Table 1-6. SENSITIVITY OF THE BUDGET TO ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (In billions of dollars) ___________________________________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Budget effect 1999 2000 2001 2002 ___________________________________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Real Growth and Employment Budgetary effects of 1 percent lower real GDP growth: For calendar year 1999 only: 1 Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -8.00 -17.20 -20.10 -20.90 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1.80 6.10 6.60 8.00 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Decrease in surplus (-)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -9.80 -23.30 -26.70 -28.90 Sustained during 1999-2004: 1 Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -8.00 -25.40 -46.10 -68.30 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1.80 8.00 14.70 23.10 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Decrease in surplus (-)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -9.80 -33.40 -60.90 -91.40 Sustained during 1999-2004, with no change in unemployment: Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -8.00 -25.40 -46.20 -68.40 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 0.20 1.00 2.80 5.70 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Decrease in surplus (-)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -8.20 -26.40 -49.00 -74.20 Inflation and Interest Rates Budgetary effects of 1 percentage point higher rate of: Inflation and interest rates during calendar year 1999 only: Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9.20 18.40 17.80 16.40 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5.60 12.90 10.30 9.20 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Increase in surplus (+)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3.60 5.60 7.50 7.20 Inflation and interest rates, sustained during 1999-2004: Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9.20 28.10 47.10 65.70 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5.60 18.60 29.30 38.10 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Increase in surplus (+)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3.60 9.50 17.80 27.60 Interest rates only, sustained during 1999-2004: Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1.30 3.30 4.10 4.40 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5.20 14.10 18.50 20.30 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Decrease in surplus (-)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. -3.90 -10.90 -14.40 -15.90Inflation only, sustained during 1999-2004: Receipts................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8.00 24.80 43.00 61.30 Outlays................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 0.50 4.70 11.30 18.70 ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ Increase in surplus (+)................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7.50 20.20 31.70 42.60 Interest Cost of Higher Federal Borrowing Outlay effect of a $50 billion reduction in the 1999 surplus........................................................................................................................1.20 2.40 2.50 2.70 ___________________________________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ ________ _ \1\ The unemployment rate is assumed to be 0.5 percentage point higher per 1.0 percent shortfall in the level ASSUMPTIONS________ _ ________ _ 2003 2004 ________ _ ________ _ -21.80 -22.70 9.70 11.50 ________ _ ________ _ -31.50 -34.20 -92.00 -117.50 33.30 45.70 ________ _ ________ _ -125.40 -163.30 -92.10 -117.60 10.00 15.70 ________ _ ________ _ -102.10 -133.30 17.20 18.10 9.00 8.30 ________ _ ________ _ 8.20 9.70 86.30 109.00 46.40 54.00 ________ _ ________ _ 39.90 55.00 4.80 5.10 21.60 22.20 ________ _ ________ _ -16.90 -17.1081.60 103.90 26.40 34.10 ________ _ ________ _ 55.20 69.70 2.90 3.00 ________ _ ________ _ shortfall in the level of real GDP.