2. California. The Golden State is still America’s pioneering state. It ushered in the property tax revolt in the 1970’s that presaged the rise of Reagan style conservatism, predicted America’s increasing sensitivity to ecological issues, and drives American pop culture. It also happens to be the epicenter of Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown the race to be close on the Democratic side, with some data suggesting a late Obama surge. The race on the Republican side also looks close, with recent surveys suggesting a relatively tight race. Watch for Romney’s performance in this closed primary state. The closed primary should help him and hurt McCain since it does not allow Independents to cross over. Romney needs a win here. On the Democratic side, watch for Obama’s performance in the California primary among Latinos. 3. Huckabee and the Conservative Vote. It is no exaggeration to state that McCain’s path to the nomination has been the luckiest turn of events for any politician in recent memory. Vilified by most conservatives and written off long ago, McCain has had numerous lucky breaks. Two obvious heirs to the conservative mantle implode (Colorado Governor Bill Owens) or are defeated for re-election (George Allen (R-VA)). The Thompson boomlet fades. Huckabee upsets Romney in Iowa, throwing the Romney campaign out of its blitzkrieg strategy. Giuliani does poorly and leaves New Hampshire to focus on Florida. Governor Crist endorses McCain on the eve of the Florida primary. Giuliani quits, leaving the moderate Republican states in the Northeast to McCain. And finally, Huckabee stays in the race and divides the conservative vote so that McCain can slip by in red states. It is an amazing current of events. McCain is the political equivalent of a scratch-off lottery winner.
This last point regarding Huckabee and conservatives is important. If Huckabee dropped out, most of his votes would go to Romney (or, if you like, against McCain). Instead, Huckabee is staying in and dividing the conservative vote enough to give McCain a chance to win in states like Georgia. In Georgia, the Republican primary vote is split three ways with the polling showing McCain in a slight lead. If Huckabee dropped out, Romney would cruise to any easy win here. The same is true in Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri. Conservative may dislike McCain intensely for his opposition to the 2001 tax cuts, his support for campaign finance reform, and his immigration reform legislation (which many saw as amnesty), but with their vote divided, they cannot defeat him.
4. Georgia. On the Democratic side, this state is a very interesting test case for the Obama camp on African-American turnout. Using the South Carolina model, Obama could do even better than the polling in Georgia suggests (ahead 49% - 29% in recent polling). If Obama carries Georgia easily, it means that any southern state with a significant African-American population in the Democratic primary should go handily to him. This could be devastating to Clinton on February 12th where the so-called “Chesapeake primary” is held in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia – all with very large African-American populations. 6. Super Delegates. Count the number of times super delegates are mentioned over the next few days. I suspect that a LexisNexis search will show a huge surge on Wednesday and Thursday. As we mentioned in our kick-off coverage of the primaries, Democrats have so called “super delegates” at their convention – federal elected officials, party officials, Governors and past Democratic Presidents. These approximately 800 unpledged super delegates represent 20% of the total delegate pool of 4,049- nearly 40% of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination. As the fulcrum of power in a close nomination fight, the lobbying/courting of these delegates could be intense. If it comes down to super delegates, the losing side will ask why an otherwise egalitarian nominating system that relies on proportional representation coexists with the indirect system of super delegates.
5. Arizona. Recent polling has Clinton ahead of Obama in Arizona, but a late Obama surge could make this very close. More important will be the Latino vote in the Democratic primary. Past research has suggested that Clinton holds an edge with this group. Will she maintain that advantage?
Robert Moran is Senior Vice President at StrategyOne and manages StrategyOne’s Primary Research Group in Washington DC. Before joining StrategyOne, he was Vice President at Republican polling firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates and Senior Project Director at Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.