Chapter 19 Financing and Valuation by img20336

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									               Chapter 19
         Financing and Valuation
• Recall that there are three questions in
  corporate finance.
• The first regards what long-term
  investments the firm should make (the
  capital budgeting question).
• The second regards the use of debt (the
  capital structure question).
• This chapter is the nexus of these
  questions.                        1
        The 3 Methods for Valuation

1. After Tax WACC
2. Flow of Equity Method
3. Adjusted Present Value




                                      2
            Method 1
         After Tax WACC
         Tax Adjusted Formula




                        D        E
WACC  rD  (1  Tc )      rE  
                        V        V

                                    3
                    After Tax WACC
Example - Sangria Corporation

The firm has a marginal tax rate of 35%. The cost of equity is 12.4% and
the pretax cost of debt is 6%. Given the book and market value balance
sheets, what is the tax adjusted WACC?


                  Balance Sheet (Book Value, millions)
                  Assets            1,000       500    Debt
                                                500    Equity
                  Total assets      1,000      1,000 Total liabilities



                   Balance Sheet (Market Value, millions)
                   Assets            1,250       500      Debt
                                                 750      Equity
                   Total assets      1,250      1,250 Total liabilities

                                                                           4
                 After Tax WACC
Example - Sangria Corporation - continued


The company would like to invest in a perpetual
crushing machine with cash flows of $1.731
million per year pre-tax.
Given an initial investment of $12.5 million, what
is the value of the machine?




                                                     5
    Remember with WACC Approach !

• Since tax shield is accounted for in the
  cost of capital, calculate cash flows as if
  the company is all equity financed.
• WACC approach values the assets and
  operations of the company. If you are
  interested in equity value, do not forget to
  subtract the value of the company’s debt.


                                                 6
               Capital Budgeting
   Valuing a Business or Project
   • The value of a business or Project is usually
     computed as the discounted value of FCF out to
     a valuation horizon (H).
   • The valuation horizon is sometimes called the
     terminal value.

         FCF1       FCF2                 FCFH           PVH
PV                          ...               
     (1  wacc) (1  wacc)
               1           2
                                     (1  wacc) H
                                                    (1  wacc) H


                                                              7
                             Valuing a Business
     Example: Rio Corporation
                                      Latest year                  Forecast
                                                0      1      2       3         4          5          6
 1   Sales                                  83.6    89.5   95.8   102.5     106.6      110.8      115.2
 2   Cost of goods sold                      63.1   66.2   71.3    76.3      79.9       83.1         87
 3   EBITDA (1-2)                            20.5   23.3   24.4    26.1      26.6       27.7       28.2
 4   Depreciation                             3.3    9.9   10.6    11.3      11.8       12.3       12.7
 5   Profit before tax (EBIT) (3-4)          17.2   13.4   13.8    14.8      14.9       15.4       15.5
 6   Tax                                        6    4.7    4.8     5.2       5.2        5.4        5.4
 7   Profit after tax (5-6)                  11.2    8.7      9     9.6       9.7         10       10.1
 8   Investment in fixed assets                11   14.6   15.5    16.6        15       15.6       16.2
 9   Investment in working capital              1    0.5    0.8     0.9       0.5        0.6        0.6
10   Free cash flow (7+4-8-9)                 2.5    3.5    3.2     3.4       5.9        6.1          6

     PV Free cash flow, years 1-6          20.3                        113.4 (Horizon value in year 6)
     PV Horizon value                      67.6
     PV of company                         87.9     OCF=Profit After Tax + Depreciation




                                                                                                         8
                                Valuing a Business
       Example: Rio Corporation – continued - assumptions
Assumptions

Sales growth (percent)              6.7      7        7       7      4       4        4          3
                                   75.5     74     74.5    74.5     75      75     75.5         76
                                   13.3     13       13      13     13      13       13         13
                                   79.2     79       79      79     79      79       79         79
                                      5     14       14      14     14      14       14         14

Tax rate, percent                  35%
WACC                                9%
Long term growth forecast           3%


Fixed assets and working capital
                                      Capital spending

Gross fixed assets                   95   109.6   125.1   141.8   156.8   172.4   188.6       204.5
Less accumulated depreciation        29    38.9    49.5    60.8    72.6    84.9    97.6       110.7
Net fixed assets                     66    70.7    75.6    80.9    84.2    87.5      91        93.8
Depreciation                        3.3     9.9    10.6    11.3    11.8    12.3    12.7        13.1
Working capital                    11.1    11.6    12.4    13.3    13.9    14.4      15        15.4

                                           Investment in NWC
                                                                                          9
                Valuing a Business
Example: Rio Corporation – continued



FCF = Profit after tax + depreciation - investment in fixed assets
       - investment in working capital


FCF = 8.7 + 9.9 – (109.6 - 95.0) – (11.6 - 11.1) = $3.5 million

PV (FCF) = 3.5/(1.09) + 3.2/(1.09^2) + 3.4/(1.09^3) + 5.9/(1.09^4) + 6.1/(1.09^5)
                           + 6.0/(1.09^6) = 20.3


                                                                          10
           Valuing a Business
Example: Rio Corporation – continued

                        FCFH 1  6.8 
Horizon Value  PVH                         113.3
                        wacc  g  .09  .03 
                       1
PV(horizon value)           113.3  $67.6
                    1.096



PV(busines s)  PV(FCF)  PV(horizon value)
               20.3  67.6
               $87.9 million                       11
            Things to Consider

1. Don’t value mechanically – for terminal
   value it might be wise to use knowledge
   about mature firms in the industry.
2. Liquidation value.




                                             12
                      In Practice

How are costs of financing determined?
  –   What is included in debt?
  –   What if there are other securities?
  –   How do we determine debt return?
  –   How do we determine preferred stock return?
  –   What if project has a different leverage ratio?
  –   How do we determine equity return for a firm that
      is not yet traded, or (and) had a different leverage
      than what we observe in the stock market?


                                                         13
           Project with Different Leverage
     Perpetual Crusher project at 20% D/V
•    rD is constant at 6% (at all debt levels up to 40%)
•    At 40%: rE=12.4% ; Tc=35%  WACC = 9%


1.   Step 1: unlever the firm to find rA, the cost of capital
     (WACC) in an all equity firm.
2.   Step 2: Find rE when Debt is 20% (note D/E =
     0.2/0.8=25%)
3.   Step 3: Recalculate WACC




                                                                14
     Example : Calculating WACC
• World-Wide Enterprises (WWE) is planning to enter
  into a new line of business (widget industry)
• American Widgets (AW) is a firm in the widget industry
  with an estimated beta of 1.5.
• WWE has a D/E of 1/3, AW has a D/E of 2/3.
• Borrowing rate for WWE is10 %
  Borrowing rate for AW is 12 %
• Given: Market risk premium = 8.5 %, Rf = 8%, Tc= 40%
• What is the appropriate discount rate for WWE to use
  for its widget venture?


                                                     15
    Example : Calculating WACC

A four step procedure to calculate discount
rates:

1. Determining AW’s cost of Equity Capital (rE)
2. Determining AW’s Hypothetical All-Equity
   Cost of Capital. (rA)
3. Determining rE for WWE’s Widget Venture
4. Determining rWACC for WWE’s Widget
   Venture.
                                                  16
     Beta and Leverage: No Corp.Taxes
• In a world without corporate taxes, and with riskless
  corporate debt, it can be shown that the relationship
  between the beta of the unlevered firm (beta of assets)
  and the beta of levered equity is:
                               Equity
                     β Asset          β Equity
                               Asset

    In a world without corporate taxes, and with risky
     corporate debt, it can be shown that the relationship
     between the beta of the unlevered firm and the beta of
     levered equity is:
                       Debt             Equity
             β Asset         β Debt          β Equity
                       Asset            Asset                 17
Beta and Leverage: with Corp. Taxes
• In a world with corporate taxes, and riskless debt, it can
  be shown that the relationship between the beta of the
  unlevered firm and the beta of levered equity is:
                    Debt            
                 Equity  (1  TC )  β Asset
      βEquity  1                  
                                    



               Debt              
   Since 1  Equity  (1  TC )  must be more than 1 for a
                                 
                                 

  levered firm, it follows that     βEquity  β Asset

                                                                18
Beta and Leverage: with Corp. Taxes

• If the beta of the debt is non-zero, then:
                                                             D
          βEquity  β Asset  (1  TC )( β Asset  βDebt ) 
                                                             E




                                                                 19
                Method 2
         Flow to Equity Approach
• Discount the cash flow from the project to the
  equity holders of the levered firm at the cost of
  levered equity capital, rE.

• There are three steps in the FTE Approach:
   – Step One: Calculate the levered cash flows
   – Step Two: Calculate rE.
   – Step Three: Valuation of the levered cash
     flows at rE.
                                                      20
                  Flow to Equity
Sangria Corporation - continued
 The company would like to invest in a perpetual
 crushing machine with cash flows of $1.731
 million per year pre-tax. Given an initial
 investment of $12.5 million, what is the value of
 the machine?
Remember: rE = 12.4%, D=$5million (40% of
 project’s cost), rD = 6%, TC=35%.



                                                     21
               Method 2
         Adjusted Present Value
     APV = Base Case NPV+ PV Impact
1. Base Case = All equity finance NPV –
   Discount unlevered cashflow by
   unlevered cost of equity (rA), assuming
   not tax world.
2. PV Impact = all costs/benefits directly
   resulting from project
   - Discount all cost/benefits of financing
   according to their particular risk.
                                               22
                Adjusted Present Value
Sangria Corporation - continued
 The company would like to invest in a perpetual
 crushing machine with cash flows of $1.731
 million per year pre-tax. Given an initial
 investment of $12.5 million, what is the value of
 the machine?
Remember: rE = 12.4%, D=$5million (40% of
 project’s cost), rD = 6%, TC=35%.




                                                     23
  Side Effects in APV – Easy to Add Up

Example:
 Project A has an NPV of $150,000. In
 order to finance the project we must issue
 stock, with a brokerage cost of $200,000.
  Project B has a NPV of -$20,000. We can
 issue debt at 8% to finance the project.
 The new debt has a PV Tax Shield of
 $60,000.
   Summary: APV, FTE, and WACC
                          APV      WACC      FTE
Initial Investment        All      All       Equity Portion
Cash Flows                Unlevered Unlevered Levered
Discount Rates            rA       rWACC     rE
PV of financing effects   Yes      No        No

Which approach is best?
Use APV when the level of debt is constant
Use WACC and FTE when the debt ratio is constant
  – WACC is by far the most common
  – FTE is a reasonable choice for a highly levered firm
                                                          25
     A Comparison of the APV, FTE, and
           WACC Approaches
• All three approaches attempt the same task: valuation in
  the presence of debt financing.
• Guidelines:
   – Use WACC or FTE if the firm’s target debt-to-value
      ratio applies to the project over the life of the project.
   – Use the APV if the project’s level of debt is known
      over the life of the project.
• In the real world, the WACC is the most widely used
  approach by far.



                                                               26
          The Three Methods
1. The APV formula can be written as:
           
                          Additional
              UCFt                        Initial
  NPV                   effects of 
        t 1 (1  rA )
                       t
                                        investment
                              debt

2. The FTE formula can be written as:
           
               LCFt        Initial       Amount 
  NPV                    investment  borrowed 
                                                
        t 1 (1  rE )
                       t
                                                 
3. The WACC formula can be written as
                                Initial
                 UCFt
   NPV                     
         t 1 (1  r ACC )
                           t
                    W          investment             27
Some Practical Issues
1.   APV and NPV basically mean the same thing.
2.   The three approaches will most likely yield different
     NPVs.
3.   The APV is useful when special financing
     considerations are tied to the particular project.
4.   WACC most common – has an intuitive appeal, a
     project should be accepted if its rate of return is
     higher than the weighted average cost of capital.




                                                        28
               WACC Approach

WACC approach is the most widely used because of its
  relative simplicity.
WACC is only appropriate as a discount rate for a project
  when:

1. The project has similar systematic business risk as the
   firm.
2. The project and firm have the same debt capacity.
3. The debt to equity ratio is presumed to stay constant
   throughout the life of the project.



                                                            29
          Discounting Safe Cash Flows
              (for APV Approach)
Safe (risk-free) cash flows are discounted by the
  after tax borrowing rate rD(1-TC). This may be
  applied for issues such as subsidized loans and
  depreciation tax shields.
Example: The company is granted a one-year
  subsidized loan of $100k at 5%. The company’s
  borrowing rate is 13% and its tax rate 35%.
  What is the NPV of the loan?


                                                30
        PMM’s Project Valuation - APV

     Suppose PMM Inc. has an investment that costs
     $10,000,000 with expected EBIT (cash flows from
     operations) of $3,030,303 per year forever. The
     investment can be financed either with $10,000,000 in
     equity or with $5,000,000 of 10% debt and $5,000,000
     of internally generated (equity) cash flows. The
     discount rate on an all-equity-financed project with this
     kind of risk is 20%. The firm's marginal tax rate is 34%.
1.   Using the APV approach – find whether the project
     should be pursued if financed with equity only.
2.   Using the APV approach – find whether the project
     should be pursued if financed with 50% debt.

                                                            31
PMM’s Project Valuation with Subsidy

Extension 1 : Subsidized (or below-market-rate)
financing
Suppose a municipal government decides that the
investment is socially (and politically) desirable and
agrees to raise the $5,000,000 debt financing as a
municipal bond, or 'muni.' PPM Inc. can effectively
borrow $5,000,000 at the municipality's borrowing rate,
rD = 7%. (Interest income on a muni is exempt from
Federal tax, so the muni rate is typically below the rate
on corporate debt.)
Using APV approach – find the effect of this subsidy on
APV.

                                                            32
PMM’s Project Valuation with Subsidy

Extension 2 : Flotation Costs
When a company raises funds through external debt or
equity, it must incur flotation costs. Assume that the
municipal government no longer sponsored the project
and PPM Inc. must obtain $5,000,000 with new debt at
the market interest rate of 10%. Flotation costs are
12.5% of gross proceeds. Assume that the Canadian tax
code allows this expense to be amortized over five
years.
Using APV approach – find the effect of flotation costs
on APV.

                                                      33
PMM’s Project Valuation – Flow to Equity

  Suppose PMM Inc. has an investment that costs
  $10,000,000 with expected EBIT (cash flows from
  operations) of $3,030,303 per year forever. The
  investment can be financed with $5,000,000 of 10%
  debt and $5,000,000 of internally generated (equity)
  cash flows. The discount rate on an all-equity-financed
  project with this kind of risk is 20%. The firm's marginal
  tax rate is 34%. Assume D/E = 50/67.
  Using the Flow to equity approach find whether the
  project should be pursued if financed with 50% debt.


                                                          34
 PMM’s Project Valuation – WACC

Suppose PMM Inc. has an investment that costs
$10,000,000 with expected EBIT (cash flows from
operations) of $3,030,303 per year forever. The
investment can be financed with $5,000,000 of 10%
debt and $5,000,000 of internally generated (equity)
cash flows. The discount rate on an all-equity-financed
project with this kind of risk is 20%. The firm's marginal
tax rate is 34%. Assume D/E = 50/67.
Using the WACC approach find whether the project
should be pursued if financed with 50% debt.


                                                        35
Pearson Company Project Valuation
 Consider a project of the Pearson Company, the timing
 and size of the incremental after-tax cash flows for an
 all-equity firm are:
-$1,000     $125          $250          $375        $500

  0             1            2             3           4
 The unlevered cost of equity of Pearson is rA = 10%.
 The firm plans to finance the project with $600 of debt
 carrying an 8% interest. The overall debt to equity target
 ratio of the firm is 1.5 and the corporate tax rate is
 TC=40%. Calculate the NPV of the project according to
 (1) APV, (2) Flow to equity, (3) WACC.
                                                           36
   Pearson’s - Flows to Equity Approach

Switching from unlevered to levered cash flows.



                CF3 = $375 -28.80    CF4 = $500 -28.80 -600
          CF2 = $250 -28.80
    CF1 = $125-28.80
   -$400        $96.20     $221.20      $346.20    -$128.80

      0           1            2           3           4   37
     Example: Worldwide Trousers
Worldwide Trousers, Inc. is considering a $5 million
expansion of their existing business. The initial
expense will be depreciated straight-line over five
years to zero salvage value. The pretax salvage value
in year 5 will be $500,000. The project will generate
pretax earnings (EBDIT) of $1,500,000 per year, and
not change the risk level of the firm. The firm can
obtain a five-year $3,000,000 loan at 12.5% to
partially finance the project. If the project were
financed with all equity, the cost of capital would be
18%. The corporate tax rate is 34%, and the risk-free
rate is 4%.
The project will require a $100,000 investment in net
working capital. Calculate the NPV using the APV,
WACC, and flow to equity approaches.
                                                     38
  Relative Valuation

Valuing a company relative to
      another company



                                39
Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of valuation is
  a fundamental method.
• Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future cash
  flows.
• Ignores the current level of the stock market
  (industry).
• Appropriate for comparing investments across
  different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real
  estate, etc).
• In the long run, fundamental is the correct way of
  value any asset.

                                                  40
Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host of
  other “multiples”.
• Extremely popular with the press, CNBS, Stock brokers
• Used to value one stock against another.
• Can not compare value across different asset classes
  (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
• Can not answer the question is the “stock market over
  valued?”
• Can answer the question, “I want to buy a tech stock,
  which one should I buy?”
• Can answer the question, “Which one of these
  overpriced IPO’s is the best buy?”
                                                          41
Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
You are investing for your retirement. You
 are planning to take a buy and hold
 strategy which involves picking some fairly
 priced stocks and holding them for several
 years. Which valuation approach should
 you use?
Relative or fundamental?


                                           42
Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
You are a short term investor. You trade
 several times a week on your E-trade
 account, and rarely hold a stock for more
 than a month. Which valuation technique
 should you use?
Relative or fundamental?



                                             43
                  Relative Valuation
Prices can be standardized using a common variable such as earnings,
      cashflows, book value, or revenues.
-     Earnings Multiples
          •    Price/Earning ratio (PE) and variants
          •    Value/EBIT
          •    Value/EBDITA
          •    Value/Cashflow
          •    Enterprise value/EBDITA
-     Book Multiples
          •    Price/Book Value (of equity) PBV
-     Revenues
          •    Price/Sales per Share (PS)
          •    Enterprise Value/Sales per Share (EVS)
-     Industry Specific Variables (Price/kwh, Price per ton of steel, Price per
      click, Price per labor hour)

                                                                                  44
                            Multiples
Relative valuation relies on the use of multiples and a little
     algebra.
For example: house prices.
       House             Price            Sq ft           Price per sq ft
       A                 $ 110,000        1,700           $ 64.71
       B                 $ 120,000        1,725           $ 69.57
       C                 $ 96,000         1,500           $ 64.00
       D                 $ 99,000         1,550           $ 63.87
       E                 $ 105,000        1,605           $ 65.42
                                              Average     $65.51
  What is the price of a 1,650 sq ft house?
                                                                            45
  Answer: 1650 × 65.51 = $108,092
          Multiples can be misleading
To use a multiple intelegantly you must:
•    Know what are the fundamentals that determine the
     multiple.
•    Know how changes in these fundamentals change the
     multiple.
•    Know what the distribution of the multiple looks like.
•    Ensure that both the denominator and numerator
     represent claims to the same group
•    - OK: P/E – Price  equityholders, EPS  equityholders
•    - Not OK: P/EBIT – Price equityholders, EBIT  All claimants
•    Ensure that firms are comparable.



                                                                     46
               Price Earnings Ratios
PE – Market price per share / Earnings per share
There are a number of variants of the basic PE ratio in use.
     They are based on how the price and earnings are
     defined.

•    Price
     - current price
     - or average price for the year
•    Earnings
     - most recent financial year
     - trailing 12 months (Trailing PE)
     - forecasted eps (Forward PE)

                                                               47
    PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals

To understand the fundamental start with the
   basic equity discounted cash flow model.

•   With the dividend discounted model
                                 Div1
                           P0 
                                re  g

•   Dividing both sides by EPS
                    P0     Payout ratio  (1  g )
                         
                   EPS 0          re  g
                                                     48
   PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals

Holding all else equal
• higher growth firms will have a higher PE ratio
    than lower growth firms.
• higher risk firms will have a lower PE ratio
    than low risk firms.
• Firms with lower reinvestment needs will have
    a higher PE ratio than firms with higher
    reinvestment needs.
Of course, other things are difficult to hold equal
    since high growth firms, tend to have high risk
    and high reinvestment rates.

                                                  49
        150
        100   Graph PE ratio (Amir Rubin)
VW_PE


          50
              0




                  1975q1   1980q1   1985q1      1990q1   1995q1   2000q1   2005q1
                                             stata_qtr


                                                                                    50
      Is low (high) PE cheap (expensive)?


• A market strategist argues that stocks are
  over priced because the PE ratio today is
  too high relative to the average PE ratio
  across time. Do you agree?

• Yes
• No
• If you do not agree, what factor might
  explain the high PE ratio today?
                                               51
                    A Question


You are reading an equity research report on
  Informix, and the analyst claims that the stock is
  undervalued because its PE ratio is 9.71 while
  the average of the sector PE ratio is 35.51.
  Would you agree?
• Yes
• No
• Why or why not?



                                                   52
      Example: Valuing a firm using P/E ratios

• In an industry we identify 4 stocks which are similar
  to the stock we want to evaluate.
                                      Stock A   PE=14
                                      Stock B   PE=18
                                      Stock C   PE=24
                                      Stock D   PE=21

• The average PE = (14+18+24+21)/4=19.25
• Our firm has EPS of $2.10
• P/2.25=19.25 P=19.25*2.25=$40.425
• Note – do not include the stock to be valued in the
  average
• Also do not include firm with negative P/E ratios
                                                          53
                     Value/Cashflow

• PE ratios are from equityholders, while cash flow
  measures are the whole firm.
• Cash flow is from continuing operations before
  capital expenditure.
• FCF is uncommitted freely available cash flow
  after capital expenditure to maintain operations at
  the same economic level.
• FCFF (cash flow from assets) is free cash flow to
  total firm
             Value MVequity  MVdebt
                   
             FCFF            FCFF

• In the US in 1999, the mean value was 24.             54
                        Value/FCFF

• For a firm with a constant growth rate


          FCFF0 (1  g )
     V0 
           wacc  g
       V0    (1  g )
           
      FCFF0 wacc  g


• Therefore, the value/FCFF is a function of the
   – The cost of capital
   – The expected growth rate
                                                   55
         Example: Valuing using value/FCFF

•   Industry average is 20
•   Firm has FCFF of $2,500
•   Shares outstanding of 450
•   MV of debt = $30,000

• Using Value/FCFF=20
   value = FCFF*20
   MV equity + MV debt = FCFF*20
   MV equity = FCFF*20 – MV debt
   Price = (FCFF*20-MV debt)/Shares
      Price = ($2,500*20-$30,000)/450 = 44.44
                                                56
     Alternatives to FCFF : EBDITA and EBIT

• Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to
  use in multiples. They use modified versions.

• After tax operating income: EBIT (1-t)
• Pre tax operating income or EBIT
• EBDITA, which is earnings before interest, tax,
  depreciation and amortization.

            Value   MVequity  MVdebt
                  
           EBDITA       EBDITA


                                                    57
                Value/EBDITA multiple

• The no-cash version

         Value   MVequity  MVdebt  cash
               
        EBDITA          EBDITA


• When cash and marketable securities are netted
  out of the value, none of the income from the cash
  or securities should be reflected in the
  denominator.
• The no-cash version is often called “Enterprise
  Value”.

                                                       58
                    Enterprise Value
• EV = market value of equity + market value of debt – cash
  and marketable securities
• Many companies who have just conducted an IPOs have
  huge amount of cash – a “war chest”
• EV excludes this cash from value of the firm
• Cash +MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity
   MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity - Cash

For example: Nasdaq AWRE (did IPO in 1996)
Its 1996 cash was $31.1 million, Total assets = $40.1 million,
   Debt=0  EV=$9 million.

For young firms it is common to use EV instead of Value.
                                                           59
Reasons for increased use of Value/EBDITA

1. The multiple can be computed even for firms
   that are reporting net losses, since EBDITA
   are usually positive.
2. More appropriate than the PE ratio of high
   growth firms.
3. Allows for comparison across firms with
   different financial leverage.



                                                 60
            Price to Book Value Ratio

The measure of market value of equity to book value of
    equity.

                P MV equity
                 
                B BVequity




                                                         61
    Price Book Value Ratio: Stable Growth Firm
•     Going back to dividend discount model,         Div1
                                               P0 
                                                    re  g
•     Defining the return on equity (ROE)=EPS0/BV0 and realizing that
      div1=EPS0*payout ratio, the value of equity can be written as
                    BV0  ROE  payout ratio  (1  g )
               P0 
                                 re  g
                 P0         ROE  payout ratio  (1  g )
                     PVB 
                BV0                  re  g

•     If the return is based on expected earnings (next period)

                    P0         ROE  payout ratio
                        PVB 
                   BV0               re  g
                                                                        62
                     Price Sales Ratio
•   The ratio of market value of equity to the sales




                    P   MVequity
                      
                    S Total Revenue


•   Though the third most popular ration it has a fundamental
    problem.
    - the ratio is internally inconsistent.




                                                                63
                    Price Sales Ratio
•   Using the dividend discount model, we have
                                 Div1
                           P0 
                                re  g
•   Dividing both sides by sales per share and remembering that
                                  Earnings per share
                Profit margin 
                                    Sales per share
•   We get


         P0          Profit margin  payout ratio  (1  g )
               PS 
       sales0                       re  g


                                                                  64
           Price Sales Ratio and Profit Margin
•       The key determinant of price-sales ratio is profit margin.
•       A decline in profit margin has a twofold effect
    –      First, the reduction in profit margin reduces the price-sales ratio
           directly
    –      Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth and
           indirectly reduce price-sales ratio.


    Expected growth rate = retention rate * ROE
     retention ratio *(Net profit/sales)*( sales/book value of equity)

     retention ratio * (profit margin) * (sales/ BV of equity)




                                                                                 65
       Inconsistency in Price/Sales Ratio
•   Price is the value of equity
•   While sales accrue to the entire firm.
•   Enterprise to sales, however, is consistent.

             EV0     MV equity  MV debt - Cash
                   
            sales0             re  g

•   To value a firm using EV/S
•   Compute the average EV/S for comparable firms
•   EV of subject firm = average EV/S time subject’s firm projected
    sales
•   Market value = EV – market debt value + cash




                                                                      66
         Choosing between the Multiples
•    There are dozen of multiples
•    There are three choices
    – Use a simple average of the valuations obtained
       using a number of different multiples
    – Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained
       using a number of different multiples (one ratio may
       be more important than another)
    – Choose one of the multiples and base your
       valuation based on that multiple (usually the best
       way as you provide some insights why that multiple
       is important – remember car industry video
       segment)


                                                          67
          Real Options – Chapter 22

4 types of “Real Options”
1 - The opportunity to expand and make follow-up
  investments.
2 - The opportunity to “wait” and invest later.
3 - The opportunity to shrink or abandon a project.
4 - The opportunity to vary the mix of the firm’s
    output or production methods.

Value “Real Option” = NPV with option
                       - NPV w/o option
                                                  68
         Microcomputer Forecasts
Example – Mark I Microcomputer ($ millions)


                                                           Year
                                        1982     1983   1984      1985   1986    1987
After-tax operating cash flow (1)                 110    159       295     185       0
Capital investment (2)                     450      0       0        0       0       0
Increase in working capital (3)              0     50    100       100    -125    -125
Net cash flow (1)-(2)-(3)                 -450     60     59       195     310     125

NPV at 20% = - $46.45, or about -$46 million




                                                                                         69
          Microcomputer Forecasts
Your comment – If we do not launch the Mark I, it
will probably be too expensive to enter the micro
market later, when Apple and IBM are firmly
established. In other words, we lose the option to
produce the Mark II Microcomputer.

 Assumptions:
 1) The decision on Mark II will take place 3 years from now, in
    1985.
 2) The investment in Mark II is double that of Mark I, i.e., $900m.
 3) Forecasted cash flows are also doubled, with PV of $807m in
    1985, and $467m in 1982.
 4) Assume standard deviation of 35% for cashflow uncertainty.
 5) Annual riskfree rate is 10%.
                                                                       70
               Microcomputer Forecasts
     Example – Mark II Microcomputer ($ millions)
                           Forecasted cash flows from 1982
                                                       Year
                                       1982   ……….   1985     1986   1987   1988   1989        1990
After-tax operating cash flow                                  220    318    590    370           0
Increase in working capital                                    100    200    200   -250        -250
Net cash flow                                                  120    118    390    620         250
Present Value @ 20%                     467          807
Investment, PV @ 10%                    676          900
Forecasted NPV in 1985                               -93




            NPV(1982) =PV(inflows) -PV(investment)
                                = 467 – 676
                                = - $209 million


                                                                                          71
          Microcomputer Forecasts
  Example – Mark II Microcomputer (1985)
              Distribution of possible Present Values
Probability




                                                     Present value in 1985
         Expected value        Required investment
              ($807)                 ($900)                           72
          Restaurant Investment
You have negotiated a deal with a major restaurant chain to open one
   of its restaurants in your home town. The terms of the contract
   specify that you must open the restaurant either immediately or in
   exactly one year. If you do neither, you lose the right to open the
   restaurant. It will cost you $5 million to open the restaurant,
   whether you open it now or in one year. If you open the restaurant
   immediately, you expect to generate $600,000 in free cash flow the
   first year. While future cash flow vary with the consumer tastes,
   they are expected to grow at a rate of 2% per year. The risk free
   rate is 5% , the appropriate cost of capital for this investment is
   12%, and the return volatility of publicly traded comparable firms is
   40%.
a. What is the NPV of the project if you open today?
b. What is the NPV of the project if you delay the opening and wait the
   year?



                                                                      73
                  Option Valuation
There are two ways to calculate the value of an option.
1. Find the combination of stock and loan that replicates
    an investment in the option. Since the two strategies
    give identical payoffs in the future, they must sell for
    the same price today. This is basically how one
    derives the B&S formula.
2. Since option pricing does not depend on risk aversion
    of investors, we can pretend that all investors are
    indifferent to risk, work out the expected future value of
    the option in such a world, and discount it back at the
    risk-free rate to give the current value. This is called
    risk-neutral pricing.

                                                            74
                    Growth Option
StartUp Incorporated is a new company whose only asset
     is a patent on a new drug. If produced, the drug will
     generate certain profits of $1 million per year for the
     life of the patent, which is 17 years (after then,
     competition will drive profits to zero). It will cost $10
     million to produce the drug. Assume that the yield on a
     17 year risk free annuity is currently 8% per year.
a. What is the value of the patent?
b. Now assume interest rates will change in exactly one
     year. At that time, all risk-free interest rates in the
     economy will be either 10% per year or 5% per year,
     and then will remain at that level forever. What is the
     value of the patent?
                                                             75
                           Option to Wait
     Malted Herring Plant Valuation
                                                      The project costs $180, either
                           200 (NPV = 200-180 = 20)
                                                      now or later. Waiting means
                                                      loss of first year’s cash flows.
                                                      Assume risk free rate is 5%.


          Cash flow = 16         Cash flow = 25        Year 1 cash flows




                                        Cash flow = 250      PV of Year 2 on
Cash flow = 160                                              cash flows
Option value = 0                 Option value = 250-80=70


                                                                               76
             Option to Wait

Real Estate Development
Suppose you own a slot of vacant land
that can be used for a hotel or an office
building, but not for both. To convert a
hotel to an office, or an office to a hotel
involves high costs. You may be reluctant
to invest, even if both investments have
positive NPVs.

                                              77
                         Option to Wait

Example – Development option
           Cash flow
           Office Bldg



                           240
           Office Bldg
           NPV>0                   Wait


                           100


                                                     Cash flow
                                 100           240
                         NPV<0                       from hotel
                                 Hotel NPV>0




                                                                  78
                   Option to Abandon
Example - Abandon
  Mrs. Mulla gives you a non-retractable offer to buy your company for
  $150 mil at anytime within the next year. Given the following decision
  tree of possible outcomes, what is the value of the offer (i.e. the put
  option) and what is the most Mrs. Mulla could charge for the option?
  Assume a discount rate of 10%
        Year 0             Year 1            Year 2
                                             120 (.6)
                           100 (.6)
                                             90 (.4)
        NPV = 145
                                             70 (.6)
                           50 (.4)
                                             40 (.4)
                                                                            79
                  Option to Abandon
Example - Abandon
  Mrs. Mulla gives you a non-retractable offer to buy your company for
  $150 mil at anytime within the next year. Given the following decision
  tree of possible outcomes, what is the value of the offer (i.e. the put
  option) and what is the most Mrs. Mulla could charge for the option?
  Assume a 10% discount rate.

       Year 0             Year 1            Year 2
                                            120 (.6)
                          100 (.6)
                                            90 (.4)
       NPV = ?


                          150 (.4)

                                                                            80
           The Zircon Subductor Project
Information:
1)   The investment required is $12m and may last up to 10 years.
     Throughout the project life the company can sell the asset for a
     certain salvage value that depreciates over time. At year 10 it is
     worth $5.99m.
2)   Revenues: $2.5 million per year (at today’s prices). Revenues are
     proportional to price. Risk-adjusted rate is 9%.
3)   The fixed cost are constant at $700k per year and are risk fee.
     Risk free discount rate is 6%.
4)   NPV without abandonment option is negative at $ -1.108m.
5)   Prices of Subductor follow a random walk with a 20% standard
     deviation. Assuming log normal distribution this leads to a
     binomial tree of either 22% up or 82% down.




                                                                     81
              Option to Abandon

Example – Ms. East - Revenues
                                3.73


                  3.05


       2.50                     2.50



                  2.05


                                1.68


                                       82
                Option to Abandon
Solving Procedure:
1) Have the salvage value in each of the years 1-10 (e.g.,
   5% deprecation per year)
2) Start at far right (year t=10) and work recursively
   backwards to the present. At year 10, the project is
   valued at the ending salvage value.
3) Work backwards to year t-1, use risk neutral
   probabilities to calculate PV of continuation project.
4) If salvage value of year t-1> PV of continuation value,
   than the value at the nod=salvage value. If salvage
   value< PV of continuation project then value at nod =
   PV of continuation project.

                                                             83
         Temporary Abandonment

• Suppose you own an oil tanker and you
  charter your service. The tanker costs $5
  million a year to operate and produces
  $5.25 in revenue.
• What happens if tanker rates go down by
  10%, do you close the business
  immediately?


                                              84
           Tanker Example

Value of
Tanker                   Value in
                         operation


                                     Cost of
                                     reactivating




                                          Value if
           Mothballing                    mothballed
           costs




                                                    Tanker
                                                    Rates


                                                             85

								
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