Table 11–2. COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (Calendar years) Projections 2004 GDP (billions of current dollars): CBO January Blue Chip Consensus January 2005 Budget Real GDP (chain-weighted): CBO January
1 2
2005 12,243 12,291 12,187
2006 12,814 12,929 12,796
2007 13,389 13,588 13,449
2008 14,023 14,292 14,151
11,629 11,660 11,612
4.8 4.6 4.4
1
4.2 3.7 3.6
3.1 3.3 3.4
2.7 3.1 3.3
2.8 3.2 3.2
Blue Chip Consensus January 2 2005 Budget Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: CBO January Blue Chip Consensus January 2 2005 Budget Consumer Price Index (all-urban): CBO January Blue Chip Consensus January 2005 Budget Unemployment rate: CBO January
3 2 1
1.1 1.4 1.2
1.1 1.6 1.3
1.5 1.8 1.5
1.8 1.9 1.7
1.9 2.0 2.0
1.6 1.7 1.4
1.7 2.1 1.5
2.0 2.3 1.8
2.2 2.4 2.1
2.2 2.4 2.4
5.8 5.8 5.6
5.3 5.4 5.4
5.0 5.4 5.2
5.1 5.3 5.1
5.2 5.3 5.1
Blue Chip Consensus January 2 2005 Budget Interest rates: 3 91-day Treasury bills: CBO January Blue Chip Consensus January 2005 Budget 10-year Treasury notes: CBO January
3 2
1.3 1.3 1.3
3.0 2.6 2.4
4.0 3.7 3.3
4.6 3.9 4.0
4.6 4.1 4.3
4.6 4.7 4.6
5.4 5.4 5.0
5.5 5.5 5.4
5.5 5.6 5.6
5.5 5.6 5.8
Blue Chip Consensus January 2 2005 Budget
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Aspen Publishers, Inc., Blue Chip Economic Indicators All forecasts adjusted to reflect December 2003 comprehensive revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts.
1 2 3
Year over year percent change. January 2004 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2004 and 2005; Blue Chip October 2003 long run extension for 2006 - 2009. Annual averages, percent.
Average, 2009 14,686 15,045 14,890 2004-09
2.8 3.2 3.1
3.4 3.5 3.5
1.9 2.0 2.0
1.5 1.8 1.6
2.2 2.4 2.5
2.0 2.2 2.0
5.2 5.2 5.1
5.3 5.4 5.3
4.6 4.1 4.4
3.7 3.3 3.3
5.5 5.6 5.8
5.3 5.4 5.4
unts.
006 - 2009.