Table 2–1. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (1) (Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions) Actual 2000 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Levels, dollar amounts in billions: Current dollars Real, chained (1996) dollars Chained price index (1996=100), annual average Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter: Current dollars Real, chained (1996) dollars Chained price index (1996=100) Percent change, year over year: Current dollars Real, chained (1996) dollars Chained price index (1996=100) 6.5 4.1 2.3 3.3 1.0 2.3 2.8 0.7 2.0 5.6 3.8 1.8 5.5 3.7 1.7 5.5 3.6 1.8 5.2 3.2 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 9,873 9,224 107.0 10,197 9,313 109.5 10,481 9,382 111.7 11,073 9,739 113.7 11,681 10,101 115.6 12,321 10,462 117.8 12,962 10,802 120.0 13,614 11,136 122.2 14,299 11,482 124.5 15,020 11,838 126.8 15,775 12,204 129.2 16,569 12,583 131.6 17,404 12,973 134.1 Projections 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5.3 2.8 2.4
1.9 -0.5 2.4
4.7 2.7 1.9
5.6 3.8 1.7
5.5 3.7 1.7
5.4 3.5 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
5.0 3.1 1.9
Incomes, billions of current dollars: Corporate profits before tax Wages and salaries Other taxable income (2) Consumer Price Index (all urban): (3) Level (1982–84=100), annual average Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter Percent change, year over year
845 4,837 2,236
706 5,100 2,297
733 5,246 2,331
848 5,519 2,458
931 5,818 2,547
1,023 6,115 2,650
1,090 6,415 2,750
1,136 6,730 2,839
1,188 7,058 2,937
1,251 7,401 3,042
1,312 7,763 3,152
1,354 8,147 3,265
1,419 8,549 3,386
172.3 3.4 3.4
177.2 2.0 2.9
180.5 2.4 1.8
184.5 2.2 2.2
188.7 2.3 2.3
193.2 2.4 2.4
197.8 2.4 2.4
202.6 2.4 2.4
207.4 2.4 2.4
212.4 2.3 2.4
217.3 2.3 2.3
222.3 2.3 2.3
227.4 2.3 2.3
Unemployment rate, civilian, percent: Fourth quarter level Annual average Federal pay raises, January, percent: Military (4) Civilian (5) Interest rates, percent: 91-day Treasury bills (6) 10-year Treasury notes
4.0 4.0
5.5 4.8
5.8 5.9
5.4 5.5
5.1 5.2
4.9 5.0
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.9 4.9
4.8 4.8
3.7 3.7
6.9 4.6
4.1 2.6
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4 3.4
5.8 6.0
3.4 5.0
2.2 5.1
3.5 5.1
4.0 5.1
4.3 5.1
4.3 5.2
4.3 5.2
4.3 5.2
4.3 5.2
4.3 5.3
4.3 5.3
4.3 5.3
(1) Based on information available as of late November 2001. (2) Rent, interest, dividend and proprietor's components of personal income. (3) Seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers. (4) Percentages apply to basic pay only; 2002 figure is average of various rank- and longevity-specific adjustments; adjustments for housing and subsistence allowances will be determined by the Secretary of Defense. (5) Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments. (6) Average rate, secondary market (bank discount basis).