TPP beta _issue 13_xlsm

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					                THE PIGSKIN PROGRAM
College Football Season Week 12                          Issue #13                                Friday, November 20, 2009
Last week's records:      P.O.T.W. (star terms) 3-6      Big games: 2-1              "Other Games": 4-5
This season's records: P.O.T.W. (star terms) 49-51 Big games: 17-13                  "Other Games": 67-82
Notes from the Editor:                                                                How to make investing adjustments - Scott
Well, the experiment with all the totals was mixed. I feel foolish about the                         Spreitzer
Tennessee at Ole Miss game. Both of those teams have been completely
unpredictable all year, and there's no way to predict what they will do
based upon their games against what I would consider great defenses in         We've had a very strange season in college football
                                                                               thus far. Handicappers have had to make serious
Alabama and South Carolina. Clemson and NC State was a slam dunk, but I
                                                                               adjustments in how they perceive matchups on the
was totally perplexed by Kansas St. They got blown out! Watch for them to      field. That's really going to become important as we
regroup this week!                                                             approach the conference championship games, the
Pick of the week #1        Texas A&M (-5) vs. Baylor (4*)                      bowls, and all the big BCS games in the postseason.
                                                                               I believe the single biggest factor shaping college
Texas A&M has been playing good game/bad game all freakin' year (check football this season is the fact that defenses have
the schedule!). Since the Oklahoma game was obviously a bad game, and largely figured out how to slow down the spread
                                                                               offense. Production is way down this year,
the Texas game will obviously be a bad game, I'm calling for a good one        particularly with the best teams in the six BCS
against the Bears... who showed some life by beating Missouri but then         conferences. There are still some mid-major teams
were promptly crushed by Texas. Baylor has nothing to play for, but A&M who are putting up big numbers vs. their very soft
is a victory away from bowl eligibility, a positive step forward for a program schedules. If you play a real schedule, you're
                                                                               production is down this year.
that I wouldn't say is "on the ropes" but definitely "out of breath in the
                                                                               For the past several seasons, success on the field
corner, looking for some sign of weakness in his opponent". Go Aggies!         was largely a product of the system a team was
                                                                               running. A spread offense with a smart quarterback
Pick of the week #2        Ohio St. (-11.5) at Michigan (3*)                   was going to score points. They were going to score
                                                                               points easily, seemingly at will! They were going to
The thing I love about rivalry games is that even heavily favored teams get "spread the wealth" amongst a lot of talented
jacked up for them. It's a classic "throw out the record books" game, one in players too. That was the whole point of the
which you can almost guarantee that the players come out and give it their "spread" attack. Defenses couldn't account for all
                                                                               the different weapons, so quarterbacks threw to
all. This is a huge help when picking a game like this, b/c normally I would
                                                                               whoever was most open or in best position to make
anticipate OSU struggling after an OT victory over Iowa last week, and sleep a big play. If everyone was covered, the
walking into Ann Arbor. But, since it's a rivalry game, they will be jacked. quarterbacks themselves would take off for big
Their players, especially on offense, are definitely 2 TDs better than         yardage. Those plays are way down this year too.
Michigan. Michigan's D has been making mobile QBs (like Illinois Juice         I talked a few weeks ago about how increased
                                                                               blitzing has helped slow down the spread. There are
Williams) look like gold this season, so look for Terrelle Pryor to have a big
                                                                               other contributing factors I'm seeing as well. I don't
day and for the Buckeyes to run roughshod in the 2nd half.                     want to go into those too much because Vegas
                                                                               oddsmakers haven't figured this out yet! The lines
Pick of the week #3        Florida Int'l at Florida UNDER 56 (2*)
                                                                               are still too high for the teams who used to pile up
Jeopardy style: [(Alex Tribec voice) Keith's prediction for this meaningless points in the spread offense. The totals are too high
game leading up to a crucial SEC title game. (Much too eager Jeopardy          too (except for the up tempo teams in mid major
                                                                               conferences, some of their totals are still too low!).
contestant) "What is Florida International won't score". CORRECT. "I'll        We have to handicap differently now when
take False Idols for $400, Alex". Answer: Rumored by some to be the best anticipating a matchup between two teams. What
collegiate football QB of all time, he has been playing Fullback for the       worked in 2008 can't possibly work in 2009 because
Florida Gators for a majority of the season while continuing to be revered the nature of the cat-and-mouse game between
                                                                               offenses and defenses has changed so much.
like a Greek god by the sports media. "Who is Timmy Tebow"... CORRECT!]
Don't over think this one, Florida scores 35 early, takes the starters out of
the game, and lies in wait for Bama in 2 weeks.
               THE PIGSKIN PROGRAM
THE Big Game -            Stanford (-7.5) vs. Cal                           No Top 25 Matchups this week… not a single one.
Well, you know there was NO WAY IN HECK I was picking TPP's Poopy Pants So I'll take a look at some of the big time Rivalry
                                                                            games, make some additional picks, and just
Team of the Year in their annual "Big Game". If you want to have a
                                                                            continue to come up with new gimmicks for
moment of happiness during your work day, go ahead and YouTube the clip picking the games. Note to CFA: Try to make sure
of the game between these teams in 1982, in which Cal defeated John         you schedule some big games in late November
Elway's Cardinal in electric fashion, weaving between Stanford band         too. Special thanks to
members to score the winning touchdown. Always brings a smile to my         for volunteering to run a piece of their column in
face! Anyways, this is a total trap game, with Stanford winning the past    my news letter this week. For other great
two games and probably running out of steam. Once again, I'll rely on the investing insights, check it out:
fact that this is a Rivalry game and that Stanford is too smart to lose to  aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=gaming/feist/spreit
possibly the biggest Jekyll and Hyde team in America, the Cal Bears. Jahvid zer_index.htm
Best isn't playing, and I think Cal struggles to keep up this game.         Thanks!

Big Games -               Kansas St (+16.5) at Nebraska                                     10 Team Parlay
This attempt at the reverse jinx is brought to you courtesy of someone who Texas A&M -5
hopes to travel to Arlington to watch Texas pound the Big 12 North champ OSU -11.5
on the first Saturday in December. That said, Nebraska hasn't beaten ANY Florida vs. Fla Int'l UNDER 56
conference team this year by 16.5, so why would a resilient, well coached
                                                                              Kansas State +16.5
Kansas State team be the first? All in all, this line doesn't make much sense
to me. Way too much has been put into the Missouri game last week,            Stanford -7.5
when K St. somehow, inexplicably, failed to score a single TD at home on      Wisconsin at Northwestern OVER 50.5
Senior Day. VERY STRANGE. It looks to be a game decided by defense.           Oklahoma -6.5 (Tech fading?)
Sadly, Michael Bishop is not walking through that door! Darren Sproles is
                                                                              UTEP -6.5 (Rice got their 1 win already)
not walking through that door. Eric Crouch is not walking through that
door! No matter, this one is for the Big 12 North, so you know where I'll be Uconn at Notre Dame OVER 57.5
on Saturday at 6:45 pm!                                                       Minnesota +10.5 (Stanzi is still out)
Big Games -               SMU (+3.5) at Marshall                                   Other games I like, just for the record
This pick goes out to my subscribers who follow the Houston Cougars, as I       Virginia at Clemson OVER 44.5
put the sweet reverse jinx on the Ponies of SMU (current C-USA west           La Tech at Fresno St. OVER 54
leaders!) who can lock up their first bowl game and first conference
                                                                              Penn St at Mich St UNDER 47.5
division title by taking care of the Thundering Herd on Saturday. While
                                                                              TCU at Wyoming OVER 47.5
Marshall IS playing for bowl eligibility, I think the Mustangs can accomplish
something truly phenomenal in June Jones' second season. I think the
game will be close, much like Marshall's recent home games against
Southern Miss and East Carolina (teams similar to SMU in terms of
performance this year). Getting the three and a half points here with a
team playing for the world is good value, so I'll ride these Mustangs all the
way to the Liberty Bowl!
*Much like any investment newsletter, you should consult your financial
advisor and never break the law in your home location. These picks are for
entertainment and educational purposes only.*

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